Carlos Santos

Instituto Superior da Maia | ISMAI · Department of Business Management

Ordinary least squares estimation of an impulse-indicator coefficient is inconsistent, but its variance can be consistently estimated. Although the ratio of the inconsistent estimator to its standard error has a t-distribution, that test is inconsistent: one solution is to form an index of indicators. We provide Monte Carlo evidence that including...

This paper addresses the question of whether sovereign risk pricing was related to macroeconomic fundamentals, between 2007 and 2015, in a sample of OECD countries. The authors argue that the conflicting evidence in the literature is due to poor methodology options. The researchers innovate by modelling sovereign credit default swaps implied rating...

In this paper, the authors provide an explanation of the abnormal behavior of gold returns between the 1st of January 2008 and the 31st of December 2013. The authors suggest a behavioral finance foundation to the fact that gold returns exceed those of a wide range of other assets over this period. The approach rests on the safe haven (SH) motif for...

Sovereign credit default swaps (SCDSs) have been at the core of the Euro Area (EA) debt crisis, particularly in its periphery. Both EU politicians and a wide range of EU academics have asked for tighter regulation of these over-thecounter (OTC) derivatives, following similar pressures to the ones that had resulted from the 2008 financial crisis for...

A GARCH-with-variables model is used to assess volatility contagion in the Eurozone Debt Crisis. Credit Default Swaps on sovereign debt with 3 years maturity are used as a reference financial instrument, covering the sample period from 2008-2013. Daily data on Credit Default Swaps is used. We conclude that there is strong statistical evidence of vo...

Using an overlapping generations model, we argue that a decline in the savings rate, such as the one that has been observed in Portugal over the past 30 years, may be motivated by an increase in the discount factor. This is a standard result for macroeconomic models with agents that live for two periods. However, we innovate in proxying empirically...

In this paper, the first panel on sources of funding for Portuguese publicly owned museums is explored. There has been little work in this field worldwide, and none for Portugal. Evidence in this paper seems contrary to that relating to the UK and to the US. We find that incremental budgeting still plays a major role on the funding of Portuguese mu...

This chapter proposes a test for 'super exogeneity', a concept originally developed by Rob, David, and Jean-Francois Richard. The structure of the chapter is as follows. Section 2 reconsiders which shifts in vector autoregressions (VARs) are relatively detectable, and derives the implications for testing for breaks in conditional representations. S...

This article has three different motivations. Firstly, we wish to contribute to the debate on whether French inflation has been persistent since the mid-eighties. Empirical evidence in this domain has been mixed. We use the standard method of testing for breaks in the mean of the inflation series to conclude whether possible unit root findings are...

We investigate where, in the early eighties, did a change occur in French monetary policy. The novelty in our treatment of this subject is the use of the impulse saturation break test. The results clearly identify the adoption of the Franc Fort policy as the key change in the period. The resulting econometric model is congruent and reveals no signs...

Using the Bai-Perron test, we look for a shift in the conditional mean of an AR representation of Spanish CPI inflation over the period: 1978-2006. It is clear that Spain, as most OECD economies, experienced an inflation slowdown in the early eithgties, which can be related to some policy measures undertook by the government coming out of the 1982...

We prove weak exogeneity is an not an impossibility with an ADL structure in the marginal and in the conditional. We show that joint stationarity requirements are driving such common belief

We establish that under mild conditions, testing for the individual significance of an impulse indicator in the conditional model, selected on the basis of prior testing of its significance in the impulse saturated marginal model does not require bootstrapping critical values. Extensive Monte Carlo evidence shows that the real size of a joint F tes...

We consider selecting a regression model, using a variant of the general-to-specific algorithm in PcGets, when there are more variables than observations. We look at the special case where the variables are single impulse dummies, one defined for each observation. We show that this setting is unproblematic if tackled appropriately, and obtain the a...

Monte Carlo evidence is provided as to the efficiency of the impulse saturation estimator in a location-scale model with heavy-tailed distributions. Comparisons show that the IS estimator is always more efficient than the OLS and can even outperform the Method of Moments estimator in some instances.

In this paper, we build a model for the yield curve in Germany, from 1975 to 2001, and use it to test the Lucas Critique. We provide a first application of the new general-to-specific automatic model selection algorithm embodied in PcGets to term structure odeling, and use new super exogeneity tests.. Super exogeneity is rejected, so the model is v...

In this paper, we extend the impulse saturation algorithm to a class of dynamic models. We show that the procedure is still correctly sized for stationary AR(1) processes, independently of the number of splits used for sample partitions. We derive theoretical power when there is an additive outlier in the data, and present simulation evidence showi...

This study explores a new data set that contains information both on inputs and outputs for a sample of Portuguese secondary schools. An FDH reference technology is used to determine radial technical efficiency scores and slacks. Although it is known that there is no reason to assume convexity in the study of education efficiency frontiers, this is...