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Projected transition to electric vehicles in India and its impact
on stakeholders
B.K. Chaturvedi
a
,AtriNautiyal
a
,T.C.Kandpal
b
, Mohammed Yaqoot
a,
⁎
a
University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun, India
b
Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, India
abstractarticle info
Article history:
Received 31 July 2021
Revised 28 October 2021
Accepted 17 December 2021
Available online 31 December 2021
As electric vehicles share strong linkage with multiple sustainable development goals, India is aiming to achieve
30% electric vehicle (EV) share by year 2030 under the EV30@30 Campaign. The projected transition to EVs
would: a) reduce consumption of petroleum fuels currently used for road transportation; b) shift the consumer
demand from internalcombustion enginebased automobilesto EVs; and c) requireadditional electricity and net-
work of charging infrastructure for energizing EVs.These changes are goingto affect multiple stakeholders in dif-
ferent ways. This paper is a modest attempt to capture the projected transition to EVs in India and its impact on
the stakeholders.
Impact assessment of stakeholdersunder various scenarios highlight that the transition is going to be challenging
for central and state governments, petroleum sector and automobile industry whereas for electricity sector, it is
expected to open new investment and business opportunities. For smooth transition to EVs, this study proposes
synergy between stakeholders, revamping of automobile industry and introduction of green/pollution taxes on
additional products and services.
© 2021 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Electric vehicle
Transition
Impact
Stakeholders
Introduction
Adoptionof Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and subsequent
Paris Agreement in 2015 has made member countries to declare their
commitments to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and make
sustained efforts towards a cleaner and greener world (United
Nations, n.d.-a;United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change, n.d.). With about 24% share in GHG emissions from fuel com-
bustion, transportation sector is one of the major contributors to the
global emissions. Road transport vehicles (cars, trucks, buses and two-
and three-wheelers) account for roughly 74.5% of transportation sector
related GHG emissions (International Energy Agency, 2020a). Other av-
enues of transportation namely aviation, shipping, rail and pipeline con-
tribute 11.6%, 10.6%, 1.0% and 2.2% to transportation sector related GHG
emissions respectively (Ritchie,2020). Consideringthe amount of emis-
sions contributed by combustion of oil and gas in conventional road
transport motor vehicles and the suitability of clean technologies such
as electric vehicles (EVs) for road transport, many cities and countries
have started making transition to EVs.
EVs are of two types: full battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in
hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs). In addition to an electric motor, a PHEV
has a gasoline engine. During last few years, global market of EVs have
witnessed rapid growth due to multiple environmental, societal and
health benefits of EVs over internal combustion engines (ICEs)
(International Energy Agency, 2019). These benefits include:
a) Reduced air pollution and GHG emissions: EVs (both BEVs and
PHEVs) result in lesser life cycle emissions than conventional vehi-
cles because electricity is a comparatively cleaner energy source
than gasoline or diesel (International Energy Agency, 2017, 2019).
With zero tailpipe emissions, BEVs have significant potential to re-
duce air pollution and GHG emissions in surface transportation sec-
tor (International Energy Agency, 2017).
UsageofEVsincitiesandtownswouldleadtoreductioninpollution
and GHG emissions locally but there are concerns about source of
electricity and associated emissions near the power plants located in
areas far from cities and towns. If the electricity used for EV charging
is generated through combustion of fossil fuels such as coal or natural
gas, there would be emissions at the location of power plant contrib-
uting to climate change. However, if the electricity used for EV charg-
ing is sourced from renewable energy, there would be zero emissions
both at the place of EV usage and at the site of power generation.
Hence, it can be inferred that the impact of EVs on global pollution
and GHG emissions would be more pronounced if the electricity
used for EV charging is sourced from renewable energy.
b) Higher energy efficiency: With three-to-five times higher energy effi-
ciency than conventional ICE vehicles, EVs are going to make surface
Energy for Sustainable Development 66 (2022) 189–200
⁎Corresponding author.
E-mail address: myaqoot@gmail.com (M. Yaqoot).
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2021.12.006
0973-0826/© 2021 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Energy for Sustainable Development
transportation energy efficient (International Energy Agency, 2019).
c) Improved energy security: EVs would enable the transition of road
transportation from oil and gas (often imported from other countries)
to electricity generated from varied indigenous resources, substan-
tially reducing dependence on other countries for energy needs and
improving energy security.
d) Noise reduction: EVs have much lesser moving parts compared to
conventional ICE vehicles and thus they have much quieter operation
(International Energy Agency, 2017, 2019). Hence, the transition to
EVs would substantially reduce noise pollution, especially in urban
areas with higher concentration of vehicles. EVs have so quiet opera-
tion that the pedestrians often fail to notice its presence by sound.
To reduce pedestrian risk, European Union vehicle regulators have re-
cently mandated all EVs to have noise emitting device to alert nearby
pedestrians (BBC News, 2019).
e) Development of clean energy industry: Battery is an integral part of an
EV and mass adoption of EVs is dependent on rapid technological de-
velopments in batteries making them more efficient and cost-effec-
tive. Thus, global policy and institutional support to EVs would also
propel the growth of battery industry. Since energy storage batteries
are also critical for large-scale integration of variable renewable en-
ergy (solar and wind) to the grid, any improvement in battery
technology would facilitate clean energy transition. Hence, progress
in EV industry would expedite the development of clean energy
industry.
Considering the above merits, EVs are being promoted in many parts
of the world. The shift to EVs would reduce global air pollution and GHG
emissions, and their impact would be much more noticeable in cities
and towns that have larger concentration of road transport vehicles.
By facilitating reduction in air pollution and GHG emissions (more
noticeably in cities and urban communities) through replacement of
scarce petroleum fuels with diverse power generation sources
(including renewable energy sources), EVs would help in accomplish-
ment of several SDGs simultaneously. The SDGs that would be directly
addressed by EVs are Goal 3 (Good Health and Well-Being), Goal 7
(Affordable and Clean Energy), Goal 11 (Sustainable Cities and
Communities), Goal 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production)
and Goal 13 (Climate Action) (Fig. 1). Hence, with such strong linkage
to several SDGs, EVs have an important role to play in sustainable
development.
In some countries, the transition to EVs is at quite nascent stage.
However, in many big auto markets, EVs are experiencing accelerated
growth. In year 2019, there was 40% increase in global stock of electric
cars taking the total stock to around 7.2 million units (International
Energy Agency, 2020b). India, with a large and vibrant economy, has
been following global trend on transition to electric mobility. However,
compared to global leaders in EV industry, India is still at a nascent
stage. By the end of 2019, India reported a cumulative diffusion of
11,200 electric cars with 0.1% market share (International Energy
Agency, 2020b). With the launch of National E-Mobility Programme,
India aims to accelerate the diffusion of EVs in the country and propel
the share of EVs to more than 30% by 2030 (Press Information Bureau,
Government of India, 2018). This is a testimony of India's commitment
to EV30@30 Campaign through which member countries aim to achieve
cumulative goal of 30% EV sales by 2030 (only buses, trucks and cars to
be considered for attainment of goal). India has planned to achieve its
goal of 30% EV sales through ensuring cumulative sale of 31% electric
cars, 24% electric buses and 72% electric two-wheelers by 2030 (sale
of two-wheelers would not be considered for attainment of goal
under EV30@30) (International Energy Agency, 2019).
EVs
Goal 3: Good
Health and
Well Being
Goal 7:
Affordable
and Clean
Energy
Goal 11:
Sustainable
Cies and
Communies
Goal 12:
Responsible
Consumpon
and
Producon
Goal 13:
Climate
Acon
Fig. 1. Linkage of EVs with SDGs.
B.K. Chaturvedi, A. Nautiyal, T.C. Kandpal et al. Energy for Sustainable Development 66 (2022) 189–200
190
As road transportation sector is one of the major consumers of oil
and gas in India, the transition to electric mobility in India is going to
have a significant impact on oil and gas consumption in the country.
India is heavily dependent on imports for meeting its oil and gas
needs. During 2019–20, India fulfilled about 85% of its crude oil
(petroleum) consumption and 52.8% of its natural gas consumption
through imports (Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of
Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India, 2021). For petroleum
imports (including crude oil) and import of natural gas during 2019–20,
India spent $ 119.1 Billion and $ 9.5 Billion respectively (Petroleum
Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas,
Government of India, 2021). Thus, reduction in oil and gas consumption
through migration to electric mobility would reduceIndia's dependence
on imports, consequently improving energy security of the country.
However, as both federal and state governments in India generate a
large amount of revenue through various taxes and duties levied on
oil and gas (a total of ₹5,55,370 crore revenue was received by the gov-
ernments during 2019–20), the transition to electric mobility may ad-
versely affect their revenue receipts (Figs. 2-3)(Petroleum Planning
and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government
of India, 2021). With such contrasting impact on import bills and reve-
nue receipts, it appears that the transition to EVs in India may have
mixed impact on the economy of the country. In addition to federal
and state governments, the transition to EVs would affect several
other stakeholders. The transition is expected to: a) reduce oil and gas
consumption in road transportation; b) increase electricity consump-
tion due to charging of EVs; and c) replace ICE based vehicles with
EVs. Thus, prima facie it appears that the transition to EVs would have
significant impact on federal and state governments, petroleum sector,
electricity sector, automobile industry and consumers. This paper is a
modest attempt to study the projected transition to EVs in India and
its impact on various stakeholders.
Knowledge gap analysis and contribution
In this study, thematic analysis has been used for knowledge gap
analysis. For keywords ‘electric vehicle’,‘electric vehicle sustainable
development’,‘electric vehicle emissions’and ‘electric vehicle transition’,
literature was extracted from ScienceDirect. After screening for relevance
and duplication, 45 research papers were selected for literature review.
Following the protocol of thematic analysis, codes, categories and themes
were developed. As an output of the thematic analysis, research themes of
the available literature on EVs have been presented in Table 1.Itisquite
evident that most of the available literature on EVs are focused on cost-
benefit analysis, fleet management, consumer adoption and market ac-
ceptance, grid management, performance management, emissions and
environmental management, charging and energy storage, policy and in-
stitutional support. As the transition to EVs would affect multiple stake-
holders, there seems to be knowledge gap with respect to information
on transition from the perspective of multiple stakeholders.
The contribution of this study is that it aims to bridge the knowledge
gap by assessing the projected transition to EVs in India and itsexpected
impact on various stakeholders. As India is a developing economy with
huge population and giant vehicle market, the findings of this study
may hold important lessons for other countries as well.
Trends in global EV market and status of EV industry in India
As per Global EV Outlook 2020, about 40% increase in global stock of
electric cars was registered during the year 2019, taking the total stock
to 7.2 million units (International Energy Agency, 2020b). China
maintained the leadership position in global electric car stock with
3.4 million electric cars and 47% share. Meanwhile, with 1.7 million
and 1.5 million electric cars, Europe and USA registered 25% and 20%
share in global stock. Globally, 2.1 million electric cars were sold during
2019 in which China, Europe and USA registered a sale of 1.06 million,
0.56 million and 0.33 million electric cars. Among the new electric
cars sold during the year 2019, BEVs had a share of 67% and PHEVs
the remaining 33%. The share of BEVs in annual electric car sales has
been consistently on rise acrossthe world, primarily due to domination
of BEVs in China with a share of 79%. The global market share of electric
cars registered an all-time high of 2.6% during 2019, from 1.5% in 2017
and 2.4% in 2018. Most of the countries having higher market shares
of electric cars are in Europe with Norway being at the top with 55.9%
followed by Netherlands and Sweden with 15.1% and 11.4% market
shares respectively (International Energy Agency, 2020b).
Globally, market prospects for EV industry seem quite bright. Several
big auto markets joined as signatories to EV30@30 Campaign that was
launched at the Eighth Clean Energy Ministerial in 2017. Under EV30@
30 Campaign, the signatory countries namely Canada, China, Finland,
France, India, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and United
Kingdom aim to collectively reach 30% market share for electric vehicles
(excluding two/three-wheelers) by 2030. Currently, the global market
share of electric cars is around 2.6% (International Energy Agency,
2020b). So, the efforts towards attainment of a cumulative target of
30% market share in the signatory countries of EV30@30 by year 2030
Price charged to
retailers/dealers, 29.71
Excise Duty collected
by Central
Government, 32.98
Retailer's commission,
3.69
Value Added Tax
collected by State
Government, 19.92
Fig. 2. Price buildup of petrol at Delhi on 1st February 2021 in ₹/litre (Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India, 2021).
B.K. Chaturvedi, A. Nautiyal, T.C. Kandpal et al. Energy for Sustainable Development 66 (2022) 189–200
191
is expected to create huge business opportunities for all stakeholders of
global EV industry.
India has also been following global trend on transition to electric mo-
bility. For promotion of electric vehicles in India, policymakers launched a
scheme titled Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of (Hybrid &) Electric
Vehicles in India (FAME-India) in 2015. The Phase-I of FAME-India
scheme was initially applicable for two years commencing from April
1st, 2015 that later got extended up to March 31st, 2019. Phase-I of
FAME-India, with a budget of ₹895 crore focused on four areas for devel-
opment of EV market in the country: technology development, demand
creation, charging infrastructure and pilot projects (Press Information
Bureau, Government of India, 2019a). After the completion of Phase-I of
FAME-India, Phase-II has been implemented from April 1st, 2019 with a
coverage period of 3 years and a budgetary support of ₹10,000 crore.
Much like Phase-I, Phase-II is focused on demand creation (through cap-
ital subsidy), charging infrastructure and publicity/awareness campaigns
for the development of EV industry in India (Press Information Bureau,
Government of India, 2019a). In spite of the initiatives for promotion of
EVs in India, the transition to electric mobility in the country is still at
an early stage. By the end of 2019, India has reported a cumulative diffu-
sion of 11,200 electric cars with 0.1% market share (International Energy
Agency, 2020b). However, there are about 1.26 million electric two-
wheelers and 1.5 million electric three-wheelers in India (Bhatia, 2020;
Wadhwa, 2019). With the launch of National E-Mobility Programme in
2018, India aims to accelerate the diffusion of EVs in the country and pro-
pel the share of EVs to more than 30% by 2030 (Press Information Bureau,
Government of India, 2018). This is a testimony of India's commitment to
EV30@30 Campaign through which member countries aim to achieve
cumulative goal of 30% EV sales by 2030 (only buses, trucks and cars to
be considered for attainment of goal). India has planned to achieve its
goal of 30% EV sales through ensuring cumulative sale of 31% electric
cars, 24% electric buses and 72% electric two-wheelers by 2030 (sale of
two-wheelers would not be considered for attainment of goal under
EV30@30) (International Energy Agency, 2019). Recently, National
Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) 2020 was launched providing
the vision and roadmap for accelerated adoption of EVs and their
manufacturing in the country (Press Information Bureau, Government
of India, 2019b).
During last few years, many states in India such as Delhi, Telengana,
Gujarat, Karnataka, etc. have declared their EV policy. Upfront capital
subsidies, exemption from road tax and registration fee, and fiscal sup-
port for charging infrastructure and charging services are common
among these state EV policies (Telangana State Renewable Energy
Development Corporation Ltd., Government of Telengana, India, 2021;
Transport Department, Government of National Capital Territory of
Delhi, India, 2020). In addition, federal government of India has ex-
tended income tax benefits to individual taxpayers on purchase of EVs
(Ministry of Finance, Government of India, n.d.-a). For all startups (in-
cluding startups related to EV industry and energy storage batteries),
the federal government has extended tax holiday till 31st March 2022
(Ministry of Finance, Government of India, n.d.-b). All these initiatives
have started creating a favorable environment for adoption of EVs in
India and theEV industry is expected to follow sustained growth trajec-
tory in India.
Price charged to
retailers/dealers, 30.89
Excise Duty collected
by Central
Government, 31.83
Retailer's commission,
2.54
Value Added Tax
collected by State
Government, 11.22
Fig. 3. Price buildup of diesel at Delhi on 1st February 2021 in ₹/litre (Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleumand Natural Gas, Governmentof India, 2021).
Table 1
Research themes of the available literature on EVs.
Literature Research theme
(Lopez et al., 2021;Wang, Liu, Fu, & Li, 2015) Cost-benefit analysis
(Al-dal'ain & Celebi, 2021;Xu, Wu, & Tan, 2021) Fleet management
(Berkeley, Bailey, Jones, & Jarvis, 2017;Goel, Sharma, & Rathore, 2021;Huang, Lin, Zhou, Lim, & Chen, 2021;Kumar & Alok, 2020;Lee &
Brown, 2021;Lin & Sovacool, 2020;Osieczko, Zimon, Płaczek, & Prokopiuk, 2021;Wang, Cao, & Zhang, 2021;Zhuge, Dong, Wei, & Shao,
2021)
Consumer adoption and market
acceptance
(Fernández, 2021;Tan, Chen, Zheng, & Huang, 2022;Torcat et al., 2021) Grid management
(Bai & Liu, 2021;Nguyen, Walker, & Zhang, 2021;Wang, Lou, Xu, Fang, & Tan, 2021;Xiao, Ruan, Yang, Walker, & Zhang, 2021) Performance management
(Alimujiang & Jiang, 2020;Austmann & Vigne, 2021;Franzò & Nasca, 2021;Gan, Wang, Lu, & Kelly, 2021;Lazzeroni, Cirimele, & Canova,
2021;Liu, Xu, Sadia, & Wang, 2021;Ou et al., 2021;Shafique, Azam, Rafiq, & Luo, 2021;Xu, Sharif, Shahbaz, & Dong, 2021;Xue, Lin, &
Tsunemi, 2021)
Emissions and environmental
management
(Buresh, Apperley, & Booysen, 2020;Cen & Jiang, 2020;Cen, Li, & Jiang, 2018;Dižo et al., 2021;He et al., 2021;Skeete, Wells, Dong, Heidrich,
& Harper, 2020;Tarroja & Hittinger, 2021;Wang, Wang, & Yang, 2020)
Charging and energy storage
(Azarafshar & Vermeulen, 2020;Gong, Ardeshiri, & Rashidi, 2020;Guo & Kontou, 2021;Guo, Li, Peng, & Zhang, 2021;Liu, Sun, Zheng, &
Huang, 2021;Wu et al., 2021)
Policy and institutional support
B.K. Chaturvedi, A. Nautiyal, T.C. Kandpal et al. Energy for Sustainable Development 66 (2022) 189–200
192
Fuels energizing road transportation in India
Globally, road transportation sector is one of the major consumers of
oil and gas. As per Statistical Year Book India 2018 (Ministry of Statistics
and Programme Implementation, Government of India, 2018)thathas
reported the latest data available on number of road transport vehicles
in India, the country has 23,00,30,598 registered vehicles including
13,84,740 buses, 16,89,75,300 two-wheelers, 2,79,76,199 cars (private
and commercial), 22,65,488 jeeps, 1,69,08,166light and heavy commer-
cial vehicles, etc. With India at a very early stage of EV adoption, most of
the road transport vehicles in the country are running on fossil fuels (oil
and gas).
The consumption pattern of energy resources used for road trans-
portation in India has been presented in Table 2. It is important to
note that Table 2 has been developed for this study by collecting data
from different sources and for some cases related to unavailability of
specific data, inferences have been made in light of appropriate refer-
ences. In the table, data for energy consumption in road transportation
has been presented for lastfive years to highlight thatthe fuel consump-
tion pattern for road transportation in India has not changedmuch with
time. Petrol/gasoline, diesel, natural gas and LPG are the energy re-
sources used for road transportation in India (Table 2). As per a study
conducted by M/s Nielsen (India) Pvt. Ltd. for Petroleum Planning and
Analysis Cell (PPAC) of Petroleum Ministry (Press Information Bureau,
Government of India, 2014), 99.61% of petrol is consumed by roadtrans-
port sector in India through two-wheelers, three-wheelers, cars and
utility vehicles. In all annual reports published by Ministry of Petroleum
and Natural Gas, Government of India, most of the diesel consumed in
India has been put under non-specified or retail/reseller category
without indicating their end-use. However, as per the study conducted
by M/s Nielsen (India) Pvt. Ltd. for Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell
(PPAC) of Petroleum Ministry (Press Information Bureau, Government
of India, 2014), 70% of diesel consumed in Indiais used in transportation
sector with road transport (passenger and commercial vehicles) using
66.28%, railways 3.24% and aviation/shipping 0.48%. Based on the
study report (Press Information Bureau, Government of India, 2014),
for those years during which segregated data for petrol and diesel con-
sumption for road transport is not available, this study considers 99.61%
and 66.28% of total annual petrol and diesel consumption for energizing
road transport in India respectively (Table 2).
Apart from huge consumption of petrol and diesel for road transpor-
tation in India, natural gas and LPG are also used to energize road trans-
port vehicles but to a much smaller extent (Table 2). However, there is
hardly any electricity consumption data for road transportation in India
(Table 2). This is quite interesting as the country has significant
numbers of electric vehicles (11,200 cars, 15,00,000 three-wheelers
and 6,00,000 two-wheelers) (International Energy Agency, 2020b).
This could be due to the fact there is hardly any network of commercial
charging stations for electric vehicles in India and mostof these EVs are
charged at homes or offices (International Energy Agency, 2020b). Con-
sequently, electricity consumption for charging of EVs is accounted in
the energy bills of those homes or offices without any segregation.
Thus, there is hardly any segregated data regarding consumption of
electricity for road transport in India. However, electricity as an energy
source for road transport has been included in Table 2 to put usage of
EVs for road transport in perspective.
From Table 2, it is quite evident that consumption of petrol and die-
sel in India is largely driven by road transport sector. Natural gas also
plays a significant partin road transport with about 15% of its consump-
tion powering road transport vehicles. Thus, with such large number of
motor vehicles used for road transport in India and their heavy depen-
dence on petroleum sector, the transition towards electric mobility is
going to affect the consumption of petroleum fuels in the country, even-
tually affecting the economics of its petroleum sector.
India is heavily dependent on imports for fulfilling its petroleum sec-
tor needs. During year 2019–20, India imported around 85% of its crude
oil (petroleum) consumption and 52.8% of its natural gas consumption
(Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and
Natural Gas, Government of India, 2021). To protect the consumers
and oil marketing companies from uncertainties in international oil
and gas market (variations in international oil and gas prices and cur-
rency exchanges rates), Government of India used to offer subsidies to
consumers and under-recoveries to oil companies. Under-recoveries
to the oil companies are indirect subsidies that are compensated by
two mechanisms: a) cash assistance is provided to the oil companies
by the government; b) government devises a burden-sharing formula
varying from year to year by which oil exploration companies and oil
marketing companies share the under-recoveries (Yaqoot, Diwan, &
Kandpal, 2015). Both the subsidies and under-recoveries were huge
burden on the government finances and in some cases encouraged inef-
ficient operations. Realizing the same, Government of India deregulated
the pricing of petrol in 2010 and diesel in 2014 (International Energy
Agency, 2020c). This allowed oil marketing companies to determine
the prices of petrol and diesel in line with international market prices
and revise them fortnightly. The deregulationof petrol and diesel prices
resulted in the reduction of their associated subsidies and under-
recoveries to zero (Table 3). This was extended further and from June
16, 2017 there has been dynamic pricing in which prices for petrol
and diesel are revised on a daily basis that allows capturing almost
every variation in global oil prices so that the same can be transmitted
Table 2
Consumption pattern of energy sources used for roadtransport in India(Central StatisticsOffice, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India, 2015, 2016,
2017, 2018, 2019, 2020;Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India, 2016, 2018, 2021).
Energy source Parameter 2014–15
a
2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19
Petrol/gasoline Total consumption ('000 metric tonne) 19,075 21,847 23,765 26,174 28,284
Consumption for road transport ('000 metric tonne) DNA DNA DNA 26,174 28,284
Percentage of consumption used for road transport (%) 99.61
b
99.61
b
99.61
b
100 100
Diesel Total consumption ('000 metric tonne) 69,781 75,054 76,476 81,597 84,126
Percentage of consumption used for road transport (%) 66.28
b
66.28
b
66.28
b
66.28
b
66.28
b
Natural gas Total consumption (MMSCM) 51,300 52,517 55,697 59,170 60,798
Consumption for road transport (MMSCM) 5416 5464 7350 8585 9206
Percentage of consumption used for road transport (%) 10.56 10.40 13.20 14.51 15.14
LPG Total consumption ('000 metric tonne) 18,000 19,623 21,608 23,342 24,907
Consumption for road transport ('000 metric tonne) 165 172 168 185 181
Percentage of consumption used for road transport (%) 0.92 0.88 0.78 0.79 0.73
Electricity Total consumption (GWh) 948,522 1,001,191 1,061,183 1,123,427 1,158,310
Consumption for road transport ('000 GWh) 0 0 0 0 0
Percentage of consumption used for road transport (%) 0 0 0 0 0
DNA –data not available.
a
Financial year followed in India e.g. 2014–15 implies 1st April 2014 –31st March 2015.
b
Data as per the study conducted by M/s Nielsen (India) Pvt. Ltd. for Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) of Petroleum Ministry (Press Information Bureau, Government of
India, 2014).
B.K. Chaturvedi, A. Nautiyal, T.C. Kandpal et al. Energy for Sustainable Development 66 (2022) 189–200
193
to the consumers (International Energy Agency, 2020c). Thus, from
Table 3,itisquiteclearthatfromyear2015–16, there are no subsidies
and under-recoveries on account of petrol and diesel consumption in
India. This indicates that even though Government of India's dollar re-
serves get impacted due to high import bill but the value is recovered
fully through dynamic pricing of petrol and diesel. Table 3 also indicates
that though there are subsidies/under-recoveries for natural gas appli-
cable only to north-eastern part of India, it is less than 1% of the total
revenue receipts during last several years and hence insignificant. So,
like petrol and diesel, natural gas is also almost free of subsidies/
under-recoveries in India. Any decrease in consumption of petrol, diesel
or natural gas is surely going to reduce India's import bills. However, as
there arealmost zero subsidies/under-recoveries associated with petrol,
diesel and natural gas in India since 2015–16 due to deregulation, al-
most all import bill expenditures are recovered through sale of these
fuels. Hence, apart from improving energy security and maintaining
dollar reserves, any reduction in consumption of these fuels and subse-
quent decrease in import bills is not going to bringany monetary gain to
Government of India. Federal (Central) and State governments in India
earn huge revenue from sale of petrol, diesel and natural gas through
taxes, duties, royalty, cess, etc. (Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell,
Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India, 2016;
Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and
Natural Gas, Government of India, 2018;Petroleum Planning and
Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of
India, 2021). Table 3 highlights the revenue receipts of Central and
State governments in India through sale of petrol, diesel and natural
gas. Central Government of India earns about 18–20% of its total reve-
nue receipts from petroleum sector whereas the state governments
earn about 7–8% of its total revenue receipts from the same. Thus,
both central and state governments in India earn significant revenue
from sale of petrol, diesel and natural gas, and any reduction in their
consumption (and sale) due to increased adoption of EVs is going to
have significant economic impact on India.
Impact of transition to EVs on various stakeholders
In this study, logical problem analysis tool has been used for identi-
fication of stakeholders in transition to EVs in India. Logical problem
analysis tool has been widely used in similar studies (Mittal, Ahlgren,
&Shukla,2018). The transition to EVs is expected to: a) reduce oil and
gas consumption in road transportation; b) increase electricity con-
sumption due to charging of EVs; and c) replace ICE based vehicles
with EVs. The logical problem tree presented in Fig. 4 reflects that the
transition to EVs would have federal and state governments, petroleum
sector, electricity sector, automobile industry and consumers as the
major stakeholders in the transition to EVs in India. For analysis of im-
pact on various stakeholders, thematic analysis has been used. The fol-
lowing sub-sections present the anticipated impact of the transition
on various stakeholders.
Federal and state governments
As established in the previous section, the transition to EVs in India is
going to significantly impact the revenue receipts of federal and state
governments in the country. For assessing the impact, this study con-
siders India's commitment to EV30@30 Campaign of achieving 30% EV
sales by 2030. Let us assume that 30% EV sales would lead to 30% reduc-
tion in oil and gas consumption and subsequently 30% reduction inrev-
enue receipts from petroleum sector. For scenario analysis, Fig. 5
Table 3
Import bill, subsidies/under-recoveries and revenue receipts associated with oil and gas in India (Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Govern-
ment of India, n.d.-a, n.d.-b;Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India, 2016, 2018, 2021).
Particulars Unit 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017–18 2018–19 2019–20
Import bill ₹Crore 7,62,060 4,81,940 5,41,725 6,54,824 8,96,848 8,42,743
Import bill as percentage of India's gross imports (in value terms) % 27.9 19.4 21.0 21.8 24.9 25.1
Subsidy/under-recovery on Petrol ₹Crore 0 00000
Subsidy/under-recovery on Diesel ₹Crore 10,935 00000
Subsidy/under-recovery on Natural Gas (applicable only for North East region of India) ₹Crore 765 781 498 435 557 574
Revenue receipts for Central Government from petroleum sector ₹Crore 1,72,066 2,53,615 3,34,534 3,36,162 3,48,041 3,34,315
Revenue receipts for Central Government from petroleum sector as percentage of total revenue
receipts of Central Government
% 162124232018
Revenue receipts for State Government from petroleum sector ₹Crore 1,60,554 1,60,209 1,89,770 2,06,864 2,27,591 2,21,056
Revenue receipts for State Government from petroleum sector as percentage of total revenue
receipts of State Government
%988987
Total revenue receipts from petroleum sector ₹Crore 3,32,620 4,13,824 5,24,304 5,43,026 5,75,632 5,55,371
Transion to EVs
Reducon in oil and
gas consumpon
Reducon in revenue
and taxes from oil
and gas
Federal and state
governments Petroleum sector
Increased electricity
demand for charging
of EVs
Need for ramping up
power generaon
capacity
Electricity sector
Replacement of ICE
based vehicles with
EVs
Need for manufacturing,
supply, promoon and
adopon of EVs
Automobile industry Consumers
Fig. 4. Logical problem tree for identification of stakeholders in transition to EVs in India.
B.K. Chaturvedi, A. Nautiyal, T.C. Kandpal et al. Energy for Sustainable Development 66 (2022) 189–200
194
presentsthe loss of revenue receipts to central and state governments of
India at 10%, 20% and targeted 30% market share of EVs in the country.
The importance of the revenue receipts from petroleum sector can be
gauged by comparing it with expenditure of central or state govern-
ments of India on priority areas while maintaining a fiscal deficit of
around 3.5% (Ministry of Finance, Government of India, 2020-2021).
In India, ‘Core of the Core Schemes’are the highest priority areas for cen-
tral government (Ministry of Finance, Government of India, 2016-2017,
2017-2018, 2018-2019, 2019-2020, 2020-2021). Table 4 reflects the
year-wise expenditure on these Core of the Core Schemes. A 30% reduc-
tion on the revenue receipts of central government during 2019–20 in-
dicates a loss of ₹1,00,295 Crore revenue to the central government. As
this revenue loss is significantly higher than the total expenditure of ₹
93,628 Crore by central government on Core of th eC ore Schemes during
2019–20, it can be inferred that the loss of revenue receipts due to tran-
sition to EV is going to hamper India's ability to spend on its priority
areas resulting in significant economic impact. The loss of revenue re-
ceipts to central government at 10% and 20% market share of EVs are
also comparable to budgetary outlays of several important schemes
listed in Table 4. Similar to central government, the state governments
are also going to feel the impact on their revenue receipts due to the
transition to EVs.
In addition to the loss of revenue receipts, transition to EVs would
demand significant expenditure by central and state governments in
promotion of EV industry in India. For example, as highlighted earlier,
Phase-II of FAME-India scheme implemented by central government
has a budgetary support of ₹10,000 crore and it is focused on demand
creation (through capital subsidy), charging infrastructure and public-
ity/awareness campaigns (Press Information Bureau, Government of
India, 2019a). In addition, several states in India such as Delhi and
Telangana are promoting EVs in their states through upfront capital
subsidies, exemption from road tax and registration fee, and fiscal sup-
port for charging infrastructure and charging services (Telangana State
Renewable Energy Development Corporation Ltd., Government of
Telengana, India, 2021;Transport Department, Government of
National Capital Territory of Delhi, India, 2020). Road tax and registra-
tion fee levied on road transport vehicles contribute significantly to
the revenue of state governments in India (Table 5). Also, central gov-
ernment of India has extended income tax benefits to individual tax-
payers on purchase of EVs that allows a deduction for interest
payments up to ₹1.5 lakhs under Section 80EEB (Lee & Brown, 2021).
For all startups (including startups related to EV industry and energy
storage batteries), the federal government has extended tax holiday
till 31st March 2022 (Zhuge et al., 2021).
From the above, it can be inferred that the transition to EVs in India
will have double impact on federal and state governments on account of
loss of revenue receipts and pressure of expenditure for promotion of
EVs. In totality, it is going to be fiscally challenging for both central
and state governments.
Petroleum sector
In petroleum sector of India, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation
(ONGC) and Oil India Limited (OIL) are public sector units (PSUs)
whereas Cairn India Limited, Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) and
Shell India are the private companies engagedin upstream(exploration
and production) segment. In downstream segment (refining and mar-
keting), there are PSU refineries such as Indian Oil Corporation Limited
(IOCL), Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), Bharat Petro-
leum Corporation Limited (BPCL), etc. along with private refineries RIL
and Nayara Energy Limited. In total, there are 23 refineries in India
with a total capacity of 249.9 MMTPA (Petroleum Planning and
Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of
India, n.d.-c). In addition to these refineries in downstream segment,
there are 64,625 retail outlets of oil and gas spread all over India
(Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and
Natural Gas, Government of India, n.d.-d).
The upstream and downstream entities of petroleum sector employ
around 1,03,832 full-time employees in PSUs along with several thousand
working on contractual mode (Economic and Statistics Division, Ministry
of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India, 2019-20). In addition,
private companies such as RIL also employ several thousands. Also, the
64,625 retail outlets of oil and gas spread all over India along with their
associate transporters have employed around few lakh individuals.
Along with jobs, petroleum sector entities generate huge revenues and
subsequently profits. The profits (after tax deduction) recorded by up-
stream and downstream oil and gas companies during last few years
have been graphically presented in Fig. 6. With such huge profits and
employment generation, petroleum sector is one of the critical sectors
making significant contribution to the economy of India.
As highlighted in previous sections, a mass transition to EVs can sig-
nificantly affect the petroleum sector by reducing the sale of oil and gas
and consequently affecting the viability of many business entities. In ad-
dition to reduced sales, the transition would also lead to loss of jobs in
the entire value chain of petroleum sector.
Electricity sector
As per latest data, India has 23,00,30,598 registered vehicles includ-
ing 13,84,740 buses, 16,89,75,300 two-wheelers, 2,79,76,199 cars
(private and commercial), 22,65,488 jeeps, and 1,69,08,166 light and
heavy commercial vehicles, etc. (Ministry of Statistics and Programme
33432
66863
100295
22106
44211
66317
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Loss of revenue receipts (Rs crore)
Market share of EVs
Central Government
State Governments
Fig. 5. Loss of revenue receipts to central and state governments with different scenarios of EV market share in India.
B.K. Chaturvedi, A. Nautiyal, T.C. Kandpal et al. Energy for Sustainable Development 66 (2022) 189–200
195
Implementation, Government of India, 2018). India has planned to
achieve its goal of 30% EV sales through ensuring cumulative sale of
31% electric cars, 24% electric buses and 72% electric two-wheelers by
2030 (sale of two-wheelers would not be considered for attainment of
goal under EV30@30) (International Energy Agency, 2019). Such
large-scale transition to EVs would require a robust EV charging infra-
structure. Currently, there are two predominant modes of charging in
India namely normal charging and fast charging. Technical specifica-
tions related to charging often vary with the type of vehicle. The techni-
cal specifications of charging for two popular EV models of India have
been summarized in Table 6. In addition to the single point chargers
highlighted in Table 6, higher capacity and multi-point chargers of 10–
50 kW have been recommended for public charging stations (Ministry
of Power, Government of India, n.d.).
The charging specifications indicate that whenever an EV is con-
nected to grid for charging, it would create a minimum electricity de-
mand of 3 kW for few hours. As the driving range (distance travelled
by EV with fully charged battery) is quite substantial, considering aver-
age commuting distance per day in India, it is expected that charging
frequency would be around every 2–3 days. Hence, it is anticipated
that not all EVs would be connected to the electricity grid simulta-
neously and their charging schedules would be staggered. The choice
of charging schedule would primarily depend upon the convenience
of the EV owner and the applicable electricity tariff. Table 7 projects
three different scenarios that are in line with India's targeted EV goals
for estimating minimum additional electricity demand created by si-
multaneous charging of EVs. This assumes uniform usage of minimum
power capacity chargers of 3 kW. The three scenarios are:
a) Scenario 1 (30% market share of EVs): 31% electric cars, 24% electric
buses and 72% electric two-wheelers
b) Scenario 2 (20% market share of EVs): 20% electric cars, 16% electric
buses and 48% electric two-wheelers
c) Scenario 3 (10% market share of EVs): 10% electric cars, 8% electric
buses and 24% electric two-wheelers
Charging of EVs is expected to create additional demand for electric-
ity. As illustrated in Table 7, simultaneous charging of EVs under various
scenariosisexpectedtocreatesignificant electricity demand. With cur-
rent peak electricity demand of 1,82,932 MW reported in India (Central
Electricity Authority, Ministry of Power, Government of India, 2021),
the minimum additional demand projected under various scenarios in
Table 7 would necessitate ramping up of existing power plants and con-
struction of new power plants. The actual additional demand could be
higher as substantial number of EVs would be using fast chargers or
public charging stations with higher power rating. All these would cre-
ate additional investment and employment opportunities in electricity
sector.
Automobile industry
Automobile industry of India is one of the main contributors to its
economy. With about 49% share in the country's manufacturing GDP
and 7.5% share in national GDP, automobile industry of India employs
about 32 million people (ET Auto, 2020). With an annual production ca-
pacity of about 35 million ICE based vehicles (including cars, buses, two-
wheelers and three-wheelers) catering primarily to the domestic mar-
ket, automobile Industry of India has been consistently exporting
more than 4 million vehicles annually (Society of Indian Automobile
Manufacturers, n.d.). With global shift towards EVs, it is gearing up for
the transition from ICEbased vehicles to EVs. Compared to ICE based ve-
hicles, EVs are quite different as they don't have fuel system, ignition
system, clutch, gears, exhaust system and water cooling system (Drive
Electric, n.d.). Instead, EVs consist of battery pack, DC-AC converter,
electric motor and on-board charger (EV Reporter, n.d.). Indian has
achieved a high level of indigenous manufacturing capacity in its ICE
based automobile industry (Soman, Ganesan, & Kaur, 2019). However,
it has limited capabilities in power electronics and lithium-ion batteries
that are high value products.Currently, batteries constitute about 40% of
the cost of an electric car. However, with recent developments in batte-
ries, these are expected to get cheaper. For both power electronics and
lithium-ion batteries, India is largely dependent on imports (Soman et
al., 2019). With transition to EVs at an early stage in India, the targeted
30% market share of EVs by 2030 is going to have big impact on its au-
tomobile industry. Following global trend, several countries who are
major importers of automobiles and auto components from India have
planned the transition to EVs. Thus, to retain its position as one of the
top automobile manufacturers and exporters, India has to swiftly
adopt suitable measures to develop its domestic EV manufacturing
capabilities.
From the perspective of number of components, there are about 20
moving parts in an EV compared to around 2000 in an ICE based vehicle
(Drive Electric, n.d.). With such drastic reduction in number of moving
parts, EVs require much less maintenance. Additionally, focus of R&D ac-
tivities on electric motor and lithium-ion battery has been consistently
increasing the life cycle of these two critical components of EVs. Re-
cently, Tata Nexon EV has been launched in India with a warranty of 8
years on both electric motor and battery (Tata Motors, n.d.). Such in-
crease in life cycle of EV components would further reduce the need
for spare parts and maintenance services.
Overall, the transition to EVs poses a significant risk to Indian auto-
mobile industry with prospects of revenue and job losses in its
manufacturing, spare parts retail and maintenance services segments.
Consumers
Zero tailpipe emissions, almost noise free operation and reduced
maintenance needs aresome of the features of EVs that are quite attrac-
tive to its customers. However, it has high upfront cost compared to its
Table 4
Expenditure by centralgovernment of Indiaon core of the core schemes (₹Crore)(Ministry of Finance,Government of India,2016-2017, 2017-2018, 2018-2019,2019-2020, 2020-2021).
Core of the core scheme 2015–2016 2016–17 2017–2018 2018–19 2019–20
National Social Assistance Progamme 8616 8854 8694 8418 8692
Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Programme 37,341 48,215 55,166 61,815 71,687
Umbrella Scheme for Development of Schedule Castes 4201 4863 5061 7574 5591
Umbrella Programme for Development of Scheduled Tribes 2934 3319 3573 3781 4205
Umbrella Programme for Development of Minorities 3810 2790 3948 886 1742
Umbrella Programme for Development of Other Vulnerable Groups 1240 1507 1574 1564 1711
Total Expenditure on Core of the Core Schemes 58,142 69,548 78,016 84,038 93,628
Table 5
Revenuereceived by state governments in Indiathrough various Fee/Taxes levied on Road
Transport Vehicles (₹Crore)(Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, Government of
India, n.d.).
Parameter 2017 2018 2019 2020
New vehicle registration fee 854 962 907 667
Motor vehicle tax/road tax 40,001 55,168 42,548 36,012
Total revenue from road transport vehicles
(including other fee and taxes)
46,505 62,845 50,538 41,619
B.K. Chaturvedi, A. Nautiyal, T.C. Kandpal et al. Energy for Sustainable Development 66 (2022) 189–200
196
ICE counterparts. For example, the recently launched Tata Nexon EV is
being sold at ₹13,99,000 whereas its ICE counterpart Tata Nexon is
priced at ₹7,20,000 in India (Carwale, n.d.-a). Similarly, Mahindra e2o
Plus (an EV) is priced at ₹7,48,000 whereas its ICE counterpart Maruti
Suzuki Wagon R is being sold at ₹4,79,000 (Carwale, n.d.-b). For most
cases, annual operating costs of EVs are lower than that of their ICE
counterparts. However, due to significantly higher upfront cost, the
total cost of ownership (TCO) of electric cars (expressed in ₹/km) is
higher than its ICE counterparts regardless of the fuel option (natural
gas, petrol, and diesel) (Kumar & Chakrabarty, 2020). It has been re-
ported thatthe TCO of EVs can be reduced significantly by higher vehicle
utilization with longer distances travelled per day. With economic via-
bility of EVs improving with higher vehicle utilization, it presents a
strong casefor promoting EVs firstly among the ride-hailing aggregators
like Ola and Uber (Kumar & Chakrabarty, 2020).
Possible interplay between stakeholders
The transition is also goingto be quite challengingfor petroleum sec-
tor and automobile industry posing significant risk to their revenue and
employment generation capabilities. On the contrary, transition to EVs
and consequently their charging requirements would substantially in-
crease the demand for electricity in India. For example, under the
projected scenario of 30% market share of EVs in India, simultaneous
charging of 30% EVs would increase the peak electricity demand by
64%. To fulfill the additional demand, it would require ramping up of
existing power plants and capacity addition through new power plants
resulting in new investment and employment opportunities in electric-
ity sector. Similar opportunities would be created by the need for estab-
lishment of commercially operated public charging stations for
energizing EVs. Most of the petroleum sector companies in India are
making substantial profits and thus these cash rich companies can in-
vest in the new opportunities that would be created in power sector.
Additionally, development of a network of public charging stations inal-
ready space cramped Indian cities and towns would require open
spaces. Once again, the petroleum sector companies can leverage their
strong network of 64,625 retail outlets to integrate charging stations
with their already existing infrastructure. This would allow the cash
rich petroleum companies to diversify their risks and become a strong
partner in the transition to EVs.
For automobile industry, the transition poses a significant risk of rev-
enue and job losses in its manufacturing, spare parts retail and mainte-
nance services segments. To retain its position as one of the top
automobile manufacturers and exporters, it needs to swiftly revamp
its manufacturing units by learning to produce high value components
of EVs such as power lithium-ion batteries and power electronics.
With big investments from petroleum companies, automobile industry
of India can leverage its large domestic market size to establish partner-
ships and joint ventures with leaders in EV manufacturing capabilities,
eventually learning and developing its own EV capabilities.
Large-scale transition to EVs in India would impact several stake-
holders, but it would also open new opportunities for synergy between
various stakeholders.
Discussion
The projected transition to EVs in India is going to have wide-ranging
implications on the economy of the country. The major stakeholders to
feel the impact of the transition are central and state governments, petro-
leum sector, electricity sector, automobile industry and customers. Under
different scenarios considered in the study, the transition to EVs is going
to significantly reduce sale and consumption of oil and gas in India. This
would reduce revenue receipts to central and state governments that
are earned through taxes and duties. For 10%, 20% and 30% market
share of EVs in India, the central government is expected to lose around
₹33,432 crore, ₹66,863 crore and ₹1,00,295 crore whereas the state
government are expected to accrue cumulative revenue losses of
₹22,106, ₹44,211 and ₹66,317 crore respectively. In addition to these
revenue losses, the central and state governments are also foregoing sig-
nificant amount of revenue by extending income tax rebates, exemption
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2015 16 2016 17 2017 18 2018 19 2019 20
Profit (Rs Crore)
Financial Year
Private Companies (Upstream and
Downstream)
Standalone Refineries (PSUs)
Downstream Companies (PSUs)
Upstream Companies (PSUs)
Fig. 6. Profit earnings of petroleum sector companies (Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2021).
Table 6
Technical s pecifications of EV charging (Mahindra Electric, n.d.;Tata Motors, n.d.).
Parameter Mahindra e
2
o plus Tata Nexon EV
Normal charging Fast charging Normal charging Fast charging
Charger 3 kW single phase 16 A charger 10 kW 3-phase 32 A charger 3 kW single phase 16 A charger 10 kW 3-phase 32 A charger
Charging time 7 h 20 min 1 h 35 min 8 h 30 min 1 h
Electricity consumption for full charge 15 kWh 30.2 kWh
Driving range 140 km 312 km
B.K. Chaturvedi, A. Nautiyal, T.C. Kandpal et al. Energy for Sustainable Development 66 (2022) 189–200
197
of registration fee and road tax on purchase of new EVs. Also, both central
and state governments have been spending substantially on promotion of
EVs and development of charging infrastructure. Hence, the transition to
EVs in India is going to be fiscally challenging for both the central and
state governments in India and they need to find alternative sources of
revenue to finance the transition. One of the appropriate strategies
could be to identify additional products and services on which taxes and
duties could be levied. Green tax could be levied on consumption of fossil
fuels such as coal, oil or gas. Additionally, pollution tax could be imposed
on construction activities, plastic manufacturing, transport services by ICE
based vehicles, etc. This would not only raise funds for smooth transition
but also make sure that the governments retain the capability to invest in
critical socio-economic projects.
For petroleum sector and automobile industry, the transition is ex-
pected to be quite challenging that would necessitate structural re-
forms. However, it would also open new opportunities for the cash
rich petroleum companies to ride thetransition by investingin electric-
ity sector and automobile industry. As many of the petroleum and elec-
tricity sector entities in India are public sector units, role of federal and
state governments would be important for the development of synergy
between petroleum sector, electricity sector and automobile industry.
Synergy between these stakeholders would enable them to adapt to
the transition swiftly and ensure that India benefits from it while ensur-
ing robust economic growth and job prospects.
In the transition to EVs, customers are important stakeholders as
they are the ones who are going to adopt EVs and create its demand
in the market. The targeted transition to EVs in India may face chal-
lenges if the customers are unableto appreciate the technical and finan-
cial attractiveness of EVs. Though technically competent with added
benefits of zero emissions, noise free operation and low maintenance
requirements, the TCO of EVs are still higher due to their high capital
cost. As TCO of EVs are reported to improve significantly with higher ve-
hicle utilization, it is recom mended that ride-hailing aggrega tors such as
Ola and Uber that have higher vehicle utilization can be engaged as early
adopters of EVs in India. These early adopters can help the EV industry
reach critical mass in India and build confidence among customers for
large-scale adoption of EVs.
The findings of this study have several policy implications, especially
for developing economies with limited fiscal resources. Globally, about
193 countries have officially adopted SDGs (United Nations, n.d.-b). As
large-scale adoption of EVs would facilitate accomplishment of multiple
SDGs namely Goal 3 (Good Health and Well-Being), Goal 7 (Affordable
and Clean Energy), Goal 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), Goal
12 (Responsible Consumption and Production) and Goal 13 (Climate
Action), the transition to EVs is imminent. However, the transition
could be beneficial for some sectors and disruptive for other sectors.
The severity of the impact on a country would vary depending on the
structure of the economy. For example, a net oil and gas importing
country and a net oil and gas exporting country would get impacted
from the transition differently. Similarly, a leading ICE based vehicle
manufacturing country and a net vehicle importing country would
feel the transition differently. However, the major stakeholders in the
transition to EVs would be similar across countries. For policymakers
engaged in promotion of EVs across theworld, it is imperative to assess
the impact of the transition on various stakeholders holistically and
ensure that the transition is smooth through development of synergy
between the stakeholders.
Conclusions
Large-scale transition to EVs would facilitate accomplishment of
multiple SDGs and thus EVs are being promoted worldwide. The transi-
tion to EVs and consequent reduction in consumption of petroleum
fuels in India is going to have significant impact on its economy. The
shift would: a) reduce revenue receipts and increase expenditure of
central andstate governments; b) decreaserevenue generation and em-
ployment opportunities in petroleum sector; c) open new business and
employment opportunities in electricity sector; d) force revamping of
automobile sector to accommodate the shift to EVs; and e) encourage
customers to adopt EVs. Central and state governments can raise
funds to promote EVs and compensate for loss in revenue receipts
through introduction of green/pollution taxes on consumption of fossil
fuels, construction activities, plastic manufacturing, transport services
by ICE based vehicles, etc. Cash rich petroleum sector companies can di-
versify their risks by investing in new business opportunities in electric-
ity sector. Automobile industry of India can leverage its large domestic
market size to establish partnerships and joint ventures with leaders
in EV manufacturing capabilities, eventually learning and developing
its own EV capabilities. For mass adoption of EVs among customers, it
is important to ensure that the TCO of EVs are competitive with their
ICE counterparts. As TCO of EVs decrease with higher vehicle utilization,
it can be first promoted among ride-hailing aggregators that have
higher vehicle utilization. Once these early adopters demonstrate the
utility of EVs and help the EV industry reach critical mass, its adoption
can be accelerated among masses.
Declaration of competing interest
The author would like to declare that there is no conflict of interest.
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