Allan N. Rae

Massey University · School of Economics and Finance

This study uses a discrete choice experiment to examine consumers’ preferences for Fuji apple product attributes and willingness to pay (WTP) estimates for consumers in six cities of China. We estimate preference heterogeneity by linking the stated preference choice data with consumers’ past experience and socioeconomic characteristics in the laten...

Over the past three decades, China has implemented reforms in the agricultural sector in an attempt to increase efficiency and food security. However, China now faces a number of environmental degradation problems, in part, caused by her past agricultural reforms. In this paper we estimate, using a provincial-based panel dataset, a third-order tran...

China’s dairy farm structure has experienced fundamental changes across farm types. As the number of backyard farms has dramatically declined, the share of dairy cows from backyard farms has decreased by 22.4% from 2003 to 2008. However, the herd numbers of larger dairy farms have increased. In particular, the share of dairy cows has risen by 18.8%...

Despite their welfare-improving properties, negotiations on tariff reductions remain a highly contentious issue. Using the GTAP general equilibrium approach, this paper identifies potential winners and losers from partial removal of remaining tariffs in disaggregated sectors. By considering alternative approaches to further liberalising trade in th...

The combined effects of population increase and increasing standards of living in developing countries are expected to create a high demand for animal-derived protein by 2050. New initiatives will be required to produce the necessary quantities of high quality protein. We explore a range of initiatives that will help to close this gap. We propose t...

Literature from the past 20 years is reviewed to establish the range of TFP growth estimates that have been made for China's agriculture. This includes some studies that have focussed on either the crops or livestock subsectors. The dispersion of these estimates is used as an input to a slightly-modified GTAP model in order to determine the sensiti...

Technological change and factor biases are estimated by employing a translog cost function based on a new adjusted dataset for China's hog production sector. Technological change is found not to have been neutral and the factor bias to be statistically significant towards feed grain-saving technology. It is also found that the demand for feed grain...

Agriculture remains a major sector of the New Zealand economy, with the vast majority of farm and food production exported. The accelerating intensification of farming in New Zealand over recent decades raises concern over the current sustainability of New Zealand farming, and whether it can remain so in the future. In this study, we focus on the i...

China has significantly expanded its dairy cow numbers and increased its dairy processing capacity over the last five year in an attempt to meet increased demand for dairy products. China’s net imports of dairy products, however, has expanded at a growth rate in excess of 30% during the same period. To consider why China is still struggling to meet...

The livestock revolution that has occurred over the last few decades has seen a phenomenal increase in demand for livestock products in much of the developing world. This has largely been matched with growth in supplies, driven by government policies, and increased animal numbers and productivity. But this growth has been accompanied by a number of...

China's production of livestock products has generally kept pace with her rapidly increasing demand. Over-supply and market corrections for various livestock products took place over the latter part of the 1990s and large numbers of householders exited this type of production. Using household survey data, we estimate the relationship between a hous...

National public debates on sustainable agriculture are often framed by the respective attitudes and interests of the dominant stakeholders involved. The objective of this study is to analyse the public debates on sustainable agriculture in Switzerland and New Zealand by means of two stakeholder surveys. The analysis of the questionnaire data reveal...

This paper discusses the determination of profit-maximising behaviour under conditions of imperfect competition in product and/or factor markets. After stating a quadratic programming model which restricts product demand and factor supply functions to a linear form, an empirical application to a New Zealand nursery firm is discussed. It is conclude...

China's sustained rapid economic growth and development has contributed to the surge in consumption and production of livestock in that country termed the livestock revolution. Consumption trends are first reviewed, and changes in food consumption patterns include a marked shift away from grains and towards meats and dairy products. A question is t...

Dairy farms in China's suburban areas have been playing an important role in providing urban markets with fresh milk. With the rising demand for fluid milk and dairy products in the cities, there is a perception that small and scattered dairy farms in China's provinces are gradually disappearing and more concentrated dairy cattle farming is being f...

The WTO Ministerial Statement of November 2001 mandates work on those situations where reduction of trade restrictions would benefit both trade and the environment. To contribute to such research, we use a modified version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model to estimate for OECD countries' changes in two environmental indicators resul...

This document is the technical annex to the full paper "The WTO, Agricultural Trade Reform and the Environment: Nitrogen and Agro-chemical Indicators for the OECD" which is available separately.

This paper examines how the patterns of India’s food consumption have been changing in recent times as a consequence of its faster economic growth and generally rising affluence levels. The study, also, presents evidence on the nutritional implications of these changes to reinforce some of the findings on the observed changes in the food consumpt...

The household sector remains the dominant supplier to China's rapidly growing livestock markets. Many of these livestock-producing households are part-time farmers, and are diversifying into non-farm activities, while others are becoming more specialised in livestock production. There is shown to be a long tail of households which earn less than 10...

Export education in New Zealand dates from the 1950s, with international students coming to study through the Commonwealth Colombo Plan. There has been a dramatic increase of international students studying in New Zealand. This research asks the questions: Are New Zealand public universities having to manage the international student numbers they f...

Studies of total factor productivity (TFP) in livestock production are rare, but when available provide useful information especially in the context of developing countries such as China where livestock is becoming more important in the domestic agricultural economy. We estimate TFP for four major livestock products in China employing the stochasti...

Summary Recent debate on the reasons for the informal sector has led to renewed focus on how to operationalize the measurement of informal employment. This paper investigates congruence between three empirical measures of the rate of informality using Brazilian household survey data for the period 1992-2004. Sixty-three percent of the economically...

The material contained herein is supplementary to the article named in the title and published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Volume 88, Number 3, August 2006.

The potential role of China as a major importer of agricultural products, and the likely impact on world markets has been a topic of considerable debate over the past decade. In this paper, we focus specifically on the livestock sector and develop a detailed analysis of productivity growth in China's pig and poultry production along with projection...

Multilateral agricultural negotiations are a crucial part of the WTO's Doha Development Agenda, the outcome of which may significantly impact New Zealand. In this paper we review progress and key proposals put forward to date in the negotiations. We use a newly available and significantly improved version of a global trade database to model the pot...

Chinese animal product consumption behaviour was analysed for both urban and rural households using a complete regional consumption dataset that was augmented to include away-from-home consumption. Seven animal product expenditure share equations were estimated with an extended Almost Ideal Demand System model. The results suggest that Chinese cons...

Introduction Along with textiles and a few other goods, agricultural products represent the last bastion of protected national markets in an era of globalism. The highest tariffs in agricultural markets are several times those for manufactured goods. Table 9.1 shows the unweighted average bound tariff on agricultural commodities for twenty major tr...

Some sectors of Australian and New Zealand farming have been heavily assisted in the past. New Zealand underwent an economy-wide deregulation in the mid-to-late 980s that included abrupt removal of practically all agricultural assistance. Policy reform in Australia has been more gradual and is industry focused, but in some cases substantial industr...

China's agricultural output has expanded rapidly since the economic reforms of the late 1970s, reflecting both productivity growth and mobilization of inputs. Over the same period, increased consumption of livestock products has been a feature of China's food consumption. Widely different projections of China's demand for feedgrains to feed its exp...

Studies of total factor productivity in livestock production are rare, but when available provide useful information especially in the context of developing countries such as China where livestock is becoming more important in the domestic agricultural economy. We estimate total factor productivity (TFP) for four major livestock products in China a...

Given that around 20 percent of the members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) are identified as least developed countries (LDC's), global trade negotiations, resumed after the Cancun fiasco of September 2003, must address some major development issues in the spirit of the Doha Development Agenda (DDA), if they are to make any headway. This will...

Exports of processed foods from developing countries have expanded rapidly in recent times, contributing to their economic development. Recent published research has shown that the export policies and agricultural resource endowment of the developing country offer significant explanations for this export growth. But what if developing countries fur...

Pressures for the reform of agricultural policies in wealthy countries will increase. Current policies are expensive and inefficient and impose substantial costs on countries that cannot afford to subsidize their agricultural sectors. A major political impediment to policy reform is the real or assumed costs of adjustment that would be imposed on f...

Chinese livestock products consumption behavior was analysed for both urban and rural households using a complete regional consumption dataset. Six livestock product expenditure share equations were estimated with an extended AIDS model. The results suggest that Chinese consumers will continue to increase their consumption of livestock products, bu...

China has been rapidly increasing its consumption and imports of dairy products in recent years. A two-stage demand system was estimated for livestock product consumption in urban China over the 1990s. Total expenditure elasticities for the livestock commodity group and expenditure elasticities for dairy products within the livestock commodity grou...

The current WTO agricultural trade negotiations began in March 2000 and became part of the Doha Development Agenda in late 2001. The previous Uruguay Round reached agricultural agreements in the areas of market access, export competition and domestic support. The current round is seeking agreements under similar headings. The effort to reach agreem...

The Doha Development Agenda negotiations have the potential to lower agricultural protection and improve livestock production incentives for many farmers worldwide. Global trade barriers are particularly high in the case of products derived from livestock, especially dairy products and beef. While liberalisation is a source of economic benefits, it...

This document is the technical annex to the full paper "The Current Round of Agricultural Trade Negotiations: Should We Bother About Domestic Support?" which is available separately.

Consumption of livestock products has been increasing rapidly, especially in the developing world. Demand for non-ruminant meats has been increasing more rapidly than that for ruminant meats. This has been accompanied by rapid supply growth, especially in industrial grains-based livestock production systems. As a consequence, the importance of gras...

Large increases in livestock production have led to increased pressures on the natural environment in many regions of the world. In the absence of new environmental policies, these environmental problems are projected to worsen as demand for livestock products continues to grow. In this paper we investigate the linkages between growth, trade and th...

We develop projections of China's likely meat trade in the year 2010 using a general equilibrium model in conjunction with forecasts of productivity growth rates and macro-economic forecasts. Interestingly, macro-economic uncertainty appears to be more important in driving China's net trade position in meats than is sector-specific supply uncertain...

This paper was presented at the INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS SYMPOSIUM in Auckland, New Zealand, January 18-19, 2001. The Symposium was sponsored by: the International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium, the Venture Trust, Massey University, New Zealand, and the Centre for Applied Economics and Policy Studies, Massey University. Di...

While the Uruguay Round resulted in greater transparency of agricultural trade barriers and limited liberalization, substantial barriers to trade in livestock products remain. This paper makes a projection of the global economy to 2005, and then seeks to determine the impacts of alternative outcomes of the next WTO Millenium Round. Three options fo...

Increasing livestock product consumption in many Asian countries has been accompanied by growth in some countries’ imports of feedgrains for their domestic livestock sectors. This contributes to debate over future levels of grain imports. Yet projections often pay little attention to developments in livestock production. The impacts of technologica...

Japan has long been the region's (and the world's) leading importer of agricultural products. Her imports of almost US$30 billion in 1996 exceeded those of the USA by US$5 billion. The latter country is APEC's leading agricultural exporter however, with an excess of exports over imports of about US$7 billion. Economic development, urbanisation and...

Owing to their eradication of foot-and-mouth disease Argentina and Uruguay have recently been granted access to the fresh beef markets of the United States and Canada. This raises the prospect of Latin American suppliers gaining access to other Pacific Rim markets, and of increasing the integration of the Pacific and non-Pacific beef markets. A two...

Food consumption patterns are undergoing substantial change in many countries as economic development proceeds. The trend is a move away from traditional cereals towards higher‐value and higher‐protein foods. Explaining such changes only in terms of traditional economic variables can lead to biased estimates of income effects and perhaps biased pro...

Consumption functions for total animal‐derived food products were estimated for six East Asian countries. Incorporation of urbanisation was found to make a significant contribution to the functions. The urbanisation elasticities were always positive, indicating that the process of urbanisation had a positive effect on the demand for animal food pro...

Consumption functions for total animal-derived food products were estimated for six East Asian countries. Incorporation of urbanisation was found to make a significant contribution to the functions. The urbanisation elasticities were always positive, indicating that the process of urbanisation had a positive effect on the demand for animal food pro...

"United Kingdom (UK) demand for carnations by exporting country was estimated using a production version of the Rotterdam model, and model estimates were used to assess the effects of EU preferential trade agreements on import demand. Of particular importance was how these agreements affected Colombian and Kenyan carnation exports to the UK, the se...

Rapid economic growth in East Asia is encouraging the increased contribution of livestock products to human diets. Consumption functions are estimated for white and red meats and dairy products and used to make projections to the year 2002. Consumption projections are next compared with likely developments in domestic production of livestock produc...

With the rapid increase in consumption of some livestock products in Indonesia, expansion of domestic production of these commodities may enhance smallholders’ incomes, increase rural employment and add to the country’s trade balance. Policy analysis matrices (PAMs) were constructed to estimate divergences between private and social costs and retur...

Consumption of livestock products in Southeast Asia could continue to increase rapidly, as has been the case in Northeast Asia. The extent to which domestic producers may respond to these demand developments will be influenced by government interventions in both livestock product and feeds markets. The paper analyses the net contribution of livesto...

Consumption of livestock products in Southeast Asia could continue to increase rapidly, as has been the case in Northeast Asia. The extent to which domestic producers may respond to these demand developments will be influenced by government interventions in both livestock product and feeds markets. The paper analyses the net contribution of livesto...

Managers of most agribusinesses surveyed believe they have adjusted effectively to New Zealand's sweeping economic reforms (Rogernomics). Firms well positioned to deal with Rogernomics and those gaining early mover advantages fared best. Strategic responses of the New Zealand agribusinesses generally contributed to profits, made them more competiti...

Managers of most agribusinesses surveyed believe they have adjusted effectively to New Zealand's sweeping economic reforms (Rogernomics). Firms well positioned to deal with Rogernomics and those gaining early mover advantages fared best. Strategic responses of the New Zealand agribusinesses generally contributed to profits, made them more competiti...

It appears that the agricultural economics literature lacks much evidence upon which we can judge the performance of statutory boards as marketing institutions. This paper reports the achievements of the New Zealand Apple and Pear Marketing Board in two areas of supply diversion--the allocation of fruit between fresh and process markets, and the al...

A supply response model for New Zealand apples is specified and equa•tions for new plantings, removals, yields and adoption of an innovation are estimated. The model expands on perennial crop models previously estimated by incorporating the time pattern of adoption of a planting innovation and formulation of a measure of yield expectations given t...

Discrete stochastic programming has been suggested as a means of solving sequential decision problems under uncertainty, but as yet little or no empirical evidence of the capabilities of this technique in solving such problems has appeared. This paper presents in some detail an empirical application of discrete stochastic programming, including a d...

This paper presents a further development of discrete stochastic programming, viewed within the context of Bayesian decision theory. Some probability models and information structures (with and without additional information) are discussed, followed by an indication of how the stochastic programming matrix may be set up to reflect the various infor...

Investment decision processes typically involve the selection of projects, the timing of their initiation and the determination of the amount to be invested in each time period. A linear programming model considered appropriate for solving such models is described, in which the multi-dimensional criterion function is expressed as a linear combinati...

Books reviewed: D.R. Lee and C.B. Barrett eds., Tradeoffs or Synergies? Agricultural Intensification, Economic Development and Environment, Padma Lal, author William M. Rivera and Willem Zijp eds., Contracting for Agricultural Extension: International Case Studies and Emerging Practices, Rick Llewellyn, author Roger Clarke, Stephen Davies, Paul Dob...

WTO trade negotiations stalled in recent years because of north-south trade conflicts reaching their lows during the Cancun fiasco of September 2003. The developed countries with a much longer history as "industrial economies" have always argued -often with some justification -that the developing countries have long used many and varied instruments...

Consumption of livestock products has been increasing rapidly, especially in the developing world. Demand for non-ruminant meats has been increasing more rapidly than that for ruminant meats. This has been accompanied by rapid supply growth, especially in industrial grains-based livestock production systems. As a consequence, the importance of gras...

Studies of total factor productivity in livestock production are rare, but when available provide useful information especially in the context of developing countries such as China where livestock is becoming more important in the domestic agricultural economy. We use revised data to estimate total factor productivity (TFP) for four major livestock...

Abstract Dairy farms in China’s suburban ,areas have been ,playing an important ,role in providing urban ,markets ,with fresh milk. With the construction of dairy ,cattle

Abstract ,This paper examines how the patterns of India’s food consumption ,have been changing,in recent ,times in line ,with her faster economic ,growth ,and generally rising affluence levels. The study, also, presents evidence on the nutritional implications of these changes to reinforce some of the findings on the,observed changes in the food co...

Livestock consumption is expanding rapidly in East Asia. Governments have responded by supporting and protecting domestic production but resource constraints and environmental problems are adding to the costs of self-sufficie ncy objectives. Rising costs to consumers and taxpayers are also causing such an approach to be questioned, both domesticall...

Exports of processed foods from developing countries have expanded rapidly in recent times, contributing to those countries' development. Recent research showed that the developing country exporter's 'openness' and agric resource endowment offer significant explanations of this export growth. But what if 'openness' is enhanced? What if processed an...

Exports of processed foods have expanded rapidly in recent times, especially from developing countries. Past studies have shown that the developing country exporter's 'openness' and agricultural resource endowments offer significant explanations of this growth in exports of processed foods. But what if 'openness' is enhanced through future multilat...