An Improved Artificial Intelligence Based on Gray Wolf Optimization and Cultural Algorithm to Predict Demand for Dairy Products: A Case Study

Abstract

This paper provides an integrated framework based on statistical tests, time series neural network and improved multi-layer perceptron neural network (MLP) with novel meta-heuristic algorithms in order to obtain best prediction of dairy product demand (DPD) in Iran. At first, a series of economic and social indicators that seemed to be effective in the demand for dairy products is identified. Then, the ineffective indices are eliminated by using Pearson correlation coefficient, and statistically significant variables are determined. Then, MLP is improved with the help of novel meta-heuristic algorithms such as gray wolf optimization and cultural algorithm. The designed hybrid method is used to predict the DPD in Iran by using data from 2013 to 2017. The results show that the MLP offers 71.9% of the coefficient of determination, which is better compared to the other two methods if no improvement is achieved.

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


I. 
D        


         

        
         

.
        

         
    
important .
         
       
        
         
         

      
    
.
         

           
        
         
compare to traditional methods. Several main related research in this

Keywords
A


Regression, Time-series

Abstract

             
         

     







, Hassan Khademi Zare, Ahmad Sadeghieh


Received 20 December 2018 | Accepted 12 January 2019 | Published 8 March 2019


DOI: 10.9781/ijimai.2019.03.003

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International Journal of Interactive Multimedia and Artificial Intelligence
II. 

 have developed
         
           have
      

   




        
         
         

      
   
      


         
  
 to improve the



  
      
   


      
         
        


           

  

III. 
        
         
           
         


        


xf xw
h
hh

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
 
xhhth
whohth hidden
oth
            

x
xw
hhh
0
0
1
1



exp 
           


MSE
nyo
i
n
ii



12
 
Ryo
yy
i
ii
i
i
2
2
2
1 




 
MAEn
yo
i
n
ii



 
            
         
       

      
.

          
          
          
      

 

           
algorithms.
A. Prediction Network Optimization

         



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       
        
         
         







   Y      
O


         

algorithms are expressed.
IV. 
A. Gray Wolf Optimization
        


   

       






    

   

1. Social Behavior of Wolves
    
     
         

            

2. Turning Around the Prey

.
 
 

            
  

rrur r
Aa
ra
21
. 
rur
Cr
=22
. 
 
and r and r are random vectors.
3. Detecting the Position of the Prey
       
         

      


DC
XX

uruu uruuruu r

1
.,
 
DC
XX

uruu uruuruu r

2
.,
 
DC
XX

uruuruuruu r

3
.,
 
ruruu urur
XXAD
11



.,
 
ruruu urur
XXAD
21



.,
 
ruruu urur
XXAD
31



.,
 

 
Xt XXX



13
123
 
           


    








5: repeat










.

- 4 -
International Journal of Interactive Multimedia and Artificial Intelligence
B. Cultural Algorithm (CA)
        .
   
        
        





     


     
      
      

  


1. Population Space


2. Belief Space
          


       
     
         
         
 

         

     
     
  
.
yt St Nt


 


 


3. Positional or Situational Knowledge
         

      

 
4. Normative Knowledge (Criterion)
   
        
the space is competitive, norms take a proper shape and . This
         
        
.
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   
 
li and ui   th dimension,
Li and Ui


5. Admission Function



.
n
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s







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 
nsγ
t
6. Effect Function
         
          
  
.
 
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


5. Repeat
 

 
   
 


V. 
     , the
         
         
           
            


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Article in Press
    
           
          



DescriptionPeriod
General price increase rates







PPI




DPI


areas









AMPAverage milk price












AAGI

income







This index determines the



IPI

index
Indicates the change in the


IPI

index

VI. 
 

         
        


   




Pearson correlationParameter



PPI
DPI
AMP


AAGI


IPI


     


   



  Std. error  
    
    
    
PPI    
AMP    
    
    
    
    

            
      
         
 
         
       

 
  




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International Journal of Interactive Multimedia and Artificial Intelligence
     
   


 
          

      
            
           


       

predictions.

          



         
        
          
       
           






A. Significant Variables Prediction


   
    
 


CPIfCPICPI CPICPI CPI
tttt
tt


 1
2345
,,,,  
IN fINININININ
tttt
tt


 1
2345
,,,,  
PPI fPPI PPI PPI PPI PPI
tttt
tt


 1
2345
,,,,  
AMPfAMPAMP AMPAMP AMP
tttt
tt


 1
2345
,,,,  
POPfPOPPOP POPPOP POP
tttt
tt


 1
2345
,,,,  
 
LPIfLPILPI CPILPI LPI
tttt
tt


 12
345
,,,,  
GC fGCGCGCGCGC
tttt
tt


 1
2345
,,,,  


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   
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    
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
TotalTestTrain
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R
R
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
PPI

AMP

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          



          
        
  

         

         
  



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
             

         



          
           

.



          

        
          
      

    
    
data and predictions.
B. DDP Prediction Using Hybrid MLP
  


     
          


      



0.94760.01270.0941



          
   
         
           
   







         
     












VII. 
         
        

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International Journal of Interactive Multimedia and Artificial Intelligence
Alireza Goli
       
     
       
  
      
         
        
        

Hasan Khademi Zare
       


      
        

Ahmad Sadeghieh
 
        
    
      
        

Reza Tavakkoli-Moghaddam
      
     
         
     
     



   
   
         
        

         

       






         
            







         
       

          
         

         
        
       

  
          

 

         

 


  

       

           
        

 
    
         

 

         
       

 



 

        

         
 

         
        
        

      

        
        

 
        
        

           
        

 
       

         
 
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