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Unraveling the role of light and biotic interactions on seedling performance of four Pyrenean species under environmental gradients

Authors:
Unraveling the role of light and biotic interactions on seedling
performance of four Pyrenean species along environmental gradients
Aitor Ameztegui
a,
, Lluís Coll
a,b
a
Forest Sciences Center of Catalonia (CTFC), Ctra. Sant Llorenç de Morunys km.2, E-25280 Solsona, Spain
b
CREAF, Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Bellaterra E-08193, Catalonia, Spain
article info
Article history:
Received 11 January 2013
Received in revised form 12 March 2013
Accepted 8 April 2013
Available online 6 May 2013
Keywords:
Seedlings
Plant–plant interactions
Elevational gradient
Climate change
Pyrenees
Facilitation
abstract
The predicted upward displacement of forest species due to climate warming is expected to be modu-
lated by a medley of abiotic and biotic factors acting at microsite level. Species-specific differences in
plant responses to this set of environmental factors can thus have strong implications in the future
dynamics of forest ecosystems. To gain a better understanding of the main fine-scale factors and pro-
cesses driving present and future species performance in the montane and subalpine belt of the Eastern
Pyrenees (NE Spain), we established a set of experimental mixed plantations along elevational and envi-
ronmental gradients using the four tree species dominating these areas (Pinus sylvestris,Pinus uncinata,
Abies alba and Betula pendula). Once the plantations had been established, the performance and growth
of 72 seedlings of each species was monitored and linear and non-linear models were fitted to identify
the main factors controlling their survival and growth.
We found most of the mortality to occur during the third growing season, following a harsh winter and
a drought period during summer. Mortality patterns were highly species- and site-specific. At the subal-
pine belt, shrubs were found to have a facilitative effect on winter survival of P. sylvestris (mortal-
ity < 10%) but not on the other species. At the montane belt, A. alba mortality during the summer
increased in areas with high light exposure and herbaceous cover (mortality > 30%). All species except
P. uncinata showed lower height growth at high elevation, with differences between sites matching dif-
ferences in growing season duration (20%).
Our results underline the strong impact that short periods of extreme climate can have in the perfor-
mance of plants developing in mountainous areas far from their optimal elevational range. However, they
also underline a potentially critical role played by biotic and abiotic microsite factors in mediating species
responses to these climatic events.
Ó2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
The predicted increase in temperatures caused by global warm-
ing (IPCC, 2007) is expected to have large effects on mountain eco-
systems, where the elevational ranges of trees are mainly
controlled by temperature (Grabherr et al., 1994; Walther et al.,
2002; Peñuelas and Boada, 2003; Lenoir et al., 2008). Accordingly,
most simulations based on ‘climate envelopes’ predict upward or
poleward displacement of species under future warming scenarios
(Guisan et al., 1998; Dullinger et al., 2004), with some species even
becoming extinct if the rate of change exceeds their pace of biolog-
ical response (Thomas et al., 2004; Thuiller et al., 2005). However,
realized ecological niches are multidimensional, and species distri-
bution is not only explained by macro-climate but also by species-
specific responses to a medley of abiotic and biotic factors that of-
ten operate at finer temporal and spatial scales (Vetaas, 2002; Wal-
ther et al., 2002; Dullinger et al., 2004; Holtmeier and Broll, 2005).
The effects of these factors are often not adequately captured by
the ‘climate envelope’ models (Ackerly et al., 2010; Scherrer and
Körner, 2011), sometimes leading to unrealistic predictions of spe-
cies distributional changes (Randin et al., 2009; Willis and Bhag-
wat, 2009; Martínez et al., 2012).
In many mountain ecosystems, abiotic stresses are considered
the major mechanism setting the upper limit of species’ elevational
ranges. To successfully migrate upwards, tree species must be able
to grow and survive outside their current elevational range, thus
facing climatic conditions that are at the limits of their physiolog-
ical tolerance (Lenoir et al., 2009, 2010), particularly at their youn-
ger stages (Germino et al., 2002; Gómez-Aparicio et al., 2008a).
Therefore, in these areas, short periods of extreme climatic condi-
tions (e.g. extreme cold or freezing events) play a critical role in
shaping future species composition (Schneider, 2004; Lindner
et al., 2010). However, some recent studies have shown that mi-
0378-1127/$ - see front matter Ó2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.04.011
Corresponding author. Tel.: +34 973481752.
E-mail address: aitor.ameztegui@ctfc.cat (A. Ameztegui).
Forest Ecology and Management 303 (2013) 25–34
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cro-topographical factors can buffer or even override the effects of
harsh climate on plant survival (Ackerly et al., 2010; Scherrer and
Körner, 2011). Positive plant–plant interactions could also play a
major role in these stressful environments, as postulated by the
‘stress-gradient hypothesis’ (SGH; (Bertness and Callaway, 1994;
Maestre et al., 2009). Shrubs for example are known to facilitate
the survival of young plants of species growing at their upper ele-
vational limit by reducing wind abrasion, mitigating the minimum
temperatures to which they are exposed, protecting them from
radiation, or reducing snowdrift (Batllori et al., 2009; Barbeito
et al., 2012).
Conversely, competitive effects are considered the major mech-
anism setting the lower limit of species’ elevational ranges (Lenoir
et al., 2010). However, this might not occur when environmental
severity increases at low elevation. In such cases, species’ sensitiv-
ity to the main stress factor (e.g. drought in Mediterranean moun-
tains) would significantly define its lower range margin (Macias
et al., 2006; Candel-Pérez et al., 2012; Linares and Camarero,
2012). Other processes not directly related to climate, such as hab-
itat modification due to changes in human activities have led to se-
vere canopy closure in many European forests (Poyatos et al., 2003;
Ameztegui et al., 2010), which can also induce significant shifts in
species distribution, even favoring downslope displacement of
some shade-tolerant species (Lenoir et al., 2010; Bodin et al., 2013).
In the Pyrenees, the rise in temperatures associated to climate
change has prompted predictions of species displacements (Resco
et al., 2006) with a progressive upward encroachment of montane
species into the subalpine belt (Ameztegui and Coll, 2011). How-
ever, these areas are characterized by a high variability of abiotic
and biotic factors acting at local scale, whose role in these appar-
ently climate-driven processes remains unclear. With the ultimate
aim of advancing understanding of the relative impact of these fac-
tors in the future dynamics of the Pyrenean mountainous forests,
we set up a 4-year field experiment in which seedlings of the 4
most widespread tree species in the montane and subalpine belt
of the Eastern Pyrenees (Pinus sylvestris L., Pinus uncinata Ram,
Abies alba Mill. and Betula pendula Roth.) were planted along gradi-
ents of elevation and microsite conditions (light availability and
herbaceous and shrub cover). Specifically, we aimed to answer
the following questions: (i) how does the performance (survival
and growth) of these species vary along environmental gradients
including variation in climate, light availability and biotic interac-
tions?; (ii) what role do short extreme climatic events play in seed-
ling survival and growth?; (iii) are the intensity and sign of biotic
interactions (competitive vs. facilitative) species-specific?; and (iv)
can plant-plant interactions favor or limit species range expansion
by modulating the effects of climate change through facilitation
and competition?
We hypothesized that climate (minimum temperatures at high
elevation and drought at low elevation) would play a determinant
role in seedling mortality, but that biotic interactions could par-
tially buffer this effect, especially for those species established far
from their optimal elevational range.
2. Methods
2.1. Study area
The experiment was conducted at two different elevations in
the northern slopes of the Serra del Cadí, a Pyrenean mountain
range in the Cadí-Moixerò Natural Park (42°17
0
N; 1°42
0
E). The
‘‘low-elevation’’ plots were located in the montane belt, slightly
below the P. sylvestris–P. uncinata transition zone (around
1500 m a.s.l.). The forest overstory in this site was dominated by
P. sylvestris (more than 75% of total basal area) with some P. unci-
nata and B. pendula individuals, whereas the main species in the
understory were common box (Buxus sempervirens L.) and common
juniper (Juniperus communis L.). The ‘‘high-elevation’’ plots were lo-
cated in the subalpine belt (around 2000 m a.s.l.), close to the opti-
mum elevational distribution for P. uncinata. In this site, the
overstory was overwhelmingly dominated by P. uncinata, although
some disperse individuals of A. alba and B. pendula could be found.
The shrub layer was almost exclusively composed by J. communis.
These two areas (located in the same valley but set 12 km apart)
present contrasting climates associated to the abrupt terrain
involving marked elevational zonation of the vegetation (Ninot
et al., 2007).
2.2. Species selection and characteristics
This study focused on the 4 most widespread tree species in the
area: Scots pine (P. sylvestris), a shade-intolerant species that in the
Pyrenees can be found between 1000 and 1800 m a.s.l., thus dom-
inating the montane belt of the Pyrenees; mountain pine (P. unci-
nata), a shade-intolerant conifer that reaches its southern
distributional limit in the Iberian Peninsula and constitutes most
of the treelines in the Pyrenees as it is restricted to the subalpine
belt (between 1600 and 2300 m a.s.l.); silver fir (A. alba), the most
shade-tolerant conifer species in the Pyrenees, usually restricted to
humid sites on north-facing, shady slopes between 1200 and
2000 m a.s.l. where the risk of water stress in summer is lower
(Macias et al., 2006); and silver birch (B. pendula), a shade-intoler-
ant pioneer species that usually colonizes disturbed areas between
1000 and 1800 m a.s.l. but only rarely reaches the canopy (Ruiz de
la Torre, 2006). These species differ in their ecological require-
ments, and they can be ordered from most (rank = 5) to least
(rank = 1) shade tolerant following the ranking system developed
by Niinemets and Valladares (2006):A. alba (4.6 ± 0.06;
mean ± SE), B. pendula (2.03 ± 0.09), P. sylvestris (1.67 ± 0.33), and
P. uncinata (1.2). Moreover, the drought tolerance ranking order
according to the same authors would be: P. sylvestris
(4.34 ± 0.47); P. uncinata (3.88), B. pendula (1.85 ± 0.21) and A. alba
(1.81 ± 0.28). Despite their different ecological requirements, these
four species are able to coexist in a strip between 1600 and
2000 m a.s.l. constituting the local montane-subalpine mixed
forest.
2.3. Experimental design
At each one of the two sites, 72 two-year-old seedlings of each
of the 4 studied species were distributed into 12 plots and planted
in early summer 2008. Plot size varied between 40 and 50 m
2
and
each plot included 24 seedlings (6 per species) planted at least one
meter apart to avoid interaction between them. Half of the plots
were located in the forest understory and the other half in natu-
rally-occurring gaps (Fig. 1). Gap surface was between 150 and
350 m
2
(196.0 ± 33.4 m
2
; mean ± SE). Seedlings were randomly
distributed across each plot, and were carefully planted to mini-
mize alteration of the micro-environment. As domestic herds of
cattle and horses are led into these forests during the summer,
the seedlings were protected from browsing with an individual
protector (90 cm height and 33 cm of diameter) with a
20 20 mm mesh net (Nortène, Lille, France) to exclude the influ-
ence of animal damage. All the seedlings were 2 years old at the
time of planting and had been grown in a local nursery (Forestal
Catalana, Pobla de Lillet, Spain) from seeds collected in neighboring
forests. For all species, seedling source, nursery and plantation area
were all inside the same region of provenance (Alía et al., 2005).
26 A. Ameztegui, L. Coll / Forest Ecology and Management 303 (2013) 25–34
2.4. Characterization of the environment and explanatory variables
To better characterize climatic differences between the two
sites, two meteorological stations were installed (one per site),
and air temperature (at 1 m height), below-ground soil tempera-
ture (at 10 cm depth) and precipitation were measured continu-
ously using ECH2O sensors (Decagon Devices, Pullman, WA, USA;
see Table 1). Data from the in situ meteorological stations regis-
tered high climatic variability over the 4 years of the study. In Au-
gust and early September 2011, there was a rather warm and dry
period (with 60% less precipitation than the average for the last
10 years, Fig. 2) that exposed the vegetation to a significant
drought stress that was visually appreciable even in the adult
stand. The winters of 2009 and 2010 were particularly cold, with
minimum temperatures reaching 15.8 °C in the high-elevation
sites. In early winter 2010, the cold period coincided with low pre-
cipitations, resulting in the shallowest snow layer seen in recent
years (Fig. 2). Throughout the duration of the study, the seedlings
established at high elevation (subalpine sites) were exposed to
lower mean temperatures, higher precipitations, higher Thorn-
thwaite index and a 20% shorter growing period than the seedlings
established at lower elevation (Table 1).
To characterize the microsite conditions of the planted seed-
lings, light availability, percentage of herbaceous cover and dis-
tance to nearest shrub were measured for each of the seedlings
(Table 1). Light availability was measured using two Li-190SA
quantum sensors (Li-COR, Lincoln, NE, USA). The sensors were used
in paired mode, i.e. one of the sensors was placed at the top of each
seedling and the other in an adjacent open area, following standard
procedure (see Messier and Puttonen (1995) and Parent and Mess-
ier (1996) for a complete description of the method). This approach
Table 1
Main abiotic and biotic characteristics of the studied stands.
Variable Montane sites Subalpine sites
Latitude (N)/longitude (E) 42°19
0
/1°43
0
42°18
0
/1°42
0
Elevation (m a.s.l.) 1550 1955
Aspect/slope (degrees) NE/39 NE/53
Bedrock Limestone Limestone
Mean annual/summer temperature (°C) 7.4/14.8 4.9/11.7
Total annual/summer precipitation (mm) 992/271 1118/327
Thornthwaite index
a
70.3 120.7
Length of the growing season
b
(days) 194 147
Mean summer maximum temperature (°C) 21.0 17.3
Mean winter minimum temperature (°C) 3.4 4.6
Dominant species
c
Ps, Pu, Bp Pu, Aa, Bp
Light availability (%PPFD) 19.3 ± 9.8
[2.8–55.1]
23.9 ± 13.3
[5.4–58.6]
Herbaceous cover (%) 39.1 ± 23.1
[0–95]
51.1 ± 30.6
[0–100]
Distance to nearest shrub (cm) 56.5 ± 45.8
[10–350]
118.9 ± 76.3
[20–430]
Values for light availability, herbaceous cover, and distance to nearest shrub are
means ± SD (n= 286). Values in brackets are minimum and maximum observed
values. The number of decimal positions indicates precision of the variable when
measured.
a
Calculated as the ratio between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration
(Thornthwaite et al., 1957).
b
Calculated as in Körner and Paulsen (2004).
c
Listed for each site in decreasing order of dominance: Pu: Pinus uncinata; Aa:
Abies alba; Ps: Pinus sylvestris; Bp: Betula pendula.
Fig. 1. Representation of the experimental design and the measured abiotic and biotic variables. At each of the two sites (montane and subalpine belt), 6 plots were located in
the forest understory and 6 in naturally-occurring gaps. At each plot, 24 seedlings (6 per species) were planted, and environmental variables at the microsite scale (light
availability, herbaceous cover, and distance to nearest shrub) were measured.
A. Ameztegui, L. Coll / Forest Ecology and Management 303 (2013) 25–34 27
makes it possible to calculate light availability as a percentage of
transmitted photosynthetic photon flux density (%PPFD), and con-
sequently ranged from 0 (complete obstruction) to 100 (open sky).
The measurements showed mean light availability to be slightly
higher in the subalpine plantations, but the range was similar at
both elevational sites, with a maximum of about 60% (Table 1). Per-
centage of herbaceous cover surrounding the seedlings was visu-
ally estimated to the nearest 5% using an 80 80 cm grid
centered on each seedling, and was found to be higher overall at
the subalpine belt (although extremely variable, with values rang-
ing from 0% to 90–95% at both sites). Finally, distance from each
seedling to the nearest shrub was measured with a tape meter.
Fig. 2. Evolution of precipitation, monthly average of the maximum (TMAX) and minimum (TMIN) temperatures and snow depth in the study area over the 4-year study
period (2008–2011). Dashed lines and shaded areas indicate mean ± SD during the last 10 years, whereas solid lines indicate measured values. Data are from the Prat d’Aguiló
meteorological station (2138 m a.s.l.), located less than 1 km away from the high-elevation site. Vertical arrows indicate the extreme climatic events that occurred during
late-autumn 2010 and summer 2011 (see text for further details).
28 A. Ameztegui, L. Coll / Forest Ecology and Management 303 (2013) 25–34
We defined a shrub as any woody plant with several stems arising
from the base, so other elements such as neighbor seedlings, adult
trees, logs or rocks were not considered. The montane sites showed
higher shrub density, resulting in a lower mean distance of seed-
lings to the nearest shrub (Table 1).
2.5. Seedling monitoring
Seedling mortality was regularly monitored throughout the
duration of the experiment. With the aim of disentangling the
main climatic variables driving mortality for each species at each
elevation, we divided the observed mortality into either summer
mortality (occurring during the growing season) or winter mortal-
ity (occurring during the winter). The plots were frequently visited,
and we only assigned mortality to a given period (summer or win-
ter) when plants were found to be dead in the beginning of a period
but had been recorded as healthy (absence of any symptom of dis-
ease) at the end of the previous one. Despite the protective net, se-
ven seedlings were damaged by animals, mainly by trampling, and
were subsequently excluded from the analysis. Furthermore, 13
seedlings died due to small disturbances (e.g. stones falling, small
landslides, etc.) and were also excluded, giving a total of 552 seed-
lings analyzed.
Seedling size was monitored by measuring total height and
diameter at the root collar at the end of every growing season.
Using this dataset, we determined the following response vari-
ables: (1) survival rate along the 39 months of the study; (2) winter
and summer mortality; (3) height at the end of the study period;
and (4) diameter at the end of the study period.
2.6. Data analyses
For each species and site (montane vs. subalpine), survival func-
tion curves were developed based on Kaplan–Meier estimates, and
the Mantel–Cox log-rank test was used to determine significant
differences between sites. To test the effect of categorical or con-
tinuous covariates on our censored survival data, we used a Mixed
Effects Cox model (Therneau and Grambsch, 2000), which is a
modification of the commonly used Cox’s Proportional Hazards
(coxPH) model (Cox, 1972) that allows for inclusion of random
covariates. For each combination of response variable (summer
and winter mortality) and species, we fitted a separate model in
which the effects of the three explanatory variables at microsite le-
vel (herbaceous cover, distance to shrubs, and light availability)
and elevation (site) were introduced as fixed factors, whereas plot
was introduced as a random factor. The equation fitted by the
model was:
kðtÞ¼k
0
ðtÞe
XbþZb
bG0;XðhÞ

where k
0
(t) is an unspecified baseline hazard function, Xand Zare
the design matrices for the fixed and random effects, respectively,
bis the vector of fixed-effects coefficients, and b is the vector of ran-
dom effects coefficients. When comparing two groups, the hazard
ratio (e
b
) is the quotient of the hazard functions for each of the
groups. For a continuous variable, the hazard ratio indicates the
change in the risk of mortality if the parameter in question rises
by one unit. The random effects distribution Gis modeled as Gauss-
ian with mean zero and a variance matrix
R
, which in turn depends
on a vector of parameters h. To test the significance of each variable,
we performed a likelihood ratio test (LRT) to compare deviances of a
pair of nested models: a null model (in which the variable was ab-
sent) and an alternative model including it. Interactions between
variables were only included if the LRT of the model indicated sig-
nificant difference with both the simpler models. Goodness-of-fit of
the models was assessed through the concordance statistic (C),
Fig. 3. Survival curves for seedlings of the four species of trees planted at the two experimental sites over the course of the study period, based on Kaplan–Meier estimates.
Black and grey lines represent seedlings in the montane and subalpine belts, respectively. Solid lines represent Kaplan–Meier estimates whereas dashed lines are 95%
confidence intervals. P-values indicate significance of the log-rank test between sites for each species. Shaded areas in the x-axis correspond to the vegetative period (from
May to October). Note that the y-axis starts at 0.5 for greater clarity and easier comparison among species.
A. Ameztegui, L. Coll / Forest Ecology and Management 303 (2013) 25–34 29
which is analogous to Kendall’s tau between the prediction and the
outcome but can be used with censored data.
Several model formulations (linear, exponential, power and
Michaelis–Menten; see Appendices for details on the model equa-
tions) were used to analyze the effect of the different explanatory
variables (light availability, herbaceous cover and distance to near-
est shrub) on seedling size (height and diameter) at the end of the
study period (39 months). Initial seedling size was introduced as a
covariate with an exponent
a
to allow for non-linear relationships
between final and initial size. The maximum likelihood parameter
values were estimated using simulated annealing (Goffe et al.,
1994) and the asymptotic 2-unit support intervals were used to as-
sess the strength of evidence for individual maximum likelihood
parameter estimates. The R
2
of the regression of observed vs. pre-
dicted values provided a measure of the goodness-of-fit of each
model, and alternative models were compared using
D
AICc, the
difference in corrected Akaike information criterion (Burnham
and Anderson, 2002). Following the likelihood approach, we used
comparison of alternate models to test our hypotheses. For each
explanatory variable, the best of the 4 formulations (linear, expo-
nential, power and Michaelis–Menten) was compared (in terms
of
D
AICc) to a null model in which there was no effect of the inde-
pendent variable, and we considered that an effect of this variable
was supported when
D
AICc > 2. When there was substantial sup-
port for more than one independent variable, we also tested a
bivariate model in which both variables were included, and the
strength of evidence for this model was compared with univariate
models. Finally, when the best model had been identified, we also
tested for an effect of elevation by comparing the strength of evi-
dence of a model in which parameters were estimated separately
for low- and high-elevation sites against another model in which
all the data were pooled together, and we retained the first model
only if it was substantially supported by the data (
D
AICc > 2).
All analyses were performed using R 2.14.1 software (R Devel-
opment Core Team, 2011) and the ‘likelihood’ v. 1.5 (Murphy,
2012), ‘survival’ v. 2.37–2 (Therneau, 2011) and ‘coxme’ v.2.2–3
(Therneau, 2012) packages for R.
3. Results
3.1. Seedling survival
Survival rate after three growing seasons was significantly dif-
ferent among species (P< 0.001) and ranged from more than 80%
for P. uncinata to less than 65% for P. sylvestris. For the three conifer
species (A. alba,P. sylvestris and P. uncinata), most of the mortality
at both elevations (more than 60% of total dead seedlings) was ob-
served during the third year. Between-site differences in survival
rates were only significant for P. sylvestris (P< 0.001) and A. alba
(P= 0.044; Fig. 3). These species presented opposite patterns, with
P. sylvestris showing higher mortality in subalpine sites and A. alba
showing higher mortality in montane sites. The seasonal patterns
of mortality were also species-specific. While most of the P. unci-
nata and A. alba mortality occurred during the growing season,
for the other two species it occurred during the winter (Fig. 3).
P. sylvestris was the only species that showed an effect of the
explanatory variables on winter mortality. The winter mortality
of P. sylvestris was found to be positively associated with elevation
(hazard ratio [HR] = 4.13; 95% CI: 2.15–7.95; P< 0.001) and with
seedling distance to the nearest shrub (HR = 1.004; 95% CI:
1.002–1.007; P< 0.001; Fig. 4). At the subalpine belt, mortality rate
for seedlings planted at less than 0.5 m from a shrub was 0.11,
whereas mortality rate for the rest of the seedlings ranged between
0.28 and 0.44. The positive effect of the shrubs on winter survival
was not as marked at the montane belt, where mortality rates ran-
ged from 0 to 0.13, but we did not find a significant effect of the
interaction between distance to nearest shrub and elevation
(P= 0.112). For the other three species (P. uncinata,B. pendula
and A. alba), we could not detect an effect of any of the explanatory
variables (including elevation) on winter mortality (Appendix A).
A. alba was the only species that showed a significant effect of
the analyzed abiotic and biotic factors on summer mortality. For
Fig. 4. Predicted variation in the log hazard ratio for winter mortality as a function
of distance to nearest shrub for P. sylvestris seedlings planted at montane (black)
and subalpine (grey) sites in the Eastern Pyrenees. Solid lines represent predicted
models whereas shaded areas correspond to 95% confidence intervals.
Fig. 5. Predicted variation in the log hazard ratio for summer mortality as a
function of (a) light availability and (b) percentage of herbaceous cover, for A. alba
seedlings planted at montane (black) and subalpine (grey) sites in the Eastern
Pyrenees. In (a), no significant effect of site was detected, and pooled data for both
sites are represented in dark grey. Solid lines represent predicted models whereas
shaded areas correspond to 95% confidence intervals.
30 A. Ameztegui, L. Coll / Forest Ecology and Management 303 (2013) 25–34
A. alba, both herbaceous cover and light availability were positively
associated with mortality. The analyses also revealed a significant
correlation between both variables (Pearson correlation coeffi-
cient = 0.21 for the montane belt; 0.42 for the subalpine belt) and
the bivariate model including them was not significantly better
than the univariate models. Herbaceous cover showed the most
significant effect on mortality (P< 0.001), and we found a signifi-
cant interaction between this variable and site (P< 0.001): the ef-
fect of herbaceous cover on mortality was only significant at the
montane belt, where the observed mortality rate ranged from
0.08 for low classes of herbaceous cover (<20%) to 0.33 for seed-
lings planted in sites with more than 80% herbaceous cover
(HR = 1.120; 95% CI: 1.047–1.198; P< 0.001; Fig. 5). Light availabil-
ity was also positively associated with a higher mortality rate
(HR = 1.056; 95% CI: 1.017–1.097; P= 0.036), with a maximum of
0.25 for seedlings with more than 40% PPFD available, but without
significant effect of elevation in this trend (P= 0.882; Fig. 5). An ef-
fect of herbaceous cover in the mortality of B. pendula was also de-
tected, although the model including this variable was only
marginally significant compared to the null model (HR = 1.020;
95% CI: 0.998–1.043; P= 0.055; Appendix B).
3.2. Seedling growth
There were significant among-species differences in absolute
height growth, which ranged from 15 mm y
1
for A. alba to more
than 70 mm y
1
for B. pendula (Table 3). These differences were
weaker when considering relative height growth, but B. pendula
still had higher growth than both pines, which in turn grew faster
in height than A. alba. All species showed higher relative height
growth at low-elevation sites, but the differences were not signif-
icant for P. uncinata (P = 0.73). In contrast, all species showed high-
er relative radial growth at the subalpine site, but the differences
were only significant for the two pine species (Table 3). However,
measured radial growth over the 3 years was rather low (annual
relative radial growth <0.1 mm for all species), and we discarded
it from further analyses as these values were below the measure-
ment accuracy.
Light availability was the main environmental factor controlling
height of the three conifer species (P. uncinata,P. sylvestris and A.
alba). For A. alba and P. sylvestris, the effect of light availability on
growth was modulated by elevation, with seedling growth show-
ing lower response to enhanced light (or almost null response in
the case of A. alba) at low elevation than at high elevation
(Fig. 6). For A. alba, the observed response was linear, whereas
for P. sylvestris it followed a power equation (Table 2;Fig. 6). These
differences in response with elevation were not observed for P.
uncinata, for which relative height growth increased with light
availability but was saturated at.% PPFD > 40%, following a Michae-
lis–Menten equation (Table 2;Fig. 6). For these species, the expo-
nent of the initial height (introduced as a covariate in the model)
ranged between 0.4 and 0.6, thus indicating a non-linear relation
between this variable and final height. In contrast, the relation be-
tween initial and final height growth was linear for B. pendula
Fig. 6. Predicted variation in height as a function of initial height and light availability for seedlings of the 4 studied species planted at montane (black) and subalpine (grey)
sites in the eastern Pyrenees. When no effect of elevation was predicted, data were pooled together, and symbols are represented in dark grey. Solid lines represent predicted
models whereas shaded areas correspond to 2-unit support intervals. Horizontal lines indicate lack of effect of the predictive variable for that species, and are shown for
comparative purposes.
A. Ameztegui, L. Coll / Forest Ecology and Management 303 (2013) 25–34 31
(
a
= 1.01), which was the only species for which there was no
detectable effect of microsite factors or elevation on height
(Appendix C).
4. Discussion
Mortality events in the established plots took place at different
periods of the year in the two studied elevations. At the subalpine
belt, a majority of mortality occurred during winter, whereas at the
montane belt a majority of mortality occurred during the growing
season. Although mortality was relatively low for all species during
the first two years after plantation, it sharply increased during the
third year when the area was exposed to a particularly cold late-
autumn and early-winter followed by a drought episode during
summer. The potentially strong impact of short events of extreme
climatic conditions on juvenile tree mortality has already been ob-
served elsewhere (Schneider, 2004; Saccone et al., 2009; Lindner
et al., 2010), and in our sites we observed marked species-specific
responses to these events. The harsh winter particularly affected P.
sylvestris plants growing in the subalpine belt, where this species
ranked as the least adapted to the climatic conditions, whereas
as expected, summer drought mainly affected A. alba, which is
the least drought-tolerant of the four studied species. Interestingly,
the negative effect of drought in A. alba survival was only observed
in the montane sites.
Positive plant-plant interactions were found to be species-spe-
cific and to vary with elevation, being particularly important for
the survival of species establishing at the extremes of their eleva-
tional range. This was the case for P. sylvestris seedlings, a species
typical of the montane belt and consequently the least adapted to
the harsh climate of the high-elevation plots. Our results agreed
with the stress-gradient hypothesis (Bertness and Callaway,
1994) and are consistent with previous research showing facilita-
tion to be more important for species planted at experimental sites
located at higher elevations than their distributional mean (Batllori
et al., 2009). Our results also stress the major role that facilitation
could play in modulating the effects of extreme climatic events
such the extremely cold late-autumn and winter of 2010 in our
experimental sites (Brooker et al., 2008; Saccone et al., 2009). We
did not find a facilitative effect of shrubs on B. pendula, A. alba or
P. uncinata plants. For the first two species, this could be explained
by the fact that they are less drought-tolerant than pines (in partic-
ular A. alba), and competition for water from the neighboring
shrubs may probably overcome their positive nurse effect. As
pointed out by Maestre et al. (2009), in extremely severe environ-
mental conditions, resource uptake by facilitators can overcome
their positive effect if the stress is resource-based and the benefi-
ciary species are not stress-tolerant. The lack of facilitative effects
of P. uncinata was not surprising, given that this species is the best
adapted to climate at the subalpine belt and presented relatively
low overall mortality over the course of the experiment.
At the montane belt, most of the mortality occurred during
summer and more specifically during the third year’s growing sea-
son when the area was exposed to a major drought episode. This
event mainly affected A. alba, a species well-known to be highly
sensitive to water deficit, being negatively affected by high tem-
perature conditions and the related drought stress (Rolland et al.,
1999; Pagès et al., 2003; Peguero-Pina et al., 2007; Toromani
et al., 2011). The positive effect of light closure on A. alba survival
might indicate a facilitative effect of tree cover on A. alba seedlings
by reducing the Vapor Pressure Deficit to which the seedlings were
exposed and thus indirectly limiting the development of competi-
tive herbaceous neighbors (Pagès et al., 2003; Saccone et al., 2009).
This indirect facilitative effect of canopy cover seemed to be partic-
ularly important in our study sites given the marked negative rela-
tionship found between herbaceous cover and A. alba survival, that
was probably associated to competition for water. The herbaceous
cover also increased mortality of B. pendula in the montane belt,
although this effect was only marginally significant. In general, B.
pendula is considered to tolerate drought much better than A. alba
but shows a lower ability to compete for water than pines (Prevo-
sto and Balandier, 2007).
In the montane site, we expected to find a positive effect of
shrubs on plant survival (at least for the most drought-sensitive
species) after the marked drought period that occurred during
the third growing season. In the drier areas of Mediterranean
mountains, seedlings frequently benefit from habitat amelioration
by shrubs which reduce the radiation and temperature to which
they are exposed and thereby improve their water status (Castro
et al., 2002, 2004; Gómez-Aparicio et al., 2004, 2008b) However,
we did not detect any positive effect of shrubs on plant survival,
indicating that in this relatively mesic area, the net effect of the
and negative interactions occurring above- and below-ground be-
tween the shrubs and the seedlings was neutral.
Interestingly, we did not observe a higher mortality of P. unci-
nata in the montane belt, where this species was planted below
its current elevational range, and neither biotic nor abiotic factors
exerted any influence on the rate of P. uncinata mortality. Although
the lower limit of species’ elevational ranges in Mediterranean
mountains is often considered to be set by drought-induced stress
(Macias et al., 2006; Candel-Pérez et al., 2012; Linares and Camare-
ro, 2012), our results suggest that this might not be the case for P.
uncinata. It is possible that the current low elevational limit of P.
uncinata is not climatically-driven but is instead set by other fac-
tors, such as competitive interactions with low-elevation species,
mainly P. sylvestris (Callaway et al., 2002; Ameztegui and Coll,
2011).
In contrast to the abovementioned species-specific and tempo-
ral patterns, all the species studied grew faster in height in the
montane belt than in the subalpine belt. Growth is known to be
mainly limited by duration of the growing season in high-elevation
forests (Grace and Norton, 1990; Grace et al., 2002; Hoch and Kör-
ner, 2003; Cailleret and Davi, 2010). Here, the average reduction in
growth (20%) found in P. sylvestris, A. alba and B. pendula seedlings
matched the average difference in length of the growing season ob-
Table 2
Summary of the models predicting seedling height as a function of microsite
conditions and initial height for seedlings of four species of trees planted at two
experimental sites in the Eastern Pyrenees. For each species and explanatory variable,
the AIC of the best-fit model is provided for all seedlings pooled together (AIC
P
) and
separated into two groups (montane vs. subalpine, AIC
S
).
Height Model AIC
P
AIC
S
R
2
Pinus uncinata
Light MM 2113.58 2123.75 0.33
Herb. cover Lin 2136.17 2141.73 0.21
Null Null 2207.46 2201.72 0.12
Abies alba
Light Lin 1669.49 1673.84 0.41
Herb. cover Lin 1676.75 1679.01 0.30
Null Null 1688.31 1688.16 0.25
Pinus sylvestris
Light Pow 2067.94 2055.57 0.36
Herb. cover Lin 2076.28 2063.71 0.22
Null Null 2085.66 2078.33 0.18
Betula pendula
Null Null 1771.06 1775.33 0.22
Factors are ranked from highest to lowest support according to AIC
P
. For each
species, only models with stronger empirical support than the null model (i.e. an
AIC
P
at least two units lower) are provided. Models are: Lin = linear; Exp = expo-
nential, Pow = power, MM = Michaelis–Menten; see Appendix C for details on the
equations. Lower AIC
S
values than AIC
P
values indicate stronger empirical support
for separated data than for pooled data, i.e. an elevational effect.
32 A. Ameztegui, L. Coll / Forest Ecology and Management 303 (2013) 25–34
served between both sites during the experiment (Table 3). In con-
trast, P. uncinata (the species currently dominating the subalpine
belt) presented the same height growth–light relationship at both
elevations, following the typical saturating curve for environments
where light is the most limiting factor (Ameztegui and Coll, 2011).
However, the height growth of all species increased with higher
light availability, thus indicating that the microsite requirements
for seedling survival were different from those required for growth,
as observed in the Alps by Barbeito et al. (2012).
In summary, this study showed that short periods of extreme
climate can have a strong impact on the mortality of species grow-
ing far from their mean elevational range (e.g. P. sylvestris in the
subalpine belt; A. alba at the montane belt). We found that positive
plant–plant interactions can play a critical role in mediating the ef-
fects of these unfavorable climate conditions on the performance
of these species when growing above their current limits. In con-
trast, in the lower limit of species’ elevational ranges, competition
plays a more important role. Overall, we conclude that species-spe-
cific differences in performance under different environmental
conditions and the role of plant–plant interactions should be
explicitly considered when making predictions of climate
change-induced species displacement and when designing or
implementing management plans to contend with the impacts of
climate change.
Acknowledgements
This research was primarily supported by the Spanish Ministry
of Science and Innovation via the projects Consolider-Ingenio Mon-
tes (CSD2008-00040), DINAMIX (AGL2009-13270-C02) and RESIL-
FOR (AGL2012-40039-C02-01). The Spanish Ministry of Science
provided LC with support through a Ramon y Cajal contract
(RYC-2009-04985), and the Spanish Ministry of Education pro-
vided AA with support through a predoctoral grant (FPU Program
– AP2007-01663). The authors are particularly grateful to A. Barg-
ués, S. Martín, L. Ivorra and M. Pallarés for their invaluable work
during field sampling and laboratory processing. F. Cano helped
us to find the most suitable forests for this study, and the Socarrel
team kindly offered their facilities during the fieldwork stage. We
also thank the ‘Parc Natural del Cadí-Moixeró’ and the ‘Montellà i
Martinet’ municipality for kindly giving permission to access the
park and sample the data. Three anonymous reviewers provided
helpful comments and suggestions.
Appendix A. Supplementary material
Supplementary data associated with this article can be found, in
the online version, at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2013.
04.011.
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34 A. Ameztegui, L. Coll / Forest Ecology and Management 303 (2013) 25–34
... We used the regular survival inventories in the spring and autumn of 2015-2016 on the three study sites (GRO, OLD, SCH) where such regular assessments were available to obtain the half-year resolution (for methodological details, see Ameztegui and Coll 2013). The summer period was defined as the time between data acquisition in spring (March-June) and autumn (October-November). ...
... Thus, individual plant morphological and physiological attributes defining seedling quality seem to be the most important in shaping plant performance at the time of establishment. The losses that occur later are usually unrelated to planting stress or seedling quality but due to other factors (Burschel and Huss 1987), for example competing ground vegetation and climatic extremes (Ameztegui and Coll 2013;Davis et al. 1999). The tending treatments conducted to control competing vegetation are likely to have increased the plant survival of all species at all sites. ...
... Our results are restricted to an observation period of 50 months, during which no potentially lethal climatic extremes, such as severe summer droughts or strong late frosts, occurred. This period is too short to draw conclusions about the long-term survival of the species studied since the order of their survival rates can change over decades and during longer time periods (Ameztegui and Coll 2013, Binder 1992, Barbeito et al. 2012. To obtain robust conclusions, the suitability of non-native tree species in a changing climate needs to be followed for at least several decades so that the likelihood that the plants will be exposed to climate extremes and pathogens is high. ...
Article
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Climate projections indicate large increases in temperature, requiring tree species to adapt or migrate faster than observed historic rates. In Central Europe, discussion in forest management has increasingly focused on how humans can assist these adaptation/migration processes, especially when important forest ecosystem services are at risk. One option is to introduce non-native tree species to help forest ecosystems adapt to climate change. We established a long-term experiment in autumn 2012 on five study sites in climatically different regions of Central Europe. The performance of five non-native tree species from warmer climates (Abies bornmuelleriana Mattf., Cedrus libani A. Rich., Fagus orientalis Lipsky, Tilia tomentosa Moench and Tsuga heterophylla Sarg.) was compared to that of one local species native to each site. We monitored sapling survival during the first 4 years after planting. Small differences in timing of inventory campaigns were overcome by fitting a Weibull function to survival curves and analysing time-harmonized estimates for equal biannual periods. Sapling mortality decreased over time, but early after planting, it differed between species. The native and the two non-native broadleaved species showed higher survival than the non-native coniferous species. Moreover, the site conditions of the open areas seemed to initially hamper the growth of shade-tolerant species. All species performed reasonably well during the relatively short observation period. Any differences between hazard rates almost vanished 4 years after planting, which suggests that all species tested are likely to thrive under current climate conditions. Long-term observations are, however, needed to corroborate these results.
... Finally, our results suggest that facilitation, commonly thought to influence plants most strongly at their upper elevation range limits, might often play a stronger role at lower elevations than commonly assumed. It is of course possible that facilitation is still pivotal for the establishment of small-seeded species or for species establishing at even higher elevations than our field site (Choler et al. 2001;Batllori et al. 2009;Barbeito et al. 2012;Ameztegui and Coll 2013;Stephan et al. 2021). In sum, further disentangling the positive and negative components of plant−plant interactions should help us to develop a more nuanced understanding of, and potentially a better ability to predict, how species interactions mediate climate change impacts on plant communities. ...
Article
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Deciphering how plants interact with each other across environmental gradients is important to understand plant community assembly, as well as potential future plant responses to environmental change. Plant−plant interactions are expected to shift from predominantly negative (i.e. competition) to predominantly positive (i.e. facilitation) along gradients of environmental severity. However, most experiments examine the net effects of interactions by growing plants in either the presence or absence of neighbours, thereby neglecting the interplay of both negative and positive effects acting simultaneously within communities. To partially unravel these effects, we tested how the seedling establishment of 10 mountain grassland plants varied in the presence versus absence of plant communities at two sites along an elevation gradient. We created a third experimental treatment (using plastic plant mats to mimic surrounding vegetation) that retained the main hypothesised benefits of plant neighbours (microsite amelioration), while reducing a key negative effect (competition for soil resources). In contrast to our expectations, we found evidence for net positive effects of vegetation at the low elevation site, and net negative effects at the high elevation site. Interestingly, the negative effects of plant neighbours at high elevation were driven by high establishment rates of low elevation grasses in bare soil plots. At both sites, establishment rates were highest in artificial vegetation (after excluding two low elevation grasses at the high elevation site), indicating that positive effects of above-ground vegetation are partially offset by their negative effects. Our results demonstrate that both competition and facilitation act jointly to affect community structure across environmental gradients, while emphasising that competition can be strong also at higher elevations in temperate mountain regions. Consequently, plant−plant interactions are likely to influence the establishment of new, and persistence of resident, species in mountain plant communities as environments change.
... In several Mediterranean mountain forests, abiotic stressors are recognised as drivers of the upper limit of a species altitudinal range (Ameztegui and Coll 2013) and can be controlled and/or facilitated by other secondary drivers (Lenoir et al. 2009). Although climate change is considered one of the main drivers of environmental changes, the uncertainties regarding its present and future impacts on biological diversity and the forecasting of species responses to these changes represent a challenge for ecological studies and biodiversity conservation strategies (Rabasa et al. 2013;Rubenstein et al. 2020). ...
Article
Anthropogenic global warming represents a serious threat to mountain forest ecosystems. For more than two decades studies have increasingly reported tree species altitudinal range shifts in response to climate change. This paper is primarily addressed to ecologists with limited background on this topic and presents a review of the main studies investigating the impact of global warming on tree upward migration in high-mountain forests around the Mediterranean Basin. Various scientific databases were consulted, covering published literature between 2000 and 2021 that clearly indicate an upward shift of the main Mediterranean tree species (e.g. Pinus, Quercus, Abies and Fagus). From these studies, I intended to retrieve 1) the status of tree species upward shift; 2) the main drivers of this shift; and 3) the most common methods used. The results indicate that several tree species in the Mediterranean Basin are experiencing expansion and/or retraction at leading- and/or trailing-edges, respectively, although some are showing opposite movements or no changes. Climate warming and land-use changes are considered the main drivers of species range shifts. These shifts are frequently assessed through monitoring treeline changes along elevational gradients. Despite the considerable advances in these studies, there are large gaps for some Mediterranean tree species, which need particular attention.
... Most studies conducted in mountain areas predict an upward shift of forest communities in response to temperature increases (Guisan et al. 1998). However, other factors (i.e., land-use changes, disturbances, biotic interactions) also modulate these responses (Martín-Alcón et al. 2010;Ameztegui and Coll 2013;Ameztegui et al. 2016), which can lead to unforeseen dynamics such as downslope displacements (see Bodin et al. 2013). ...
Chapter
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Mountain forests in Europe have to face recently speeding-up phenomena related to climate change, reflected not only by the increases in the mean global temperature but also by frequent extreme events, that can cause a lot of various damages threatening forest stability. The crucial task of management is to adapt forests to environmental uncertainties using various strategies that should be undertaken to enhance forest resistance and resilience, as well as to maintain forest biodiversity and provision of ecosystem services at requested levels. Forests can play an important role in the mitigation of climate change. The stand features that increase forest climate smartness could be improved by applying appropriate silvicultural measures, which are powerful tools to modify forests. The chapter provides information on the importance of selected stand features in the face of climate change and silvicultural prescriptions on stand level focusing to achieve the required level of climate smartness. The selection of silvicultural prescriptions should be also supported by the application of simulation models. The sets of the various treatments and management alternatives should be an inherent part of adaptive forest management that is a leading approach in changing environmental conditions.
... More than half (n = 40) of the final 73 studies were published in the last six years. They cover a broad range of interactions, from fish algal-cultivation (Hata et al. 2010) to bird protective nesting associations (Quinn and Ueta 2008), Pyrenean tree facilitation (Ameztegui and Coll 2013) and insect gut symbioses (Zhang et al. 2019). Overall, 56 studies (77%) supported the hypothesis that positive interactions significantly impacted the realized niche or geographic range of species, while 17 did not. ...
Article
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The relationship between niche and distribution, and especially the role of biotic interactions in shaping species' geographic distributions, has gained increasing interest in the last two decades. Most ecological research has focused on negative species interactions, especially competition, predation and parasitism. Yet the relevance of positive interactions – mutualisms and commensalisms – have been brought to the fore in recent years by an increasing number of empirical studies exploring their impact on range limits. Based on a review of 73 studies from a Web of Science search, we found strong evidence that positive interactions can influence the extent of species' geographic or ecological ranges through a diversity of mechanisms. More specifically, we found that while obligate interactions, and especially obligate mutualisms, tend to constrain the ranges of one or both partners, facultative positive interactions tend to widen ranges. Nonetheless, there was more variation in effects of facultative interactions on range limits, pointing to important context-dependencies. Therefore, we propose that conceptual development in this field will come from studying ecological interactions in the context of networks of many species across environmental gradients, since pairwise interactions alone might overlook the indirect and environmentally-contingent effects that species have on each other in communities of many interacting species. Finally, our study also revealed key data gaps that limit our current understanding of the pervasiveness of effects that positive interactions have on species' ranges, highlighting potential avenues for future theoretical and experimental work.
... At the landscape scale, the spatial distribution of fuel characteristics across heterogeneous Mediterranean regions responds to the variability of overstory-understory species assemblages and structures. On the one hand, species composition is constrained by climate and other environmental factors, and the understory layer may be influenced by the structure and composition of the overstory, which regulates microenvironmental conditions and light availability (Ameztegui and Coll, 2013;Majasalmi and Rautiainen, 2020;Messier et al., 1998). On the other hand, Mediterranean forests have been modulated by natural disturbances and long and intense human activity since historical times (Keeley et al., 2012;Nocentini and Coll, 2013). ...
Article
Mediterranean forests are prone to fire and highly diverse in environmental conditions, species composition, and forest structure. While much is known about fire hazard and forest responses to fire in Mediterranean climate regions, our understanding of the spatial distribution of fuel characteristics and their dynamics remains incomplete. We hypothesized that fire hazard in heterogeneous Mediterranean regions is primarily explained by the variation in fuel loading and flammability characteristics of the understory layer across the landscape and over time. We used the Spanish National Forest Inventory data to estimate overstory and understory fuel characteristics, compare their spatial and temporal variations across Catalonia (NE Spain) over the last 25 years, and assess the role of climate conditions in explaining spatial distribution and dynamics of fuel characteristics. Our results showed that fuel characteristics strongly depend on the species composition of the overstory and understory layers. Fuel characteristics of both vegetation layers were significantly different and poorly correlated with each other. Although both strata showed significantly different rates of change in most fuel characteristics, the average changes were, in general, very small for the time window considered. Forests in the warmest and driest environments showed the highest flammability characteristics in both overstory and understory layers in contrast to mountain communities. We did not find, however, a remarkable effect of climatic conditions on the rates of change of fuel characteristics during the study period. Altogether, these findings confirm the importance of considering the spatial variation of fuel characteristics of different vegetation strata separately and provide critical information on forest vulnerability to develop appropriate fire mitigation policies in Mediterranean ecosystems.
... Later-successional species may establish in any of these surface cover types, probably with variable success in seedling recruitment (Jones and Del Moral 2005). Given that the outcome of biotic interactions varies along environmental stress gradients, the suitability of these surface cover types for vascular plant establishment may vary with climate conditions (Ameztegui and Coll 2013). In addition, species may shift microsite preferences for seedling establishment to adapt to changing environmental conditions (Rodriguez et al. 2017). ...
Article
Background : Despite extensive efforts to understand how biotic interactions and their effects on community dynamics respond to changes in environmental conditions many gaps in knowledge remain. Assessing the responses of biotic interactions involving little studied organisms, such as the biological soil crust (BSC), can widen our understanding of ecosystem functioning. Aims : The aims of this study were: (1) to quantify the effects of two pioneer communities, one of shrubs and the other of BSC, on the survival and early growth of Nothofagus pumilio tree seedlings on land exposed after glacier retreat, and (2) evaluate how these biotic effects changed according to spatial and inter-annual variations in environmental conditions. Methods : We conducted seedling transplants, replicated at four glacier forelands in the Patagonian Andes across a precipitation gradient in three microsite types at each site: bare soil, soil covered BSC, low-stature vegetation cover by the creeping dwarf-shrub Empetrum rubrum (ER). Results : N. pumilio seedling survival was related to inter-annual climatic variations, with cool-wet years associated with larger rates of survival. However, these effects depended on microsite conditions, with a tendency towards higher survival in microsites with BSC than ER; in both cases higher than bare soil. Conversely, microsite type was the dominant factor related to seedling leaf area, with a trend towards bigger leaves in bare soil. Conclusions : At regional scales, inter-annual climatic variability modulates N. pumilio colonisation on glacier forelands. However, microenvironmental differences imposed by cover type introduce important variations. We conclude that accounting for interactions between climate and pre-existing pioneer communities is essential for predicting climate change impacts on plant community development and in harsh environments.
... Accordingly, we only found a limited effect of soil characteristics on maximum canopy height, which can be explained by the covariation of the former with elevation. These results support previous studies at finer scales with seedlings of these species planted along elevation gradients (Ameztegui and Coll 2013;Coll and Ameztegui 2019). The relationship between elevation and maximum canopy height was much less clear for montane species, which suggests that the elevation constraint begins above the upper limit of these species, where only a few individuals can grow under favorable microclimatic conditions (only 3.5% of the observations for montane species were located above the breakpoint, as compared to 75% for Pinus uncinata, see Figure 1). ...
Article
Canopy height is an excellent indicator of forest productivity, biodiversity and other ecosystem functions. Yet, we know little about how elevation drives canopy height in mountain areas. Here we take advantage of an ambitious airborne LiDAR flight plan to assess the relationship between elevation and maximum forest canopy height, and discuss its implications for the monitoring of mountain forests’ responses to climate change. We characterized vegetation structure using Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) data provided by the Spanish Geographic Institute. For each ALS return within forested areas, we calculated the maximum canopy height in a 20 × 20 m grid, and then added information on potential drivers of maximum canopy height, including ground elevation, terrain slope and aspect, soil characteristics, and continentality. We observed a strong, negative, piece-wise response of maximum canopy height to increasing elevation, with a welldefined breakpoint (at 1623 ± 5 m) that sets the beginning of the relationship between both variables. Above this point, the maximum canopy height decreased at a rate of 1.7 m per each 100 m gain in elevation. Elevation alone explained 63% of the variance in maximum canopy height, much more than any other tested variable. We observed species- and aspect-specific effects of elevation on maximum canopy height that match previous local studies, suggesting common patterns across mountain ranges. Our study is the first regional analysis of the relationship between elevation and maximum canopy height at such spatial resolution. The tree-height decline breakpoint holds an intrinsic potential to monitor mountain forests, and can thus serve as a robust indicator to appraise the effects of climate change, and address fundamental questions about how tree development varies along elevation gradients at regional or global scales.
Preprint
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According to the stress gradient hypothesis (SGH), plant-plant interactions are expected to shift from predominantly negative (i.e. competition) to predominantly positive (i.e. facilitation) along gradients of environmental severity. The SGH has been particularly useful as a framework for understanding how plants interact with each other across elevation gradients, partly as a proxy for future responses to climate change. However, most experiments examine the net effects of interactions by growing plants in either the presence or absence of neighbours, thereby neglecting the interplay of both negative and positive effects acting simultaneously within communities. To partially unravel these effects, we tested how the seedling establishment of 10 montane grassland plants varied in the presence versus absence of plant communities at two sites along an elevation gradient. We created a third experimental treatment that retained the main hypothesised benefits of plant neighbours (microsite amelioration), while reducing a key negative effect (competition for soil resources). In contrast to predictions of the SGH, we found evidence for net positive effects of vegetation at the low site, and net negative effects at the high site. Interestingly, the surprisingly negative effects of plant neighbours at high elevation were driven by high establishment rates of low elevation grasses in bare soil plots. At both sites, establishment rates were highest in artificial vegetation (after excluding two low elevation grasses at the high site), indicating that positive effects of above-ground vegetation are partially offset by their negative effects. Our results demonstrate that both competition and facilitation act jointly to affect community structure across environmental gradients, while challenging the view that competition is weak at high elevation in temperate mountain regions. Consequently, plant-plant interactions are likely to influence the establishment of new, and persistence of resident, species in mountain plant communities as environments change.
Book
This is a book for statistical practitioners, particularly those who design and analyze studies for survival and event history data. Its goal is to extend the toolkit beyond the basic triad provided by most statistical packages: the Kaplan-Meier estimator, log-rank test, and Cox regression model. Building on recent developments motivated by counting process and martingale theory, it shows the reader how to extend the Cox model to analyse multiple/correlated event data using marginal and random effects (frailty) models. It covers the use of residuals and diagnostic plots to identify influential or outlying observations, assess proportional hazards and examine other aspects of goodness of fit. Other topics include time-dependent covariates and strata, discontinuous intervals of risk, multiple time scales, smoothing and regression splines, and the computation of expected survival curves. A knowledge of counting processes and martingales is not assumed as the early chapters provide an introduction to this area. The focus of the book is on actual data examples, the analysis and interpretation of the results, and computation. The methods are now readily available in SAS and S-Plus and this book gives a hands-on introduction, showing how to implement them in both packages, with worked examples for many data sets. The authors call on their extensive experience and give practical advice, including pitfalls to be avoided. Terry Therneau is Head of the Section of Biostatistics, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota. He is actively involved in medical consulting, with emphasis in the areas of chronic liver disease, physical medicine, hematology, and laboratory medicine, and is an author on numerous papers in medical and statistical journals. He wrote two of the original SAS procedures for survival analysis (coxregr and survtest), as well as the majority of the S-Plus survival functions. Patricia Grambsch is Associate Professor in the Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota. She has collaborated extensively with physicians and public health researchers in chronic liver disease, cancer prevention, hypertension clinical trials and psychiatric research. She is a fellow the American Statistical Association and the author of many papers in medical and statistical journals.
Article
This chapter gives results from some illustrative exploration of the performance of information-theoretic criteria for model selection and methods to quantify precision when there is model selection uncertainty. The methods given in Chapter 4 are illustrated and additional insights are provided based on simulation and real data. Section 5.2 utilizes a chain binomial survival model for some Monte Carlo evaluation of unconditional sampling variance estimation, confidence intervals, and model averaging. For this simulation the generating process is known and can be of relatively high dimension. The generating model and the models used for data analysis in this chain binomial simulation are easy to understand and have no nuisance parameters. We give some comparisons of AIC versus BIC selection and use achieved confidence interval coverage as an integrating metric to judge the success of various approaches to inference.
Chapter
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Article
(1) The influence of climatic factors on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was evaluated by comparing annual ring-widths from seven sites along an altitudinal gradient in Scotland with monthly climatic data. (2) Temperature was found to be more important than rainfall in influencing growth. Both late-winter (January-February) and summer (July-August) temperatures were significantly and positively correlated with ring-width. Winter browning or frost drought is a possible cause of the winter temperature correlation. (3) Krummholz trees, at the tree-line, were found to grow more, and their growth was less strongly correlated with climatic factors, than trees at lower elevations. It is suggested that this is due to their short stature and resultant higher tissue temperatures.
Conference Paper
Background/Question/Methods Understanding the interplay between environmental factors contributing to treeline formation and how these factors influence different life stages remains a major research challenge because detailed long-term observations of treeline patterns are rare. We asked the following research questions: 1. Can trees survive above the current treeline in the European Alps? 2. Are environmental factors that drive survival the same that drive height growth? 3. Does the relative importance of environmental variables measured at the time of tree establishment influencing survival and height growth change over the first thirty years after planting? We used an afforestation experiment including 92,000 trees to investigate the spatial and temporal dynamics of tree survival and growth at treeline in the Swiss Alps. Seedlings of three high-elevation conifer species (Larix decidua, Pinus mugo ssp. uncinata and Pinus cembra) were systematically planted along an altitudinal gradient at and above the current treeline (2075 to 2230 m a.s.l.) in 1975 and closely monitored during the following 30 years. We used general additive models to identify changes in survival and growth along gradients in elevation, snow duration, wind speed and microtopography and used decision-tree models to quantify interactions between the different variables. Results/Conclusions For all three species, snowmelt date and elevation were the most important environmental factors influencing survival and growth over the entire period studied. Individuals of all species survived at the highest point of the afforestation for more than 30 years, although survival declined strongly above 2160 m a.s.l., about 50 to 100 m above the current treeline position. Optimal conditions for height growth differed from those for survival in all three species: early snowmelt (ca. day 125-140) yielded highest survival rates but relatively later snowmelt (ca. day 145-150) yielded highest growth rates. Although snowmelt data and elevation were important throughout all life stages of the trees, variable importance of microtopography decreased over time and that of wind speed increased. Our findings provide experimental evidence that tree survival and height growth require different environmental conditions and that even small changes in the duration of snow cover, in addition to changes in temperature, can strongly impact tree survival and growth patterns at treeline. Furthermore, the relative importance of different environmental variables for tree seedlings changes during the juvenile phase as they grow taller.
Article
Aim Recent vegetation changes in mountain areas are often explained by climate warming. However, effects of land‐use changes, such as recolonization of abandoned pastures by forest, are difficult to separate from those of climate change. Even within forest belts, changes in stand structure due to forest management and stand maturation could confound the climate signal. Here, we evaluate the direction and rate of plant species elevation shifts in mountain forests, considering the role of stand dynamics. Location Forests in the plains and mountains of S outheast F rance. Methods We compared floristic data from the F rench N ational F orest I nventory collected in the 1980s and 1990s. They provided a large‐scale (30 985 plots) and representative sample of vegetation between 0 and 2500 m a.s.l. Species response curves along the elevation and exposure gradients were fitted with a logistic regression model. In order to assess the effect of changes in successional stages of the forest stands, we compared plant species shifts in the whole set of stands with those solely in closed stands. Results A total of 62 species shifted downward, whereas 113 shifted upward, resulting in a significant upward mean shift of 17.9 m. Upward shifting species were preferentially woody and heliophilous, suggesting a role for forest closure and maturation in the observed changes. Excluding all open forest stages from analyses, the upward trend became weaker (−3.0 m) and was not significant. Forests of the study area have undergone closure and maturation, more strongly at lower altitudes than at higher ones, producing an apparent shift of species. Conclusions In the mountain relief of S outheast F rance, changes in the successional stages of stands appear as the main cause of the apparent upslope movement of forest species. Since a similar trend of forest maturation exists in large areas throughout E urope, forest dynamics should be better taken into account among the causes of vegetation changes before inferring any climate change effect.
Article
Introduction One of the principal aims of cosmology is to identify the correct cosmological model, able to explain the available high-quality data. Determining the best model is a two-stage process. First, we must identify the set of parameters that we will allow to vary in seeking to fit the observations. As part of this process we need also to fix the allowable (prior) ranges that these parameters might take, most generally by providing a probability density function in the N-dimensional parameter space. This combination of parameter set and prior distribution is what we will call a model, and it should make calculable predictions for the quantities we are going to measure. Having chosen the model, the second stage is to determine, from the observations, the ranges of values of the parameters which are compatible with the data. This second step, parameter estimation, is described in the cosmological context by Lewis and Bridle in Chapter 3 of this volume. In this article, we shall concentrate on the choice of model. Typically, there is not a single model that we wish to fit to the data. Rather, the aim of obtaining the data is to choose between competing models, where different physical processes may be responsible for the observed outcome. This is the statistical problem of model comparison, or model selection. This is readily carried out by extending the Bayesian parameter estimation framework so that we assign probabilities to models, as well as to parameter values within those models.