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Journal of Asian and African Studies
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DOI: 10.1177/0021909614541087
published online 14 July 2014Journal of Asian and African Studies
A Sathiya Susuman, Siaka Lougue and Madhusudana Battala
from Census of India 2011
Female Literacy, Fertility Decline and Life Expectancy in Kerala, India: An Analysis
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DOI: 10.1177/0021909614541087
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J A A S
Female Literacy, Fertility
Decline and Life Expectancy in
Kerala, India: An Analysis from
Census of India 2011
A Sathiya Susuman
Department of Statistics and Population Studies, University of the Western Cape, South Africa
Siaka Lougue
Department of Statistics, University of Kuzulunatal, Durban, South Africa
Madhusudana Battala
Population Council, New Delhi, India
Abstract
The recent female literacy and fertility levels in Kerala state are examined using the 2011 census data.
Arriaga’s approach for estimation of age-specific fertility rates is undertaken to show the particularities of
Kerala state and the best practices which made this state an example for other states in India as well as
other places in the world, particularly developing countries. Women’s empowerment gets as much credit
as physical facilities and family planning programs; this empowerment level of women is also related to their
level of education.
Keywords
Female education, fertility decline, life expectancy, crude birth rate, female sterilization
Introduction
All the development indicators show that Kerala is an exceptional and exemplary state. The expec-
tations of planners and decision-makers in terms of fertility levels and female literacy in India have
been achieved in the state of Kerala. With a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.58 and crude birth rate
(CBR) of 14.7, Kerala state is at below-replacement level of fertility (1.5 births per women)
(Census of India, 2011a).
Corresponding author:
A Sathiya Susuman, Department of Statistics and Population Studies, University of the Western Cape, Cape Town 7530,
South Africa.
Email: sappunni@uwc.ac.za
541087JAS0010.1177/0021909614541087Journal of Asian and African StudiesSusuman et al.
research-article2014
Original Article
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2 Journal of Asian and African Studies
The development model of Kerala is unique in the sense that the economic situation of the
state is similar to most developing countries, but its development indicators are comparable with
those of developed countries (Census of India, 2011b; Navaneetham and Dharmalingam, 2011).
It is therefore important to study which socio-cultural or developmental factors have contributed
significantly towards Kerala’s demographic transition and development success. This study tries
to innovate by examining the situation which works, instead of focusing on issues and
deficiencies.
The defining indicator for the impressive demographic performance of Kerala is accepted to be
the high levels of literacy, especially among women (Bhat and Rajan, 1990; Krishnan, 1976;
Zachariah, 1984; Zachariah and Rajan, 2001). Kerala’s infant mortality rate was one of the lowest
among the Indian states at the time the transition in fertility began. Kerala is one of the most
densely populated states in India (Chakraborty 2005; Office of the Registrar General, 1999b).
There are two types of information which can be used for estimating fertility from the census.
The first type relates to the information canvassed by the census on the births during the 12 months
preceding the census. In theory, this should provide a rather reliable estimate of birth rates during
the previous year, provided that births are properly reported (Guilmoto and Rajan, 2001, 2002,
2013). A more serious limitation of this source is that the so-called ‘fertility tables’ are published
rather late by the census, with direct estimates based on recent births not available for several years
(Indian Express, 2013). The second type of census variable available for indirect estimation pur-
poses is the child population distribution. The provisional population total figures have already
been published at the state level in 2011.
Analyses undertaken in this paper mainly examine the high level of female literacy (92%) with
fertility decline in Kerala during the 2011 census, and the continuous, but extremely fast-decreasing,
process of fertility, and life expectancy at birth, age-specific fertility rate (ASFR) and achieved
replacement-level fertility in India. In this paper, data are obtained from diverse sources and ana-
lyzed through simple frequency table, ratios and proportion estimations. Application of Arriaga’s
approaches for estimation of ASFR are also applied in this paper to measure the relationship
between fertility pattern by age at birth of child and fertility consistent with children ever born in
the states of India.
Data
Data from the Census of India 2011, Sample Registration System 2010 and diverse sources are
used in this study to show the particularities of Kerala state and the best practices which made this
state an example to others in India. Demographic sources at the state level remain, unfortunately,
limited. The quality of the vital registration system in India is still poor. The best population sources
for estimating state-level fertility in India—the Sample Registration System (SRS) and the National
Family and Health Survey (NFHS)—do not go below state level. There have been several district-
level demographic surveys such as the Reproductive and Child Health (RCH) survey and District
Level Household Survey (DLHS), but these sources do not cover India entirely, or do not provide
adequate fertility and female literacy measurements. The Census of India remains therefore the
only source for both simultaneous and exhaustive figures on fertility differentials at the state level.
The researchers’ intention is to use the very latest data source, which is the Census of India 2011.
Southern Indian states such as Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh have achieved many
demographic developments, but Kerala state is exemplary. Kerala state’s female literacy rate
(94%), high female sterilization rate (78%) and below-replacement level of fertility (1.5 births per
women) are impressive. Therefore, the present study focuses on the exemplary female literacy,
fertility decline and life expectancy in Kerala.
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Susuman et al. 3
Methods
Graphical presentations have been adopted for female literacy and fertility rates. The data have
been analyzed through percentage distribution, ratios, proportion estimations and an estimation of
ASFR. The starting point was the sex ratio of 943 females per 1000 males in each state, as well as
infant and child mortality key indicators from SRS 2010. Also, the order in which the population
is growing in selected states with high female literacy, as well as the female literacy rate, is used to
compare the data between the years 1961–2011 in India. A comparison is also made between
female literacy rates and life expectancy at birth in India 2011. Furthermore, an application of
Arriaga’s approach for estimation of age-specific fertility rates for the study of ASFR based on the
2011 census data is used with MORTPAK4.
Arriaga’s approach for estimation of age-specific fertility rates
Fertility pattern of first enumeration: this indicates how the fertility pattern from the first enumera-
tion is tabulated, whether by age of mother at time of birth of the child or by age of mother at the
date of enumeration.
Children ever born (first enumeration period 2001, Kerala data used Census of India 2001): this
is the average number of children ever born per woman at the time of the first enumeration. Data
are given for age groups 15–19, 20–24, 25–29, 30–34, 35–39, 40–44, 45–49.
Age-specific fertility pattern (first enumeration): this is the age-specific fertility pattern at the
time of the first enumeration. Data may be given as recorded ASFRs or as the proportionate age
distribution of fertility. Data are given for age groups 15–19, 20–24, 25–29, 30–34, 35–39, 40–44,
45–49.
Month of second enumeration: this indicates the month of the second enumeration, left blank if
data from only one enumeration are being entered.
Year of second enumeration (2011 Kerala state, Census of India 2011): the year of the second
enumeration. Left blank if data from only one enumeration are being entered. We adopted two sets
of census data, 2001 and 2011, matched with provisional total population (Census of India 2011).
We kept the 2011 census figure only.
Fertility pattern of second enumeration: this indicates how the fertility pattern from the second
enumeration is tabulated, whether by age of mother at time of birth of the child or by age of mother
at the date of enumeration.
Children ever born (second enumeration): this is the average number of children ever born per
woman at the time of the second enumeration. Data are given for age groups 15–19, 20–24, 25–29,
30–34, 35–39, 40–44, 45–49.
We used data from both enumerations if data not available; left blank if data from only one
enumeration are being entered.
Age-specific fertility pattern (second enumeration): this is the age-specific fertility pattern at the
time of the second enumeration. Data may be given as recorded ASFRS or as the proportionate age
distribution of fertility. Data are given for age groups 15–19, 20–24, 25–29, 30–34, 35–39, 40–44,
45–49.
Data can be given for one or two periods of time. If the year of the second census is blank or
zero, the procedure assumes that the second enumeration is not available. Therefore, any data
given for the second enumeration are not used. If data is available, it is best to enter it in order to
obtain a reliable output. It does not matter whether the fertility pattern is entered as ASFRs or as a
proportional distribution. The figures are adjusted by the multipliers to give identical results. In this
study, data on children ever born and recorded fertility rates in five-year age groups are available
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4 Journal of Asian and African Studies
from the Census of India 2001 and 2011. Arriaga’s approach is used to adjust the recorded ASFRs
to provide ‘corrected’ fertility estimates. The recorded ASFRs were tabulated by age of mother at
the time of the birth of the child. The results suggest that the recorded fertility underestimated
actual fertility by about 3%, and the true TFR is 1.66 births per woman.
Settings
The state of Kerala is found between the Arabian Sea to the west and the Western Ghats to the east.
It covers only 1.18% of India’s landmass. Kerala’s coast runs 580 km in length, while the state
itself varies from 35–120 km in width. Situated at the south-western tip of India, it has Tamil Nadu
and Karnataka as its neighboring states. Over the past century, Kerala’s population increased by
over five times from 6 million in 1901 to 33.4 million in 2011. Currently, it is the 12th most popu-
lous state, with slightly less than 3% population share. Its population compares with those of
Canada and Iraq, but is somewhat larger than the populations of Afghanistan, Nepal, and Malaysia.
Results
In the 2011 census, the population density of Kerala was 860 persons per km2, up from 819 in
2001, and only trailing Bihar (1106 up from 881) and West Bengal (1028 up from 903). The
national average is 382, up from 324 10 years ago. In the state, The highest density of 1508 persons
per km2 is reported from Thiruvananthapuram district, while Idukki with 255 has the lowest den-
sity. This high density has played a major role in improving access to essential social services such
as education and health care, thus leading to improved development indicators.
One of the most distinguishing features of Kerala is the female/male sex ratio: according to the
2011 census, Kerala has 1058 females per 1000 males against the national average of 933. Women
constitute 51.9 % of the total population of the state and outnumber men by 1.3 million. Here also
women outlive men. In the past 100 years, this has steadily improved. Even the most economically
advanced states such as Delhi, Punjab, Gujarat and Maharashtra do not match Kerala in female-
friendliness and empowerment of women (Census of India, 2011b). In the past decade, all districts
of Kerala have shown improvement in the sex ratio. As per the 2011 data, the top three districts are
Kannur (1133), Pathanamthitta (1129) and Kollam (1113), and even the bottom districts have better
figures—Idukki (1006), Ernakulam (1028), and Wayanad (1035)—than the national average.
A steadily aging population (13% people over 60 years compared with 8.2 nationally) and low
birth rate (14.8 per 1000 compared with national average of 22.1) make Kerala one of the few
regions of the developing world to have undergone the ‘demographic transition’. It is highest
among the major states of India. The highest per cent of elderly population is found in the Alappuzha
district. Kerala attained replacement-level fertility, or TFR of 2.1, during the early 1990s, and this
figure was 1.6 in 2011. Other states which achieved this feat in the following years are Andhra
Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Punjab.
Kerala has been setting an example of the potential of human development over the last several
decades. This state has emerged far ahead in human development indicators, leaving behind even
economically advanced states such as Gujarat and Maharashtra. It also has the lowest rate of popu-
lation growth, achieved without the coercive sterilization policies of the family planning ministry
(Office of the Registrar General, 1999b). Kerala has the lowest rural crude death rate (around 7.7
per thousand), lowest infant mortality (around 14 per 1000 live births), highest life expectancy at
birth (75 years), and highest literacy rate (94%). Its fertility rate is below sub-replacement level (at
around 1.7), and the infant mortality rate (only around 10 deaths per 1000 live births) is among the
best in the country.
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Susuman et al. 5
Growth rate of population in selected states
There has been a 5% fall in population growth rate in the state in each successive census since
1971. The decadal population growth rate was 25% growth rate in 1971, which reduced to 20% in
1981, 9.4% in 2001 and stands at 4.9% in 2011. If this trend continues, the growth rate in 2021 will
be either zero or negative. The birth rate among all the communities has been declining. At present
it is around 1.2 among Christians, as against 1.4 among Hindus and 2.1 among Muslims. The dif-
ference in the birth rate among different communities will be reflected in the overall state popula-
tion composition. It is expected that the Christian population should be about 16% in 2011, down
from 19.5% in 2001, and the Muslim community should be 25% as against 21% in 2001. In 2011,
the Hindu community should be around 54% against 56% in 2001. In looking at the top-level
female-literate states in India in 2011, according to the 2011 Population Census, about 90% of
female literacy is within the Kerala state of India.
Literacy and life expectancy
Kerala has a top-level female literacy rate at 94% (male literacy (96%) and female literacy (92%))
compared with the national average of 74% (male 82%, female 65.5%). In addition, Kerala has the
highest life expectancy (75.8 years; national average 65.5 years) in India. Children in the age group
0–6 years comprise just about 10%, and those up to 14 years comprise less than 25%, of the total
population, which is lowest among the major states of India. The falling number of children is
endangering primary schools; more and more schools are becoming uneconomical every year in
Kerala. The school dropout rate in the state is less than 0.5%, the lowest in the country.
The literacy rates are very varied from one state to another in India (Kerala=93.9%, Bihar=63.8%).
Figure 1 shows that these literacy rates are linked to life expectancy through the equation y=0.025x2–
0.0093x+66.54 (R2=64%). This equation was obtained from the excel trend estimation of polyno-
mial regression. In fact, Figure 1 shows that a polynomial regression should fit well with the
present data. Figure 1 shows that life expectancy increases with literacy rate. In general, states with
a higher literacy rate have a higher life expectancy. In fact, the state of Bihar, with a literacy rate of
63.8%, has the lowest literacy rate in the country and also the lowest life expectancy. The state of
Kerala has the highest literacy rate (93.9%) and also the highest life expectancy level in the coun-
try. Figure 1 illustrates the link between the literacy rate and life expectancy in the country.
The TFR in India in general and Kerala in particular is estimated through indirect demographic
methods. The use of indirect estimate methods is the expression of the low quality of data, as in
several developing countries. Table 1 presents the result of Arriaga’s approach to determine the
fertility level in Kerala state. The use of MORTPACK4 software leads to a very similar estimate to
the census report 2011. In fact, Arriaga’s approach provides the estimate of TFR equal to 1.66. In
addition, the mean age at childbearing has been estimated to be 29.5 years. Finally, Table 1 high-
lights the important fact that of the highest rate of fertility is between 25–35 years.
Discussion
Sex ratio
The overall sex ratio at the national level has increased by 7 points since Census 2001 to reach 940
at Census 2011, but lacks the most exceptional features (a few to mention here are a high female
sterilization rate above 40% and 0% drop out from school) of the Kerala sex ratio. Coercive state
policies, such as the One Child Policy of China, combined with gender prejudice against women,
has led to a highly disturbed sex ratio creating several serious social issues. China already has a
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6 Journal of Asian and African Studies
surplus of over 30 million men under the age of 20 and adds about one million ‘extra male children’
each year. This scenario is loaded with potential for serious consequences in the future, and is
showing up in increasing sex-related crimes and trafficking of women from neighboring North
Korea and Myanmar (Sen 1990; Sen and Batliwala, 1997). Kerala has avoided all such side-effects
of societal distortions.
Crude birth rate and total fertility rate
Kerala state’s CBR and TFR are figures comparable with other countries. Some very low TFR
countries include Singapore (0.79), Taiwan (1.11), South Korea (1.24), Japan (1.39) and the EU as
a whole (1.58). The USA (2.07) is hovering just below the replacement value of 2.1. The world’s
average TFR is around 2.45 (down from 2.8 in 2002 and 5.0 in 1965). Kerala state’s TFR was 1.65
in 2011. Interestingly, this rate is similar to our analysis. However, several countries, especially
those in the developing world, have higher fertility rates than Kerala. To put things into perspec-
tive, here are some nations with a very high TFR: Niger (7.03), Mali (6.25), Somalia (6.17), Uganda
(6.06), Zambia (5.81), and Afghanistan (5.54). China reached the replacement fertility level around
the year 2000; it is expecting to see population stabilization by 2030. Population stabilization takes
place about 30–35 years after the replacement fertility has been reached; until then, the population
continues to grow due to momentum. It is hoped that by 2020 India’s TFR would have fallen to
replacement level. In India, the demographic transition has been relatively slow but steady. As a
result of Kerala state, India was able to avoid adverse effects of overly rapid changes in the number
and age structure of the population, as is seen in China which reduced the population by imposing
the one-child policy.
Figure 1. Life expectancy increases with the literacy rate in India 2011.
Source: Based on the census of India 2011 data estimated by authors.
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Susuman et al. 7
Table 1. Application of Arriaga’s approach for estimation of age-specific fertility rates from data on children ever born and the pattern of fertility at one or
two points in time in Kerala 2011, Census of India 2011.
Women’s age
group (years)
CEB ASFP Fertility consistent
with CEB (ASFR)
Fertility pattern
by age at birth
Cumulation of Age-specific fertility rates based on
adjustment factor for the age group
ASFR Fertility Pattern
by age at birth
Adjustment
factors
20–25 25–30 30–35
15–20 0.01 0.001 0.004 0.001 0.004 0.001 3.737 0.004 0.000 0.002
20–25 0.06 0.006 0.024 0.006 0.028 0.007 4.233 0.024 0.002 0.013
25–30 0.21 0.163 0.018 0.163 0.046 0.170 0.0270 0.691 0.044 0.368
30–35 0.20 0.098 –0.015 0.098 0.031 0.267 0.117 0.413 0.026 0.220
35–40 0.13 0.059 –0.009 0.059 0.023 0.0326 0.070 0.249 0.016 0.133
40–45 0.08 0.006 0.005 0.006 0.028 0.333 0.084 0.027 0.002 0.014
45–50 0.01 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.030 0.333 0.089 0.000 0.000 0.000
Mean age of childbearing: 29.53
Total fertility rate: 1.66
Source: Based on the Census of India 2011 data, estimated by authors used with MORTPAK4.
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8 Journal of Asian and African Studies
Infant mortality rate and fertility indicators
Kerala has been setting an example of the potential for human development over the last several
decades. As noted earlier, this state has emerged far ahead in human development indicators, leav-
ing behind even economically advanced states such as Gujarat and Maharashtra. It also has the
lowest rate of population growth, achieved without coercive sterilization policies of family plan-
ning (Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2000; International Institute for Population Sciences
and Macro International, National Family Health Survey 2005-2006, (IIPS, 2007)). Kerala has the
lowest crude death rate (around 7 per thousand), lowest infant mortality (around 14 per 1000 live
births), highest life expectancy at birth (75 years) and highest literacy rate (94%). Kerala attained
replacement level fertility, or TFR of 2.1, during the early 1990s. Other states which achieved this
feat in the following years are Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Punjab.
Literacy in Kerala
It is notable that Kerala achieved such a high literacy rate despite a sluggish growth in economy,
because normally economic growth has been known to curtail population growth. Sociologists
attribute these achievements to Kerala’s better healthcare, high literacy rate, and better standard of
living compared with other Indian states. Kerala’s human development indices—elimination of
poverty, primary level education, and healthcare—are among the best in India.
Top literacy states
Kerala has demonstrated that demographic transition, and hence population stabilization, can be
achieved through human development in general, and female literacy in particular. It proved many
Western thinkers wrong who believed that economic development alone can bring about demo-
graphic transition, as they had observed in their countries. It also highlighted that imposing a
smaller family size, as China has done, is not at all required to reduce population growth. Kerala
also highlights the role of gender equality and empowerment of women (IIPS, 2007; Radha et al.,
1996).
Literacy and life expectancy
The result of the analyses shows that when life expectancy is considered as an indicator of good
healthcare and development, there is a high correlation with literacy level. One can therefore state
that the high literacy rate in Kerala, especially among the female population, is the core driving
factor of Kerala’s success. In fact, Kerala’s healthcare system has garnered international acclaim,
with UNICEF and the World Health Organization designating Kerala the world’s first “baby-
friendly state”. For example, more than 95% births in Kerala are hospital delivered. The state also
cultivates several traditional forms of medical practices; apart from Ayurveda, Siddha, and Unani,
many endangered and endemic modes of traditional medicine, including Kalari, Marmachikitsa
and Vishavaidyam are practiced in Kerala (Radha et al., 1996). Furthermore, this study points to
high literacy as the most dominant factor leading to lower fertility. The study also points to a cor-
relation between education and fertility, as well as comparing the fertility parameters of Kerala and
Madhya Pradesh (Radha et al., 1996). The authors wondered why fertility is fairly high even among
women graduates in Madhya Pradesh and fairly low even among illiterates of Kerala. The authors
concluded that the spread of formal education among women cannot by itself bring about a drastic
change in their reproductive behavior. The present study shows that the state of Uttar Pradesh (200
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Susuman et al. 9
million) is the most populous state in the country, with a population greater than the population of
Brazil. In the future, the population of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra (312 million) will be greater
than that of the USA.
Age-specific fertility rate estimation
The mean age of childbearing women is 29 years, reflecting an improvement in the approach to
maternal health care. The study estimation of ASFR from data on children ever born and the pattern
of fertility proved that Kerala’s TFR is again declining. A supporting study argued that in the case
of Kerala, the high population density and the rather homogeneous spread of the population (with-
out the drastic village–town divide) has helped develop the infrastructure of schools and healthcare
facilities in such a way that they are easily accessible to the whole population (Zachariah, 1984).
In Kerala 95% of the population has been living in such settlement pattern. This pattern avoided
the lopsided development seen in other states, where facilities are concentrated in or around cities
and rural areas are left behind, both in facilities and with regards to easy access (Zachariah and
Rajan, 2001). In addition, the rather low or absent gender bias in Kerala should also be given credit.
When women are free of male dominance they are in a better position to control their fertility. This
empowerment must receive as much credit as other physical facilities and family planning pro-
grams. However, this empowerment level of women is also related to their level of education.
A negative point is that as the growth rate of the population continues to fall in Kerala over the
years, more schools have become ‘uneconomic’, a term used to describe schools which have insuf-
ficient numbers of children in them (Indian Express, 2013). Considered as a state where family
planning initiatives achieved the greatest success over the decades, Kerala had one of the country’s
lowest population growth rates of 4.9% in the last decade. Children in the age group of 0–6
accounted for a mere 10% of the state’s total population.
Conclusion
Kerala state has drawn the attention of all the other states in India regarding its impressive perfor-
mance in female literacy and drop in fertility rates. This achievement is an example for India and
many other countries around the world, especially low-income countries. Kerala state proposes a
unique model of success regarding population indicators, which needs a deep examination and a
close understanding to be replicated elsewhere. Kerala state has defeated the theory of demo-
graphic transition with level of fertility in a poor economic setting. From the analyses, it appears
that the Kerala model is a human development model which focuses on people and improving their
quality of life. This is totally opposite to what the West thinks and has prescribed: use people to
develop the economy and industry. This is flawed, as Nobel laureate Amartya Sen has often empha-
sized; the aim of development is to improve people’s quality of life, which depends upon many
things other than merely economic growth. These include freedom to participate in social and
political processes and activities, access to social support systems and health services, freedom
from insecurities, and so on. ‘Implications of Emerging Demographic Scenario’, based on an esti-
mation of Census of India 2011 data, suggests that India has been in the middle of the demographic
transition over the past several decades, where the death rate has fallen sharply because of improved
public health and sanitation almost everywhere in Indian states, but the birth rate has remained
high due to slow progress towards socio-economic development and limited access to quality
reproductive health and contraceptive services, especially in the four large north Indian States of
Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. This is the major cause of a spurt in popula-
tion as well as the stalled demographic transition, it warns. The Indian government should learn
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10 Journal of Asian and African Studies
from Kerala and shift the focus of family planning efforts to socio-cultural issues such as rising age
at marriage, women’s education, gender equality and empowerment of women.
Author note
*Revised version of the paper presented in the Future of Populations in Paris Conference, France. This con-
ference was organized in the frame of South African Seasons in France 2013 by INED (France) and the
University of the Western Cape (Department of Statistics & Population Studies).
Funding
This research received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit
sectors.
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Author biographies
A Sathiya Susuman has an MA, MPhil in Population Studies and a PhD in Demography. He has specialized in
the social science research area of demographic analysis and reproductive health for 14 years. His specific
research area is fertility, mortality, empowerment of women, gender, reproductive health, health policy and
public health. He has published several articles in refereed journals. At present he is working at the Faculty of
Natural Sciences in the Department of Statistics and Population Studies, University of the Western Cape,
South Africa.
Siaka Logue has a PhD in Demography, and is working as Lecturer in Statistics at the Department of Statistics,
University of the Kwazulu Natal, South Africa.
Madhusudana Battala, PhD in Population Studies, is working as a Senior Research Officer in Population coun-
cil at New Delhi, India.
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