A. V. Eliseev

Lomonosov Moscow State University | MSU · Depatment of the Atmopsheric Physics, Faculty of Physics

An Erratum to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X23070085

The simulations with SMILES (the Sediment Model Invented for Long-tErm Simulations) for 100 kyr in the future driven by the output of an Earth System Model with internally calculated ice sheets are performed. This Earth System Model was forced by idealised scenarios of CO\(_2\) emissions and by changes of the parameters of the Earth’s orbit. The si...

The Arctic has warmed more than twice the rate of the entire globe. To quantify possible climate change effects, we calculate wind energy potentials from a multi-model ensemble of Arctic-CORDEX. For this, we analyze future changes of wind power density (WPD) using an eleven-member multi-model ensemble. Impacts are estimated for two periods (2020-20...

Changes in wind energy resources in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are quantitatively assessed based on ERA5 reanalysis data for 1979-2021. The wind energy potential (WEP) is estimated during the analysis. According to the ERA5 reanalysis data, the WEP noticeably increases over the Greenland, Nor-wegian, Barents, Kara, and Chukchi Seas a...

The sensitivity of seafloor temperature TB to the warming of surface air temperature Ta is examined for 1850–2300, based on simulations with five models from the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 6 ensemble and driven by a scenario with high anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. In this historical period (until 2015), sensitivity...

Ensemble simulations (taking into account to the uncertainty of paleoclimate reconstructions) with a model of ice sheet dynamics for the last glacial cycle (128 kyr) are carried out. In general, the model realistically reproduces the spatial structure of the ice sheets and the heights of their domes in the Northern Hemisphere, as well as the associ...

Ensemble simulations (taking into account uncertainty of paleoclimate reconstructions) with a models for ice sheets dynamics for the last glacial cycle (last 128 kyr) are carried out. The model realistically reproduces spatial structure of major ice sheets and heights of their domes in the Northern hemisphere as well as the associated changes in gl...

An analysis of the acidity of precipitation is carried out by using the ChAP-1.0 (Chemistry and Aerosol Processes) atmospheric sulfur cycle scheme developed for Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs)These calculations are forced by monthly mean anthropogenic emissions of sulfur dioxide to the atmosphere in 1850–2000 adapted from the...

Large reserves of carbon are preserved under conditions of subsea permafrost in the bottom sediments of the Arctic shelf. The existence of permafrost has created the necessary conditions for the thermodynamic stability of methane hydrates. Using a mathematical model that describes the thermal state of the sediment, we analyzed the dynamics of the p...

Model estimates of the contribution of anthropogenic and natural fluxes of greenhouse gases from the territories of different countries to global climate change in the 21st century under different scenarios of anthropogenic forcing were obtained. Quantitative estimates were made for the effect of changes in regional climatic conditions on the inten...

To estimate the climatic effects of anthropogenic CO 2 and CH 4 emission scenarios we performed numerical experiments using IAP RAS CM global climate model. Emissions pathways of 5 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) regions were used as evaluated scenarios. It is shown that the anthropogenic contribution of CO 2 to global surface temperatu...

Quantitative estimates of changes in wind energy resources in the Arctic were obtained using the RCA4 regional climate model under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios for 2006-2099. The wind power density proportional to cubic wind speed was analyzed. The procedure for the model near-surface wind speed bias correction using ERA5 data as...

Changes in the frequency and intensity of atmospheric severe convective events, including heavy rainfall, thunderstorm, hailstorm, squall, and tornado, in the Russian regions during the warm season are analyzed using different independent sources of information. Based on observations at Russian weather stations in 1966–2020, the frequency of thunde...

Changes in the frequency and intensity of atmospheric severe convective events, including heavy rainfall, thunderstorm, hailstorm, squall, and tornado, in the Russian regions during the warm season are analyzed using different independent sources of information. Based on observations at Russian weather stations in 1966-2020, the frequency of thunde...

The analysis is carried out for changes in runoff of the Amur and Selenga rivers in the 21st century according to the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6) climate model ensemble simulations using the Bayesian approach versus stream gage data on annual runoff and GPCP-2.3 dataset on annual precipitation over catchments on different...

We performed simulations with SMILES (the Sediment Model Invented for Long-tErm Simulations) for 100 kyr in future forced by the output of an Earth System model with internally calculated ice sheets. This Earth System model was driven by idealised scenarios of CO2 emissions (applied at time instant t = 0 loosely corresponding to common era year 195...

A global analysis of geographical features of vertical profiles of specific humidity and concentrations of sulfur dioxide and sulfate aerosols from the CAMS reanalysis data, as well as height of planetary boundary layer (PBL) from the ERA5 reanalysis data for 2003–2020 is carried out. The scale height HY is used as a characteristic of the mentioned...

A stationary, computationally efficient scheme ChAP 1.0 (Chemical and Aerosol Processes, version 1.0) for the sulfur cycle in the troposphere is developed. This scheme is designed for Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs). The scheme accounts for sulfur dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, its deposition to the surface, oxidation...

The contribution of anthropogenic and natural greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from the territory of Russia, China, USA and Canada to global climate change under different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions in the 21st century has been assessed. It is shown that the consideration of the changes in climate conditions can affect the impact indica...

A stationary, computationally efficient scheme ChAP-1.0 (Chemical and Aerosol Processes, version 1.0) for the sulphur cycle in the troposphere is developed. This scheme is designed for Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs). The scheme accounts for sulphur dioxide emissions into the atmosphere, its deposition to the surface, oxidati...

The paper is devoted to a new approach to the formation of the methodological basis of system analysis in application to problems of the dynamics of mechanical oscillatory systems taking into account the forces of viscous friction. A mechanical oscillatory system with two mass-inertia elements connected to the support surfaces and to each other by...

The simulations for the last millennium with an Earth system model developed at the A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) are performed. These simulations are forced by changes of the parameters of the Earth orbit, total solar irradiance, volcanic (stratospheric) aerosols optical depth (only since...

The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO2 emissions and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better understanding of the potent...

Temperature and sea level changes in the Pleistocene are uncertain. This leads to uncertainty in the associated response of the thermal state of the subsea sediments. We quantified the upper bound of the latter uncertainty in idealised simulations with a model for thermophysical processes in the sediments. At the coast and at the shallow and interm...

Abstract. The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global mean temperature expected to occur following the cessation of net CO₂ emissions, and as such is a critical parameter for calculating the remaining carbon budget. The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) was established to gain a better under...

A review of the contemporary knowledge on natural fires (NF) and on contemporary approaches for their modelling is presented. The review is targeted to the implementation of NF models into the global Earth system models. In the last years, satellite retrievals are able to detect even small (with the size < 500 m) fires. Nonetheless, marked uncertai...

Obtained the estimates of the contribution of anthropogenic and natural GHG emissions into the atmosphere from the territory of Russia to global climate change under various scenarios of anthropogenic impact in the 21st century. Accounting for changes in climatic conditions can strongly influence the indicators of the impact of various greenhouse g...

Estimates of the contribution of anthropogenic and natural greenhouse gases to the atmosphere from the territory of Russia to global climate change under different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions in the 21st century are obtained. It is shown that the consideration of the changes in climate conditions can strongly affect the indicators of impac...

The phase shift between changes in the global surface temperature Tg and atmospheric CO2 content has been shown earlier not to characterize causal relationships in the Earth system in the general case. Specifically, the sign of this phase shift under nongreenhouse radiative forcing changes depends on the time scale of this forcing. This paper analy...

A modification of the commonly used Price-Rind scheme for lightning flashes frequency (LFF), which can be used for calculations with large spatial and time steps, is developed. With such steps, the exponent in the relationship of LFF on convective cloud heights appears to be smaller by a factor of two over land and by one fourth over ocean in compa...

The phase shift between changes in the global surface temperature Tg and atmospheric CO2 content \({{q}_{{{\text{C}}{{{\text{O}}}_{2}}}}}\) has been shown earlier not to characterize causal relationships in the Earth system in the general case. Specifically, the sign of this phase shift under nongreenhouse radiative forcing changes depends on the t...

In this paper, the earlier results, which were obtained with the climate model developed at the A.M. Obu khov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) and related to the impact of the atmospheric sulphur dioxide on terrestrial carbon cycle, are elucidated. Because of the unavailability of the global data for near s...

A modification of the commonly used Price–Rind scheme for lightning flash frequency (LFF), which can be used in calculations with large spatial and time steps, has been developed. If such steps are applied, the exponent in the relationship of LFF as function of convective cloud heights is smaller by a factor of two over land and smaller by one-four...

Previously, it was shown that the time lag between changes in global temperature T and atmospheric CO2 content q CO2 generally does not characterize cause-and-effect relationships in the Earth system. In particular, in the case of non-greenhouse radiative forcing the sign of this lag depends on the time scale of the forcing. In this paper, the time...

The estimates of the subsea permafrost sensitivity to the uncertainty of paleoclimatic reconstructions of air temperature and ocean level have been obtained. This was done by using the model for thermophysical processes in the subsea sediments and the scenario for climate changes at the Arctic shelf for the last 400 kyr. This model was forced by fo...

Changes in the air temperature, ozone mass mixing ratio, and characteristics of wave activity on 26 levels in the tropo-stratosphere during 1979-2016 are discussed. Reanalysis data ERA-Interim and indices of atmospheric circulation are used as initial data. Vertical profiles of the coefficient of slope in a linear temperature trend are built. The v...

We study the potential impact of a possible warming in the Arctic Ocean in the 21st century on the methane hydrates stability zone. In order to assess the space-time variability of the ocean bottom temperature, we employ a regional version of a coupled ice-ocean model that has been developed at the Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathema...

As global warming continues in the 21st century, one can expect a significant increase in the duration of the navigation period along the Northern Sea Route. In this study we found that, according to the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the anthropogenic impact, the expected duration of the navigation period along the...

This paper presents results of the analysis of the influence of talik zones associated with thermokarst lakes and processes in rift zones on the dynamics of subaqueous permafrost and zones of stability of methane hydrates for conditions of the Laptev Sea shelf. The model of thermophysical processes in the bottom sedi- ments together with the scenar...

An analysis of spectra of wave disturbances with zonal wave numbers 1 ≤ k ≤ 10 is carried out using winter (November to March) ERA-Interim reanalysis geopotential data in the troposphere and stratosphere for 1979–2016. Contributions of eastward-traveling (E), westward-traveling (W), and stationary (S) waves are estimated. The intensification of wav...

We present and validate a set of equations for representing the atmosphere's large-scale general circulation in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). These dynamical equations have been implemented in Aeolus 1.0, which is a statistical–dynamical atmosphere model (SDAM) and includes radiative transfer and cloud modules (Coumou et...

Climate warming may lead to degradation of the subsea permafrost developed during Pleistocene glaciations and release methane from the hydrates, which are stored in this permafrost. It is important to quantify time scales at which this release is plausible. While, in principle, such time scale might be inferred from paleoarchives, this is hampered...

The analysis of asymmetry of probability distribution functions (PDF) is carried out for key atmospheric variables using the JRA-55 reanalysis data in the troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere for 1976–2014. The nonzero asymmetry of the PDF indicates the deviation of the PDF from the normal distribution. The analysis was carried out for two time-s...

Cloud overlap parameter α was estimated on remote sensing data. This parameter is a measure of the relative weight of maximum (α = 1) and random (α = 0) overlap, and may be used to diagnose relative contribution of convective and stratiform cloudiness to total cloud fraction. Cloud overlap parameter α was calculated on passive satellite data MODIS...

A module for simulating of natural fires (NFs) in the climate model of the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM), is extended with respect to the influence of lightning activity and population density on the ignition frequency and fire suppression. The IAP RAS CM is used to perform numerical experim...

We present and validate a set of equations for representing the atmosphere's large-scale general circulation in an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). These dynamical equations have been implemented in Aeolus, which is a Statistical Dynamical Atmosphere Model (SDAM) and includes radiative transfer and cloud modules (Coumou, 2011;...

In the course of forecasting future climate changes in the Arctic Region based on calculations and an ensemble of the state-of-the-art global climate models, the results depend on the method of construction the statistics from the models.

Single-point simulations with a model for thermal state of subsea sediments driven by the forcing constructed from the ice core data show that the impact of initial conditions is lost after ~ 100 kyr. The time scales of temperature propagation in sediments and respective permafrost response are ~ 10–20 kyr which is longer than the present interglac...

By using the model for subsea sediments (SSs) (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, IAP RAS) and the general circulation model in the Arctic Ocean–North Atlantic (GCM AO-NA) (Institute of Computational Mathematics and Mathematical Geophysics, Siberian Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences, ICMMG SB RAS), the response of the...

Using the climate model developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM), numerical experiments have been conducted in line with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), but scaling the anthropogenic emissions of sulfur compounds into the troposphere by +/- 25%. Two types of...

Estimates of the changes of atmospheric methane emissions from wetland ecosystems for different regions and the Earth as a whole are performed. The new version of the model of methane emissions from soil in a global climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of atmospheric physics is used. Numerical experiments...

Wetlands are the world’s largest natural source of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. The strong sensitivity of methane emissions to environmental factors such as soil temperature and moisture has led to concerns about potential positive feedbacks to climate change. This risk is particularly relevant at high latitudes, which have experienced prono...

Based on the UK MetOffice gridded analysis in the altitudes from the tropopause to the mesopause of the Northern Hemisphere and the meteor radar observations in the mesosphere/lower thermosphere over Kazan ( ) and Collm ( ), the annual and semiannual harmonics of the horizontal wind components in the stratosphere, mesosphere, and lower thermosphere...

Wetlands are the world’s largest natural source of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas. The strong sensitivity of methane emissions to environmental factors such as soil temperature and moisture has led to concerns about potential positive feedbacks to climate change. This risk is particularly relevant at high latitudes, which have experienced prono...

Tropospheric sulphate aerosols (TSA) may oxidise the photosynthesising tissues if they are taken up by plants. A parametrisation of this impact of tropospheric sulphate aerosols (TSA) on the terrestrial gross primary production is suggested. This parametrisation is implemented into the global Earth system model developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institu...

The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have analyzed how storm tracks will change under climate...

The carbon cycle module of the global climate model developed at the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) has been extended by implementing the subgrid-scale heterogeneity (SH) of plant functional types (PFTs). It is found that subgrid-scale PFT heterogeneity enhances the photosynthesis intensity and in...

The amplitude phase characteristics (APC) or surface air temperature (SAT) annual cycle (AC) in the Northern Hemisphere are analyzed. From meteorological observations for the 20th century and meteorological reanalyses for its second half, it is found that over land negative correlation of SAT AC amplitude with annual mean SAT dominates. Nevertheles...

This paper presents ensemble simulations with the global climate model developed at the A. M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM). These simulations were forced by historical reconstruction of external forcings for 850-2005 AD and by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios till year 2...

The annual mean field of the surface air temperature is basically zonal. By averaged globally, the surface air temperature for 1981–2010 is estimated to be 14.2 °C (14.8 °C and 13.7 °C in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively). A dominant mode of temperature variations is an annual cycle. It is more prominent over the high-latitude la...

Carried out are numerical experiments with the IAP RAS global climate model (IAP RAS CM) under new RCP scenarios of anthropogenic impact for the 18th–21st centuries taking account of the response of the methane emission from the soil to the atmosphere and effects of chemical processes in the atmosphere on the climate changes. The model generally si...

In this study we present a scheme for calculating the characteristics of multi-layer cloudiness and precipitation for Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs). This scheme considers three-layer stratiform cloudiness and single-column convective clouds. It distinguishes between ice and droplet clouds as well. Precipitation is calculate...

Estimates of possible climate changes and cryolithozone dynamics in the 21st century over the Northern Hemisphere land are obtained using the IAP RAS global climate model under the RCP scenarios. Annual mean warming over the northern extratropical land during the 21st century amounts to 1.2–5.3°C depending on the scenario. The area of the snow cove...

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten mod...

In this study we present a scheme for calculating the characteristics of multi-layer cloudiness and precipitation for climate models of intermediate complexity (EMICs). This scheme considers three-layer stratiform cloudiness and single column convective clouds. It distinguishes between ice and droplet clouds as well. Precipitation is calculated by...