Question
Asked 20th Feb, 2020

Generate Starting Values for Group-based trajectory modelling in Stata?

I am running GBTM in Stata software for my count data using the zip model. Upon running the traj syntax i.e., “traj, var(y*) indep(t*) model(zip) order(x x x), a particular error pops up i.e., ‘Likelihood could not be computed at start values’. i was advised that there is an issue with the start values in your data and need to generate alternative start values to over-ride the default start values.
After reading the above messages and reviewing the notes on https://www.andrew.cmu.edu/user/bjones/strtxmpl1.htm; I tried to do two things:
1. I ran the syntax “traj, var(y*) indep(t*) model(zip) order(x x x), detail
2. Instead of considering the zip model for count data, I used the cnorm model by putting min(0) and max(999) values and ran the syntax "traj, var(y*) indep(t*) model(cnorm) min(0) max(999) order(x x x), detail.
Following these syntax's, the estimate parameters were surely generated but i got an error message i.e., "Warning: variance matrix is nonsymmetric or highly singular".
Can anyone please provide me some useful advice on how to generate new starting values so that i can produce the correct trajectories.

All Answers (2)

Jesper Eriksson
Karolinska Institutet
If the model is too complex, for example too many measurements of time or too many variables (or both) it is hard for the maximum likelihood method to find where to start. Thus you need to provide start values.
One way is to run a simpler model, for example with less time measurements and save the final estimates in a matrix. Then modify the matrix, adding "0" for subsequently extra time measurements.
1 Recommendation
Hello Jesper,
Thank you for this explaination. How would you save the final estimates in a matrix ? Do you have an example ?
Thank you so much!
Frederic

Similar questions and discussions

Need an easy explanation for the different models in group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM)?
Question
5 answers
  • Mikhail SaltychevMikhail Saltychev
I am trying to study group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM). Please, notice that I am not a statistician. I have installed in Stata the module “traj” that is the same module as one for SAS. There are 13 different models one can use with traj.   
  1. Censored Normal Model              
  2. Zero-Inflated Poisson Model                 
  3. Logistic Model                 
  4. Time-Stable Covariates for Group Membership               
  5. Group Membership Probabilities from a Model with Time Stable Covariates
  6. Time-Varying Covariates Influencing Trajectory Paths
  7. Start Values                  
  8. Joint Trajectory Model                
  9. Distal Outcome Model        
  10. Wald Tests for Hypotheses Based on the Parameter Estimates           
  11. Exposure Time / Sample Weights  
  12. Dropout Model  
  13. Multi-Trajectory Model  
I have tried to find out on Internet the differences between them. I did understand something, but the most of it is still very unclear. Maybe somebody could explain it in an understandable way. My data: N=1500, 6 repeated measures (3 before the procedure and 3 after that), there is no need to specify the actual distance between these measures, the independent variable is continuous with min=0 and without max, there are a lot of zeros but not very many missing values. What would be the best choice of model?
Some references may also help. I have already read the articles by Nagin and Jones.

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