Can community/population carriage of resistant bacteria predict the incidence of invasive disease by resistant bacteria?

Any takers, I would really appreciate your insights/feedback. Thanks

Interesting question, Ifedayo. In pneumococcal disease, there is a measure that reflects carriage-disease relationship, called "invasiveness ratio". You may read the study by Weinberger et al (AJE 2016), where they showed that carriage/invasiveness data in children can predict invasive disease in adults. The implications extend to forecasting the impact of new vaccines. I am not aware of similar studies specifically designed to assess resistant serotypes, but I assume they wouldn't behave differently. 

Thank you, Omar Okasha.

I have seen the Weinberger paper because I also have a side interest in modeling changes to invasive pneumococcal disease following vaccine introduction using carriage data. I am not sure this model would directly apply to the incidence of resistant IPD following carriage of resistant pneumococci but it is an interesting question to tackle if the data to do so is available.

I agree. I think this is can be demonstrated when studying PCV herd effects; lowering resistant IPD suggests that carriage of resistant serotypes predicts disease in the population.