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In this research article, the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was applied in analyzing open defecation in Madagascar. The data was gathered from the online World Bank data base and covers the period 2000-2017. The out-of-sample forecasts cover the period 2018-2022. The diagnostics tests employed in this study indicate that the open defection series is an I...
Citations
... Tanzania is making rapid progress on many human development and economic indicators (UNDP, 2018) and has ambitiously set a goal of achieving open defecation free status by 2021 (SNV, 2017) but sanitation (Czerniewska et al., 2019), particularly, open defecation remains a significant health threat. This is attributed to the fact that in Tanzania, the people in poverty, the elderly people, people with disabilities and those with other specific vulnerabilities still practice open defecation (SNV, 2020 Nyoni & Nyoni (2020), will adopt the ARIMA method in analyzing open defecation trends in Tanzania and is apparently the first of its kind in the country. ...
Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Tanzania from 2000-2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018-2021. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the Q series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is stable and its residuals are not serially correlated and are also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Tanzania is likely to continue on an upwards trajectory, over the period 2018-2022, from approximately 11.8% to almost 12% of the total population.
