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Medicinal and aromatic plants, such as Salvia hydrangea DC. Ex Benth., have been highly popular all over the world throughout the time. Future climate change is believed to be one of the great threats to the range and resilience of these species. Therefore, recognizing the extensive spatial distribution and potential effects of global climate chang...
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... to the predicted habitat map of the presence potential of the species, 12 16532 km 2 of the study area, 65.3% of the area, 10.0% of the area, 6.1% of the area, and 18.6% 13 of it had the least habitat suitability, moderate habitat suitability, good habitat suitability, and 14 high habitat suitability for S. hydrangea in CVBP, respectively (Fig. 3, 5, 6). Our models 15 forecasted that the eastern and southeastern parts of this province comprised the majority of the 16 suitable habitats (good and high potential habitats, the probability of occurrence: 0.50-1.00) for 17 1 Fig. 3. The ensemble map of habitat suitability for Salvia hydrangea is based on the current 2 conditions. 3 4 As ...
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... hydrangea distribution algorithms (%) (see 7 abbreviations as in Table 1 and Table 2 In this investigation, for the estimation of the effects of future climate change on the distributionmodels (HadGEM2-CC and MIRI-CGCM3). The highly accurate predictive distribution maps 1 (TSS>0.8) from SDMs were applied to incorporate the predictive results. Fig. 5 and 6 illustrate 2 the ensemble forecasting of S. hydrangea distribution under climate change scenarios. ...
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... and those forecasted in 2050 (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5) and 2070 (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5), 5 particularly according to the fact that the size of the area of high habitat suitability (the presence 6 probability was 0.75-1.00) continue to significantly decrease for the two general circulation 7 models from -49% to -99% compared to the current distribution ( Fig. 5c and 6c). Our findings 8 indicated with a high accuracy that the wide distribution of high potential habitats (0.75-1.00, 9 dark green areas) of S. hydrangea seems to be on a decreasing trend in the future ( Fig. 5 and 6). ...
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... continue to significantly decrease for the two general circulation 7 models from -49% to -99% compared to the current distribution ( Fig. 5c and 6c). Our findings 8 indicated with a high accuracy that the wide distribution of high potential habitats (0.75-1.00, 9 dark green areas) of S. hydrangea seems to be on a decreasing trend in the future ( Fig. 5 and 6). ...
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... addition, the area of good habitat suitability (the presence probability was 0.50-0.75) would 11 increase between the current and forecasted distributions (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, HadGEM2-CC) 12 from 85% to 207% in this province (Fig. 5c). Compared with the current distribution, MRI-13 CGCM3 decreases the area size of good habitat suitability from -33% to -72% in 2050; 14 meanwhile, this general circulation model increases the area size of good habitat suitability from 15 11% to 48% in 2070, respectively (Fig. 6c). ...
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... to the current distribution, the total moderate habitat suitability areas (the presence 17 probability was 0.25-0.5) are predicted to increase from 119% to 472% under HadGEM2-CC 18 ( Fig. 5c), but these areas decrease from -10% to -74% under MRI-CGCM3 (Fig. 6c). ...
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... HadGEM2-CC, the total area of the least habitat suitability (the presence probability was 20 0.00-0.25) would decrease from -7% to -74% (Fig. 5c). However, under MRI-CGCM3, the area 21 of the least habitat suitability would increase from 19% to 43% in this province (Fig. 6c). The trend of changes in the increase/decrease rate of habitat suitability in the future (compared to 6 the current distribution), under HadGEM2-CC in each of the specific scenarios would be the 7 same in ...
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... under MRI-CGCM3, the area 21 of the least habitat suitability would increase from 19% to 43% in this province (Fig. 6c). The trend of changes in the increase/decrease rate of habitat suitability in the future (compared to 6 the current distribution), under HadGEM2-CC in each of the specific scenarios would be the 7 same in different years (Fig. 5), but this trend is not the same under MRI-CGCM3 (Fig. 6). 18.8 -9.6 11.1 -64.8 Regarding the above-mentioned issues, the ESDM algorithms displayed that by 2050 suitable 1 habitats of S. hydrangea would increase from 0.0% (RCP4.5 and 8.5, MIRI-CGCM3) to 36.3% 2 (RCP4.5, HadGEM2-CC), but would decrease from 65.3% (RCP4.5, HadGEM2-CC) to ...
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... Compared to the SCBG plants, the plants in the wild grow mainly on cliffs or rocks. However, the rocky structure of the habitat may be low in OM, which may cause a loss of soil nutrients, which greatly affects the rate of decomposition of OM(Ardestani & Ghahfarrokhi, 2021;Luo et al., 2021).Soil pH was negatively correlated with plant growth and flowering indicators for S. daiguii. The soils of the ex situ plants at SCBG were neutral, while the soils in the wild habitat were slightly alkaline, which indicated that the S. daiguii favored a growth environment with neutral soils. ...
Many species of Salvia have excellent ornamental, culinary, and medicinal values. Salvia daiguii, is an ornamental and highly medicinal perennial herb endemic to the prefecture‐level city of Zhangjiajie in Hunan Province, China, with a narrow geographical distribution. However, currently, it has only been assessed as a Critically Endangered species according to the IUCN classification criteria, but its conservation has not yet been studied. This study investigated the distribution and niche characteristics of S. daiguii, and compared the differences in growth, flowering characteristics, and soil nutrients between the wild and ex situ populations. We also analyzed the effects of soil nutrients on plant growth and flowering characteristics. During the survey, we found 274 individuals on a rock approximately 200 m from ZEFR1. Nevertheless, S. daiguii were still restricted in three populations, TNFP, TGM, and ZEFR in Zhangjiajie City, with a total of about 500 plants and less than 250 mature individuals. Our results show that aspects such as adverse environmental conditions, low seedling renewal rate, a lack of soil nutrients, and competition for the characteristic niche of this and other dominant plants in the natural community are the main ecological factors affecting the growth, flowering, and geographic distribution of S. daiguii. Based on the results of field surveys, we recommend that (1) S. daiguii be classified as Critically Endangered C2b and China's List of Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations. (2) Comprehensive conservation strategies were developed, such as the establishment of nature reserves, reintroduction, public education, and institutional development to provide management recommendations related to the conservation of S. daiguii and other endangered plants.
... Many studies have assessed the impact of climate change on potential geographic distributions of endemic species (Ardestani & Ghahfarrokhi, 2021;Erfanian, et al., 2021;Karami et al., 2022;Shaban et al., 2023;Wu et al., 2019). Despite the reported negative effects of climate change, warmer temperatures may benefit some medicinal and endemic species by permitting them to expand their ranges into currently unoccupied areas (Behroozian et al., 2020;Karami et al., 2022;Shaban et al., 2023). ...
Climate change is considered to rank among the most important global issues affecting species' geographic distributions and biodiversity. Understanding effects of climate change on species can enhance conservation efficacy. In this study, we applied ecological niche modeling (ENM) using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approaches to predict the potential geographic distribution of Achillea eriophora DC., a medicinal plant species to Iran in southwestern Asia, under current and future climate scenarios. We evaluated potential distributional areas of the species, under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5) for the period 2041–2060. Most current potential suitable areas were identified for A. eriophora in montane regions. Our results anticipated that the potential distribution of A. eriophora will expand geographically toward higher elevations and northward. However, the species is expected to experience relatively high losses of suitability in its actual habitats under future climate scenarios. Consequently, we recommend regional‐to‐national conservation action plans for A. eriophora in its natural habitats.
... The Alborz Mountains have influenced the formation of a humid to very humid climate along their northern aspect and a dry to semiarid climate along their southern aspect. They have been included in many previous studies examining the effects of climate change in Iranian mountains (Azizi et al. 2013;Ghehsareh Ardestani and Heidari Ghahfarrokhi 2021;Arsalani et al. 2022;Janizadeh et al. 2023;Naseri er al. 2021) Given that most lowland areas surrounding mountains in Iran are semiarid to arid, any climate change-related effects that may reduce mountain water resources have critical implications for the country's agriculture and society (Emadodin et al. 2019;Asakereh and Ashrafi 2023). To ensure appropriate planning and preparation for climate-related water scarcity in the future, a downscaled approach to understanding regional-scale changes in temperature and hydrology is critical. ...
The Alborz Mountains are some of the highest in Iran, and they play an important role in controlling the climate of the country’s northern regions. The land surface temperature (LST) is an important variable that affects the ecosystem of this area. This study investigated the spatiotemporal changes and trends of the nighttime LST in the western region of the Central Alborz Mountains at elevations of 1500–4000 m above sea level. MODIS data were extracted for the period of 2000–2021, and the Mann–Kendall nonparametric test was applied to evaluating the changes in the LST. The results indicated a significant increasing trend for the monthly average LST in May–August along the southern aspect. Both the northern and southern aspects showed decreasing trends for the monthly average LST in October, November, and March and an increasing trend in other months. At all elevations, the average decadal change in the monthly average LST was more severe along the southern aspect (0.60°C) than along the northern aspect (0.37°C). The LST difference between the northern and southern aspects decreased in the cold months but increased in the hot months. At the same elevation, the difference in the lapse rate between the northern and southern aspects was greater in the hot months than in the cold months. With increasing elevation, the lapse rate between the northern and southern aspects disappeared. Climate change was concluded to greatly decrease the difference in LST at different elevations for April–July.
... Detection and attribution of seasonal climate variability has also been considered for lower elevations (hillsides) of the Central Alborz Mountains (Naseri et al. 2021). In contrast, future climate projections with ensemble species distribution modeling for potential habitat shifts of Salvia hydrangea have been considered for the Central Zagros Mountains (Ardestani and Ghahfarrokhi 2021). Collectively, these studies span a wide spectrum of climaterelated investigations for the Zagros and Alborz Mounains, ranging from historical precipitation trends to future habitat projections, climatic attribution, and ecological responses. ...
Much recent scientific focus has been on the impact of climate change on human and natural environments. However, a particular research gap that we address is evaluating the effect of global warming on land surface temperatures across different spatial contexts, such as elevation, in mountain regions. Our aim is to establish the effect of global warming on daytime land surface temperatures at various elevations and slope aspects of the central Alborz Mountains in northern Iran. The land surface temperature (LST) component is extracted from MODIS Terra sensor satellite images for the period 2001–2021 on a monthly basis (240 images were used). Results indicated that increasing surface temperature trends are more pronounced than decreasing trends. Significant increasing surface temperature trends are observed for the months of January through December and June through July. In contrast, October records significant decreasing trends across all study areas and geographic domains. Rates of surface temperature increases are lower in the northern zones compared to the southern zones of the Central Alborz, for elevations ranging from 1500 to 4000 m above sea level. A key finding is that global warming has increased surface temperatures on both the northern and southern aspects of the western and mid regions of the Central Alborz Mountains, while no changes are noted for the eastern region.
... The distribution of these species has been documented, with H. luteovenosa found in humid, subtropical woods, and H. serrata found in temperate forests with varied seasons (Hardin & Pilatowski, 1981;Stern, 1978). These adaptations are consistent with the observed distribution of these species (Ardestani & Ghahfarrokhi, 2021;Yan et al., 2021). Considering that H. luteovenosa is found more frequently in humid habitats, the longer epidermal cells of H. luteovenosa reflect the stronger demand for water absorption (Ardestani & Ghahfarrokhi, 2021). ...
... These adaptations are consistent with the observed distribution of these species (Ardestani & Ghahfarrokhi, 2021;Yan et al., 2021). Considering that H. luteovenosa is found more frequently in humid habitats, the longer epidermal cells of H. luteovenosa reflect the stronger demand for water absorption (Ardestani & Ghahfarrokhi, 2021). In drier habitats, however, the shorter epidermal cells of H. serrata help minimize water loss (Murzabulatova et al., 2023b). ...
... For H. luteovenosa and H. serrata ecological adaptations, the changes in the foliar epidermal structure in this study have important ramifications. H. luteovenosa is adapted to humid, subtropical forests, and H. serrata is adapted to temperate forests with distinct seasons (Ardestani & Ghahfarrokhi, 2021;Baek et al., 2008). The ability of the two species to control gas exchange and manage water loss is affected by changes in stomatal density and size. ...
Understanding the anatomical traits of the foliar epidermis is essential for making precise species identification and categorization. In this study, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to examine the taxonomically significant foliar epidermal traits of Hydrangea luteovenosa and H. serrata . The qualitative and quantitative traits observed included the epidermal cell form, cuticle presence, trichome morphology, stomatal type, and guard cell features. H. serrata had a thin and smooth cuticle, and epidermal cells organized compactly into cubic or hexagonal shapes. The stomata were of the anomocytic type and dispersed, while the trichomes were straightforward, unbranched, and distributed sparsely. The guard cells had distinct cell walls and a kidney‐shaped morphology. These crucial traits for taxonomy were in line with an epidermis composed of three to five layers. Similar polygonal epidermal cells with a compact arrangement were observed in H. luteovenosa , together with a thin and smooth cuticle. The stomata were anomocytic and dispersed, while the trichomes were straightforward, unbranched, and sparsely distributed. The guard cells have distinct cell walls and a kidney‐shaped morphology. The traits were indicative of an epidermal structure with three to five layers. These traits helped correctly identify and categorize these two species of Hydrangea . In addition to assisting in the taxonomic classification of these species and advancing knowledge of their ecological and evolutionary links, the SEM study provided insightful information into the structural variety of these species.
Research Highlights
Microscopic characteristics of H. luteovenosa and H. serrata
Understanding the anatomical traits of the foliar epidermis is essential for precise species identification and categorization
... species to move upwards and reduce their favorable habitats in central Zagros. Ghehsareh Ardestani and Heidari Ghahfarrokhi (2021) conducted this research. Research conducted by Khalatbari Limaki et al. (2021) suggests that Fagus orientalis L., a species found in the Hyrcanian forest, may move to higher altitudes in response to future climate changes. ...
The negative impacts of global climate change are accelerating the decline of pollinators and nectar-producing plant populations and threatening local and global food security. Iran is ranked as the fourth largest honey producer in the world due to the high diversity of taxa of nectar plants, but little attention has been paid to the conservation assessment of Iranian nectar plant species in the face of climate change. Therefore, predicting the potential distribution of these species is fundamentally important for the development of conservation strategies. In this study, we established the MaxEnt model to assess the consequences of climate change on five Nepeta species as representative of Iranian nectar plants. All species distribution models developed in this study were reliable following the AUC values (≥ 80). Our results show that the temperature and humidity factors such as the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), precipitation of the wettest quarter (Bio16), and mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), and geological and pedological factors such as elevation, soil organic carbon content, sand content, slope, solar radiation, PH, and silt content are important environmental variables affecting the distribution patterns of the target taxa. The MaxEnt model predicts that the area of the suitable habitats of Nepeta cataria, Nepeta meyeri, Nepeta pungens, and Nepeta saccharata will be reduced under two optimistic and pessimistic scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s. Under RCP 2.6, suitable habitats for Nepeta fissa are projected to decrease by 22.57% by 2050 and by 25.06% by 2070. It decreases by 14.63% under RCP 8.5 and increases by 16.66% in the 2070s and 2050s. Regardless, regular monitoring and in situ as well as ex situ conservation is the main management action for the conservation of target taxa.
... Therefore, it is very important for species protection and sustainable utilization of resources to carry out research on the distribution pattern and change of species' suitable habitat under the background of climate change and to understand the characteristics and change trend of species' future geographical distribution pattern. Studying the relationship between plant climate demand and geographical distribution and understanding the response of plant distribution pattern to climate change is of great significance to put forward reasonable utilization strategies and planting zoning, and to reveal the history of species formation, migration and diffusion (Ardestani and Ghahfarrokhi, 2021). Global climate change is an important driving factor to change the geographical distribution pattern of species (Nascimbene et al., 2020). ...
Finger citron (Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis (Hoola van Nooten) Swingle; Rutaceae: Citrus) is an important plant for both medicine and food. Due to the lack of suitability analysis, many problems have arisen in its planting. According to the daily observation data, Kriging interpolation was selected to spatialize precipitation and temperature data. MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to simulate the suitable areas of finger citron in China from the perspectives of bioclimate, soil, topographic factors and human activities in 2050s and 2090s. Results showed that temperature annual range (Bio7), annual precipitation (Bio12), human footprint (Hf), elevation (El) and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were identified as the dominant environmental variables related to the distribution of finger citron. Spatiotemporal distribution of annual precipitation (Bio12) showed that in the future, the precipitation in South China tends to decrease first (2050s) and then increase (2090s). The spatio-temporal analysis of temperature annual range (Bio7) showed that the 20-30 ℃ region was relatively stable in the Sichuan Basin and the middle and lower reaches of the Pearl River Basin. Under the future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area showed a significant increase trend in 2090s, and the change of most, moderately and poorly suitable habitats showed no obvious law. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the centroid of the most suitable habitat of finger citron would move to the northwest, southeast and southwest respectively. Our results can effectively carry out to promote the recovery of its population.
... Simulations using a single model inevitably produce under-fitting or over-fitting problems, but the EM can reduce the uncertainty of model fitting [52,83]. The EM can combine the predictive strengths of multiple models, reduce the weaknesses of individual models, improve overall predictive accuracy, and effectively address the uncertainty of model extrapolation [84][85][86]. ...
Mangrove forests are one of the most productive and seriously threatened ecosystems in the world. The widespread invasion of Spartina alterniflora has seriously imperiled the security of mangroves as well as coastal mudflat ecosystems. Based on a model evaluation index, we selected RF, GBM, and GLM as a predictive model for building a high-precision ensemble model. We used the species occurrence records combined with bioclimate, sea–land topography, and marine environmental factors to predict the potentially suitable habitats of mangrove forests and the potentially suitable invasive habitats of S. alterniflora in the southeastern coast of China. We then applied the invasion risk index (IRI) to assess the risk that S. alterniflora would invade mangrove forests. The results show that the suitable habitats for mangrove forests are mainly distributed along the coastal provinces of Guangdong, Hainan, and the eastern coast of Guangxi. The suitable invasive habitats for S. alterniflora are mainly distributed along the coast of Zhejiang, Fujian, and relatively less in the southern provinces. The high-risk areas for S. alterniflora invasion of mangrove forests are concentrated in Zhejiang and Fujian. Bioclimate variables are the most important variables affecting the survival and distribution of mangrove forests and S. alterniflora. Among them, temperature is the most important environmental variable determining the large-scale distribution of mangrove forests. Meanwhile, S. alterniflora is more sensitive to precipitation than temperature. Our results can provide scientific insights and references for mangrove forest conservation and control of S. alterniflora.
... Pseudo-absence or background data are only generated in locations where there are no presence data and are equivalent to the number of presence data using randomly sampling grid cells across Isfahan province. We filtered background points by randomly selecting a background point within a single grid cell (1 × 1 km) 25 . ...
... Elevation had a noticeable impact on S. inflata within our research 39,66 . Similar results were obtained by Gahyaningsih et al. 6 and Ghehsareh Ardestani and Heidari Ghahfarrokhi 25 in their studies on medicinal plant distribution found the same result 6,25 . We find that S. inflata distribution was likely towards higher elevations (to shift upwards) with consistent warming across Isfahan province that both low temperature and water availability limit upward shifts at upper elevation limits. ...
Stachys inflata Benth. is a perennial shrub plant, with powerful natural antioxidant agents, which is recognized as a famous medicinal plant that is widely applied to treat Infection, Asthma, and Rheumatism. Iran is renowned as a center of diversity for Stachys, however, the ideal habitats of S. inflata in this nation remain unknown. The potential and future distribution of suitable habitats for S. inflata were projected using an ensembles ecological niche model in Isfahan province, Iran. We used occurrence data (using GPS), bioclimatic and topographic variables from the Chelsa and WorldClim databases to model the current and future potential distribution of this valuable species. The results showed that: (i) S. inflata is mainly distributed in the south, southwest, center, and west of the Isfahan province, and the excellent habitats of S. inflata accounted for 14.34% of the 107,000 km² study area; (ii) mean annual temperature, mean daily temperature of wettest quarter, annual precipitation, and elevation were the four most important variables that affect the distribution of S. inflata, with a cumulative contribution of 56.55%; and (iii) about the half (− 42.36%) of the currently excellent habitats of S. inflata show a tendency to decrease from now to the 2080s, while often the area of other S. inflata habitats increases (the area of unsuitable habitat: 5.83%, the area of low habitat suitability: 24.68%, the area of moderate habitat suitability: 2.66%, and the area of high habitat suitability: 2.88%). The increase in the area of other S. inflata habitats is different and they are less favorable than the excellent habitat. The results help establishing a framework for long-term in-situ and ex-situ conservation and management practices in habitats of S. inflata in rangeland and agricultural ecosystems.
... These woody communities are widely distributed and cover many areas in the west, northeast, and south. Furthermore, Iran is known to be a center of diversity and the origin of many crop wild relatives (CWRs) of the domesticated almond trees with many related properties including resistance to biological stresses, drought, salinity, flowering, and self-reproduction, providing a unique gene pool for use in the breeding of P. amygdalus Batsch (Ghahreman & Attar, 1999;Sorkheh et al., 2016). ...
... The distribution, flowering, growth, and development of plant species are temperature dependent, and at specific optimum temperatures, the species can perform physiological activities related to their growth and development, e.g., germination and breaking dormancy of seeds and buds. Up to now, many ecological studies have emphasized the influence of these environmental factors on the distribution of plant species (Ghehsareh Ardestani & Heidari Ghahfarrokhi, 2021;Islam et al., 2021;Naghipour et al., 2021). In addition, precipitation plays an important role in plant species distribution and diversity by influencing seed germination, seedling growth, and survival, as well as phenology. ...
Wild almond species are one of the main pillars of Iran's woodlands, and the land is considered one of the centers of their diversity and speciation. Predicting the impact of climate change on the distribution of wild almonds is essential for their conservation management. Here, we established a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to determine four Iranian Prunus species' current and future distributions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s. As a result, the performance of all models was good or excellent according to the AUC value (≥ 80). The permutation importance showed that solar radiation, soil depth, slope, elevation, sand, and silt content were the key environmental variables influencing the potential distributions of the four species. The results showed that, in the two studied climatic scenarios, the habitat suitability of P. haussknechtii, P. lycioides, and P. scoparia had a positive range change, while the range change was negative for P. elaeagnifolia in all the above‐mentioned climatic scenarios except RCP 2.6 in the 2050s. This study highlights the need to design conservation, cultivation, and rehabilitation strategies for the species under study.
