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(a) Different types of Generation 2010–2050. (b) Showing growing demand and production of electricity 2010–2050.
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As a result of signing the Kyoto Agreement the UK will need to reduce carbon emissions to 20% of their 1990 value by 2050. This will require a complete change in power generation over the next 40years. The system involved is immensely complex, with multiple agents, levels of description, new technologies and new policies and actions. However, here...
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... also have to allow for Coastal power generation through tidal barrages and wave generators, as well as for biomass generation based on wood, miscanthus or ethanol production. The 2050 distributions of coastal and biomass power generation is shown in Fig. 7a and b.The overall growth and decline of the different possible power sources is shown in Fig. 8. For a typical model exploration, demand, following the electrification of transport and heating, the demand is for 180 Gw. In order to respond to peak demand, the total capacity is 196 Gw and the growth of the different types of power generation is shown in Fig. 8a. CO 2 reduction is indeed around 80% as required. In Fig. 9 we see the ...Context 2
... overall growth and decline of the different possible power sources is shown in Fig. 8. For a typical model exploration, demand, following the electrification of transport and heating, the demand is for 180 Gw. In order to respond to peak demand, the total capacity is 196 Gw and the growth of the different types of power generation is shown in Fig. 8a. CO 2 reduction is indeed around 80% as required. In Fig. 9 we see the distribution of Stress which reflects the ratio of demand over supply (firm production plus 30% of the intermittent capacity). The low wind and low nuclear scenarios require great investments in coastal generation and bio/waste production to still attain the 80% CO ...Similar publications
A technology crucial for the transformation towards a sustainable energy paradigm, electric mobility recently has also drawn interest within the IS community. Electric vehicles are used for energy storage in residential energy management systems as well as in business models that aggregate the storage capacity of thousands of them to enter energy m...
Citations
... Allen and Liz [150] modeled the UK energy system with ABM to explore the possible pathways to achieve an 80% reduction of CO 2 emissions by 2050. The agents decide to adopt generation technologies based on calculating the attractivity index, which considers the relative importance of carbon reduction and the financial cost. ...
... The spatial resolution of the ABM varies depending on the system boundaries. Noticeably, ABM can simulate the system on the national level, as shown by Allen and Varga [150]. Hodge et al. [154] proposed a multi-paradigm modeling framework to study the new technologies' impact on an energy system. ...
... The spatial resolution of the ABM varies depending on the system boundaries. Noticeably, ABM can simulate the system on the national level, as shown by Allen and Varga [150]. ...
The need for a greener and more sustainable energy system evokes a need for more extensive energy system transition research. The penetration of distributed energy resources and Internet of Things technologies facilitate energy system transition towards the next generation of energy system concepts. The next generation of energy system concepts include “integrated energy system”, “multi-energy system”, or “smart energy system”. These concepts reveal that future energy systems can integrate multiple energy carriers with autonomous intelligent decision making. There are noticeable trends in using the agent-based method in research of energy systems, including multi-energy system transition simulation with agent-based modeling (ABM) and multi-energy system management with multi-agent system (MAS) modeling. The need for a comprehensive review of the applications of the agent-based method motivates this review article. Thus, this article aims to systematically review the ABM and MAS applications in multi-energy systems with publications from 2007 to the end of 2021. The articles were sorted into MAS and ABM applications based on the details of agent implementations. MAS application papers in building energy systems, district energy systems, and regional energy systems are reviewed with regard to energy carriers, agent control architecture, optimization algorithms, and agent development environments. ABM application papers in behavior simulation and policy-making are reviewed with regard to the agent decision-making details and model objectives. In addition, the potential future research directions in reinforcement learning implementation and agent control synchronization are highlighted. The review shows that the agent-based method has great potential to contribute to energy transition studies with its plug-and-play ability and distributed decision-making process.
... Bisherige nationale und internationale Studien zur Transformation des Energiesystems konzentrieren sich vor allem auf die Berechnung des Energiepotenzials (Ghorbani et al. 2017), sind nicht ausreichend flächenscharf oder ohne Berücksichtigung der Landschaftsästhetik an gelegt (Klaus et al. 2010;Allen, Varga 2014;BMVI 2015). Die Studien berechnen nationale Potenziale auf Basis eher grober Eingangsdaten oder gehen von heutigen Bedingungen aus: Die zukünftige Entwick lung des Naturschutzes, die Stromnachfrage, technologische Innova tionen oder die Verfügbarkeit von Flächen in den nächsten 30 Jahren werden nicht berücksichtigt (GüngörDemirci 2015;BarringtonLeigh, Ouliaris 2017;Drechsler et al. 2017;Rinne et al. 2018). ...
Die Energiewende genießt in Deutschland sehr hohe Zustimmung in der Bevölkerung. Allerdings sind bei diesem Transformationsprozess auch andere Belange wie der Schutz der biologischen Vielfalt und die Interessen der Anwohnerinnen und Anwohner zu berücksichtigen. Die vorliegende Studie zeigt mit Szenarien Wege zur Lösung dieser Konflikte. Dazu wurde ein GIS-Modell entwickelt, das die Empfindlichkeiten von Mensch und Natur berücksichtigt und flächenkonkret sowie summativ für Deutschland Potenziale für erneuerbare Energien berechnet und einem für 2050 projizierten Bedarf gegenüberstellt. Das Modell dient der Entscheidungsunterstützung: Sowohl der Energiebedarf als auch die eingegebenen Daten können als Variablen behandelt werden. Die Projektionen zeigen, dass der Strombedarf von 1 500 Terawattstunden(TWh)/a im Jahr 2050 bei einer intelligenten Verteilung von On-Shore-Windenergieanlagen und einer sehr ambitionierten Nutzung von Dachflächen mit Photovoltaik gedeckt werden kann. Das Modell liefert die Grundlage für ein Werkzeug, das einer wissensbasierten Lenkung der Energiewende dient und in Zukunft bereitgestellt werden kann.
https://bfn.bsz-bw.de/frontdoor/deliver/index/docId/1085/file/NuL2021-11-02.pdf
... The LUT model was used for several national case studies that calculate, for example, the potential future developments in the energy system of Kazakhstan, 10 Turkey 14 and South Africa. 15 Othernational studies have calculated the energy potential using rather coarse input data 16,17 and considering only nature within protected areas. Furthermore, all studies assume presentday conditions and do not consider future developments in electricity demand, expected for technological innovations or land availability in the next 30 years. ...
Although the transition to energy supply through renewables (RE) is, in general, politically accepted in Germany, its progress is slowed by conflicting interests, primarily nature conservation and protesting residents. This study aims to find ways to solve these conflicts in Germany. To this end, the researchers developed a geospatial model that calculates RE potentials and vulnerabilities of nature and humans. Both data input and some evaluation standards are variables in the model. The outcomes are compared to an estimated total energy demand in 2050. Two ambitious scenarios (“no regret” and “compromise”) show that a maximum of 4% of the German territory is available to meet the energy demand. This demand can be met using PV in urban areas and wind in rural landscapes without significantly impairing nature's and people's wellbeing. Solar parks and other potentials not considered in the model are treated as a reserve, which can be included if the energy targets are not met under the assumed scenario conditions. Such reserves also provide flexibility for co‐determination in public participation.
... This ABM also focuses on the German electricity sector, and studies the impact of the EU ETS and of increasing renewable energies on the structure of the market and on the generators' investment choices. The CASCADE ABM (Rylatt et al., 2013;Allen et al., 2013;Allen and Varga, 2014) also has electricity generators as main agents, but the purpose of the ABM is mainly to study their short term bidding decisions in the UK electricity market, as opposed to long-term investments and their impacts on the low-carbon transition. Kraan et al. (2018Kraan et al. ( , 2019 use an ABM to study the behaviour of heterogeneous investors with different views of the future, and whose investment choices are affected by their past performance, on the long-term evolution of the electricity sector. ...
The energy sector transition requires large financial investments in low-carbon generation technologies, to be delivered by a variety of actors with heterogeneous characteristics. Real-world actors have bounded-rationality, reflected by their limited foresight and heterogeneous expectations, and as past trends influence their investments. Agent-based models are highly suitable modelling frameworks to study such realistic and complex energy transition dynamics. This paper introduces BRAIN-Energy, a novel agent-based model which explicitly allows to explore the impacts of actors' heterogeneous characteristics, and of their interactions, on the transition pathways of the UK, German and Italian electricity sectors. Results show that actors' heterogeneous characteristics pose barriers to effective decarbonisation efforts, affect the speed of the transition, and impact the transition's security of supply and affordability dimensions. Limited foresight and path-dependency lead to investment cycles (both virtuous and vicious). The country comparison highlights how such effects are stronger in markets with more heterogeneous market players.
... The sustainable perspective on smart companies can be developed primarily by using technologies to react more quickly to change, reduce overproduction and waste, and incorporate smart grids for efficient energy management [134]- [136], which seems to be happening according to our results (Fig. 13, above). In this context, our finding shows the energy issue is considered as one of the main factors to promote sustainable development [137], [138]. The industrial sector is one of the largest consumers of energy [139]- [141] and in order to progress towards sustainable energy production and use it is necessary that the use of renewable energies increase progressively [84], such as solar, wind, and water, among others [142]. ...
The increasing number of studies that underline the relationship between industry 4.0 and sustainability shows that sustainability is one of the pillars of smart factories. Through a bibliometric performance and network analysis (BPNA), this research describes the existing relationship between industry 4.0 and sustainability, the strategic themes from 2010 to March 2019, as well as the research gaps for proposing future work. With this goal in mind, 894 documents and 5621 keywords were included for bibliometric analysis, which were treated with the support of Science Mapping Analysis Software Tool (SciMAT). The bibliometric performance analysis presented the number of publications over time and the most productive journals. The strategic diagram shown 12 main research clusters, which were measured according to bibliometric indicators. Moreover, the network structure of each cluster was depicted, and the patterns found were discussed based on the documents associated to the network. Our findings show the scientific efforts are focused to enhance economic and environmental aspects and highlights a lack of effort relating the social sphere. Finally, the paper concludes the challenges, perspectives, and suggestions for the potential future work in the field of study relating to industry 4.0 and sustainability.
... Most of the transformations, e.g., extreme weather events, a global recession, or privacy evaporation with the arrival of big data -send us specific signals to wake us up. 1 The Greenpeace activists steadily holler that the overuse of resources leads to environmental catastrophes (warming up of the world's oceans, droughts in California, erosion of the sea cost in Florida, floods in Britain, etc.) and the spoiling of the planet's ecosystem. Each and every year think-tanks agonize over all sorts of crises that will happen from economic to political to energy supply or refugees settling, thus making society slip deeper into them. ...
Philosophers continually undertake attempts to comprehend and conceptualize the present. Nowadays, the essential features highlighted by the thinkers working in this field are feelings of anxiety and doom. They are tightly connected to the understanding that the present has entered a new, unfamiliar and hitherto unknown phase of its existence.
The author presents one of the views on the contemporary times proposed by the modern British Muslim philosopher Ziauddin Sardar. His concept of Postnormal Times highlights three critical characteristics of modernity: complexity, chaos, and contradiction. They interwove a whole dimension of human existence and transformed it into a new, unfamiliar way. Detecting this feature, Sardar concludes that the old methods of solving problems developed by the humanity throughout the previous history cease to be valid and reliable.
... Bisherige nationale und internationale Studien zur Transformation des Energiesystems konzentrieren sich vor allem auf die Berechnung des Energiepotenzials (Ghorbani et al. 2017), sind nicht ausreichend flächenscharf oder ohne Berücksichtigung der Landschaftsästhetik an gelegt (Klaus et al. 2010;Allen, Varga 2014;BMVI 2015). Die Studien berechnen nationale Potenziale auf Basis eher grober Eingangsdaten oder gehen von heutigen Bedingungen aus: Die zukünftige Entwick lung des Naturschutzes, die Stromnachfrage, technologische Innova tionen oder die Verfügbarkeit von Flächen in den nächsten 30 Jahren werden nicht berücksichtigt (GüngörDemirci 2015;BarringtonLeigh, Ouliaris 2017;Drechsler et al. 2017;Rinne et al. 2018). ...
... While several spatially detailed UK models have been used for exploring energy transitions, these have tended to focus on technological sub-systems such as electricity [68][69][70][71][72][73], hydrogen [74][75][76][77], and bioenergy [78,79]. These models have lacked a whole energy system perspective and have often not fully endogenised the effects of transitions in energy infrastructure on other sectors such as building heating and transport. ...
This paper demonstrates the integration of institutional perspectives on energy system transitions into formal energy economic modelling. The perspectives of key UK energy system stakeholders have been used to develop three socio-technical narratives of energy system change that are quantified in a 24-region techno-economic model of the country. Implementing these three narratives in the model environment allows their feasibility for meeting climate targets to be assessed as well as articulating their implied sub-national regional outlooks for technologies and investment. The latter elements are discussed in light of the regional socioeconomic and demographic landscape. The study highlights some of the regional political dimensions associated with future investment targeting in the UK energy system. In particular, energy policy decisions may create tensions between the four different UK government administrations as well as raising important questions about regional economic development and how an equitable energy transition can be achieved for all.
... No STET model studies were found that explored socio-technical transitions in non-residential buildings. CASCADE: An Agent Based Framework for Modeling The Dynamics of Smart Electricity Systems ( Rylatt et al., 2013) Exploring Possible Energy Futures For The UK: Evolving Power Generation ( Allen et al., 2013) Modelling sustainable energy futures for the UK ( Allen and Varga, 2014) Chappin's Power Sector Agent-Based Model (ABM) ...
Many existing technical feasibility and modelling studies in the energy field are criticised for their limited treatment of societal actors and socio-political dynamics, poor representation of the co-evolving nature of society and technology, and hence an inability to analyse socio-technical change. At the same time, prominent conceptual frameworks of socio-technical transitions that address these elements are often found to be difficult to operationalize in quantitative energy analyses that meet policy development requirements. However a new energy modelling paradigm has started to emerge for integrating both quantitative modelling and conceptual socio-technical transitions. This paper provides a taxonomy for this new model category: ‘socio-technical energy transition’ (STET) models. A review of existing STET models and their applications to the energy supply, buildings and transport sectors is provided. Following this review, the paper reflects on the extent to which these existing quantitative models captured the variety of factors covered in socio-technical transitions theory, highlights the challenges associated with their theoretical and behavioural validation, and proposes future development priorities for STET models.
... In order to fulfil our obligations concerning CO2 emissions reduction, we need to reduce energy consumption and move towards renewable generation (DECC, Pathways 2011, UKERC Energy Scenarios 2050, HMG, 2009, 2011Rylatt et al. 2013, Allen andVarga, 2014). This will require a major transition in our society ( Geels, 2005;Geels and Schot, 2010;Elzen and Wieczorek, 2005;Berg and Bruinsma, 2008;Foxon, 2012). ...
The paper looks at the potential for multi-utility service providers to create business models that compete with traditional utility product providers whereby customers’ services increase and resource efficiency is improved. The objective in our modeling is to show the how Multi-Utility Service Companies (MUSCos) could invade the market, changing it from markets focused on selling, for example, energy to customers, to markets aimed at selling efficiency. The output of our modeling is the extent to which the resource efficiency of UK homes can be significantly improved, and we show this in 10 centile categories. The key difference between the two types of providers (Traditional and MUSCo) is that while households can switch traditional suppliers fairly rapidly (3 months), if a household signs up to get house improvements and utilities from a particular MUSCo, then the arrangement will be at least 5 years, and possibly longer. This means that households, once they sign up are no longer ‘on the market’ for utility supply. Although getting a contract signed may take much more time for a salesman than simply getting a normal utility order, the fruits and the income are guaranteed to the MUSCo for 5 or 10 years. Their sales force efforts can be switched to non-contracted households. So, essentially both utilities and MUSCos are trying to sell to the normal, noncontracted households. The real advantage that a MUSCo customer is that there is a discount on both the house improvements offered and the price of future supplies of energy and water. MUSCos are able to offer reduced cost of house insulation, appliances which reduce consumption and waste from multiple utilities, and can achieve marginal profits from financing of these appliances.
