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Variations in the annual mean proportion (in %) of perennial ice (at 30-yr averaging) based on the simulations using the AOGCM ECHAM5/MPI-OM model under scenario SRES-A2 for the ( 1 ) Barents and ( 2 ) Kara sea sectors and ( 3 ) the Laptev Sea.
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Trends in variations of the ice cover of the Arctic Basin were analyzed based on the daily data of simulations for the 21st century to estimate possible perspectives of the Northern Sea Route. Numerical simulations using the coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) ECHAM5/MPI-OM were used in the analysis [1, 2] under a sufficientl...
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Citations
... Considering the variability and uncertainty of sea ice, existing studies have employed various methods, including statistical models, machine learning models, and atmospheric-ocean general circulation models, to monitor and simulate sea ice extent and thickness. Mokhov et al. [9] were pioneers in proposing the use of climate models to assess the potential for trans-Arctic transport in studies of Arctic sea ice and navigability of shipping lanes. The research conducted an evaluation of the navigational potential of Arctic routes using simulated data sourced from the CMIP3 dataset. ...
Global warming has accelerated the melting of Arctic sea ice, providing favorable conditions for Arctic shipping. Arctic ports are gaining prominence in shipping networks and international trade. Accessibility is a key indicator of port facilitation, and identifying trends in Arctic port accessibility holds significance for Arctic route planning and port development. To achieve this, this paper develops a modeling framework for assessing the accessibility of Arctic ports. First, we utilize the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) model to predict sea ice conditions and quantify the navigation risk for open water (OW) vessels and Arc4 ice-class (Arc4) vessels during the summer months of 2030–2050. The A-star (A*) algorithm is then used to plan the vessel’s shortest route while avoiding high-risk waters. Finally, changes in the accessibility of Arctic ports are calculated by using an improved gravity model. The framework is applied for the quantitative analysis of the accessibility of Chinese coastal ports to Arctic ports. The results indicate that accessibility to Arctic ports will gradually increase for all Chinese ports in the future, with the port of Shanghai continuing to maintain its prominence under the trend of melting sea ice.
... The prolonged open water conditions in the marginal Arctic seas open new prospects for navigation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) (e.g. Mokhov et al 2007, Khon et al 2010, Rogers et al 2013, Stephenson et al 2013, Larsen et al 2014, Barnhart et al 2015, Shalina 2015, Aksenov et al 2016, Laliberté et al 2016. The NSR shortens the transport distance from northern Europe to northeast Asia and northwest North America by up to 50% relative to the southern routes through Suez or Panama Canal. ...
Rapid Arctic sea ice decline over the last few decades opens new perspectives for Arctic marine navigation. Further warming in the Arctic will promote the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as an alternative to the conventional Suez or Panama Canal routes for intercontinental shipping. Here we use both satellite data and CMIP5 ensemble of climate models to estimate the NSR transit window allowing intercontinental navigation between Atlantic and Pacific regions. To this end, we introduce a novel approach to calculate start and end dates of the navigation season along the NSR. We show that modern climate models are able to reproduce the mean time of the NSR transit window and its trend over the last few decades. The selected models demonstrate that the rate of increase of the NSR navigation season will slow down over the next few decades with the RCP4.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century ensemble-mean estimates show an increase of the NSR transit window by about 4 and 6.5 months according to RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Estimated trends for the end date of the navigation season are found to be stronger compared to those for the start date.
... Reduction in the extent and duration of sea ice within the Arctic opens a sea route between the nuclear markets of the east and the reprocessing and nuclear technology facilities of Europe with the potential for increased transport of nuclear materials within the Arctic as well as increased use of ships with nuclear propulsion systems (Mokhov et al., 2007). The potential consequences of an accident involving the sea transport of nuclear waste near the Arctic has been elaborated upon by Iosjpe et al. (2009) and indicate that such transport constitutes a significant risk for the region in the event of an accident. ...
Current predictions as to the impacts of climate change in general and Arctic climate change in particular are such that a wide range of processes relevant to Arctic contaminants are potentially vulnerable. Of these, radioactive contaminants and the processes that govern their transport and fate may be particularly susceptible to the effects of a changing Arctic climate. This paper explores the potential changes in the physical system of the Arctic climate system as they are deducible from present day knowledge and model projections. As a contribution to a better preparedness regarding Arctic marine contamination with radioactivity we present and discuss how a changing marine physical environment may play a role in altering the current understanding pertaining to behavior of contaminant radionuclides in the marine environment of the Arctic region.
... Global climate models simulate a further decrease of Arctic sea ice cover in the twenty-first century if atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise (Arzel et al. 2006;Zhang and Walsh 2006;Kattsov et al. 2007;Stroeve et al. 2007). A considerable increase in the length of navigation season ( Mokhov et al. 2007) for both northern passages can be foreseen, which makes them a real alternative to the current conventional ship transport routes. ...
The ability of modern climate models to simulate ice season length in the Arctic, its recent changes and navigation season
on Arctic marine routes along the Eurasian and the North American coastlines is evaluated using satellite ice cover observations
for 1979–2007. Simulated mean sea ice season duration fits remarkably well to satellite observations and so do the simulated
20th century changes using historical forcing. This provides confidence to extend the analysis to projections for the twenty-first
century. The navigation season for the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and Northwest Passage (NWP), alternative sea routes from the
North Atlantic to Asia, will considerably increase during this century. The models predict prolongation of the season with
a free passage from 3 to 6months for the NSR and from 2 to 4months for the NWP by the end of twenty-first century according
to A1B scenario of the IPCC. This suggests that transit through the NSR from Western Europe to the Far East may be up to 15%
more profitable in comparison to Suez Canal transit by the end of the twenty-first century.
... The decline of the Arctic sea ice in September 2007 to a minimum level made the NWP fully navigable for the first time over the whole period of observations [5]. Model estimates show6789 that the Arctic sea ice will continue to retreat further under anthropogenic scenarios, thus significantly extending the navigation season and bringing prospects for using new highhlatii tude shipping routes nearer to our days [10]. The goal of this study is to analyze ice conditions in the Arctic Basin with assessments of possible changes in the duration of the navigation season on the NSR and NWP in the 21st century. ...
Assessments of current and expected climatic changes in the Arctic Basin are obtained, including ice-cover characteristics
influencing the duration of the navigation season on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) along Eurasia and the Northwest Passage
(NWP) along North America. The ability of modern climate models to simulate the average duration of the navigation season
and its changes over recent decades is estimated. The duration of the navigation season for the NSR and NWP in the 21st century
is estimated using an ensemble of climate models. The assessments differ significantly for the NSR and NWP. Unlike the NSR,
the NWP reveals no large changes in the navigation season in the first 30 years of the 21st century. From the multimodel simulations,
the expected duration of the navigation period by the late 21st century will be approximately 3 to 6 months for the NSR and
2 to 4 months for the NWP under the moderate anthropogenic SRES-A1B scenario.
As global warming continues in the 21st century, one can expect a significant increase in the duration of the navigation period along the Northern Sea Route. In this study we found that, according to the representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of the anthropogenic impact, the expected duration of the navigation period along the Northern Sea Route in the middle of the 21st century would be two to three months and three to six months by the end of the century.
New estimates of changes in the duration of the navigation period for the Northern Sea Route (NSR) are obtained based on calculations with the current generation of global climate models under moderate anthropogenic impacts in the 21st century. In order to obtain more reliable estimates, it was analyzed whether or not the present climate models can simulate both the average conditions of sea ice and their interannual variation and tendencies to change in the Arctic basin, in particular on the NSR, as compared to the satellite data for recent decades.
It is generally accepted that the Arctic is warming at a rapid pace. Studies have shown that with this warming trend, sea ice and glaciers are melting and thus sea levels are rising. However, the situation might be more severe than originally anticipated. The ice is retreating a lot more quickly than was projected, with an absolute low point in 2007. a second low point occurred in 2008 and September 2010 provided us with the third lowest sea ice extent in the satellite record. Maybe even more important than the decline in sea ice extent, is the fact that the ice volume is decreasing with it. The ice pack is becoming more and more vulnerable to melting due to the decline in the amount of old, thick ice and it appears that five-year or older ice has nearly completely disappeared from the Arctic. This Arctic melt opens up new possibilities for (trans) Arctic shipping. Of particular importance was key finding # 6 of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report, which stated that "Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport and access to resources". Indeed, due to this warming trend, the Northwest Passage, the Northern Sea Route and maybe even the Central Arctic Route in the future, are opening up. In the fall of 2008 the first commercial ship transported cargo from the east through the Northwest Passage and in 2009 two German cargo vessels, the MV Beluga Fraternity and the MV Beluga Foresight were the first foreign flag ships to sail the entire Northern Sea Route. This year navigation has really picked up in the Northern Sea Route and therefore 2010 can be viewed as the breakthrough year for trans-Arctic commercial shipping, with more voyages planned for 2011. These new developments are again raising questions concerning the outstanding maritime boundaries in the area, the legal status of the waters concerned, the efficiency of current solutions and the extent of national jurisdiction. As national legal regimes will need to adapt, substantial changes are to be expected to meet these new challenges. Meanwhile, as shipping increases, the stress on the already fragile environment increases with it, which results in great concerns regarding the preservation and protection of the environment. Environmentalists warn about the dangers of vessel-source pollution and emphasize that the lack of infrastructure, information and mandatory legislation, are issues that should urgently be addressed at an international level. This paper will provide insights about recent developments in the Arctic in the abovementioned areas.
