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Metering air traffic requires aircraft to delay their fly-over time at designated enroute fixes. This paper presents an analysis of achievable airborne delays by speed control. To ease real-world implementation, current practices set the same achievable airborne delay to all flights flying the same airway, instead of customizing the achievable dela...
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... as follows. Section II presents the achievable airborne delay by speed control. In Section III, an approach to airspeed estimation is introduced based on radar track data. Through illustrative numerical simulations in Section IV, the achievable delay and its compliance rate are analyzed statistically. The paper ends with conclusions in Section V. Fig. 1 illustrates the definition of relation between the ground speed, airspeed and wind speed in the horizontal plane; v g is the ground speed; v is the true airspeed; ψ is the true track angle; w is the wind vector in the horizontal plane; w c and w a are the cross-and along-track wind speed, respectively; and w n and w e are the wind ...
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... types. The track data are recorded over a week of odd months. In this study we use the 112 days track data from September 2014to March 2017 In this study, v ECON of each flight is estimated based on the track data of each corresponding flight. Using the track data with time histories of longitude and latitude, only the ground speed v g in Fig. 1 can be estimated. Then, the northward and eastward wind speed components, w n and w e , are obtained from the numerical weather prediction data. For the numerical weather prediction data, we employ the Meso Scale Model (MSM) provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The MSM data 1 include atmospheric properties such as wind and ...
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... every 0.125 degrees in longitude and 0.1 degrees in latitude at every 50-100 hPa pressure altitudes. In the analysis, the wind and temperature data are interpolated to match the aircraft track data spatially and temporally by using linear interpolation. Thus, by using the radar track data and MSM data, the time history of true airspeed v in Fig. 1 can be ...
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... in cruise are typically controlled to maintain a constant Mach number (or indicated airspeed (IAS)) and pressure altitude, hence v ECON and flight level are assumed to be constant during cruising. Using the radar track data and MSM data, the time history of true airspeed v in Fig. 1 are calculated for each flight, and a single value of v ECON is determined by the linear least-squares method. In order to demonstrate the accuracy of airspeed estimation, actual and estimated airspeeds are compared. The actual airspeed is obtained from a quick access recorder (QAR), which is an on-board flight data recorder. Fig. 3 ...
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... errors on flight time prediction is. Concern about uncertainties is out of scope in this paper, however, it will be considered in future research. Moreover, as shown in Figs. 8 and 9, a drop is seen in all cases around longer CTO assignment time. It is because the CTO assignment time is preceded by the entry time to Fukuoka FIR as shown in Fig. 10. Also, Fig. 10 illustrates the Fukuoka FIR entry rates in different seasons. It should be noted that summer data are comprised of May, July and September, while winter data consist of November, January, and March. Polar jet stream wind blows over Japan from west to east throughout the year, and generally the jet stream tends to be ...
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... flight time prediction is. Concern about uncertainties is out of scope in this paper, however, it will be considered in future research. Moreover, as shown in Figs. 8 and 9, a drop is seen in all cases around longer CTO assignment time. It is because the CTO assignment time is preceded by the entry time to Fukuoka FIR as shown in Fig. 10. Also, Fig. 10 illustrates the Fukuoka FIR entry rates in different seasons. It should be noted that summer data are comprised of May, July and September, while winter data consist of November, January, and March. Polar jet stream wind blows over Japan from west to east throughout the year, and generally the jet stream tends to be stronger in winter ...
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... and March. Polar jet stream wind blows over Japan from west to east throughout the year, and generally the jet stream tends to be stronger in winter than in summer. Accordingly, for airways 1 to 4, the flight times to the CTO fixes generally become shorter in winter than in summer because of the stronger tail wind in winter. Thus, as shown in Fig. 10, the FIR entry rates with CTO assignment times are different between in summer and winter. In order to compare the compliance rates in summer and winter, Fig. 11 shows the compliance rates in summer and winter by applying the MRC speed when delay is assigned to 4 min. Although the maximum compliance rates both in summer and winter are ...
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... Accordingly, for airways 1 to 4, the flight times to the CTO fixes generally become shorter in winter than in summer because of the stronger tail wind in winter. Thus, as shown in Fig. 10, the FIR entry rates with CTO assignment times are different between in summer and winter. In order to compare the compliance rates in summer and winter, Fig. 11 shows the compliance rates in summer and winter by applying the MRC speed when delay is assigned to 4 min. Although the maximum compliance rates both in summer and winter are similar, the CTO assignment time when the compliance rate becomes maximum is longer in summer than in winter. It indicates that the CTO operations efficiency ...
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... Fig. 12 illustrates the compliance rates on different flight levels by applying the MRC speed when delay is assigned to 2, 4 or 6 min. Here, year-round simulation results are shown. Fig. 12 indicates that the compliance rate generally becomes higher at lower flight level. This is because the range of speed reduction becomes wider at the lower ...
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... Fig. 12 illustrates the compliance rates on different flight levels by applying the MRC speed when delay is assigned to 2, 4 or 6 min. Here, year-round simulation results are shown. Fig. 12 indicates that the compliance rate generally becomes higher at lower flight level. This is because the range of speed reduction becomes wider at the lower altitude in terms of aircraft performance. It clearly shows that 4 or 6 min delay can be achieved even by applying the MRC speed for the flights flying at lower flight level with ...
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... Fig. 13 shows the fuel savings for the CTO compliant flights when delay is assigned to 1 to 6 min. As described above, since it is possible to achieve delay of up to approximately 6 min with higher compliance rate, fuel savings are evaluated when delay is assigned to up to 6 min. Despite the flight time increase, potential fuel savings are ...
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... the fuel savings for the CTO compliant flights when delay is assigned to 1 to 6 min. As described above, since it is possible to achieve delay of up to approximately 6 min with higher compliance rate, fuel savings are evaluated when delay is assigned to up to 6 min. Despite the flight time increase, potential fuel savings are expected as shown in Fig. 13. As shown in Figs.8 and 9, more than half of flights can achieve up to 6 min delay by reducing airspeed to the MRC speed. Accordingly, the flights can save enough fuel by speed control despite the flight time increase, and 2-3% fuel savings can be expected on the average as shown in Fig. 13. In current ATM operations, airborne holding ...
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... potential fuel savings are expected as shown in Fig. 13. As shown in Figs.8 and 9, more than half of flights can achieve up to 6 min delay by reducing airspeed to the MRC speed. Accordingly, the flights can save enough fuel by speed control despite the flight time increase, and 2-3% fuel savings can be expected on the average as shown in Fig. 13. In current ATM operations, airborne holding or radar vectoring are commonly used instead of speed control for flight time management. In the case of imposing the same amount of delay, speed control can save fuel consumption, though holding requires an additional fuel by flying at VOLUME 8, 2020 nominal airspeed. It is clear that the ...
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... They find that most of the decrease came from a reduction in intra-EU traffic in response to the pricing of emissions. 8 Aircraft fuel consumption as a function of speed takes a parabolic form, as seen in Aktürk, Atamtürk and Gürel (2014) and Matsuno and Andreeva-Mori (2020), with consumption rising beyond the Maximum Range Cruise speed (MRC). See also Boeing (2017) as well as Moskwa (2008) for media coverage of aircraft speeds. ...
... Yoshinori et al. (Matsuno and Andreeva -Mori, 2020) published a comprehensive study of the attainable airborne delays via speed control. They demonstrated that a speed reduction can generate roughly 2-3 min of delay for every 30 min of flying time while conserving about 2-3 percent of fuel usage. ...
Extended Arrivals Manager (E-AMAN) is a concept that reduces congestion and holding time in the Terminal Maneuver Airspace (TMA) by managing the arrival aircraft during the en-route phase. However, current E-AMAN deployment is only limited to a horizon of 150–200 NM from the airport, restricting the window of opportunity for any early intervention, and the prediction of delay in TMA remains a challenge given the inherent uncertainties in the air traffic environment. In this context, this research work presents an approach for predicting, transferring and absorbing the flight delays and holdings from the highly constrained TMA to the en-route phase using both data-driven and optimisation techniques. First, a method is developed to estimate holding time and TMA delay from historical data. Next, a Machine Learning based prediction framework is developed to predict holdings and delays in the TMA, from an extended horizon of 300–500 NM from the airport. Finally, a heuristics-based optimisation model is developed for dynamic speed management to transfer TMA delays to the en-route phase. To demonstrate the model's efficacy, a case study for Singapore airspace is developed using associated one-day air-traffic data. Four sets of experiments are designed to evaluate the performance of the speed management framework under different flight cooperation levels. For the experiment with the highest number of cooperative flights, the implementation of dynamic speed shows a transfer of 179 min of TMA delay to the en-route phase, equivalent to 65% of the initial TMA delay. This results in an estimated fuel saving of 1524 kg along with a reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of 48000 kg. The findings demonstrate that E-AMAN, for extended horizon with predictive delay modelling and dynamic speed management, has the potential to manage TMA congestion and reduce fuel consumption and emissions, therefore mitigating the environmental impact.
... However, the above previous studies employed simple model for the CTO operation; for example, all the aircraft can make 2 minutes enroute delay. Matsuno and Andreeva-Mori developed a model-based approach to estimate the compliance rate of each flight [19]. They simulated the CTO flights based on Base of Aircraft Data provided by EUROCON-TROL and calculated the key achievable delay parameter used to estimate the compliance rate. ...
https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9839569
Excessive air traffic demand saturates air traffic control and causes traffic delays due to limited airspace and airport capacity. Air traffic flow management (ATFM) is used to regulate such demand using traffic management initiatives (TMIs), such as ground delay, miles-in-trail and speed adjustment. The Calculated Time Over (CTO), which is a time-assignment TMI for an in- flight aircraft, is being widely developed and CTO operational trials have also been conducted in Japan. This study develops means of estimating several important indices, including the compliance rate and mean expected delay, using data collected in the trial and shadow CTO operations. The estimation methods show variation in indices with differing maximum assigned CTO, while the analytical results suggest the optimal maximum assigned CTO. Furthermore, a variable maximum assigned CTO is proposed to improve the CTO operation. The analytical results show that the proposed method can improve the compliance rate as well as the mean expected delay.
... Most existing research focuses on achievable delays using speed control for a single aircraft. [7][8][9] In the authors' previous study, 17) the achievable delay acceptable for all flights flying on the same route and its compliance rate were statistically analyzed based on past actual flight data. The prior work focused on the international arrivals at Tokyo International Airport, because the metering time is to be assigned to international flights and combined with ground delays assigned to domestic flights for the initial implementations in Japan. ...
... We also investigate the potential benefit of saving fuel using speed control. Although only the delay by reducing speed was considered in our previous study 17) and existing research, [7][8][9] the negative delay, corresponding to early flyover, by increasing speed is also analyzed in this study because time-based metering operations are not limited to delays. Moreover, this study considers increasing the achievable delay and its compliance rate using flight-level change in addition to speed control. ...
... Then, a single Mach number value corresponding to v ECON is estimated using the linear least-squares method. In our previous work, 17) the accuracy of airspeed estimation was demonstrated by comparing the actual airspeed from an airborne flight recorder and the estimated airspeed. (See Matsuno and Andreeva-Mori 17) for a more detailed discussion.) ...
This paper analyzes the feasibility of time-based metering operations for domestic flights in Japan, which have shorter flight times than international flights. For metering air traffic, aircraft are required to adjust their fly-over times at specified fixes. Speed control is typically used to adjust the fly-over time without stretching the lateral path. This study applies flight-level change in addition to speed control to increase the achievable airborne delay. The achievable airborne delay using speed control and flight-level change is evaluated statistically based on past actual radar tracking data. Through illustrative numerical simulations for the domestic flights to Tokyo International Airport, the achievable delays can be more than doubled and higher compliance rates are expected when changing the flight level in addition to speed control. Moreover, the potential benefit of saving fuel using speed control is evaluated, and a fuel savings of 2–4% is expected on average. Based on the analysis in this study, the maximum potential achievable delays and feasibility of time-based metering for domestic flights in Japan can be evaluated.
... Finally, the role of in-flight delay absorption was also investigated, including improvements to flow management performance through long-range speed reductions for long haul flights [37], the use of in-flight linear holding through speed control [38] [39] or by adopting minimum fuel consumption speed in cruise [40]. Such techniques might however suffer from certain limitations due to e.g. the use of economical cost indices by airlines, or the occurrences of ATC interventions for other purposes. ...
This paper investigates the theoretical feasibility of controlling arrival airborne delays by acting on ground delays at departure airports, with the aim to reduce CO2 emissions. One challenge lies in the decision making to trigger ground delays few hours in advance under uncertainties in airborne delays prediction and during flight execution. We performed a sensitivity analysis, considering a control of the average airborne delay per 30 minutes period, varying the target from 10 down to 2 minutes, and measuring airborne delays, ground delays and runway throughput. We developed a simulation model of the arrival flow management process with a simplified regulation mechanism to trigger ground delays and realistic uncertainties on off-block, takeoff time and flight duration. We selected four European airports subject to significant airborne delays in 2019. We considered standard days and extracted results of the peak periods with airborne delays exceeding 10 minutes in the simulated "do nothing" scenario, for a total duration of 1,900 hours and with 60,000 flights. Simulation results show that airborne delays can be effectively controlled, until a 6 minutes or even a 4 minutes target, while the 2 minutes target is missed. With the 6 minutes target scenario, for the four airports (weighted average), the cumulated airborne delays decreases by 56% compared to the "today" scenario (from 7 to 3 hours) leading to a reduction of 19 tons of CO2 per peak hour, with no apparent detrimental effect on the runway throughput. However, with the uncertainties and exempted flights, the average total delay (airborne + ground) increases by 10% (from 8 to 9 hours), and the 90th percentile of the ground delay per flight from 13 to 29 minutes. These trends confirm the interest to extend these investigations, in particular regarding the impact on the network, departure airports and airspace user's operations.
... Thus, speed reductions up to 12% are feasible without additional fuel cost compared to the initially planned cruise speed [73]. When speed adjustments take place, time shifts up to 2-3 minutes per 30 minutes flight time are observed [74]. Aircraft speed could be set between optimal cruise speed and minimum fuel consumption, and speed control may affect the fuel consumption of the aircraft (maximum speed reduction during cruise phase is around the 7% [75]). ...
... This results from different infrastructural conditions (FIR structure) and the traffic load in the respective regions. A simulation of international arrival flights from westward (East Asia and Southeast Asia) to Tokyo Haneda indicates a possible time shift of up to 8 minutes during the cruise phase due to speed adjustments [74]. ...
We provide a concept of operations and a corresponding implementation of a long-range air traffic flow management in the Asia-Pacific region. This management will provide an appropriate demand-capacity balancing considering both aircraft sequencing by local arrival management procedures and flow optimization to prevent over-demand in the approach area around the airport. Thus, coordination of long-range international flights demands collaboration between different flight information regions and local regulations. As Singapore Changi Airport is a central element of the Asia-Pacific flow management high share of long-haul air traffic, we use this airport to demonstrate our approach. To derive the operational conditions and actual traffic patterns at the airport, ADS-B messages and flight plan information are processed. The data are cleaned, analyzed, and filtered to provide information about arrival flows within given distances to the airport. We provide an efficacy analysis of the long-range air traffic flow management using two approaches. First, we applied a mixed-integer optimization of time shifts of normal distributed flight times. Here, the regulation of long-range flights by time shifts (e.g., achieved by speed advisories) shows a significant relief from periods of over-demand at the airport approach sector. Second, we implement a reference and a test case scenario in an agent-based simulation environment including the local arrival management procedures. Here, the number of holdings and the associated holding time could be reduced by at least 26%.
(Updated version) This paper investigates the reduction of airborne delays by acting on departure times as one option to act rapidly on CO2 emissions. Following our previous work exploring the theoretical feasibility, we performed a trade-off analysis at European level driven by a cost function integrating airborne, ground and extra delay, with different weightings. We relied on a model of the today arrival flow management process with a simplified mechanism to trigger ground delays and with realistic uncertainties. We added a control of airborne delays with a ground delay capping of 30 minutes. We considered 30 European airports and selected fair weather days in 2019 for a total of more than 2 million flights. The control parameters were optimized according to a cost function for each airport and per day. The medium cost scenario leads to an average reduction per flight during peak periods of 2.5 minutes of airborne delays and 194 kg of CO2 emissions, with airborne and ground delays of 5.2 and 4.4 minutes inducing an extra delay of 0.8 minutes. For all the selected days, the cumulated reductions of airborne delays and CO2 emissions reach 13k hours and 61k tons respectively, corresponding to a reduction of 11%, with 15% of traffic concerned. No loss of runway pressure was observed. 50% of the gain may be obtained with 7 airports and 80% with 14 airports. These trends confirm the interest of developing the idea further. Future work should involve in particular the analysis of the impact on airlines operations, at departure airports and on the network.
