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This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The model accounts for cross-correlation and autocorrela-tion among the ASFR time series. The effects of certain measur...
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... BHM is a global model composed of 158 countries, which are classified into one of three possible cases: highfertility countries (Phase I), countries transitioning from high to low fertility (Phase II), and low-fertility countries (Phase III). Germany is classified as a Phase III country because its TFR has been below the replacement level of 2.1 children since the early 1970s, as illustrated in Figure 1 and Figure 2. The TFR for Germany is assumed to slowly recover and converge toward 2.1 in the long run and is modeled by an autoregressive model of order one [AR(1)]. ...
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... The model's unique advantage in the context of fertility data lies in its incorporation of both age and time components, enabling it to not only account for fertility variations by maternal age but also capture fertility transitions over time. Leveraging principal component analysis (PCA) and time series analysis as its underlying framework, the Lee-Carter model has been adopted to predict future age-specific fertility rates by [9]. Its application to Malaysian fertility data has been documented in the work of [10]. ...
Global fertility has been experiencing a significant decline, reaching towards the replacement ratio. This trend, coupled with increasing life expectancies, has led to the emergence of an ageing population. In this study, we delve into an analysis of fertility patterns among Malaysian women, considering both their childbearing age and ethnic groups. A comprehensive 63-year fertility dataset, from 1958 to 2020, were obtained from the Department of Statistics Malaysia. These data were fitted into the Lee-Carter model and its modified version, which is the functional data model. The models were evaluated using the out-sample forecast error measures. Results indicate that the third-order functional data model able to capture most of variation present in the actual data, consequently outperforming the Lee-Carter model in forecasting fertility rates among Chinese and Indian populations. The 20-year forecasts reveal a noteworthy shift in maternal ages of the highest births to older ages suggesting a trend towards delayed pregnancies among women. It is predicted that the Malay total fertility rates will likely fall to below the replacement level reaching 1.71 in 2040 whereas Chinese and Indian total fertility rates will substantially decrease to the lowest level in history below 1.0 which are 0.54 and 0.70 respectively. The evolution in Malaysian fertility rates is an alarming fact as, together with low mortality rates, it may impact the Malaysian population structure in future. Proactive policy measures are urgently needed to address these demographic shifts.
... Germany, with its larger population, distinct migration patterns and regional variations, experiences demographic shifts that differentiate it from the United Kingdom [33,36]. Moreover, Germany has experienced lowest-low fertility for four decades, contributing to a unique demographic structure that remains unmatched in Europe [37][38][39]. ...
... Additionally, we obtained annual birth numbers by babies' genders spanning from 1950 to 2022 [51]. Following the approach recommended by Vanella and Deschermeier [37], we computed age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) using the estimated average female populations within the corresponding age groups: f y,a = 2 B y,a P y−1,a−1,w + P y,a,w =: B y,a P y,a,w , ...
... In this paper, we provide a brief description of the demographic model. We conduct simulations with 1000 trajectories for each demographic component, including ASSSRs, ASFRs, and migrations, using principal component-based models outlined in previous studies [37,55]. ...
Streptococcus pneumonia is the primary cause of morbidity and mortality in infants and children globally. Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) incidence is affected by various risk factors such as age and comorbidities. Additionally, this bacterium is a major cause of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), leading to higher rates of hospitalization, especially among older adults. Vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has proven effective, but the demographic transition in Germany poses a challenge. This study introduces a novel stochastic approach by integrating a population forecast model into a transmission dynamic model to investigate the future burden of pneumococcal diseases in three age groups (0-4, 5-59, and 60 and older). Our simulations, presented through mean predictions and 75% prediction intervals, indicate that implementing PCV13 (13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine) until the year 2050 results in reduced cases of IPD and CAP in all age groups compared to scenarios without infant vaccination. However, cases with non-vaccine serotypes may persist at higher levels compared to scenarios without infant vaccination. Consequently, there may be a need for improvement in the current national vaccine policy, such as implementing the use of higher-valent PCVs and strengthening adult vaccination uptake.
... The planning of supply with educational infrastructures, for instance, requires regional fertility forecasts as a basis of decision making [15]. Germany has been a low-fertility country for half a century [1]. Enduring low fertility is considered problematic, e.g., from the perspective of labor market supply or the social insurance demand, among a variety of fields (see [14] for an overview). ...
... Enduring low fertility is considered problematic, e.g., from the perspective of labor market supply or the social insurance demand, among a variety of fields (see [14] for an overview). In the long term, low fertility is the main driver of the aging and depopulation of societies [1,16]. However, for a relatively large and heterogeneous country such as Germany [11], inequalities in fertility trends are prevalent as well. ...
... Fertility is a major component that shapes a society's long-term demographic development [1]. Demographics, in turn, have major implications for long-term planning in a variety of fields, such as the labor market [2], pensions [3], health insurance [4], long-term care [5], education [6], and housing [7]. ...
Regional fertility forecasts are important for long-term planning in a variety of fields that include future birth numbers in their forecast, such as school or kindergarten planning. They are one of the major components of regional population forecasts as well. Therefore, it is important to construct reliable forecasts that are based on sophisticated models that cover the high complexity of future regional fertility. We suggest a novel forecast model for forecasting regional age-specific fertility rates that covers long-term trends by time series models, demographic and regional correlations by principal component analysis, and future uncertainty by Monte Carlo simulation. The model is applied to all German NUTS-3 regions (districts/Kreise) simultaneously, where we forecast all regional age-specific fertility rates through the period of 2022-2045. The results from the simulations are presented via median predictions with 75% prediction intervals of the regional total fertility rates. The simulation shows strong regional heterogeneities in long-term fertility trends that are associated with the historical background of Germany, housing supply for families, opportunities for education, and the strength of labor markets, inter alia.
... Additionally, the enactment of the Federal Parental Leave Benefit Act (Bundeserziehungsgeldgesetz) in 1986 allowed for parental leave of up to 10 months following childbirth, which could be claimed by either parent. Owing to the incremental amendments made to this Act throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the duration of parental leave was extended to encompass up to 36 months (e.g., Gangl and Ziefle 2015;Vanella and Deschermeier 2019). ...
By analysing the childcaring experiences of female skilled workers from South Korea (hereafter, Korea) in Germany, this paper maintains that the challenges in labour market participation for highly skilled women, and especially those with children, should be understood in the context of their encounters with similar and different care and employment regimes between their home and host countries. On the theoretical level, this research confirms the argument that the migration of highly skilled workers should be contextualized not from a neoclassical perspective in which the maximization of economic profits takes priority, but from an institutional point of view in which social and cultural norms, practices, and policies in both the home and host societies are taken into consideration. Specifically, through a series of in-depth interviews conducted with skilled female migrants from Korea, this paper highlights the significance of taking the function of similar and different caring and employment regimes into account in explaining the challenges faced by highly skilled migrant women in labour market participation. On the empirical level, this paper sheds light on the migration experiences of skilled women from Asia as well as the (dis)integration processes of newcomers from third-national countries in Germany, with a focus on female migrants from Korea.
... Thus, our empirical strategy consisted of two major building blocks. First, we determined which of those eight competing models is most accurate by conducting a sequence of deterministic backtests (see, for instance, Vanella and Deschermeier, 2019). In doing so, we applied each model to each of the six available gender-age groups by taking data for the years 1995-2014 as a baseline, while assuming no knowledge of the migration trends after that period. ...
Substantiated knowledge of future demographic changes that is derived from sound statistical and mathematical methods is a crucial determinant of regional planning. Of the components of demographic developments, migration shapes regional demographics the most over the short term. However, despite its importance, existing approaches model future regional migration based on deterministic assumptions that do not sufficiently account for its highly probabilistic nature. In response to this shortcoming in the literature, our paper uses age- and gender-specific migration data for German NUTS-3 regions over the 1995–2019 period and compares the performance of a variety of forecasting models in backtests. Using the best-performing model specification and drawing on Monte Carlo simulations, we present a stochastic forecast of regional migration dynamics across German regions until 2040 and analyze their role in regional depopulation. The results provide evidence that well-known age-specific migration patterns across the urban rural continuum of regions, such as the education-induced migration of young adults, are very likely to persist, and to continue to shape future regional (de)population dynamics.
... Also, [13], study the determinants of labour force participation of urban married women in eight low-and middle-income economies to understand what drives changes and differences in participation rates. Also in this context but focusing on a specific country, [14], discuss the cultural change and female labour market participation in Germany, analyzing the effects of family policy on fertility. Europe is one of the continents where the demographic problem mentioned above is highlighted. ...
... The quantum component refers to the TFR that would have been observed in the absence of changes in the timing of childbearing during the period in which the TFR is measured whereas the tempo effects are distortions due to changes in the timing of birth. [14] used the Bongaarts-Feeney framework as the theoretical backbone of their PC-based age-specific fertility prediction model, which was then aggregated into TFR predictions. The authors even go a step further and also discuss incorporating fertility strategies into fertility projections in low-fertility countries. ...
The transition from a demographic regime of high mortality and high fertility to one with low mortality and low fertility is universal and comes along with the process of socio-economic modernization. The Spanish total fertility rate has decreased to below replacement levels in the last decades. The decline has persisted since the 1960s and is diverse across the country. Based on that diversity, the use of population forecasts, not only at national but at regional levels, for planning purposes (governments and private sector) with large horizons has become a must to provide essential services. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model we constructed probabilistic fertility forecasts for Spain at the regional level. Although this approach is already issued by the United Nations little research has been done focusing on the Spanish subnational level. Our objective is to disaggregate the national projections of the total fertility rate for Spain into regional forecasts. The results of this research will show the model fitting, first to the national level and then using a multifaceted and continuous evolution of fertility over time, at the regional level, to check its convergence.
... In Germany, which is the most populous country in the EU [4], aging is a topic of major concern given the country's low fertility [16] and decreasing mortality [17] for almost half a century. At the same time, since the mid-2000s, a trend toward increasing absenteeism can be observed, as the average number of days of absenteeism per case increases with age [18]. ...
... These are determined by the three major demographic components: fertility, migration, and mortality [7]. Of particular relevance for the development of the labor force are the fertility rates, which have a delayed effect on the labor force when the newborn enter working age [16], and migration, which affects the labor market relatively quickly as people tend to migrate when they are of working age. However, to what extent migrants also succeed in entering the German labor market, very much depends on the migrants' sociodemographic background [3,19]. ...
... Hence, in the first step of the analysis, we forecast the future birth numbers. For this, we multiplied forecasts of the age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs), as derived according to Vanella and Deschermeier [7,16], with simulations of the female population in the corresponding fertile age. In other words, in trajectory t, the births in year y B y,t are the scalar product of the vectors of the simulated ASFRs and the corresponding female population ...
Demographic change is leading to the aging of German society. As long as the baby boom cohorts are still of working age, the working population will also age-and decline as soon as this baby boom generation gradually reaches retirement age. At the same time, there has been a trend toward increasing absenteeism (times of inability to work) in companies since the zero years, with the number of days of absence increasing with age. We present a novel stochastic forecast approach that combines population forecasting with forecasts of labor force participation trends, considering epidemiological aspects. For this, we combine a stochastic Monte Carlo-based cohort-component forecast of the population with projections of labor force participation rates and morbidity rates. This article examines the purely demographic effect on the economic costs associated with such absenteeism due to the inability to work. Under expected future employment patterns and constant morbidity patterns, absenteeism is expected to be close to 5 percent by 2050 relative to 2020, associated with increasing economic costs of almost 3 percent. Our results illustrate how strongly the pronounced baby boom/baby bust phenomenon determines demographic development in Ger-many in the midterm.
... For decades, Germany's official statistics have shown a positive migration balance (see Section 3)-with only a few exceptions. Germany has been a low-fertility country since the early 1970s, defined as having a total fertility rate below replacement level [9]. This, in turn, is associated with a process of natural negative population growth and aging [5]. ...
Definition: Migration is defined as the permanent change in an individual's usual residence. Forecasting migration is an important requisite for population forecasts or for planning in fields that depend on the future size and structure of the population, such as economics, epidemiology, social insurance, or infrastructure. As migration is the most volatile of all demographic components, its modeling is especially difficult. International migration can be modeled and forecast very differently ; users should be familiar with the flaws and strengths of these different approaches.
... A general limitation of models using a fixed age schedule for the ASFR, as assumed by Lipps and Betz, is that they ignore the tempo effect in fertility, which describes the postponement of child-bearing into later points in life (e.g. Vanella and Deschermeier 2019). They assume that the mother's mean age at birth will converge to 31.45 years in the long run. ...
The future development of population size and structure is of importance since planning in many areas of politics and business is conducted based on expectations about the future makeup of the population. Countries with both decreasing mortality and low fertility rates, which is the case for most countries in Europe, urgently need adequate population forecasts to identify future problems regarding social security systems as one determinant of overall macroeconomic development. This contribution proposes a stochastic cohort-component model that uses simulation techniques based on stochastic models for fertility, migration and mortality to forecast the population by age and sex. We specifically focused on quantifying the uncertainty of future development as previous studies have tended to underestimate future risk.
The model is applied to forecast the population of Germany until 2045. The results provide detailed insight into the future population structure, disaggregated into both sexes and age groups. Moreover, the uncertainty in the forecast is quantified as prediction intervals for each subgroup.
... For decades, Germany's official statistics have shown a positive migration balance (see Section 3)-with only a few exceptions. Germany has been a low-fertility country since the early 1970s, defined as having a total fertility rate below replacement level [9]. This, in turn, is associated with a process of natural negative population growth and aging [5]. ...
Bevölkerungsprojektionen werden am stärksten durch die zugrunde liegenden Annahmen zur zukünftigen Migrationsentwicklung beeinflusst. Da sich diese am schwersten vorausberechnen lässt, stellt die Modellierung zukünftiger Migrationsbewegungen ein ebenso wichtiges wie anspruchsvolles Unterfangen dar. Unser Beitrag vergleicht in Form von Modellrechnungen unterschiedliche Modellansätze zur Projektion der Migration ausländischer Staatsbürger in Deutschland. Der Fokus auf die ausländische Bevölkerung wurde gewählt, weil diese deutlich größere Wanderungstendenzen als deutsche Staatsbürger aufweist. Mit einem deterministischen Simulationsmodell wird der Zusammenhang von Immigration, Emigration, Nettomigration und Emigrationsrate analysiert. Insbesondere wird die Rückkoppelung zwischen Emigration und Immigration untersucht, die eine wichtige Rolle für die Nettomigration spielt. Je höher die Immigration, desto höher ist bei gleichbleibender Emigrationsrate die absolute Emigrationszahl. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, wie sensitiv Bevökerungs- und Arbeitsmarktprojektionen auf Annahmen zur Migrationsentwicklung reagieren. Wenig adäquate Modellansätze können zu unrealistischen Projektionen von Bevölkerung und damit auch des Erwerbspersonenpotzenzials führen. Wir leiten daraus zwei Empfehlungen ab. Erstens sollten Bevölkerungsvorausschätzungen den Zusammenhang von Emigration und Immigration stärker berücksichtigen. Zweitens sollte die Migrationspolitik neben der Zuwanderung auch die Auswanderung stärker berücksichtigen als bisher.
