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Three examples of ROC curves. Two threshold levels, labeled A and B, are identified on one of the curves (see text for the definition of the chance line).

Three examples of ROC curves. Two threshold levels, labeled A and B, are identified on one of the curves (see text for the definition of the chance line).

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Figure 1. Signed dipole as a function of time for the four models...
Figure 3. Three examples of ROC curves. Two threshold levels, labeled A...
Figure 4. Excerpt of the 3D simulation showing the signed dipole as a...
Figure 5. Illustration of the prediction strategy. Top: dipole (solid...
+2 Figure 8. MCC skill scores (verification) of the four models for...
Can one use Earth's magnetic axial dipole field intensity to predict reversals?
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  • Dec 2020
We study predictions of reversals of Earth's axial magnetic dipole field that are based solely on the dipole's intensity. The prediction strategy is, roughly, that once the dipole intensity drops below a threshold, then the field will continue to decrease and a reversal (or a major excursion) will occur. We first present a rigorous definition of an...
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Context 1
... line that a varying threshold traces out in TPR − FPR space is called the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Three examples of ROC curves are illustrated in Figure 3. The figure also shows the chance line, defined by a straight line at a 45 • angle, on which the (FTR,TPR) points should lie when randomly guessing occurence of events, and varying the probability with which one makes this guess. ...
Context 2
... can use ROC curves as qualitative tools to assess different prediction strategies. We have included labels for the three ROC curves in Figure 3, that identify which strategies are good, worse or bad. We note that, besides an impressively large body of work across many disciplines, it remains difficult to unambiguously argue that a prediction strategy is good or bad, or if one prediction strategy is better than another. ...
Context 3
... note that, besides an impressively large body of work across many disciplines, it remains difficult to unambiguously argue that a prediction strategy is good or bad, or if one prediction strategy is better than another. As a simple example, consider the green ROC curve in Figure 3 with threshold levels labeled by A and B. It is not easy to say which threshold level one should choose. Threshold A leads to the smallest FPR while also achieving TPR = 1, but threshold B achieves a smaller FPR than threshold A, at the cost of a slightly smaller TPR. ...