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The zonal means of annual-mean temperature (K) and annual-mean zonal wind speed (m s −1 ): (a, c) Mk3L (average for years 201– 1200), temperature and zonal wind speed, respectively, and (b, d) Mk3L minus NCEP2, temperature and zonal wind speed, respectively.
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The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model is a coupled general circulation model, designed primarily for millennial-scale climate simulations and palaeoclimate research. Mk3L includes components which describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface, and combines computational efficiency with a stable and realistic control climatology. This paper...
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When the same weather or climate simulation is run on different High Performance Computing (HPC) platforms, model outputs may not be identical for a given initial condition. While the role of HPC platforms in delivering better climate projections is often discussed in literature, attention is mainly focused on scalability and performance rather tha...
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... The only exception to paleoclimate evidence that observational-era droughts are not unusual is Freund et al. (2017), who concluded that the cool-season precipitation deficit during the Millennium Drought in southeastern Australia was highly unusual in the context of the past 400 years. A possible explanation for this discrepancy is that our analyses only examined annual-mean precipitation, whereas observed eastern Australian rainfall declines of the past decades have been focused in the cool season (Pepler et al., 2021;Speer et al., 2021). Additionally, Freund et al.'s (2017) reconstruction also does not extend far enough back into the last millennium to intersect earlier dry intervals inferred from other reconstructions (Ho et al., 2015;Vance et al., 2015;Cook et al., 2016). ...
In drought-prone Australia, multi-year droughts have detrimental impacts on both the natural environment and human societies. For responsible water management, we need a thorough understanding of the full range of variability in multi-year droughts and how this might change in a warming world. But research into the long-term frequency, persistence, and severity of Australian droughts is limited. This is partly due to the length of the observational record, which is short relative to the timescales of hydroclimatic variability and hence may not capture the range of possible variability. Using simulations of Australian precipitation over the full past millennium (850–2000), we characterise the nature of multi-year meteorological droughts across Australia and include a particular focus on the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB), the largest agricultural region in Australia. We find that simulated Australian droughts in the 20th century (1900–2000) are within the bounds of pre-industrial natural variability in terms of drought intensity, severity, and frequency. A tendency for droughts to last longer in southwestern and eastern Australia (including the MDB) in the 20th century, compared with the pre-industrial period, suggests an emerging anthropogenic influence, consistent with projected rainfall changes in these regions. Large volcanic eruptions tend to promote drought-free intervals in the MDB. Model simulations of droughts over the last millennium suggest that future droughts across Australia could be much longer than what was experienced in the 20th century, even without any human influence. With the addition of anthropogenic climate change, which favours drought conditions across much of southern Australia due to reduced cool-season rainfall, it is likely that future droughts in Australia will exceed recent historical experience.
... The spatial resolution of all the environmental variables was 30 Arc seconds (~ 1 km 2 ). The CSIRO Mk3L climate system model was used based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) to understand the climate change impact on Agarwood in future scenarios (Phipps et al. 2011). Two of the four IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios extracted from WorldClim (Hijmans et al. 2005) were used for the present study. ...
Agarwood (Aquilaria malaccensis) is a critically endangered species on the IUCN red list globally. It is highly valued for its aromatic wood, popularly called agar, which has been overexploited in its natural range. The natural habitat of Agarwood is also drastically changing due to anthropogenic activities, and the tree is no longer in existence in the wild except in some intact forest patches. In the Indian East Himalayan region, Agarwood is planted in indigenous agroforestry and communal lands. Here, species distribution modelling (SDM) was used to establish Agarwood’s current and future habitat suitability under two representative climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). We implemented an ensemble of five SDM models, including two regression and three machine learning methods, using datasets from 82 locations. The results revealed that of the total area of 269,159 km2 of the Indian East Himalayan region, 2282 km2 is currently highly suitable. However, it is predicted to decrease by 34.28% under RCP4.5 and 14.64% under RCP8.5 by 2050, whereas 44.88% of the highly suitable area would reduce under RCP4.5 and 27.18% under RCP8.5 by 2070. Under the current climate scenario, the state of Assam has a substantial area potentially suitable for Agarwood, representing 99.21% of the state’s land area (2264 km2). However, there will be a tremendous loss of suitable habitats in future climate change scenarios. Our study highlights that precipitation of the driest quarter, precipitation of the warmest quarter and mean temperature of the driest quarter were the most influential bioclimatic variables. In addition, sand, clay content and organic carbon density were critical predictors of the distribution of Agarwood. This study has provided baseline data on the potentially suitable habitat of the species to guide the formulation and implementation of policies and practices for the conservation of Agarwood in the Indian East Himalayan region.
... Describing the true interactions and feedbacks between land surface processes such as forest vegetation functions (i.e., water yield) and climate systems requires a tight coupling among GCMs and vegetation dynamics (Gordon and Famiglietti, 2004;Phipps et al. 2011). Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) can simulate interactions between climate, forests, and hydrology under long-term climate change scenarios (Cramer et al. 2001;Gonzalez et al. 2010;Kim et al. 2017). ...
... Elevation data were accessed from the USGS website with a horizontal grid spacing of 30 Arc seconds (~ 1 km²). In addition, to understand the climate change impact on B. acutangula in future scenarios, the CSIRO Mk3L climate system model was used based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) (Phipps et al. 2011). We chose environmental data from Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 8.5) scenarios in the 2050s, which were then applied to simulate future conditions the model. ...
Barringtonia acutangula is a tree species adapted to floodplains. The species has traditionally been managed as a family and community forest in the Ganges- Brahmaputra- Meghna basin. Although much of the floodplain forest
has been removed and converted to agriculture, some forest does remain along most banks. Here, we examined current and future habitat suitability under climate change scenarios that could help to manage Barringtonia acutangula, a rheophytic
tree of socio-ecological importance. We model the habitat suitability class of B. acutangula under current and future climate (2050) scenarios based on 89 (57 from India and 32 from Bangladesh) locations and bio-climatic and elevation variables
using species distribution modelling (SDM) by MaxEnt. Out of the total area, i.e., 2,450,577 km2 , of the Indo-Bangladesh landscape, 199,063 km2 (8.12%) is highly suitable for the distribution of B. acutangula. Still, it is predicted to decrease by 50.57% (100,669 km2 ) by 2050 under the future climate change scenario. Country-wise habitat analysis revealed that out of the total area (139,799 km2) in Bangladesh, 95,541 km2
(68.34%) is highly suitable area for B. acutangula, but this is projected to decline under the climate change scenario by 34,801 km2 (36.43%) by 2050. While in India, the highly suitable area of B. acutangula is 103,522 km2 (4.48%) and is predicted to further decrease by 65,868 km2 (63.63%) by 2050. Our study highlights that precipitation seasonality, precipitation in the coldest quarter and precipitation in the driest period are the strongest predictors of the distribution of B. acutangula in the Indo-Bangladesh landscape. In the climate change scenario, changes in the precipitation pattern, particularly, can put B. acutangula under stress and lead to a high risk of population
shrinkage in the Indo-Bangladesh landscape. Therefore, urgent attention is needed for conserving B. acutangula, as it is sensitive and vulnerable to changing global climatic patterns.
... Several indices were then used to test model accuracy in reproducing the historic distribution for each species using the optimized Table 1 Marine and continental environmental predictor variables used in the calibration of the correlative species distribution models for shads and the observed data sources used for describing the past. Australia (Phipps et al., 2011(Phipps et al., , 2012 NorESM1-ME Norwegian Climate Center Norway Iversen et al., 2013) metaparameters (Table 5). For threshold-dependent indices, including sensitivity, specificity, and TSS, fitted values from the boosted regression trees (or the estimates of habitat suitability comprised between 0 and 1) had to be converted to presence/absence values for evaluation. ...
Diadromous species are particularly vulnerable to climate change because they utilize both marine and freshwater habitat to complete their life cycles. Dispersal plays an important role in restraining the distribution of plant and animal species, and is a key mechanism to allow diadromous species to adapt to changes in habitat suitability, but it is often not included in species distribution models that explore population trends under climate scenarios. The objective of this study was to develop a model to estimate potential shifts in diadromous populations in the Atlantic area of Europe under two climate change scenarios and multiple global climate models. To address the question of range-shift responses, a hybrid approach for diadromous species distribution (HyDiaD) was developed that incorporated two components: i) statistical static models of habitat suitability describing the influence of environmental factors on species occurrence, and ii) biological processes relevant for the distribution of the species, such as population demography and dispersal dynamics. Hybrid models were developed using a novel approach that incorporated both population and between-catchment dispersal dynamics specific to each species. Occupancy data for diadromous species in a subset of Atlantic Area catchments were first validated by regional experts, and boosted regression trees were applied to estimate habitat suitability within each catchment based on historical physical and climatic environmental predictors from the continental and marine domains. Habitat suitability was then used in a population dynamics model that incorporated between-catchment dispersal and local population growth. Results for different-sized catchments were compared using time series of spawner density and saturation rate, which estimated how much of the available habitat was being utilized. Many of the species-specific values used in HyDiaD were estimated through a survey of diadromous species experts, and group consensus was reached by calculating weighted averages. The HyDiaD model was applied to two shad species (Alosa alosa and A. fallax) to explore population trends projected annually from 1951 to 2100. Projected trends indicated that under XXIst century climate scenarios, habitat suitability is expected to increase for A. fallax, but decrease for A. alosa. Projected trends also indicated an increase in the rate of annual variability for A. alosa, particularly in the southern part of its range. Future studies can utilize the HyDiaD model to explore distribution trends for other diadromous species under climate change scenarios.
... The model simulations in this study were performed using the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark 3L (CSIRO Mk3L) coupled climate system model, version 1.2 (Phipps et al., 2011(Phipps et al., , 2012(Phipps et al., , 2013. CSIRO Mk3L is a fully coupled general circulation model that includes components describing the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface. ...
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of climate
variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, with major regional
climate impacts. Observations, reconstructions, and historical climate
simulations all show positive trends in the SAM since the 1960s; however,
earlier trends in palaeoclimate SAM reconstructions cannot be reconciled
with last millennium simulations. There are also large differences in the
magnitude of solar irradiance change between various solar reconstructions,
although most last millennium climate simulations have relied on a
low-amplitude solar-forcing scenario. Here we investigate the sensitivity of
the SAM to solar irradiance variations using simulations with a range of
constant solar-forcing values and last millennium transient simulations
with varying amplitude solar-forcing scenarios. We find the mean SAM state
can be significantly altered by solar irradiance changes and that transient
last millennium simulations using a high-amplitude solar scenario have an
improved and significant agreement with proxy-based SAM reconstructions. Our
findings suggest that the effects of solar forcing on high-latitude climate
may not be adequately incorporated in most last millennium simulations due
to solar irradiance changes that are too small and/or the absence of
interactive atmospheric chemistry in the global climate models used for
these palaeoclimate simulations.
... We assume stationarity and build a linear model between the growing season rainfall in the significant region and the DSS snow accumulation and then use this model to reconstruct the growing season rainfall in SWWA from 2015 CE back to 22 BCE. Following this, we compare the reconstruction with ensembles of simulations conducted using the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Mark 3L (CSIRO Mk3L) model (Phipps et al., 2011(Phipps et al., , 2012(Phipps et al., , 2013a. This allows us to explore the drivers of the changes in SWWA rainfall and place them in a longerterm context. ...
... The model simulations used for palaeoclimate data-model comparison are from the CSIRO Mk3L climate model. CSIRO Mk3L is a reduced-resolution coupled general circulation model, comprising components that describe the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice and land surface (Phipps et al., 2011(Phipps et al., , 2012. The model is explicitly designed for studying climate variability and change on millennial timescales. ...
... The atmospheric component of CSIRO Mk3L is taken from the CSIRO Mk3 climate model (Gordon et al., 2002), although with reduced horizontal resolution. Both CSIRO Mk3 and CSIRO Mk3L produce credible simulations of large-scale precipitation, including over Australia (Cai et al., 2003;Cai and Shi, 2005;England et al., 2006;Phipps et al., 2011). The model is also skilful at capturing the dominant modes of large-scale variability in the Southern Hemisphere -ENSO and SAM -including the teleconnections between these modes and precipitation over Australia (Cai et al., 2003;Phipps et al., 2011Phipps et al., , 2013aAbram et al., 2014;Barr et al., 2019). ...
South West Western Australia (SWWA) has experienced a prolonged reduction in rainfall in recent decades, with associated reductions in regional
water supply and residential and agricultural impacts. The cause of the reduction has been widely considered but remains unclear. The relatively
short length of the instrumental record limits long-term investigation. A previous proxy-based study used a statistically negative correlation
between SWWA rainfall and snowfall from the Dome Summit South (DSS) ice core drilling site, Law Dome, East Antarctica, and concluded that the anomaly
of recent decades is unprecedented over the ∼ 750-year period of the study (1250–2004 CE). Here, we extend the snow accumulation record to
cover the period from 22 BCE to 2015 CE and derive a rainfall reconstruction over this extended period. This extended record confirms that the recent
anomaly is unique in the period since 1250 CE and unusual over the full ∼ 2000-year period, with just two other earlier droughts of similar
duration and intensity. The reconstruction shows that SWWA rainfall started to decrease around 1971 CE. Ensembles of climate model simulations are
used to investigate the potential roles of natural variability and external climate drivers in explaining changes in SWWA rainfall. We find that
anthropogenic greenhouse gases are likely to have contributed towards the SWWA rainfall drying trend after 1971 CE. However, natural variability
may also have played a role in determining the timing and magnitude of the reduction in rainfall.
... We assess surface temperature and precipitation output from GCMs associated with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012), Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (PMIP3) Past1000 runs (Braconnot et al., 2012): BCC-CSM1-1 (Wu et al., 2010), NCAR-CCSM4 (Landrum et al., 2013), CSIRO Mk3L-1-2 (Phipps et al., 2011), FGOALS-GL (Zhou et al., 2008), GISS-E2-R (Schmidt et al., 2014), HadCM3 (Gordon et al., 2000), IPSL-CM5-ALR (Hourdin et al., 2013), MIROC-ESM (Watanabe et al., 2011), MPI-ESM-P (Giorgetta et al., 2013;Jungclaus et al., 2013), MRI-CGCM3 (Yukimoto et al., 2012) and NCAR-CESM Last Millennium Ensemble (all-forcing and volcanic-only experiments;Otto-Bliesner et al., 2016). Analysis using the multi-model mean incorporates the single simulation from each of the various PMIP3 Past1000 experiments and the first full forcing ensemble member from the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble. ...
... , NCAR-CCSM4 (Landrum et al., 2013), CSIRO Mk3L-1-2 (Phipps et al., 2011), FGOALS-GL (Zhou et al., 2008), GISS-E2-R (Schmidt et al., 2014), HadCM3 (Gordon et al., 2000), IPSL-CM5-ALR (Hourdin et al., 2013), MIROC-ESM (Watanabe et al., 2011), MPI-ESM-P (Giorgetta et al., 2013;Jungclaus et al., 2013), MRI-CGCM3 (Yukimoto et al., 2012); model output for each experiment can be found at https://esgf-node.llnl. gov/projects/esgf-llnl/. ...
Plain Language Summary
A typical El Niño event spans a single year, but on occasion, an El Niño event can span multiple, consecutive years. Here we investigate unusually persistent El Niño events in instrumental observations, 11 different climate models that simulate the climate of the last millennium, and in temperature sensitive paleoarchives from the central equatorial Pacific. Multi‐year El Niño events are found in observations, all models, and paleoarchives over the course of the last millennium, albeit with much diversity between the various simulations and observations. In an individual product or simulation, there are oftentimes centuries with many multi‐year El Niño events followed by centuries with few multi‐year events. Many of the largest El Niño events found in observations, climate model simulations, and paleoarchives feature this unusual persistence. Additionally, these multi‐year events can cause persistent impacts in global precipitation and surface temperatures.
... A total of nine GCMs participated in the G4 experiment, and four of them are available on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), including CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC-ESM, and MIROC-ESM-CHEM (Kravitz et al., 2013a). Note that CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2 is not selected because the clear-sky shortwave radiation flux at the surface is not 90 available in its outputs (Phipps et al., 2011). Simulations from the other three models are applied for analyses. ...
Stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) geoengineering is a rapid, effective, and promising means to counteract anthropogenic global warming, but the climate response to SAI, with great regional disparities, remains uncertain. In this study, we use Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project G4 experiment simulations from three models (HadGEM2-ES, MIROC-ESM, and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) that offset anthropogenic forcing under medium-low emissions (RCP4.5) by injecting a certain amount of SO2 into the stratosphere every year, to investigate the surface air temperature response to SAI geoengineering over China. It has been shown that the SAI leads to surface cooling over China over the last 40 years of injection simulation (2030–2069), which varies among models, regions and seasons. The spatial pattern of SAI-induced temperature changes over China is mainly due to net surface shortwave radiation changes. We find that changes in solar radiation modification strength, surface albedo, atmospheric water vapor and cloudiness affect surface shortwave radiation. In summer, the increased cloud cover in some regions reduces net surface shortwave radiation, causing strong surface cooling. In winter, both the strong cooling in all three models and the abnormal warming in MIROC-ESM are related to surface albedo changes. Our results suggest that cloud and land surface processes in models may dominate the spatial pattern of SAI-induced surface air temperature changes over China.
... We also compare this with results from seven other climate model simulations of RCP4.5: HadGEM2-ES(Collin et al., 2011), BNU-ESM(Ji et al., 2014), MIROC-ESM(Watanabe et al., 2011), IPSL-CM5A-LR(Dufresne et al., 2013), CSIRO-Mk3L-1-2(Phipps et al., 2011), NorESM1-M(Bentsen et al., 2013) and MPI-ESM-LR(Giorgetta et al., 2013). ...
The early 21st century retreat of Jakobshavn Isbræ into its overdeepened bedrock trough was accompanied by acceleration to unprecedented ice stream speeds. Such dramatic changes suggested the possibility of substantial mass loss over the rest of this century. Here we use a three-dimensional ice sheet model with parameterizations to represent the effects of ice mélange buttressing, crevasse-depth-based calving and submarine melting to adequately reproduce its recent evolution. We are the first study on Jakobshavn Isbræ that solves for three-dimensional ice flow coupled with representations of hydro-fracturing-induced calving and mélange buttressing. Additionally, the model can accurately replicate interannual variations in grounding line and terminus position, including seasonal fluctuations that emerged after arriving at the overdeepened basin and the disappearance of its floating ice shelf. Our simulated ice viscosity variability due to shear margin evolution is particularly important in reproducing the large observed interannual changes in terminus velocity. We use this model to project Jakobshavn's evolution over this century, forced by ocean temperatures from seven Earth system models and surface runoff derived from RACMO, all under the IPCC RCP4.5 climate scenario. In our simulations, Jakobshavn's grounding line continues to retreat ∼18.5 km by the end of this century, leading to a total mass loss of ∼2068 Gt (5.7 mm sea level rise equivalent). Despite the relative success of the model in simulating the recent behavior of the glacier, the model does not simulate winter calving events that have become relatively more important.
