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The location of the St. Patrick Bay (STPBIC), Murray (MIC), and Simmons (SIC) ice caps. The inset map shows Ellesmere Island (EL), Axel Heiberg Island (AHI), Greenland (GL), the Arctic Ocean (AO), and stations Alert (ALR) and Eureka (EUR). Use is made of 850 hPa temperature data from the Alert radiosonde record and precipitation records from Eureka.
Source publication
Two pairs of small stagnant ice bodies on the Hazen Plateau of northeastern
Ellesmere Island, the St. Patrick Bay ice caps and the Murray and Simmons
ice caps, are rapidly shrinking, and the remnants of the St. Patrick Bay ice
caps are likely to disappear entirely within the next 5 years. Vertical
aerial photographs of these Little Ice Age relics t...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... upland, with elevations rising from about 300 m above sea level (a.s.l.) near Lake Hazen to over 1000 m along the northeastern coast of the island. The plateau is unglaciated with the exception of two pairs of small stagnant ice caps -the unofficially named St. Patrick Bay ice caps and, 110 km to the southwest, the Murray and Simmons ice caps (Fig. 1). They are collectively referred to here as the Hazen Plateau ice caps. As of 2001, the larger St. Patrick Bay ice cap ranged in elevation between about 880 and 720 m a.s.l., with the smaller one spanning 820 to 700 m. The Murray and Simmons ice caps lie in higher terrain; in 2001, both fell between about 1100 and 1000 m a.s.l. The ...
Context 2
... summer warmth rather than win- ter accumulation (e.g., Bradley and England, 1978;Koerner, 2005). To place the behavior of the Hazen Plateau ice caps in a climate context, use is made of summer-averaged (June through August) 850 hPa temperature anomalies from the radiosonde record at Alert, located on the northeast- ern coast of Ellesmere Island (Fig. 1) along with estimated summer temperature anomalies for the LIA. The Alert ra- diosonde record extends back to 1957. We use monthly mean records contained in the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA; Durre et al., 2006), based on daily 00:00 and 12:00 UTC soundings. If it is also accepted that the ice caps were broadly in equi- ...
Context 3
... to erase any accumulated mass gains of a previous decade. Assessing variability and trends in Arctic precipitation is notoriously difficult but, as evaluated over the period 1950-2007, annual precipitation has generally increased across Canada and especially across Northern Canada. For example, at station Eureka in central Ellesmere Island (see Fig. 1), annual precipitation appears to have increased by at least 40 % ( Zhang et al., 2011). Trends over the plateau are not known, but this suggests that, if any- thing, precipitation changes are helping to buffer the ice caps from summer mass ...
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Using a variety of optical satellite scenes, this study quantifies the change in the areal extent of 1773 glaciers across Northern Ellesmere Island between ~1999 and ~2015. Our results show that the regional ice coverage decreased by 1705.3 km ² over the ~16-year period, a loss of ~5.9%. Ice shelves had the greatest losses relative to their size, o...
Citations
... In the future, there may be either more storms in these regions or storms may be more intense. The melting of ice caps in Canada might also contribute to the changes in pressure in these regions (Serreze et al. 2017 they intensify as they are propagating towards the European mainland. Greenland is one of the fastest-warming regions on Earth and its ice sheet is melting more rapidly in the higher global warming SSP3-7.0 scenario (Xie et al. 2022). ...
Extratropical cyclones are a dominant feature of the midlatitudes, and often occur as storm sequences. This phenomenon is known as cyclone clustering, which is common over regions like the eastern North Atlantic and western Europe. Here, intense clustered cyclones may lead to large cumulative socioeconomic impacts. There are several different approaches to quantify cyclone clustering, but a detailed evaluation on how clustering may change in a warmer climate is missing. We perform a cyclone clustering analysis for the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes using the ERA5 reanalysis to characterize clustering during 1980–2020. Moreover, we use large ensemble simulations of the Community Earth System Model version 2 following the SSP3-7.0 scenario to compare clustering during 2060–2100 to 1980–2020. Our model simulations show significant enhancement in cyclone clustering over Europe for 3 and 4 cyclones within 7 days in the future decades, which is increasing by up to 25% on average during 2060–2100 compared to 1980–2020. In contrast, cyclone clustering decreases along the west coast of the United States and Canada by up to 24.3% and by 10.1% in the Gulf of Alaska for the same periods. In a warmer climate, clustered cyclones have lower minimum pressure and larger radii and depths compared to nonclustered events. Our findings suggest that change in future cyclone clustering depends on regions affected by global warming, with implications for the cumulative windstorm risk.
Significance Statement
Storm sequences like the one of December 1999 (Anatol, Lothar, and Martin) have led to large socioeconomic impacts in Europe. It is still unclear how such events will change under global warming. We analyze storm sequences in a reanalysis and a large climate model ensemble for recent (1980–2020) and future climate conditions (2060–2100). Our results show a significant enhancement of storm sequences over Europe for 3 and 4 storms within 7 days, while a decrease is found along the west coast of the United States, western Canada, and in the Gulf of Alaska in future decades. Our findings suggest that the characteristics of cyclone clustering may change in a warmer world, and thus also the associated impacts.
... Evans (1989) describes glacial geological observations from land-terminating glaciers in Philips Inlet, NW Ellesmere Island, but made no direct glaciological observations. Braun et al. (2004a) and Serreze et al. (2017) have reported on mass losses from ice caps on the Hazen Plateau, to the south of the Northern Ellesmere Icefield, while White and Copland (2018) provided the first measurements of change for the entire Northern Ellesmere Icefield and adjacent ice shelves, Glacier (73.828 • W,82.677 • N) is located ∼50 km inland from the Arctic Ocean. Most of the glacier is currently located in the Thores Lake watershed (Fig. 2), which flows southeast towards Disraeli Glacier. ...
... The measurements at Thores Glacier indicate a glacier system which has been relatively stable over the past century, and which has changed little recently despite large losses reported on glaciers and ice caps to the south (Braun et al. 2004a;Serreze et al. 2017;White and Copland 2018), and ice shelves and a coastal glacier to the north (Copland and Mueller 2017;White and Copland 2018;Tsuji et al. 2022). This stability is consistent with the findings of White and Copland (2018), who reported no detectable change for Thores Glacier and most land-terminating glaciers in the Disraeli Fiord region to the south of the WHIS between ∼1999 and 2015. ...
Relatively little is known about the glaciers of northern Ellesmere Island, Canada. Here we describe the first field and remote sensing observations of Thores Glacier, located 50 km inland from the Arctic Ocean. The glacier is slow-moving, with maximum velocities of 26 m a⁻¹ and a maximum observed thickness of 360 ± 4.3 m. There has been little change in terminus position since at least 1959, with a maximum advance of 170 m at the northwest terminus ending on land and retreat up to 130 m at the southeast terminus ending in Thores Lake. There is little evidence for change since the Little Ice Age as bedrock weathering patterns suggest retreat of no more than 20–30 m around most of the glacier margin. The supraglacial drainage network is generally poorly developed, without moulins and with few crevasses, and therefore no evidence of water reaching the glacier bed. This is supported by one-dimensional modelling, which suggests current basal temperatures of −7.0 °C to −12.0 °C along the centerline. Thores Glacier currently dams Thores Lake, which causes drainage to flow to the southeast. However, if the glacier thins or retreats sufficiently, regional drainage will reverse and flow to the north, and Thores Lake would no longer exist.
... While absolute mass losses via surface melt and calving are greatest from the larger and more dynamic ice caps, the smaller ice masses are shrinking faster as they are more sensitive to changes in summer warmth (Braun et al. 2004;Noël et al. 2018). Documented examples of rapidly shrinking ice caps include the St. Patrick Bay ice caps on Hazen Plateau, North Ellesmere Island, which have experienced a 70%-95% area loss between 1960 and 2016, and the nearby Murray and Simmons having shrunk by 30%-50% since 1959 (Serreze et al. 2017). On Baffin Island, Papasodoro et al. (2015) report reductions in areal extent of the Terra Nivea and Grinnell ice caps on the Meta Incognita Peninsula by 20% and 34%, respectively, between 1952 and 2014. ...
Remote sensing (satellite and airborne) and in situ monitoring measurements indicate that the Meighen Ice Cap has thinned by 10 ± 3 m between 1960 and 2016, resulting in areal shrinkage by 32 km<sup>2</sup> (38%) and total mass loss of 0.71 ± 0.2 gigatonnes. Retreat of the ice margin along the North basin by up to 2.5 km accounted for 50% of the total area loss over the 56-year period of this study. A strong inverse relationship between atmospheric summer temperature anomalies, and in situ mass balance measurements (r = -0.74) indicates that accelerated rates of mass loss from the Meighen Ice Cap are largely driven by regional scale summer warming. Increases in summer temperature anomalies by 1.9 degrees Celsius from 1960–2004 to 2005–2016 coincided with a 5-fold increase in surface melt across the Meighen Ice Cap. Since the 1990s, the Equilibrium Line Altitude has been positioned above the summit of the Meighen Ice Cap resulting in loss of the accumulation zone that persisted for the first three decades of this study. Since the early 2000s, the ice cap summit has thinned by more than 4 metres, which is unprecedented in the period of record. Response time calculations based on 2006–2016 average mass balance data indicate that the Meighen Ice Cap, which has been in existence for ~3500 years, will completely disappear in ~175 years.
... Ellesmere Island, Nunavut, Canada (81-82°N, 70-72°W) is 7516 km 2 in area, 40.9% of which is covered by outlet glaciers of the Northern Ellesmere Icefield. The watershed is underlain by a diverse geology, dominated by the largely sedimentary bedrock of the Cambrian Grant Land formation (quartzite, sandstone) along the northwestern shore and the Silurian Danish River formation along the southeastern Hazen Plateau (300-1000 m.a.s.l.), which lacks major ice or water features 42,67 . In summer, glacial meltwaters form braided rivers that flow between 4.6 and 42 km into Lake Hazen along its northwestern shore (Fig. 1). ...
Glacial runoff is predicted to increase in many parts of the Arctic with climate change, yet little is known about the biogeochemical impacts of meltwaters on downstream freshwater ecosystems. Here we document the contemporary limnology of the rapidly changing glacierized watershed of the world's largest High Arctic lake (Lake Hazen), where warming since 2007 has increased delivery of glacial meltwaters to the lake by up to 10-times. Annually, glacial meltwaters accounted for 62-98% of dissolved nutrient inputs to the lake, depending on the chemical species and year. Lake Hazen was a strong sink for No 3 −-NO 2 − , NH 4 + and DOC, but a source of DIC to its outflow the Ruggles River. Most nutrients entering Lake Hazen were, however, particle-bound and directly transported well below the photic zone via dense turbidity currents, thus reinforcing ultraoligotrophy in the lake rather than overcoming it. For the first time, we apply the land-to-ocean aquatic continuum framework in a large glacierized Arctic watershed, and provide a detailed and holistic description of the physical, chemical and biological limnology of the rapidly changing Lake Hazen watershed. Our findings highlight the sensitivity of freshwater ecosystems to the changing cryosphere, with implications for future water quality and productivity at high latitudes.
Glaciers of Baffin Island and nearby islands of Arctic Canada have experienced rapid mass losses over recent decades. However, projections of loss rates into the 21st century have so far been limited by the availability of model calibration and validation data. In this study, we model the surface mass balance of the largest ice cap on Baffin Island, Penny Ice Cap, since 1959, using an enhanced temperature index model calibrated with in situ data from 2006–2014. Subsequently, we project changes to 2099 based on the RCP4.5 climate scenario. Since the mid-1990s, the surface mass balance over Penny Ice Cap has become increasingly negative, particularly after 2005. Using volume–area scaling to account for glacier retreat, peak net mass loss is projected to occur between ~2040 and 2080, and the ice cap is expected to lose 22% (377.4 Gt or 60 m w.e.) of its 2014 ice mass by 2099, contributing 1.0 mm to sea level rise. Our 2015–2099 projections are approximately nine times more sensitive to changes in temperature than precipitation, with an absolute cumulative difference of 566 Gt a –1 (90 m w.e.) between +2 and −2°C scenarios, and 63 Gt a –1 (10 m w.e.) between +20% and −20% precipitation scenarios.
Using historical and recent aerial photography and structure from motion (SfM) multiview stereo (MVS) techniques, we reconstruct the 1959 and 2018 ice surface topography and determine the geodetic mass balance of Bowman Glacier, a small mountain glacier on northern Ellesmere Island. This is combined with optical satellite imagery to reconstruct the evolution in extent of the glacier over six decades, and ground-penetrating radar measurements of ice thickness to estimate the remaining ice volume. Between 1959 and 2020, Bowman Glacier lost 78% of its extent (reducing from 2.75 to 0.61 km ² ), while average annual area loss rates have nearly tripled in the past two decades. Over the 1959–2018 period, glacier-wide ice-thickness change averaged −22.7 ± 4.7 m, corresponding to a mean specific annual mass balance of −347.0 ± 71.4 mm w.e. a ⁻¹ . Projecting rates of area and volume change into the future indicates that the glacier will likely entirely disappear between 2030 and 2060. This study demonstrates the potential of SfM-MVS processing to generate elevation products from 1950/60s historical aerial photographs, and to extend observations of ice elevation and glacier volume change for the Canadian Arctic, prior to the satellite record.
In this study, we use aerial photographs, satellite imagery and field observations to quantify changes in the area, terminus length, snowline elevation and surface elevation of eight glaciers in the Alexandra Fiord region, eastern Ellesmere Island, between 1959 and 2019. Comparisons to written and pictorial descriptions from the British Arctic Expedition extend the record of change in terminus position and surface elevation to 1875 for Twin Glacier. Glacier area at Alexandra Fiord decreased by a total of 15.77 ± 0.65 km ² (11.77 ± 0.49%) between 1959 and 2019, the mean end of summer snowline increased in elevation by 360 ± 84 m (8 ± 2 m a ⁻¹ ) between 1974 and 2019, and the glaciers thinned at an average rate of 0.60 ± 0.06 m a ⁻¹ between 2001 and 2018. Annual rates of terminus retreat were ~3–5 times higher over the period 1974–2019 compared to 1875–1974, and rates of thinning were ~2–3 times higher over 2001–18 compared to 1875–2001. Our results are consistent with rates of change determined for other glaciers of similar size on Ellesmere Island, and with accelerated rates of ice loss coincident with regional increases in air temperature of ~1.5°C since the early 1980s.
Cambridge Core - Climatology and Climate Change - Polar Environments and Global Change - by Roger G. Barry
Using a variety of optical satellite scenes, this study quantifies the change in the areal extent of 1773 glaciers across Northern Ellesmere Island between ~1999 and ~2015. Our results show that the regional ice coverage decreased by 1705.3 km ² over the ~16-year period, a loss of ~5.9%. Ice shelves had the greatest losses relative to their size, of ~42.4%. Glaciers feeding into ice shelves reduced in area by 4.7%, while tidewater glaciers reduced in area by 3.3%. Marine-terminating glaciers with floating ice tongues reduced in area by 4.9%, and 19 of these 27 ice tongues disintegrated, causing these glaciers to retreat to their grounding lines. Land-terminating glaciers lost 4.9% of their 1999 area, including the complete loss of three small ice caps (<1.5 km ² ). Our study highlights the high sensitivity of the ice cover of Northern Ellesmere Island to recent climate warming and the continued losses that are likely to occur in the future. In particular, the ice masses most susceptible to further losses are marine-terminating glaciers with floating termini and small land-terminating ice caps at low elevations.
