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The location of our study area (a), the topography of Xinjiang province (b) and the two-nested ALARO modeling domains and Central Asia (CA) regions (c). The shaded contour represents altitude.
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The land-use and land-cover change has a significant impact on the climate at different spatio-temporal scales. In this study, we explored the long term oasis expansion effects on regional summer precipitation in the north slope of Tianshan Mountains, China using high-resolution regional climate model. The results indicate that the oasis expansion...
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... located in the hinterland of CA, is the largest mountain range in the world arid area. It lies in the central part of Xinjiang province and is surrounded by two deserts, Gurbantunggut desert in the north and Taklimakan desert in the south, forming several typical MODSs, including the MODS in the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains (see Fig. 1a) which is the focus of our study area. With the rapid development of the economy and the increase of the population, the oasis area in the north slope of Tianshan Mountains has increased by > 4 times since the 1950s, resulting in a significant LULCC ( Zhang et al., 2017). The study area is situated between 84°50′E and 89°08′E and ...
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... With the rapid development of the economy and the increase of the population, the oasis area in the north slope of Tianshan Mountains has increased by > 4 times since the 1950s, resulting in a significant LULCC ( Zhang et al., 2017). The study area is situated between 84°50′E and 89°08′E and 46°15′N and 43°18′N, with a total area of 99,792 km 2 (Fig. 1a). This region is a typical continental arid and semi-arid climate, with a mean annual temperature around 6 °C and an annual precipitation amount around 220 mm. In the past 50 years, the climate in this region has experienced a warmer and wetter trend ( Hu et al., 2013;Li et al., 2011;Xu et al., 2010), which will continue in the future ...
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... amount around 220 mm. In the past 50 years, the climate in this region has experienced a warmer and wetter trend ( Hu et al., 2013;Li et al., 2011;Xu et al., 2010), which will continue in the future according to future climate projections ( Luo et al., 2018). Our study area contains 2 oases covering an area of 220 km × 75 km and 40 km × 25 km (Fig. ...
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... model is driven by the global reanalysis dataset ERA-Interim and run at a horizontal resolution of 50 km with 169 × 117 grid points within a domain that encompasses most of Asia (D1 in Fig. 1c). Then, the outputs were used to drive the ALARO-SURFEX model on a smaller domain nested within the outer domain (D1) at a horizontal resolution of 4 km with 500 × 500 grid points (D2 in Fig. 1b and c). (Fig. 1a and ...
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... dataset ERA-Interim and run at a horizontal resolution of 50 km with 169 × 117 grid points within a domain that encompasses most of Asia (D1 in Fig. 1c). Then, the outputs were used to drive the ALARO-SURFEX model on a smaller domain nested within the outer domain (D1) at a horizontal resolution of 4 km with 500 × 500 grid points (D2 in Fig. 1b and c). (Fig. 1a and ...
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... ERA-Interim and run at a horizontal resolution of 50 km with 169 × 117 grid points within a domain that encompasses most of Asia (D1 in Fig. 1c). Then, the outputs were used to drive the ALARO-SURFEX model on a smaller domain nested within the outer domain (D1) at a horizontal resolution of 4 km with 500 × 500 grid points (D2 in Fig. 1b and c). (Fig. 1a and ...
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... Masson et al., 2003), in which the global 1 km resolution land cover data is divided into 573 types (243 types for version I) based on satellite observations (Faroux et al., 2013). We updated the land cover data of ECOCLIMAP using the land cover data generated by the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography (XIEG), Chinese Academy of Sciences (Fig. 2) (Wang et al., 2014). Fig. 3a presents the oasis expansion effect on the averaged summer P. Cai, et al. Atmospheric Research 227 (2019) 140-146 precipitation during the period 1981-2016 computed from the difference CTL-NO_OASIS. Only grid point with a statistically significant change are shown in the plot. As seen from Fig. 3, the oasis expansion enhances ...
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... located in the hinterland of CA, is the largest mountain range in the world arid area. It lies in the central part of Xinjiang province and is surrounded by two deserts, Gurbantunggut desert in the north and Taklimakan desert in the south, forming several typical MODSs, including the MODS in the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains (see Fig. 1a) which is the focus of our study area. With the rapid development of the economy and the increase of the population, the oasis area in the north slope of Tianshan Mountains has increased by >4 times since the 1950s, resulting in a significant LULCC ( Zhang et al., 2017). The study area is situated between 84°50′E and 89°08′E and ...
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... With the rapid development of the economy and the increase of the population, the oasis area in the north slope of Tianshan Mountains has increased by >4 times since the 1950s, resulting in a significant LULCC ( Zhang et al., 2017). The study area is situated between 84°50′E and 89°08′E and 46°15′N and 43°18′N, with a total area of 99,792 km 2 (Fig. 1a). This region is a typical continental arid and semi-arid climate, with a mean annual temperature around 6 °C and an annual precipitation amount around 220 mm. In the past 50 years, the climate in this region has experienced a warmer and wetter trend ( Hu et al., 2013;Li et al., 2011;Xu et al., 2010), which will continue in the future ...
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... amount around 220 mm. In the past 50 years, the climate in this region has experienced a warmer and wetter trend ( Hu et al., 2013;Li et al., 2011;Xu et al., 2010), which will continue in the future according to future climate projections ( Luo et al., 2018). Our study area contains 2 oases covering an area of 220 km × 75 km and 40 km × 25 km (Fig. ...
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... model is driven by the global reanalysis dataset ERA-Interim and run at a horizontal resolution of 50 km with 169 × 117 grid points within a domain that encompasses most of Asia (D1 in Fig. 1c). Then, the outputs were used to drive the ALARO-SURFEX model on a smaller domain nested within the outer domain (D1) at a horizontal resolution of 4 km with 500 × 500 grid points (D2 in Fig. 1b and c (Fig. 1a and ...
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... dataset ERA-Interim and run at a horizontal resolution of 50 km with 169 × 117 grid points within a domain that encompasses most of Asia (D1 in Fig. 1c). Then, the outputs were used to drive the ALARO-SURFEX model on a smaller domain nested within the outer domain (D1) at a horizontal resolution of 4 km with 500 × 500 grid points (D2 in Fig. 1b and c (Fig. 1a and ...
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... ERA-Interim and run at a horizontal resolution of 50 km with 169 × 117 grid points within a domain that encompasses most of Asia (D1 in Fig. 1c). Then, the outputs were used to drive the ALARO-SURFEX model on a smaller domain nested within the outer domain (D1) at a horizontal resolution of 4 km with 500 × 500 grid points (D2 in Fig. 1b and c (Fig. 1a and ...
Citations
... The coupled land-atmosphere model is the most widely used method for studies on the mechanism and quantification of irrigation on precipitation currently (Cai et al., 2019;Zhang et al., 2019), which is superior to physical process descriptions. However, due to the strong dependence on physical parameterization schemes and the different combinations of convective schemes that have different deviations from the simulation results, the model is always evaluated against observational data. ...
... The Near-source moisture proportion in IA during summer is 45.03 %, while LMOIA in the NT Mountains accounts for 32.45 %. However, the substantial rise in evapotranspiration vapor resulting from oasis and irrigation has a limited influence on increasing precipitation within the oasis itself (Cai et al., 2019). The reason is that agricultural irrigation increases evapotranspiration, leading to an increase in moisture and cooling of the atmospheric boundary layer. ...
... In addition, precipitation in MA mainly occurs in the late afternoon and early evening, and rainfall brought by valley winds lags behind their appearance in time (Delayed effect) (Miao et al., 2021). Irrigation activities artificially change the surface water, causing the variation of precipitation in non-irrigation areas through moisture transport, resulting in remote effects of irrigation on the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation, which is consistent with the conclusions of Zhang et al. (2019) and Cai et al. (2019). ...
... Abundant water resources enhance the ecological stability of oases in the arid region of NWC (Xu and Lin, 2021) and provide favorable conditions for the development of irrigation agriculture [22]. However, large-scale agricultural irrigation can alter the regional water balance and water vapor circulation, impacting the region's extreme and seasonal precipitation [23][24][25]. Li et al. [26] and Zou et al. [27] have previously indicated that the South-to-North Water Diversion Project has changed the climatic environment in irrigated areas of northern China and affected adjacent regions through momentum, heat, and water vapor exchanges. In recent years, the influence of irrigation on the regional climate in the NWC has become increasingly apparent. ...
Understanding the impact of irrigation on the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation is important for the ecological stability of the arid region of Northwest China (NWC). In this study, the global climate model MPI-ESM-MR is utilized to provide the initial and lateral boundary conditions for the regional climate model RegCM4, enabling the simulation of the long-term climate of the arid NWC region under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The study focuses on analyzing the differences in the spatiotemporal distribution, intensity, and frequency of precipitation before and after irrigation. Furthermore, the study explores the primary factors influencing changes in the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of precipitation in the irrigation district and its downwind region. The results indicate that RegCM4 performs well in simulating the climatology and diurnal cycle of precipitation in the NWC, particularly excelling during the summer. Large-scale irrigation significantly impacts the structure of summer precipitation, leading to a notable increase in convective precipitation near the irrigation district and surrounding mountain ranges. Anomalous cyclonic circulation and enhanced vertical velocity enhancement provide dynamic conditions for increased precipitation in the irrigation district and surrounding mountainous regions. Furthermore, the evaporation of water vapor resulting from large-scale irrigation serves as an additional source of moisture, contributing to increased precipitation in the irrigation district and its downwind region. Due to the difference in climatic conditions between the western and eastern regions around the irrigated areas, the summer extreme precipitation in the west predominantly increases. At the same time, in the east, it predominantly decreases due to irrigation. The findings of this study contribute to a deeper understanding of the physical mechanisms through which agricultural irrigation influences precipitation in the arid region of the NWC, thereby providing scientific evidence for the sustainable utilization of water resources in the region.
... The results indicated that precipitation events exceeding 7 h exhibit major peaks that occur in the evening. Furthermore, Cai et al. [28] have begun to explore the long-term effects of oasis expansion on summer precipitation in the northern slope region of the Tianshan Mountains. Their study suggests that oasis expansion contributes to increased summer precipitation in the central Tianshan region. ...
... The findings described in previous publications indicate that there are significant differences in the diurnal variation characteristics of precipitation between mountainous and plain regions [21,28,55,56]. Consequently, we chose intervals of 500 m to calculate the diurnal variation characteristics of precipitation at different altitudes over the study area. ...
The diurnal variation characteristics of precipitation in summer (June–August) during the period of 2015–2019 over the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountains (NSTM) was analyzed using hourly simulated data from Nanjing University’s real-time forecasting system (WRF_NJU) with 4 km resolution, Automatic Weather Station (AWS) data, and the ERA5-Land data through using methods such as the Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function (REOF) and Coefficient of Variation (CV). The results show that the diurnal variation pattern of the precipitation over the NSTM simulated by WRF_NJU aligns closely with that of the observational AWS data, and it captured spatial distribution, peak values, and the times of precipitation reasonably well. The hourly precipitation amount (PA), precipitation frequency (PF), and precipitation intensity (PI) all show characteristics of being greater in the afternoon to nighttime than from early morning to noon, and the diurnal variations of precipitation in this region are significantly influenced by altitude. The PA, PF, and PI peak over the southern edge of the Junggar Basin (JB) below 1000 m occurred at around 2200 Local Solar Time (LST). In contrast, peak PA over the mountainous regions above 3000 m occurred at around 1500 LST. Further analysis with REOF and CV indicated that the difference in diurnal variations of precipitation between the mountainous regions and the JB is most pronounced likely due to the topographical influences. The peak PA over the mountainous regions mainly occurred at around 1500 LST, while that of the JB occurred at around 0100 LST. High CV regions for PI are predominantly found over the area near the central JB and the middle Tianshan mountains, whereas high CV regions for the PF are located in the central and northern parts of Urumqi and Changji. In addition, different land surface categories exhibit distinct patterns of diurnal precipitation variation, i.e., the forests, grasslands, and water bodies exhibit their peak PA in the period from early morning to noon, while the impervious surfaces, croplands, and barren lands exhibit their peak PA in the period from afternoon to nighttime.
... Although many studies have investigated the impact of LULCC on regional climate change [21,22], more research is needed about the specific effects in China and comparisons with other areas in the world [23]. Various models, including the InVEST model and ALARO model, have been utilized in numerous studies analyzing the influence of LULCC on regional climate and hydrological changes in China to examine parameters such as water yield and purification, soil retention, and land surface albedo [24][25][26][27]. While shedding light on the regional mechanisms through which LULCC affects precipitation and temperature, these studies have been limited to specific regions of China and have primarily focused on a single aspect of either precipitation or temperature. ...
In the 21st century, the effect of land use/land cover change (LULCC) on climate has become an area of active research. To explore the effects of LULCC on temperature and precipitation in China, we used outputs from the BCC-CSM2-MR, CESM2, IPSL-CM6A-LR, and UKESM1 models, which participated in the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Based on these models, we identified temporal variations in precipitation and near-surface air temperature (hereinafter temperature) with and without historical land use changes and their relation with LULCC in China during 1850–2014. We then determined the significant changing period (1972–2012) and revealed the relation between the spatial distribution of historical change in vegetation cover types, precipitation, and temperature. The results showed that annual historical precipitation decreased faster (132.23 mm/(1000 a) faster), while annual historical temperature increased slower (2.70 °C/(1000 a) slower) than that without LULCC during 1850–2014. LULCC not only influenced surface properties to change local precipitation and temperature distributions and mean values, but also affected other components through atmospheric circulations due to typical monsoon characteristics in China. The relative contribution of grassland change to precipitation variation was the largest, while relatively, cropland change contributed the most to temperature variation. Our study innovatively used new model outputs from LUMIP to analyze the impacts of LULCC on precipitation and temperature, which can help to guide and improve future land use management and predictions of precipitation and temperature.
... 70% of meteorological stations are located in the low mountain belt and piedmont plain (Hu et al., 2016), and there is a lack of stations above the middle and high mountains, so it is difficult to understand the precipitation distribution in this region in depth. At the same time, high-altitude mountains intercept a large amount of water vapor, making the Tianshan Mountains the source of most rivers in the arid northwest region (Cai et al., 2019). Therefore, obtaining the precipitation distribution with high spatial and temporal resolution in this region is not only a prerequisite for understanding the drought trend in the Tianshan Mountains , but also plays a crucial role in maintaining the water-climate balance and ecosystem in the arid area of Northwest China Yu et al., 2021). ...
Understanding the drought characteristics of mountainous areas in northwest China with sparse rainfall stations requires high precision, as well as high-resolution precipitation data. Considering the spatial relationship of precipitation and environmental factors, this study downscales Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) based on the geographically weighted regression (GWR) and multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) models integrated with interpolation. A high-resolution (1 km×1 km) precipitation dataset during 1979–2020 is reconstructed in the Tianshan Mountains, and the drought characteristics are analyzed by using the optimal dataset. The results show that: 1) Compared with GWR, MGWR model has higher downscaling accuracy; 2) The optimal MSWEP downscaling dataset (CC = 0.93, |BIAS| = 0.48%) compared to GPM (CC = 0.81, |BIAS| = 1.87%) is closer to the observed precipitation; 3) In the past 40 years, 71% and 9% of the Tianshan Mountains show significant wetting and drying trends respectively, and 16 drought events are identified. 4) The West subregion of the Tianshan Mountains is characterized by low frequency, long duration and high severity of drought events. The characteristics of the East are opposite to those of the West. Occasional extreme drought events occur in the North and South. This paper provides data support and method reference for the study of water-vapor balance and regional ecohydrological process in the arid area of Northwest China.
... The main cities in the study area are in the middle and lower reaches of the rivers, near the oasis lakes. Human activities have had a profound impact on the evolution of river runoff and low-elevation lakes in the region (Cai et al., 2019). ...
Changes in lake area (water surface area) are often considered accurate and sensitive representations of climate change. However, the role that elevation plays in this dynamic is somewhat unclear; studies remain inconclusive as to whether lake responses are consistent across elevation gradients. Here, we used Landsat and keyhole satellite images to quantify lake area changes from the 1960s to 2020 at different elevations in Central Asia's Tianshan Mountains and relate them to both climatic and anthropogenic factors. The results revealed that all low-elevation lakes showed a decreasing trend, and the total area of all monitored low-elevation lakes was reduced by 18.50 %. The total area of the mid-elevation lakes decreased by 0.16 %, while the total area of the high-elevation glacial lakes increased by 4.35 %. Lakes are recharged by a variety of influxes including glacial meltwater and precipitation. Notably, human activities (urban and agricultural water consumption) were the dominant factors in the shrinkage of low-elevation lakes. Climatic factors were the main driving factors of mid-elevation lake changes, and these lakes appeared to be more sensitive to temperature changes than lakes at other elevations. In addition, significant warming dominated area changes in high-elevation proglacial and unconnected glacial lakes. Overall, those results emphasized that when using lakes to reconstruct paleoclimates or predict lake evolution, it is necessary to consider how elevation gradients and recharge types may affect lake sensitivity to variations in climatic and anthropogenic activity.
... A significant wetting trend has been widely evidenced in the study region and northwestern China (Yao et al., 2020). Considering the expansion of artificial oases and improvements in irrigation systems in recent decades (Cai et al., 2019), enhanced transpiration and surface evaporation may play an important role in the regional precipitation increase. In addition, xerophyte growth is highly sensitive to precipitation in a water-scarce environment, therefore even a small increase in precipitation, may greatly affect the local vegetation (Xu and Lin, 2021). ...
Locally recycled moisture from transpiration and surface evaporation is of great importance in the terrestrial hydrological cycle, especially in the widely distributed oases across arid central Asia. Quantitative assessment of the proportional contribution of recycled moisture to local precipitation, i.e., the recycling ratio, is useful to understand the land-air interaction as well as the anthropogenic impact on the regional water cycle. Here we analyzed the stable hydrogen and oxygen isotopes in precipitation samples collected at six stations across the Kaxgar-Yarkant Oasis in the western Tarim Basin of central Asia from April 2018 to June 2020. Using this data, the moisture recycling ratio in this typical oasis was assessed using a Bayesian three-component isotopic mixing model. For the plain stations, the annual weighted mean δ¹⁸O value in precipitation ranged from −5.94‰ to –1.46‰, and the mountain station has a lower annual mean precipitation isotopic ratio. The average recycling ratio during the summer months ranged between 17.0% and 63.9% for each sampling station in the Kaxgar-Yarkant Oasis, and the proportional contribution from transpiration ranged from 15.1% to 61.3%. The contribution of plant transpiration to local precipitation is much larger than that of surface evaporation. The recycled portion in total precipitation amount may increase the local precipitation under an oasis expansion background but is insufficient to change the arid background. In addition, the Bayesian isotopic mixing model is promising to determine the recycling ratio in an arid setting, and provides more spatial details than the climate reanalysis-based calculation.
... Global warming accelerates the hydrological cycle [12,13]. By changing the redistribution of water energy in the atmosphere, precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains not only has an important impact on climate change in the glacier region but also affects the natural ecological environment and social and economic activities [14][15][16][17]. The terrain of this area is complex, and the altitude difference is large, which results in the high heterogeneity of precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains with elevation [17,18], from low mountain deserts of <100 mm/year to windward slope high mountains of >900 mm/year. ...
... In conclusion, the deviation between the three products and the measured precipitation is small in the low and middle longitude areas, and the correlation between the three products and the measured precipitation is strong in the middle-altitude areas. This may be because the high longitude and altitude areas in the study area have been iceberg areas for many years [18,54], and most solid precipitation exists, indicating that TRMM, GPM, and MSEWP are similar to most satellite precipitation inversion products, their estimation ability of solid precipitation is still insufficient [14]. However, compared with the three, GPM, as an up-graded product of TRMM, has a better ability to estimate the annual precipitation in low-and middle-altitude areas (Figure 12j,l). ...
In the arid areas of Northwest China, especially in the Tianshan Mountains, the scarcity of meteorological stations has brought some challenges in collecting accurate information to describe the spatial distribution of precipitation. In this study, the applicability of TRMM3B42, GPM IMERG, and MSWEP V2.2 in different regions of Tianshan Mountain is comprehensively evaluated by using ten statistical indicators, three classification indicators, and variation coefficients at different time–space scales, and the mechanism of accuracy difference of precipitation products is discussed. The results show that: (1) On the annual and monthly scales, the correlation between GPM and measured precipitation is the highest, and the ability of three precipitation products to capture precipitation in the wet season is stronger than that in the dry season; (2) On the daily scale, TRMM has the highest ability to estimate the frequency of light rain events, and MSWEP has the highest ability to monitor extreme precipitation events; (3) On the spatial scale, GPM has the highest fitting degree with the spatial distribution of precipitation in Tianshan Mountains, MSWEP is the closest to the precipitation differentiation pattern in Tianshan Mountains; (4) The three satellite products generally perform best in low and middle longitude regions and middle elevation regions. This study provides a reference for the selection of grid precipitation datasets for hydrometeorological simulation in northwest arid areas and also provides a basis for multi-source data assimilation and fusion.
... For example, large proportions of crop area were converted from grassland or sparse vegetation around the TS [83], which may increase the greenness and advance the SOS. Meanwhile, previous studies reported that the expansion of irrigated areas could affect the mountainous climate by increasing precipitation and reducing the temperature, and then modifying the regional snow status [84,85]. Similarly, the glacier areas are significantly shrinking due to climate warming, which increased glacier/snow melt water and benefited vegetation greening [71]. ...
The accumulation and ablation processes of seasonal snow significantly affect the land surface phenology in a mountainous ecosystem. However, the ability of snow to regulate the alpine land surface phenology in the arid regions is not well described in the context of climate change. The impact of snowpack changes on land surface phenology and its driving factors were investigated in the Tianshan Mountains using the land surface phenology metrics derived from satellited products and a snow dataset from downscaled regional climate model simulations covering the period from 1983 to 2015. The results demonstrated that the annual mean start of growing season (SOS) and length of growing season (LOS) experienced a significant (p < 0.05) decrease and increase with a rate of −2.45 days/decade and 2.98 days/decade, respectively. The significantly advanced SOS and increased LOS were mainly seen in the Western Tianshan Mountains and Ili Valley regions with elevations from 2500 to 3500 m a.s.l and below 3000 m a.s.l, respectively. During the early spring, the significant decline in snow cover fraction (SCF) could advance the SOS. In contrast, snowmelt amount and annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) have an almost equally substantial positive correlation with annual maximum vegetation greenness. In particular, the SOS of grassland was the most sensitive to variations of snow cover fraction during early spring than that of other vegetation types, and their strong relationship was mainly located at elevations from 1500 to 2500 m a.s.l. Its greenness was significantly controlled by the annual maximum snow water equivalent in all elevation bands. Both decreased SCF and increased temperature in the early spring caused a significant advance of the SOS, consequently prolonging the LOS. Meanwhile, more SWE and snowmelt amount could significantly promote vegetation greenness by regulating the soil moisture. The results can improve the understanding of the snow ecosystem services in the alpine regions under climate change.
... It provides opportunity for the survival of individuals and is an important center of economic activity in the arid zone. Consequently, its rise and fall are directly related to the evolution and development of the entire arid zone [1,2]. Water resources are essential for the development of oases under arid climatic conditions and, thus, they determine the survival of oases [3]. ...
... Meanwhile, the imbalance in the configuration of water and soil in oases has made the disparity between water supply and demand increasingly more intense. This has had a direct impact on the livelihood of the population, economic development, and ecological security [2,7]. ...
The withdrawal of cultivated land policy is not only an important task to promote cultivated land rest and alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in arid areas, but also an important way to realize the sustainable development of agriculture and social economy. This study adopted the minimum per capita area method, ESPR (Exposure-Sensitivity-Pressure-Response) vulnerability assessment model, grey prediction model, and GIS spatial analysis. Furthermore, based on the characteristics of water resource constraints in the arid zone, Manas County was used as the study area. By exploring and analyzing the area of land retreat, through identifying its occurrence and position, the spatial zoning layout of land retreat can be realized to guarantee the effective implementation of water retreat and reduction. The following points were noted from the results: (1) the upper and lower limits of the area of receding land in Manas County were measured using the minimum per capita area method and the principle of balancing water supply and demand. The receding land in Manas County measured 16,493.68–20,749.90 hm2, which accounted for 24.31–30.58% of the total area of cultivated land. (2) The results obtained from constructing the ESPR vulnerability assessment model, used to assess the vulnerability of cultivated land in Manas County, showed that the overall vulnerability of cultivated land in Manas County was high, with 94.74% of the county’s cultivated land being moderately vulnerable or worse, which necessitates the optimization of land use. (3) The area of cultivated land withdrawal under the water resource constraint was used as a constraint for the withdrawal of cultivated land. Based on the evaluation of the vulnerability of cultivated land, with the results arranged from small to large, it was concluded that the area of cultivated land withdrawal in Manas County could reach up to 16,787.34 hm2. There are four types of cultivated land withdrawals: desertified withdrawal, saline withdrawal, groundwater overexploitation withdrawal, and soil contamination withdrawal. The results of this study can provide a reference for Manas County to scientifically formulate a reasonable and orderly withdrawal system of farmland to reduce water use.
