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The figure shows the standardised regression coefficient of population trend on each variable, with 90% confidence intervals, derived from model averaging of multiple regression models which also take into account the effects of body mass, habitat and migratory behaviour (Table S9). Positive coefficients indicate a positive relation between population trend and CLIM or CST; coefficients with confidence intervals that do not overlap zero are statistically significant.
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Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use data on long-term population trends of European birds to develop such an indicator. We find a signifi...
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Understanding species richness patterns represents one of the most fundamental problems in ecology. Most research in this area has focused on spatial gradients of species richness, with a smaller area of emphasis dedicated to understanding the temporal dynamics of richness. However, few attempts have been made to understand the linkages between the...
Citations
... Habitat quality loss may be responsible for the observed decline of forest , Gregory et al. 2007, Quine et al. 2007) and farmland songbirds (Chamberlain et al. 2000, Voříšek et al. 2010). In addition, climate change may pose a threat to some bird species (Julliard et al. 2004b, Jiguet et al. 2007, Gregory et al. 2009). ...
... (Gregory et al. 2009;Chen et al. 2011). In that context, many studies focused on cavity-nesting birds. ...
Climate change significantly impacts avian morphological and reproductive phenologies, particularly influencing the distribution of endemic species with restricted ranges. This study explores the potential distributional shifts of the Levaillant’s Woodpecker, endemic to North Africa, in response to climate change. We employed ecological niche modeling to assess its range dynamics during historical periods (Last Interglacial, Last Glacial Maximum, and mid-Holocene), the present, and projected future scenarios (2050 and 2070). The analysis incorporated 68 occurrence records of the species and 15 bioclimatic variables. Our findings indicate a current equilibrium between the woodpecker and its climatic environment. Historically, the species experienced a marked range contraction during the Last Interglacial, followed by a significant expansion in the Last Glacial Maximum. The mid-Holocene distribution closely resembled the present range. Future projections, however, suggest a decline in Levaillant’s Woodpecker populations, with a shift towards higher altitude forests as a response to global warming impacts on their existing habitats. This study highlights the critical need for awareness about global warming and its potential threats to biodiversity, particularly forest avifauna.
... The choice of birds for studying climatic changes offer certain advantages such as they are the most well-known kind of organism for climate studies and second, millions of citizen scientists track birds all over the world, contributing to massive datasets [31]. Bird distribution changes have been well described and linked to climate change [32][33][34]. The vulnerability of species of tropical birds to climate change in particular has been increasingly recognized [35][36][37]. ...
... Some reintroduction practitioners may also be deterred by the well-known limitations of SDMs, such as the potential for disequilibrium between geographic range and niche (Galante et al., 2018) and the inherent uncertainties of future climate projections (Kujala et al., 2013). Nonetheless, when validated on previous translocation attempts (in both experimental and practical conservation settings), outputs from SDMs have correlated well with benchmarks of successful establishment (Bellis et al., 2020;Lee-Yaw et al., 2016), or with recent climate change-induced changes in abundance and distribution (Gregory et al., 2009;Stephens et al., 2016). ...
Aim
The dynamic nature of climate change diminishes the effectiveness of static approaches to nature conservation. Areas that were once suitable for species may no longer be suitable, and areas that are suitable now, may be unsuitable in the future. Despite increasing global awareness of the threats posed by climate change, it remains poorly accounted for in conservation programmes, such as translocation. In this study, we project changes in climate suitability for populations of ectothermic species that have been successfully established through translocation efforts.
Location
Biogeographical realms: Australasia, Holarctic, Palearctic and Nearctic.
Methods
We use species distribution models (SDMs) to project changes in macroclimatic suitability across 65 translocation recipient sites involving 38 ectothermic species. We consider optimistic (SSP126) and pessimistic (SSP370) scenarios of climate change for five general circulation models spanning three time horizons from 2021–2040 up to 2061–2080.
Results
Our models predict that at least 74% of recipient sites are projected to decline in climate suitability, regardless of the SSP scenario or time horizon. While recipient site suitability, scaled from 0 to 1 (low–high), was typically very high (>0.75, 39% of sites) under baseline climate conditions (1960–2010), models project a marked shift towards low suitability climates (<0.25, 40% of sites) by the middle of the century (2041–2060) onwards under the more pessimistic scenario. Relative to species' ranges, recipient sites located closer to the equator are projected to experience the most significant declines in suitability.
Main Conclusions
Our results call for greater consideration of spatiotemporal factors during the recipient site selection process, so that translocated populations are more strategically placed for long‐term persistence under climate change.
... The effects of global change have been evaluated at different spatial scales and extents, from global (Jetz et al., 2007), through continental (Gregory et al., 2009;Princé & Zuckerberg, 2015), country-level (Reino et al., 2018), regional (Clavero et al., 2011) and down to the local scale (Wilbanks & Kates, 1999). Evaluation at the regional scale allows to identify in greater detail changes in the landscape and movements along altitudinal gradients of species (Palacio et al., 2020). ...
... In this study, we assess the temporal turnover in avian species richness in a semiarid Mediterranean region at a regional scale (11,317 km 2 ) between a historical period (1991)(1992) and a modern one (2012 and 2017) as a consequence of global change. We used bird community surveys for this purpose, since bird species play a vital role in key ecological processes, including seed dispersal, pollination, pest control, nutrient cycling and soil formation (Cannon et al., 2019) and have been used as bioindicators in multiple scenarios of global change (Gregory et al., 2009). Specifically, our aims are: (1) to analyse the relationships between changes in the bird species richness and key environmental variables (elevation and forest cover) along a comparison time span of 21-25 years; and ...
Aim
When studying the effects of global change on biodiversity, it is far more common for the effects of climate change and land‐use changes to be assessed separately rather than jointly. However, the effects of land‐use changes in recent decades on species richness in areas affected by climate change have been less studied. We assess the temporal turnover in species richness of an avian community between a historical period and a modern one as a consequence of global change.
Location
Semiarid Mediterranean ecosystem (southeastern Spain).
Method
We fitted a hierarchical multispecies occupancy model for each period (1991–1992, and 2012–2017), obtaining avian species‐specific estimates of occupancy probability in relation to environmental covariates (elevation and forest cover). We analyse the relationships between changes in the bird community and environmental variables, analysing the temporal turnover of the species richness and the richness‐based species‐exchange ratio.
Results
The estimated species richness accounting for detectability was higher than observed species richness, and decreased in the more recent period. Following our hypotheses, we observed a dual pattern of species richness increase associated with different elevations, showing different species turnover rates due to the joint effects of climate change and land‐use change. There is a trend towards greater species richness with higher elevations that is associated with climate change, where the species turnover rate is low. Also, species richness increased towards lower elevations, but with a high turnover rate. The latter can be due to species expansions throughout new habitat configurations in bordering forest systems associated with anthropic land‐use changes.
Conclusions
Our study is of great interest to understand the temporal turnover of avian species richness associated with areas experiencing both climate and land‐use change.
... Therefore, environmental conditions will affect the distribution areas of crop pathogens and/or cause pathogen populations to adapt. [5][6][7][8][9][10] Thus, it may result in a change in organisms' behavior with different biological characteristics that may eventually lead to more damaging epidemic dynamics in crops with a lack of efficacy of BCAs. A general trend of increasing average temperatures is predicted, with direct effects of abiotic factors on pests or BCA efficiency. ...
BACKGROUND
Evolving climatic conditions impact the behavior of microorganisms. The lack of efficiency of beneficial microorganisms against pathogens can be due to these evolving abiotic factors more favorable to the development and adaptation of pathogens. It is therefore of great interest to understand their impact (especially temperature increase and relative humidity (RH) variation) on pathogenic and non‐pathogenic microorganisms. This work aimed to examine the possible effects of increasing temperature (20, 25, 30 and 33 °C) and RH (40%, 50%, 60% and 80%) on the growth and mycotoxin production (deoxynivalenol (DON) and zearalenone (ZEN)) of Fusarium graminearum, on the growth of three commercial biocontrol agents (BCAs; Mycostop®, Xedavir® and Polyversum®) and on the pathogen–BCA interaction.
RESULTS
Results demonstrated that BCAs have contrasting impacts on the growth and mycotoxinogenesis of F. graminearum depending on abiotic factors. At 25 °C and regardless of RH, commercial BCAs limit DON production by F. graminearum, but at 30 °C and intermediate RH, Xedavir® is no longer effective. The ability of Xedavir® to control the production of ZEN production by F. graminearum is also affected by abiotic factors. However, increasing temperature has an opposite effect on its ability to control the accumulation of ZEN. Polyversum® oomycete is the BCA with the most resilient efficacy against F. graminearum toxinogenesis under the different abiotic factors.
CONCLUSION
This work provides new knowledge of the effect of these abiotic parameters on the interaction between BCA and F. graminearum, especially on the production of mycotoxins. It paves the way for the development of efficient and resilient mycotoxin biocontrol strategies using beneficial microorganisms against F. graminearum, thus contributing to global food security. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.
... In previous studies, biodiversity indicators highlight the importance of habitat preference in explaining population trends under secondary succession, showing more positive trends for forest species than for nonforest species Reif et al., 2008;Sirami et al., 2008). Other studies show the importance of species' temperature niches, with warm-adapted species increasing in abundance and coldadapted species declining (Gregory et al., 2009;Stephens et al., 2016). However, there is a lack of comprehensive large-scale analyses examining the combined impacts of secondary succession and climate warming on biodiversity trends (but see Herrando et al., 2014). ...
Quantifying biodiversity trends in economically developed countries, where depopulation, associated secondary succession, and climate warming are ongoing, provides insights for global biodiversity conservation in the 21st century. However, few studies have assessed the impacts of secondary succession and climate warming on species’ population trends at a national scale. We estimated the population trends of common breeding bird species in Japan and examined the associations between the overall population trend and species traits with the nationwide bird count data on 47 species collected from 2009 to 2020. The overall population trend varied among species. Four species populations increased moderately, 18 were stable, and 11 declined moderately. Population trends for 13 species were uncertain. The difference in overall trends among the species was associated with their habitat group and temperature niche. Species with relatively low‐temperature niches experienced more pronounced declines. Multispecies indicators showed a moderate increase in forest specialists and moderate declines in forest generalists (species that use both forests and open habitats) and open‐habitat specialists. Forest generalists and open‐habitat specialists also declined more rapidly at sites with more abandoned farmland. All species groups showed an accelerated decline or decelerated increase after 2015. These results suggest that common breeding birds in Japan are facing deteriorating trends as a result of nationwide changes in land use and climate. Future land‐use planning and policies should consider the benefits of passive rewilding for forest specialists and active restoration measures (e.g., low‐intensive forestry and agriculture) for nonforest specialists to effectively conserve biodiversity in the era of human depopulation and climate warming.
... The complex life cycle of migrant birds, with long migration routes and a dependence on resources at different sites at different times of the year, puts them at greater risk than resident or short-distance migrant species, and we predict their trends to be more negative [26,29]. Finally, with increasing evidence to show that avian population trends are associated with climatic change, such that some species appear to have benefited from recent climatic warming and are increasing in number, while others are disadvantaged and are decreasing in number [30][31][32], we predict a positive relationship between species' trends and climatic suitability. ...
... A species' migration strategy was defined as: (i) resident, (ii) partial migrant, (iii) short-distance migrant, and (iv) long-distance migrant, following Sanderson et al. [46]. We were also interested in the potential influence of climate change on species trends, given previous work linking species' trends, both positive and negative, with climate projections and trends in climate suitability [30][31][32] and so we calculated 'climate suitability trends' (CST) for each species at a UK and an EU level (electronic supplementary material, text S1). A species' CST is the slope of a regression of the logit of modelled mean annual climate suitability across the species' range against time [30]. ...
... We were also interested in the potential influence of climate change on species trends, given previous work linking species' trends, both positive and negative, with climate projections and trends in climate suitability [30][31][32] and so we calculated 'climate suitability trends' (CST) for each species at a UK and an EU level (electronic supplementary material, text S1). A species' CST is the slope of a regression of the logit of modelled mean annual climate suitability across the species' range against time [30]. Derivation of a CST requires first that species' occurrence data are related to climate data taken from a relevant period (typically a 30-50-year mean climate preceding or relating to the period of species range data collection). ...
Detecting biodiversity change and identifying its causes is challenging because biodiversity is multifaceted and temporal data often contain bias. Here, we model temporal change in species' abundance and biomass by using extensive data describing the population sizes and trends of native breeding birds in the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU). In addition, we explore how species’ population trends vary with species' traits. We demonstrate significant change in the bird assemblages of the UK and EU, with substantial reductions in overall bird abundance and losses concentrated in a relatively small number of abundant and smaller sized species. By contrast, rarer and larger birds had generally fared better. Simultaneously, overall avian biomass had increased very slightly in the UK and was stable in the EU, indicating a change in community structure. Abundance trends across species were positively correlated with species’ body mass and with trends in climate suitability, and varied with species' abundance, migration strategy and niche associations linked to diet. Our work highlights how changes in biodiversity cannot be captured easily by a single number; care is required when measuring and interpreting biodiversity change given that different metrics can provide very different insights.
This article is part of the theme issue ‘Detecting and attributing the causes of biodiversity change: needs, gaps and solutions’.
... As sensitive species, birds are particularly affected by climate change because they are highly sensitive to climate and weather [8,9]. Shifts in bird distribution have already been linked to climate change [10][11][12][13]. Moreover, some studies have suggested that global bird and mammal populations have decreased considerably in regions with high temperatures [11]. ...
Global climate change has become a trend and is one of the main factors affecting biodiversity patterns and species distributions. Many wild animals adapt to the changing living environment caused by climate change by changing their habitats. Birds are highly sensitive to climate change. Understanding the suitable wintering habitat of the Eurasian Spoonbill (Platalea leucorodia leucorodia) and its response to future climatic change is essential for its protection. In China, it was listed as national grade II key protected wild animal in the adjusted State List of key protected wild animals in 2021, in Near Threatened status. Few studies on the distribution of the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill have been carried out in China. In this study, we simulated the suitable habitat under the current period and modeled the distribution dynamics of the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill in response to climate change under different periods by using the MaxEnt model. Our results showed that the current suitable wintering habitats for the Eurasian Spoonbill are mainly concentrated in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Distance from the water, precipitation of the driest quarter, altitude, and mean temperature of the driest quarter contributed the most to the distribution model for the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill, with a cumulative contribution of 85%. Future modeling showed that the suitable distribution of the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill extends to the north as a whole, and the suitable area shows an increasing trend. Our simulation results are helpful in understanding the distribution of the wintering Eurasian Spoonbill under different periods in China and support species conservation.
... The landscape of the Faisalabad Division in the Province of Punjab has been undergoing major changes due to rapid urbanization driven by a fast growing human population. Avian populations are changing rapidly as a result of extensive environmental change and these rates of change are expected to accelerate over the coming decades (Gregory et al., 2009). Human activities have some serious effects on avian diversity and bring changes which may lead to local and even worldwide extinction of avian fauna (Sumaila et al., 2020). ...
