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The criteria for categorizing suitability value of current suitable habitats for Larix potaninii Batalin, Larix griffithii and Larix speciosa under different climate scenarios.
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How climate change affects the plants on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) has become a hot research topic in recent years. It was widely recognized that Larix. are sensitive to climate change, while the corresponding research of Larix. on the QTP has been rare. Using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, we predicted the potential distribution pattern...
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... results suggested that the MaxEnt model achieved excellent simulation performance, which could accurately and stably predict the suitable habitats of Larix potaninii Batalin, Larix griffithii and Larix speciosa. We utilized the natural breaks (Jenks) method as the criteria for categorizing suitability (Table 2). According to the suitable habitat division obtained by the MaxEnt model (Figure 3), the suitable areas of Larix potaninii Batalin were mainly distributed in the southeastern QTP, namely, Sichuan, Yunnan, Gansu, and southeast of Tibet, with sparse distribution in Qinghai, and the cover area was approximately 42.16 × 10 4 km 2 (about 16.39% of QTP). ...Context 2
... to the suitable habitat division obtained by the MaxEnt model (Figure 3), the suitable areas of Larix potaninii Batalin were mainly distributed in the southeastern QTP, namely, Sichuan, Yunnan, Gansu, and southeast of Tibet, with sparse distribution in Qinghai, and the cover area was approximately 42.16 × 10 4 km 2 (about 16.39% of QTP). The highly suitable areas were mainly concentrated in the Yunnan, Si- 2023, 14, 1058 7 of 20 We utilized the natural breaks (Jenks) method as the criteria for categorizing suitability (Table 2). According to the suitable habitat division obtained by the MaxEnt model (Figure 3), the suitable areas of Larix potaninii Batalin were mainly distributed in the southeastern QTP, namely, Sichuan, Yunnan, Gansu, and southeast of Tibet, with sparse distribution in Qinghai, and the cover area was approximately 42.16 × 10 4 km 2 (about 16.39% of QTP). ...Citations
... This criterion was based on the study by Ranjitkar [37], who suggested that there was no multicollinearity problem when the VIF value between factors was less than 10. When screening the variables, we first used the results from the pre-runs in the maxent model to exclude the environmental variables with low contributions (percent contribution ≤ 1) [38]. Then, we subjected the environmental variables at each species site to Pearson's correlation test (Pearson's correlation coefficient r > 0.8, p < 0.05) [39]. ...
Tinospora Miers is considered a valuable medicinal herb that is suffering from severe habitat degradation due to climate change and human activities, but the variations in its suitable habitats and ecological service values remain unclear, especially in the context of accelerating global warming. In this study, we employed the MaxEnt model to estimate the suitable habitat changes and ecological service values of three rare Tinospora (T. craveniana, T. yunnanensis, and T. sinensis) species in China under four climate change scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) from 2041 to 2100. The results show that the suitable habitats of T. craveniana, T. yunnanensis, and T. sinensis are mainly distributed in Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guangxi, respectively. Under the future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat of T. craveniana and T. sinensis is projected to expand toward the northeast and north, while that of T. yunnanensis will contract toward the northeast. The mean diurnal temperature range is the main environmental factor affecting T. craveniana and T. yunnanensis, while the annual mean temperature is a more important factor affecting T. sinensis. In the SSP245 scenario, T. craveniana and T. yunnanensis are expected to have the highest ecological service values from 2081 to 2100, while they will be relatively consistent in other climate scenarios and chronologies. The case of water protection accounts for the highest proportion of the total ecosystem service values, except for the economic value. This study provides a scientific reference for the diversity conservation of these rare species.
... The Tibetan Plateau, recognized as a sensitive and ecologically vulnerable zone to climate change [12][13][14], has a unique geographical location and special ecological environment that promotes the diversity and richness of species [15][16][17]. Climate warming will likely lead to the gradual migration of vulnerable species to higher altitudes and the destruction of and reduction in adaptive areas, and may even lead to extinction for certain species, which presents obstacles to the implementation of conservation measures [18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26]. Therefore, exploring the responses of vulnerable species' adaptive distribution (suitable areas) and vulnerability to climate change improves the development of scientific conservation strategies [27]. ...
... Secondly, environmental factors were extracted according to the distribution points of species' coordinate information using ArcGIS 10.8 software, and Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated using IBM SPSS 27 software for correlation analysis. If two or more of the screened environmental variables have a correlation with an absolute value of ≥0.8 [21,65], only the factor with the largest contribution was selected. Finally, we constructed models using the screened environmental factors (Table 1). ...
... Due to the different ecological characteristics of different species, there was no fixed format for classifying the adaptive distribution for species prediction results. Thus, we chose a method commonly used by researchers, the Natural Breaks (Jenks) classification method [21]. Typically, MaxEnt predictions are classified into four categories (Table S2), namely, not adaptive, minimally adaptive, moderately adaptive, and highly adaptive, and the area of adaptive areas was quantified. ...
Climate change has had an almost irreversible impact on the distribution patterns of tree species on the Tibetan Plateau, driving some vulnerable species to the brink of extinction. Therefore, it is important to assess the vulnerability of tree species in climate-sensitive areas under the following three IPCC-CMIP6 scenarios: SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585. The MaxEnt model was used to predict adaptive distribution for one endangered (Acer wardii W. W. Smith (A. wardii)) and six vulnerable maple plants on the Tibetan Plateau under current and future conditions. We then evaluated their vulnerability using the landscape fragmentation index. Our results showed that the current adaptive areas of vulnerable maple species were mainly distributed in the southeast of the Tibetan Plateau. The dominant factors affecting adaptive areas were temperature annual range (BIO7) for Acer sikkimense Miq. and Acer sterculiaceum Wall.; annual precipitation (BIO12) for Acer cappadocicum Gled.; precipitation of driest month (BIO14) for Acer pectinatum Wall. ex G. Nicholson, Acer taronense Hand.-Mazz., and A. wardii; and subsoil clay fraction (S_CLAY) for Acer campbellii Hook.f. & Thoms. ex Hiern (A. campbellii) Under the three future scenarios, the adaptive areas of maple on the Tibetan Plateau area shifted to the northwest, and habitat suitability increased in the northwestern part of the adaptive areas. In the SSP370 scenario, all seven species showed an increase in adaptive areas, while certain species decreased in some periods under the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios. The status of the endangered maple species is likely to be even more fragile under the three future scenarios. A. wardii and A. campbellii are more vulnerable and may face extinction, requiring immediate attention and protection. In contrast, the vulnerability of the remaining five species decreased. In conclusion, this study provides recommendations for conserving vulnerable maple species on the Tibetan Plateau. Our data support understanding the distributional changes and vulnerability assessment of these tree species.
... In order to avoid strong correlations between excess variables leading to overfitting of the final simulation results, the 32 environmental factors used in this study were first imported into the MaxEnt model for simulation and screened for environmental variables with percentage contributions ≥1% [44,45]. Next, we calculated the correlation between Sustainability 2024, 16, 2164 4 of 16 environmental variables by using the spatial analyst tools of ArcGIS 10.8 software. ...
... Based on the natural discontinuity classification method (Jenks) of ArcGIS software, we used the ASC data outputted by the MaxEnt model to divide the highly suitable habitat, moderately suitable habitat, lowly suitable habitat, and not suitable habitat for P. balfouriana, P. linzhiensis, P. complanata, and P. aurantiaca under different periods [45,51] (Table S2). We calculated the area of the different divided areas by ArcGIS 10.8 software according to the approach raised by Zayneb Soilhi et al. [52]. ...
... Based on the natural discontinuity classification method (Jenks) of ArcGIS software, we obtained suitable and non-suitable habitats for four endangered spruce species. Changes in spatial patterns in the suitable areas of P. balfouriana, P. linzhiensis, P. complanata, and P. aurantiaca were investigated under different future climate scenarios by using the Ar-cGIS (10.8) grid processing tool [45,51]. Three categories of alterations in suitable habitats were defined, namely, area of gain, area of loss, and remaining area. ...
Global warming is critical to the distribution pattern of endangered plants; therefore, understanding the future changes in the adaptive areas of endangered spruce and driving factors on the Tibetan Plateau is of great research significance for spruce species conservation and sustainability. In this study, variations in the distribution pattern of four endangered spruce species (Picea. Balfouriana, Picea. Linzhiensis, Picea. Complanata, and Picea. Aurantiaca) on the Tibetan Plateau were predicted by the MaxEnt model, and the important environmental variables affecting its geographic distribution were analyzed. We found that under the current climate conditions, the four endangered spruce species were mainly situated in the southern and southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The mean temperature of the coldest quarter was a key environmental variable affecting the geographic distribution of four endangered spruce species, with suitable growth ranges of −9–8 °C for P. balfouriana and −6–5 °C for P. linzhiensis, P. complanata, and P. aurantiaca. Under different future climate pathways, the highly suitable habitat of four endangered spruce was mainly situated in the east, south, and southeast districts of the Tibetan Plateau. With the suitable growth range of key variables continuing to expand on the Tibetan Plateau, the area of suitable habitat for each of the four endangered spruce species increases to varying degrees. Compared with the current climate, four endangered spruce species will expand to the northwest of the Tibetan Plateau under different future climate scenarios, and the degree of expansion will increase with the increase in temperature. This study not only reveals the response of suitable habitats of four endangered spruce species to global warming, but also provides scientific insights for spruce population conservation and sustainable development.
... The emission of greenhouse gases has markedly changed the energy equilibrium within the Earth's climatic system [61], these changes in environmental conditions caused by climate change affect the suitable distribution range of species. Research on the suitable distribution areas of Paeonia delavayi [62], Rhododendron purdomii [63], and Larix [64] as a reaction to climatic shifts indicates that these species' suitable distribution ranges are shifting towards higher latitudes and northwest regions due to global climate change. ...
... Under future climate change, Shaanxi Province and Sichuan Province should remain the most stable distribution areas; nevertheless, the northern part of the modern suitable habitat shows varying degrees of area increase, and the southern part of the modern suitable habitat is projected to shrink [5]. The contraction areas are greater than the increased areas in the future under climate change, except the scenarios SSP5-8.5 in the 2070s and 2090s, which was supported by a similar plant, Larix potaninii Batalin, whose suitable habitats would be reduced by 24.66 × 10 4 km 2 (9.59% of QTP) under the 2081-2100 SSP5-8.5 scenario [43]. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the loss of suitable areas was larger than other scenarios in various periods, among which Yunnan Province, Guizhou Province, Hubei Province, and Henan Province were the main decreased areas. ...
Primula filchnerae, an endangered plant endemic to China, has drawn people’s attention in recent years due to its ornamental value in flower. It was rarely recorded since being described in 1902, but it was rediscovered in 2009 and is now known from a limited number of sites located in Hubei and Shaanxi Provinces. Since the species is still poorly known, a number of unanswered questions arise related to it: How has P. filchnerae responded to past climate change and how might it respond in the future? Why was P. filchmerae so rarely collected during the past century? We assembled geographic coordinates for P. filchnerae through the field surveys and website searches, and then used a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate its potential suitable distribution in six periods with varied carbon emission levels by combining bioclimatic and environmental factors. MaxEnt showed that Min Temperature of the Coldest Month (bio6) and Precipitation of the Coldest Quarter (bio19) affected P. filchnerae’s distribution most, with an aggregate contribution >60% and suitable ranges above −5 °C and below 40 mm, respectively. We also analyzed potential habitat distribution in various periods with differing impacts of climate change compared to today’s suitable habitats, and in most cases, Shaanxi and Sichuan remained the most stable areas and with possible expansion to the north under various carbon emission scenarios, but the 2050s SSP5-8.5 scenario may be an exception. Moreover, we used MaxEnt to evaluate population shifts, with various scenarios indicating that geometric center would be concentrated in Sichuan Province in China. Finally, conservation strategies are suggested, including the creation of protected areas, long-term monitoring, raising public awareness of plant conservation, situ conservation measures, assisted migration, and species introduction. This study demonstrates how P. filchnerae may have adapted to changes in different periods and provides a scientific basis for germplasm conservation and management.
