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Summary statistics of major socio-economic characteristics of sample households. Source: Field survey, 2018
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Cyclone early warning systems are the primary sources of information that enable people to develop a preparedness strategy to mitigate the hazards of cyclones to lives and livelihoods. In Bangladesh, cyclone early warnings have significantly decreased the number of cyclone related fatalities over the last two decades. Nevertheless, several challeng...
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Context 1
... survey team comprised of post-graduate and undergraduate university students, who were trained for two weeks, with a particular focus on the field techniques required to conduct choice experiments. Table 2 presents the dominant socioeconomic characteristics of respondent-households in this study. The majority (78%) of the respondents were male. ...Context 2
... level revealed that respondents had a poor educational status and on average, had completed less than five years of academic schooling. Literacy levels further indicated a high degree of disparity in schooling as Table 2 indicates nearly equal values for both mean and standard deviation. The income distribution of sampled households indicated a high degree of disparity, as the standard deviation presenting a substantial value, equal to 63.62% of the average income. ...Context 3
... average, 27% household members were primary earners, thus implying a relatively high dependency ratio. The findings from Table 2 suggest that each household, on average, had nearly 38% vulnerable members. Meanwhile, 91% of respondents reported that at least one mobile phone connection was owned within their households. ...Citations
... DRR is roughly observing outside hazards alone to considering the fundamental circumstances of vulnerability as molded by the social, cultural, economic, and political background of a certain country (Services, 1994). To decrease the loss from these catastrophes, particularly for zones suffering repeated tropical cyclones, adaptation procedures aligning with calamity preparedness need to be more proficient and operational (Ahsan et al., 2020). Changes in rainfall, however, also can affect crops and change this overall shape locally and provincially (Smith, Schellnhuber and Mirza, 2001). ...
... Cyclone early warning mechanism are the major sources of information that assist people to develop a preparedness approach to mitigate the threats of cyclones to lives and maintenances. In Bangladesh, cyclone early warnings have meaningfully reduced the number of cyclone related mortalities above the last two decades (Ahsan et al., 2020). Millions of populaces are hypothetically being evacuated in Bangladesh due to natural catastrophes connected with climate transformation (Gakpey, 2022). ...
Introduction: Climate change is one kind of erratic behaviors and hazards of environmental consequence such as flood, flash flood, drought, heat & cold waves, cyclone, high and low tide, river bank erosion, salinity intrusion etc.
Methods: A qualitative study approaches (FGD & KII) was performed from July-December, 2022 to explore the changes of vulnerable peoples’ ecological migration perspective in disaster affected southern part of Bangladesh.
Results: People usually move to the nearest town and peri-urban areas for seeking the job due to concurrent cyclone, storm surge, flood in the coastal areas. The effect of disasters causes recurrent saline water to increase the relocation of vulnerable peoples to consider livelihood exploration in alternative areas. This is a periodic trend of migration not permanent. Yet, several people normally staying in place temporarily are engaged in shrimp and crab fattening farming, small agri-business, extracting natural resources such as honey and wood collection from mangrove forest Sundarban, catching necessary fishes from the river. The respective fishermen who transform their fishing location seasonally and voluntarily. Again, heavy rainfall and flash-flood condition usually creates intra-district temporary migration for maintaining their daily livelihood smoothly. In the char lands, this migration takes place due to riverbank erosion where family members were forced to relocate a new residence. It occurs when the IGA of people are disrupted by ecological events. Families leave their home on disasters period and return, once the condition is back to normal.
Conclusion: Movement for rural people needs constant land management systems including governance, ownership rights & access and technical support for financing land use and making productive use of land to cope against frequent natural calamities. GOB therefore must consider these challenges and gradually improve its capacity to prepare its technology to renovate the vulnerable local people into a climate resilient one.
... The warning services from BMD are the primary source of information for all stakeholders. Coastal residents receive warnings through continuous alerts aired by Bangladesh television and radio, and warnings are also announced through megaphones, handheld bullhorns, bicycle-mounted loudspeakers, warning flags, hand-sirens, peer groups, local police, civil administration, NGO workers, and mosque microphones [2,40]. Since 2009, mobile technology and interactive voice response (IVR)-based early warning services are also being used in Bangladesh. ...
... The incidents of death and loss of fishermen during the cyclonic season raise questions about the efficacy of the currently employed early warning dissemination systems [45]. This implies that the current early-warning system implemented by the BMD has further scope for improvement and must provide trustworthy warnings and forecasts related to the complex and dynamic nature of TCs [2]. In particular, the dissemination of early warnings should be clear, accurate, factual, and timely [16]. ...
... In addition, the government has implemented social safety net programs that provide vulnerable populations with food assistance during times of crisis. These programs help to ensure that even in the face of extreme weather events, people have access to affordable and nutritious food (Government of Bangladesh, 2021; Ahsan et al., 2020;Fakhruddin and Schick, 2019). ...
... Due to its geographical condition as a low-lying country, Bangladesh experiences tropical cyclones with an average of 17 occurrences every year that often impacted fisherfolks and farmers [14] . Following the tragic experience from Cyclone Bhola on 12 November 1970 that caused the loss of lives of about 500,000 people, the Government of Bangladesh has been introducing disaster risk reduction (DRR) measures, including early warning systems, to prevent such large-scale disaster from reoccurring [15] . The government also learns from other past experiences so that communities can prepare and appropriately respond to future cyclone disasters. ...
... To facilitate cyclone forecasting, the Storm Warning Centre (SWC) of BMD obtains information from radar observations, satellite imagery, field observatories, and the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) of New Delhi. After analyzing the information, SWC/BMD will then create an early warning message that will be disseminated to the media (i.e., television, radio, and newspaper) and to the Cyclone Preparedness Programme (CPP) -a unique institutional arrangement within the government for community preparedness, comprising over 74,000 volunteers [15,17] . When CPP receives the warning information, it will be forwarded to the Coastal Zonal Offices (CZO) at the district level, which will then forward it to the Upazila Disaster Management Committees (UzDMC) at the sub-district level, and down to the Union Disaster Management Committees (UDMC) at the lowest level. ...
... This is evident from the recent tropical cyclones like Sidr of 2007 and Aila of 2009 that severely impacted the lives and livelihoods of coastal communities. In fact, during the last three decades (1991-2021), Bangladesh recorded over 160,000 deaths from tropical cyclones [15] . In view of this, the BMD keeps improving the early warning system by strengthening the wireless communication at all levels as well as introducing the Interactive Voice Response (IVR) service, where communities can dial '10941' to receive daily weather forecast, including tropical cyclones [19] . ...
Disaster early warning information, if it reaches the communities at-risk with enough lead time, allows individuals to evacuate and subsequently save their lives and livelihoods. However, in many areas of Asia, early warning information does not reach the communities at-risk. Even if it does reach them, the warning information is unclear, distorted, or delayed. This paper aims to understand the underlying factors affecting the dissemination of early warning information, and how it hinders community evacuation in the event of a disaster. It specifically looks into the tools and procedures that are adopted in early warning systems (EWS) as well as the challenges that the communities experienced in receiving the warning information. The paper presents three case studies, including the coastal communities in Bangladesh, the Himalayan communities in Bhutan, and the herder communities in Mongolia to investigate the challenges in EWS. In these communities, the ground-based telecommunication systems, internet and cellular network, have limited coverage. Additionally, the communication infrastructures in these areas are vulnerable to disruptions during extreme disaster events. Using satellites to transmit the warning information to communities at-risk will not only augment the existing ground-based EWS but will also improve evacuation procedures. While this paper builds the case for using the Quasi-Zenith Satellite System (QZSS) to enhance the effectiveness of disseminating early warning information, such effort alone is not enough. Subsequent policy and practical actions must be also undertaken to improve the early warning systems to facilitate effective evacuation.
... The EWS has improved in Bangladesh after the Ministry of Food and Disaster Management instituted relevant programs in 2010 [44,63] and similar approaches have proved fruitful in India, as seen during the landfall of cyclone Fani in 2019 along the Odisha coast. A brief comparison of the casualties and damage wrought by Cyclone Aila in 2009 and Cyclone Amphan in 2020 in West Bengal shows that due to advancements in EWS and greater use of digital mediums, the damage caused has reduced, even though substantial improvements are still required. ...
The Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (SBR) in India is highly vulnerable to cyclones and tidal surges due to its geographical location and low-lying coastal morphology. This deltaic tract experiences frequent cyclones that incur loss of life and property. Despite this, the SBR lacks a systematic and effective disaster warning/management plan that benefits all residents/stakeholders. Hence, it is imperative to assess the mitigation measures currently in place to effectively counter the risks arising from an increasing frequency of tropical cyclones therein. This paper examines the efficiency of the existing early warning systems (EWS) and emergency preparedness in the SBR. Data was collected at the household level on EWS, community preparedness and the economic losses occurring due to cyclones in the last ten years through field surveys. The Poisson distribution model was used to understand the relation of losses with the EWS. Our results reveal that a lack of early warning awareness and delays in emergency preparedness have made coastal communities more vulnerable. The SBR lacks an adequate disaster management plan for minimizing such losses and policy interventions are urgently required to safeguard coastal communities during and in the aftermath of cyclones. Possible improvements in existing strategies for reducing cyclone vulnerability are suggested.
... In addition, the government has implemented social safety net programs that provide vulnerable populations with food assistance during times of crisis. These programs help to ensure that even in the face of extreme weather events, people have access to affordable and nutritious food (Government of Bangladesh, 2021; Ahsan et al., 2020;Fakhruddin and Schick, 2019). ...
... The adverse impacts of climate change pose threats to livelihood strategies (e.g., shifting from rice cultivation to shrimp cultivation) , agricultural production (e.g., yield-loss) (Miah et al., 2020), health (e.g., the prevalence of skin disease, cholera, diarrhea, heart disease, miscarriage, hypertension, high blood pressure, kidney disease, and acute respiratory infections) (Rakib et al., 2019;Abedin et al., 2018), water security (e.g., declining quality of groundwater) (Ahsan et al., 2022b;Islam et al., 2021;Rakib et al., 2019), and people's overall wellbeing (e.g., rising social conflict due to acquiring crop-lands for shrimp cultivation) (Hasan et al., 2020). The suffering of coastal people appears to be aggravated by declining income, temporary or insufficient housing facilities, and inadequate access to basic disaster preparedness (e.g., cyclone forecasting and cyclone shelters) (Ahsan et al., 2020). The Environmental Justice Foundation (2021) has reported that by 2050, extreme climatic events might displace one in every-seven people in Bangladesh, as it is likely to lose around 11 % of its land due to a 50 cm rise in sea level, putting approximately 15 million coastal people at risk. ...
Despite suffering significantly from the adverse impacts of climate change and human-induced hazards, many people at risk deliberately choose not to migrate from hazard-prone areas in coastal Bangladesh. As many of them encounter significant challenges in maintaining their livelihoods, ascertaining how and under what circumstances voluntary non-migration decisions occur is crucial. Only a handful of studies have investigated whether individuals and groups who decide to stay put in the face of climatic hazards consider their decision to be an adaptive action. In this regard, this study contributes to the existing literature by empirically investigating the voluntary non-migration decision as an adaptation strategy through an exploration of the factors affecting this decision. We employed a systematic random sampling technique and selected 627 respondents from two climatic hazard-prone coastal districts: Khulna and Satkhira. Using the Generalized Structural Equation Model (GSEM), we found that voluntary non-migrants (84% of total respondents) appeared to enjoy the significant advantage of access to their communities' basic need provision and social support. Furthermore, the social, psychological, and economic opportunities found at their existing location (e.g., better income prospects, affordable living costs, receipt of financial help during post-disaster periods, and skills allowing them to stay in that location), as well as their access to local natural resources, strengthened their social capital and thus influenced their desire to stay. Together, these factors enhanced people's adaptability to climatic shocks and motivated them to choose voluntary non-migration as an adaptation option.
... The case of Sidr in 2007 can be considered as an example, where the Storm Warning Centre (SWC) of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) issued seven special weather update bulletins. In compliance with the bulletins from BMD forecast which consist of the danger level of river, maritime port, and wind speed" people were evacuated to cyclone shelters from cyclone vulnerable areas (Ahsan et al., 2020). Additionally, the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) provide flood-related information to boost capacity of communities and improve disaster management system of the national agencies. ...
... Besides, existing research has highlighted challenges in early warning systems of the country. Lack of computational resources, issues in integrating data across multiple agencies, and irregular data updates regarding wind direction and speed often misleads communities before cyclones and storm surges (Ahsan et al., 2020). Further, adequate information about extreme events in disaster prone areas and how such events alter lives and livelihood is required for area specific investments and directing funds where needed the most. ...
Climate change has and will continue to increase the intensity and frequency of extreme climate events. Bangladesh is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change owing to its low elevation, dominance of floodplains, its high population density and its low economic, infrastructural and technological capacity. Despite the vulnerability, Bangladesh has managed to reduce the adversity of the extreme events over the years. This study assesses the effectiveness of the country's governance structure, implications of national policies, legal framework, involvement of local government, and non-government organizations in developing an efficient disaster risk reduction and anticipatory action system in Bangladesh. Through an extensive and systematic literature review the study reveals that the country has become a role model through its disaster management journey by successfully developing an efficient disaster management system from a reactive approach focused on relief rehabilitation to a proactive approach that includes hazard identification, improvement of community preparedness, reducing vulnerabilities, integrated response and recovery efforts. Also, the recent data shows that the loss of human life due to climatic extreme events is significantly reduced due to improved early warning and forecasting systems, effective use of local governance structure, active involvement of community-based organizations, risk informed and evidence-based policy formulation and effective implementation of the policies and strategies. Despite the success, the country is yet to secure livelihood and properties of vulnerable communities from disaster-induced loss and damage. Besides, there are adaptation failures which also need to be addressed through the lessons from the past. The article also discusses the disaster risk reduction and anticipatory action system requiring further strengthening, focusing mainly on building a climate risk resilient system by incorporating locally-led approach.
... Such abrupt changes in two consecutive warnings created huge confusion and put millions of lives in danger (Paul and Routary 2013;Roy et al. 2015). During cyclone Fani (2019), BMD predicted that the storm would make landfall on the southwestern coast of Bangladesh and alerted those areas by assigning the region a ranking of danger level 7. Eventually, the cyclone moved its path and did not hit the southwestern part of the country (Ahsan et al. 2020). These events raised questions about the efficiency of the authorities and eroded people's confidence in the warning system. ...
Cyclone Amphan battered the coastal communities in the southwestern part of Bangladesh in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. These coastal communities were experiencing such a situation for the first time and faced the dilemma of whether to stay at home and embrace the cyclone or be exposed to the COVID-19 virus in the cyclone shelters by evacuating. This article intends to explore individuals’ decisions regarding whether to evacuate in response to cyclone Amphan and in light of the risks of the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, this study investigated evacuation behaviors among the households and explored the impacts of COVID-19 during the evacuation procedures. We conducted household surveys to collect primary information and undertook 378 samples for interviews at a precision level of 0.05 in fourteen villages. Despite the utmost effort of the government, the results demonstrated that 96.6% of people in the coastal area received a cyclone evacuation order before the cyclone’s landfall, and only 42% of people followed the evacuation order. The majority of households chose to stay at home because of fear of COVID-19 exposure in the crowded shelters. Although half of the evacuees were housed in cyclone shelters, COVID-19 preventive measures were apparently not set in place. Thus, this study will assist in crafting future government policies to enhance disaster evacuation plans by providing insights from the pandemic that can inform disaster management plans in the Global South.
... The recent WMO report (Cullmann et al., 2020) stressed the importance of and need for early warning and waterrelated database for enhanced climate services; however, the country lacks good-quality observational hydro-meteorological data, especially in the coastal region (Rezaie et al., 2019;Khan et al., 2021b). Coastal communities in Bangladesh are also willing to invest on improved climate data and warning systems (Ahsan et al., 2020). While capacity development, data collection, and management are considered essential for meeting the climate adaption and service needs (Cullmann et al., 2020), numerical modeling of storm surge inundation can offer large datasets in data-poor areas. ...
Bangladesh's vulnerability to storm surge and success in reducing their impacts on the coastal communities are well-known. However, global warming is expected to increase both the frequency and the intensity of tropical cyclones. Also, the country still lacks in good quality data and information that can offer enhanced services to effectively design coastal defense systems and adapt to climate changes. This study developed a storm surge inundation model and database using the available tropical cyclones' database and simulated inundation for the past 31 cyclones in the Bay of Bengal, near the coastal regions of Bangladesh. The model uses a suite of Delft3D hydrodynamic and Delft Dashboard cyclone models. The model was calibrated and validated for two major cyclones, namely Sidr and Aila, using the available data for different bed roughness, track sources, and wind drag coefficient conditions. The results suggested that spatially varying bed roughness and wind varying drag conditions provide a more reliable prediction of inundation over the coast. The results also show that historical track data from Indian Meteorological Department optimize the model performances. The inundation database indicates that depending on the intensity and location, tropical cyclones can cause the maximum inundation of 1–5 m in the coastal lands of Bangladesh. More than 70% of the storms lead to the maximum inundation of more than 2 m, and about 25 and 7% of the storms can cause the maximum inundation of more than 3 and 4 m, respectively. The study also discusses the potential applications and shares insights on the implications of the inundation database that can offer improved information for enhanced climate services in Bangladesh. The database can be advanced with information about sectoral loss and damage as well as citizen science that will not only provide necessary information to design coastal protection structures and emergency measurements but also contribute to build long-term climate adaptation plans in the data-scarce region.
