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Assessments of census size (N c) and effective population size (N e) are necessary for the conservation of species exhibiting population declines. We examined two populations (Oklahoma and New Mexico) of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), a declining lek-breeding bird, in which one population (Oklahoma) has larger clutch size...
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... This study Garton et al. (2016) Prob ( Nunney and Elam (1994) and Pruett et al. (2011). generalize over the entirety of the range because of this equal weighting. ...
The lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) is a species of conservation concern resulting from long-term declines in abundance due in part to loss and fragmentation of habitat. Habitat loss can affect landscape carrying capacity, and may exacerbate otherwise normal fluctuations in populations during periods of drought, anomalous weather, or other stochastic events. Previous work provided a unified long-term (1965–2012) assessment of lesser prairie-chicken population dynamics and projections of persistence in the Southern Great Plains. Despite the final year of data collection coinciding with a record-setting drought, lesser prairie-chicken populations exhibited reasonable probabilities of persistence for 3 of the 4 ecoregions in which they occur. Our objective was to validate previous population forecasts with 4 years of additional data (post-drought). We assessed long-term (1964–2016) changes in lesser prairie-chicken populations, using reconstructed population abundances from lek count and aerial survey data, and projected likely future probabilities of persistence. Based on our validations, model forecasts appear to provide a reasonable ability to project population abundance in the near term (∼5 yr). Population abundances have largely edged upward since the extreme drought conditions of 2011–2012. Additionally, near-term extirpation risks have been reduced measurably for 3 of the 4 ecoregions and the range-wide population as a result of increased annual growth rates. Meta-population analysis indicated that each ecoregion had similar likelihoods of persistence as estimated independently for each single population, (i.e., without gene flow), but the longest term probability of extinction for the range-wide meta-population (i.e., with gene flow) was reduced by half as compared to the range-wide population modeled with disconnected subpopulations (i.e., ecoregions). Regardless, our results continue to support the importance of maintaining connectivity between ecoregions and core areas therein. © 2017 The Wildlife Society.
... Papers included in the quantitative synthesis needed to report a lesser prairie-chicken vital rate and the associated sample size, study site location, year(s) of data collection, and the method for data collection. Studies were excluded (listed in S1 File) if the data was repeated in multiple studies (e.g., [23,26,[27][28][29][30][31]), the information available was insufficient for a quantitative synthesis [32], the estimates combined data for both lesser and greater prairie-chickens [33], or information was combined for non-adjacent sites (e.g., New Mexico and Oklahoma [34]). We examined all studies that included data from the same study site during the same time period and eliminated any estimates that could include the same individuals or the same nests. ...
Climate change is expected to affect temperature and precipitation means and extremes, which can affect population vital rates. With the added complexity of accounting for both means and extremes, it is important to understand whether one aspect is sufficient to predict a particular vital rate or if both are necessary. To compare the predictive ability of climate means and extremes with geographic, individual, and habitat variables, we performed a quantitative synthesis on the vital rates of lesser prairie-chickens (Tympanuchus pallidictinus) across their geographic range. We used an information theoretic approach to rank models predicting vital rates. We were able to rank climate models for three vital rates: clutch size, nest success, and subadult/adult seasonal survival. Of these three vital rates, a climate model was never the best predictor even when accounting for potentially different relationships between climate variables and vital rates between different ecoregions. Clutch size and nest success were both influenced by nesting attempt with larger clutches and greater success for first nesting attempts than second nesting attempts. Clutch size also increased with latitude for first nesting attempts but decreased with latitude for second nesting attempts. This resulted in similar clutch sizes for first and second nest attempts at southern latitudes but larger clutches for first nest attempts than second nest attempts at northern latitudes. Survival was greater for subadults than adults, but there were few estimates of subadult survival for comparison. Our results show that individual characteristics and geographic variables are better for predicting vital rates than climate variables. This may due to low samples sizes, which restricted our statistical power, or lack of precision in climate estimates relative to microclimates actually experienced by individuals. Alternatively, relationships between climate variables and vital rates may be constrained by time lags or local adaptation.
... Lesser prairie-chicken population dynamics are most sensitive to variation in reproductive parameters and juvenile survival (Hagen et al. 2009), and other grouse species have greater variation in recruitment than adult survival (Blomberg et al. 2012). However, adult survival may be an important driver of population dynamics in the southern portion of the lesser prairie-chicken range (Pruett et al. 2011). Environmental conditions for successful recruitment may be infrequent in the semi-arid range of the lesser prairie-chicken, resulting in boom-bust fluctuations (Garton et al. 2016). ...
Managing for species using current weather patterns fails to incorporate the uncertainty associated with future climatic conditions; without incorporating potential changes in climate into conservation strategies, management and conservation efforts may fall short or waste valuable resources. Understanding the effects of climate change on species in the Great Plains of North America is especially important, as this region is projected to experience an increased magnitude of climate change. Of particular ecological and conservation interest is the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), which was listed as "threatened" under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in May 2014. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effects of extreme climatic events (extreme values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]) relative to intermediate (changes in El Niño Southern Oscillation) and long-term climate variability (changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) on trends in lesser prairie-chicken abundance from 1981 to 2014. Our results indicate that lesser prairie-chicken abundance on leks responded to environmental conditions of the year previous by positively responding to wet springs (high PDSI) and negatively to years with hot, dry summers (low PDSI), but had little response to variation in the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Additionally, greater variation in abundance on leks was explained by variation in site relative to broad-scale climatic indices. Consequently, lesser prairie-chicken abundance on leks in Kansas is more strongly influenced by extreme drought events during summer than other climatic conditions, which may have negative consequences for the population as drought conditions intensify throughout the Great Plains.
... The primary threats to the Lesser Prairie-Chicken are habitat loss and fragmentation that have mostly resulted from anthropogenic land use, such as conversion of grassland habitat for agriculture, encroachment of eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginianus) due to fire suppression, and energy development, that are incompatible with the species' life-history (Woodward et al. 2001;Pruett et al. 2009;Hagen et al. 2011;Pruett et al. 2011). It is unclear how the species' demography and genetic diversity have been impacted by such changes to the landscape. ...
... minimus; Oyler-McCance et al. 2005b). Several isolated or peripheral populations of Lesser Prairie-Chickens have been documented to have lower genetic diversity than continuous populations (Bouzat and Johnson 2004;Hagen et al. 2010;Corman 2011;Pruett et al. 2011). To date, regional scale studies based on mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) suggest relatively high levels of genetic connectivity across the species' range, yet such patterns likely represent historical rather than current connectivity (Van den Bussche et al. 2003;Hagen et al. 2010;Pruett et al. 2011). ...
... Several isolated or peripheral populations of Lesser Prairie-Chickens have been documented to have lower genetic diversity than continuous populations (Bouzat and Johnson 2004;Hagen et al. 2010;Corman 2011;Pruett et al. 2011). To date, regional scale studies based on mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) suggest relatively high levels of genetic connectivity across the species' range, yet such patterns likely represent historical rather than current connectivity (Van den Bussche et al. 2003;Hagen et al. 2010;Pruett et al. 2011). ...
The distribution of the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) has been markedly reduced due to loss and fragmentation of habitat. Portions of the historical range, however, have been recolonized and even expanded due to planting of conservation reserve program (CRP) fields that provide favorable vegetation structure for Lesser Prairie-Chickens. The source population(s) feeding the range expansion is unknown, yet has resulted in overlap between Lesser and Greater Prairie-Chickens (T. cupido) increasing the potential for hybridization. Our objectives were to characterize connectivity and genetic diversity among populations, identify source population(s) of recent range expansion, and examine hybridization with the Greater Prairie-Chicken. We analyzed 640 samples from across the range using 13 microsatellites. We identified three to four populations corresponding largely to ecoregions. The Shinnery Oak Prairie and Sand Sagebrush Prairie represented genetically distinct populations (F
ST > 0.034 and F
ST > 0.023 respectively). The Shortgrass/CRP Mosaic and Mixed Grass ecoregions appeared admixed (F
ST = 0.009). Genetic diversity was similar among ecoregions and N
e ranged from 142 (95 % CI 99–236) for the Shortgrass/CRP Mosaic to 296 (95 % CI 233–396) in the Mixed Grass Prairie. No recent migration was detected among ecoregions, except asymmetric dispersal from both the Mixed Grass Prairie and to a lesser extent the Sand Sagebrush Prairie north into adjacent Shortgrass/CRP Mosaic (m = 0.207, 95 % CI 0.116–0.298, m = 0.097, 95 % CI 0.010–0.183, respectively). Indices investigating potential hybridization in the Shortgrass/CRP Mosaic revealed that six of the 13 individuals with hybrid phenotypes were significantly admixed suggesting hybridization. Continued monitoring of diversity within and among ecoregions is warranted as are actions promoting genetic connectivity and range expansion.
... Lesser prairie-chickens typically are associated with a mosaic of grasses intermixed with various densities of shrubs; therefore, the species may be affected negatively by unmanaged grazing and herbicide treatments to control shinnery oak (Hagen et al. 2004, Johnson et al. 2004. Of particular concern is a limitation in quality of nesting habitat associated with nest success and brood survival, both vital demographic parameters for lesser prairie-chicken population persistence (Kirsch 1974, Pitman et al. 2006, Hagen et al. 2009, Pruett et al. 2011. Previous studies have suggested that lesser prairie-chicken females often select areas untreated with tebuthiuron compared to areas that have been treated with the herbicide Smith 1989, Johnson et al. 2004). ...
Long-term population and range declines from habitat loss and fragmentation caused the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) to be a species of concern throughout its range. Current lesser prairie-chicken range in New Mexico and Texas is partially restricted to sand shinnery oak (Quercus havardii; hereafter shinnery oak) prairies, on which cattle grazing is the main socioeconomic driver for private landowners. Cattle producers within shinnery oak prairies often focus land management on shrub eradication using the herbicide tebuthiuron to promote grass production for forage; however, herbicide application alone, and in combination with grazing, may affect nest site selection and nest survival of lesser prairie-chickens through the reduction of shinnery oak and native grasses. We used a controlled, paired, completely randomized design study to assess the influence of grazing and tebuthiuron application and their combined use on nest site selection and nest survival from 2001 to 2010 in Roosevelt County, New Mexico, USA at 2 spatial scales (i.e., treatment and microhabitat) in 4 treatments: tebuthiuron with grazing, tebuthiuron without grazing, no tebuthiuron with grazing, and a control of no tebuthiuron and no grazing. Grazing treatment was a short-duration system in which plots were grazed once during the dormant season and once during the growing season. Stocking rate was calculated each season based on measured forage production and applied to remove ≤25% of available herbaceous material per season. At the treatment scale, we compared nest site selection among treatments using 1-way χ2 tests and nest survival among treatments using a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK. At the microhabitat scale, we identified important habitat predictors of nest site selection and nest survival using logistic regression and a priori candidate nest survival models in Program MARK, respectively. Females typically used treatments as expected and we did not detect trends in selection. Nest survival did not differ among treatments. At the microhabitat scale, nest sites had less bare ground (P = 0.001) and greater angles of obstruction (P ≤ 0.001) compared to random sites. There was a high degree of model selection uncertainty among our candidate models at the microhabitat scale and survival estimates were similar among habitat covariates. Results suggest a tebuthiuron application rate of 0.60 kg/ha, short-duration grazing, and a combination of these management techniques were not detrimental to lesser prairie-chicken nest site selection or nest survival. However, intensified management that increases bare ground or reduces overhead cover may negatively affect lesser prairie-chicken nesting habitat and nest survival.
... The N e estimates suggest that the maintenance of evolutionary potential may be compromised (Corman 2011). On the basis of demographic parameters, only a third (34.1%) of Lesser Prairie-Chickens in Oklahoma contributed genes to the next generation (Pruett et al. 2011). If N e remains low, genetic diversity loss will lead to decreased ability to adapt and increased risk of inbreeding depression in the center of the geographic distribution of Lesser Prairie-Chickens. ...
... We used the widely accepted effective population size (N e ) values of 50 for short-term persistence and 500 for long-term persistence (Franklin 1980, Soule 1980. Elsewhere, Pruett et al. (2011) investigated effective population sizes for populations of Lesser Prairie-Chicken in two portions of the range from a demographic and genetic perspective and provided a framework to estimate N e range-wide. ...
... We employed the effective population size (N e ) equation of Nunney and Elam (1994) to estimate a demographic N e for Lesser Prairie-Chicken (Pruett et al. 2011). We summarized survival and nest success estimates from recent radiotelemetry studies across the range to estimate N e (1980.3). ...
... We bootstrapped (1,000 replications) of survival and reproductive rates to estimate an average N e /N c (Table 4.3). Additionally, we modified the Pruett et al. (2011) input parameter for male breeding success from 20% to 35% because Behney et al. (2012) revealed that more Lesser Prairie-Chicken males were successful in copulating than previously thought (Hagen and Giesen 2005). Thus, we used the average breeding success (x = 35%,95% CI = 24% − 43%) from four leks reported by Behney et al. (2012). ...
... Home ranges can overlap and all the birds attending a lek may inhabit an area of 24-49 km 2 (Giesen 1998). Connected habitat areas in the Sand Sagebrush Prairie Ecoregion are recommended to be >5,250 km 2 (Van Pelt et al. 2013), if the longterm goal is to maintain connected, resilient populations with an effective population size that can withstand demographic and environmental stochasticity, adapt to changing conditions, endure catastrophes, and prevent buildup of deleterious traits (Franklin and Frankham 1998, Palstra and Ruzzante 2008, Pruett et al. 2011, Jamieson and Allendorf 2012, Manier et al. 2013, Frankham et al. 2014). All other factors being equal, relatively larger grassland habitat areas should be targeted for conservation (Hagen et al. 2010). ...
The Sand Sagebrush (Artemisia filifolia) Prairie Ecoregion once supported the highest densities of Lesser Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus palli-dicinctus), but the estimated population numbers in 2014 were <500 birds in ~15,975 km 2 of potential available habitat. Contributing to ongoing declines are long-term conversion of sand sagebrush (Artemisia filifolia) prairie to row crop agriculture and reductions in the quality of remaining habitat , whereas short-term variation in climatic conditions with droughts and blizzards are the main causes of population fluctuations. Conversion of sand sagebrush prairie occurred later than the conversion of prairie in other ecoregions following the advent of center-pivot irrigation systems for the irrigation of sandy soils in the 1960s and 1970s. Furthermore, the avoidance of anthropo-genic structures in the region has greatly reduced the amount of available quality habitat for Lesser Prairie-Chickens. Current populations in the ecoregion are becoming increasingly isolated, requiring consideration of potential corridors or other mechanisms to increase the connectivity to limit localized extinction events. Information on the ecology of Lesser Prairie-Chickens in the ecoregion is limited. However, sand sagebrush has consistently been demonstrated as important throughout the life history of the species in the ecoregion. Provision of quality nesting and brood-rearing habitat is considered the primary management focus for the ecoregion. Restoration methods for sand sagebrush prairie are uncertain and presumably require a lengthy process in a semiarid environment. Applied practices to increase habitat quality include managed grazing, prescribed fire, and judicious use of herbicides to reduce the cover of sand sagebrush and enhance the composition of grasses and forbs. The presence of public lands in the National Grasslands of the U.S. Forest Service in the ecoregion provides additional conservation opportunities not found in other ecoregions. Established habitat and population goals for Lesser Prairie-Chickens in the Sand Sagebrush Prairie Ecoregion will require intensive and innovative approaches to conservation.
... The N e estimates suggest that the maintenance of evolutionary potential may be compromised (Corman 2011). On the basis of demographic parameters, only a third (34.1%) of Lesser Prairie-Chickens in Oklahoma contributed genes to the next generation (Pruett et al. 2011). If N e remains low, genetic diversity loss will lead to decreased ability to adapt and increased risk of inbreeding depression in the center of the geographic distribution of Lesser Prairie-Chickens. ...
... Bottlenecks should have a more severe effect on both the Z chromosome and mtDNA compared to autosomes due to differences in N e based on mode of inheritance. However, because not all sampled populations of prairie grouse have experienced recent bottlenecks (Johnson et al., 2003(Johnson et al., , 2007Pruett et al., 2011), we would expect h Z /h A and h M /h A to differ among populations depending on contemporary population size (Pool and Nielsen, 2007). This was not the case Table 4 Timing of divergence (95% HPD; millions of years bp) for designated taxonomic groups using locus-type calibrated species trees. ...
