Fig 1 - uploaded by Sonia D. Batten
Content may be subject to copyright.
Study area on Spitsbergen, Svalbard. Kittiwakes were studied at Ny-Ålesund and little auks in Hornsund, and large white circles indicate the 2 study colonies. Meteorological stations (small black circles) in Ny-Ålesund, Longyearbyen and Hornsund provided data on air temperature. The boxes show the areas from which data on sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice concentrations (ICE) were obtained (see 'Materials and methods: Environmental parameters')
Citations
... An important question in both life-history theory and global change research regards the relative importance of environmental influences on population dynamics via offspring production and recruitment on the one hand and via adult survival on the other (Stearns 1992, Weimerskirch et al. 2003, Saether & Engen 2010b. The effect of variability in a life-history trait a on the variance of population growth rate (λ), and thus fitness, is a function both of the variability of a and of this trait's elasticity e (relative importance for the population growth rate). ...
Climate variability can affect population dynamics via adult survival or via offspring production and recruitment. The relative importance of both processes is still an unresolved matter, especially in long-lived species, where the time lags between the climate signal and the population response differ greatly depending on the process involved. We address the issue using 378 time series from 29 seabird species from 187 breeding colonies throughout the North Atlantic. The effect of climate on population growth rate is estimated as the slope of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index at different time lags when used as a covariate in population models. Using nonlinear mixed effects models, we can demonstrate that climate affects the population dynamics of seabirds, both through adult survival and through the recruitment of offspring produced. The latter effect is stronger, and the long time lags involved make it likely that its magnitude is still underestimated. Because different processes are involved, the sign of the relationship with the NAO differs between time lags. The relationship between the NAO and the population growth rate is also highly variable, both within and across species. In a second analytical step, we address the factors that may cause this interspecific and inter-colony variation, considering the ecological, demographic and geographical characteristics of the populations. Among comparatively 'fast-lived' seabirds, i.e. species with large clutches, the relationship with the NAO reverses its sign depending on latitude, while no such trend is apparent among 'slow' species.
... This has stimulated an increased attention to phenological variability of individual " target " marine taxa, and also greater effort to integrate the results across trophic levels and methodological approaches. Three examples of the upsurge in interest were recent conference theme sessions on marine phenological variability and its food web consequences: the November 2007 PICES conference (Sydeman, 2009), the June 2009 GLOBEC Open Science Meeting (Mackas, Ji and Edwards, convenors; this paper), and the February 2010 AGU/ASLO Ocean Sciences Meeting (Bograd and Sydeman, convenors). The purpose of this paper was to summarize the recent results and interpretations and to consider and propose directions for future study. ...
Increasing availability and extent of biological ocean time series (from both in situ and satellite data) have helped reveal significant phenological variability of marine plankton. The extent to which the range
of this variability is modified as a result of climate change is of obvious importance. Here we summarize recent research
results on phenology of both phytoplankton and zooplankton. We suggest directions to better quantify and monitor future plankton
phenology shifts, including (i) examining the main mode of expected future changes (ecological shifts in timing and spatial
distribution to accommodate fixed environmental niches vs. evolutionary adaptation of timing controls to maintain fixed biogeography
and seasonality), (ii) broader understanding of phenology at the species and community level (e.g. for zooplankton beyond
Calanus and for phytoplankton beyond chlorophyll), (iii) improving and diversifying statistical metrics for indexing timing and trophic
synchrony and (iv) improved consideration of spatio-temporal scales and the Lagrangian nature of plankton assemblages to separate
time from space changes.
As a result of climate change, California is likely to face significant challenges to coastal management along the ocean coastline and within the San Francisco Estuary, and tough tradeoffs exist. For example, one of the primary means of protecting buildings and infrastructure from sea level rise and increased storm surges is to “harden” the coastline with coastal armoring—but this strategy is detrimental to beaches, public access, and habitat. Priorities for coastal management include inventorying coastal resources, assessing vulnerabilities, and experimenting with alternatives to armoring. This report was prepared as part of the Preparing California for a Changing Climate project.
