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Simulated SCPD (dark grey, same number of dates at each temporal bin) compared with the IntCal13 calibration curve. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0200709.g004
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The reconstruction of past demographic patterns is a fundamental step towards a better understanding of human-environment relations, especially in terms of quantifiable anthropic impact and population susceptibility to environmental changes. The recently developed Summed Calibrated Probability Distributions (SCPD) approach, based on large collectio...
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... In a broader archaeological framework, studies on prehistoric demographic trends have exponentially increased over the last 20 years (Shennan & Edinborough, 2007), creating what is termed the "boom-and-bust" theory in prehistoric demography, whose causes are not always easy to disentangle from climate and sociocultural changes (Shennan & Saer, 2021) and human conflicts (Kondor et al., 2022). A specific focus has been on the relationships among environmental trends (Capuzzo et al., 2018) and the correlation between the increase in human population and arboreal pollen percentages, notably tree crops . Roberts et al. (2019;11) note: "The results show that most Mediterranean regions experienced a series of population 'cycles' starting with the first appearance of Neolithic farming societies, but that demographic trends were region-specific rather than pan-Mediterranean." ...
The possible co-variation of human occupation and vegetation from the Middle Neolithic to the beginning of the Iron Age (7.5–2.8 ka BP) in Central Sicily in the context of the central Mediterranean between Middle and Late Holocene are analysed in this paper to provide new insights on Sicilian prehistoric demography. The demographic and economic trends during these millennia were reconstructed using archaeological, Accelerator Mass Spectrometry ¹⁴C dates, palynological, archaeobotanical, and zooarchaeological data from the northern, central, and southern sectors of Central Sicily through a diachronic comparison with variation in Arboreal Pollen, Anthropogenic Pollen Indicators, Olea-Juglans-Castanea pollen, microcharcoals, and Sporormiella from four pollen cores from sites in different ecosystems. A very significant spread of farming activities was found at the end of the Neolithic, together with an apparent demographic gap during the Middle Copper Age, and the emergence of agricultural landscapes at the end of the Copper Age associated with a striking increase in population. A combination of cultural and climatic changes during the late phase of the Bronze Age resulted in a subsequent overall decrease in population.
... In case of dates on charcoal and cremated bone from the same grave, measurements from long-lived samples were excluded, retaining only dates on calcined bone. In this way, a pre-analytic "binning" procedure was applied to filter the data (Capuzzo et al. 2018). ...
The Final Neolithic and the Bronze Age (3000-800 BC) are periods of great transformations in the communities inhabiting the area of modern-day Belgium, as testified by archaeological evidence showing an increasing complexity in social structure, technological transformations, and large-scale contacts. By combining 599 available radiocarbon dates with 88 new 14 C dates from 23 from funerary sites, this paper uses kernel density estimates to model the temporality in the use of inhumation vs. cremation burials, cremation deposits in barrows vs. flat graves, and cremation grave types. Additionally, by including 78 dates from settlements, changes in population dynamics were reconstructed. The results suggest a phase of demographic contraction around ca. 2200-1800 BC highlighted by a lack of dates from both settlements and funerary contexts, followed by an increase in the Middle Bronze Age, with the coexistence of cremation deposits in barrows and, in a lower number, in flat graves. At the end of the 14th-13th century BC, an episode of cultural change with the almost generalized use of flat graves over barrows is observed. Regional differentiations in the funerary practices and the simultaneous use of different grave types characterize the Late Bronze Age.
... We have modelized a Sum of Probabilities of 3190 simulated 14 C estimates with the same lab error (20 years), from 14000 to 0 BP, to build the accumulated probability distribution on the assumption of a single date every 5 years using OxCal (Figure 2). Given that the number of dates is uniform within each time interval, a straight line would be expected, and departures from this uniform expectation should be consequences of irregularities in the calibration curve (Capuzzo et al. 2018 to 0 BP to test the effect of the calibration curve shape using the SHCal20 curve. Plotted using PAST (Hammer et al. 2001). ...
... Hemisphere Calibration Curve and that irregularities in the KDE distribution may have been affected by the resulting shape of the calibration curve. However, from 2000 BP onwards, the increasing 14 C signal clearly exceeds possible effects of the calibration curve and the exponential increase in standard taphonomic loss (Surovell et al. 2009;Capuzzo et al. 2018). Moreover, the apparent fall-off around 1000 BP also coincides with irregularities in the calibration curve. ...
Esta tesis busca comprender los cambios en la economía política de las poblaciones del Colesuyu generados por su integración al Tawantinsuyu. Se discuten las estrategias de control incaicas y el uso de las infraestructuras locales al servicio de los intereses del Estado a partir del análisis de la producción y las interacciones. En este contexto, se analiza la gestión del excedente agrícola mediante el estudio de las infraestructuras de almacenamiento, así como los flujos de movimiento de personas productos e ideas mediante el estudio del palimpsesto vial.
Se plantea una aproximación metodológica que combina el modelamiento de datos espaciales y cronológicos con la fotointerpretación de imágenes aéreas, la prospección pedestre intensiva y el análisis arquitectónico, estratigráfico y cronológico aplicados a caminos (trayectorias lineales) y almacenes (arquitecturas fijas).
Durante la segunda mitad del período Intermedio Tardío, a partir del 1300 d.C., el almacenamiento comunitario de maíz se incrementó de forma sostenida a la par del continuo crecimiento de la producción agrícola en los valles de Lluta y Azapa. La organización espacial de los sistemas de almacenamiento sugiere una centralización parcial y una gestión local que fue sostenida por colectivos diferenciados al interior de los asentamientos. Paralelamente, las redes viales articularon al sistema de asentamientos de los Valles Occidentales, identificándose flujos de movimiento regulares tanto transversales (entre pisos ecológicos) como longitudinales (entre cuencas en un mismo piso), reflejando interacciones complejas y multidireccionales a lo largo de ejes viales diversos.
Durante el período Tardío, a consecuencia de la integración del Colesuyu al imperio incaico se incrementó la producción agrícola excedentaria como parte de un proceso de especialización maicera. Asimismo, las infraestructuras de almacenamiento alcanzaron su mayor tamaño y concentración, lo que sugiere una mayor centralización en la gestión del excedente en el seno de las poblaciones asentadas en los valles. Mientras que en la precordillera se instauró infraestructura de almacenaje estatal destinada a capturar parte de la producción local. El control vial se manifiesta a través de la concentración de los flujos en dos ejes viales principales que formaron parte del Qhapaq Ñan, el camino Precordillerano y el camino Lluta, y el establecimiento de arquitecturas y materiales incaicos en ambos ejes.
En síntesis, en esta tesis propongo que la implementación del sistema Inca en el Colesuyu estuvo fuertemente basada en configuraciones locales. La planificación del control estatal favoreció la adaptación y fortalecimiento de las infraestructuras y dinámicas locales preexistentes en paralelo a una baja inversión en infraestructuras incaicas, las que se orientaron a ampliar y controlar la base productiva y la interacción regional mediante la centralización de los flujos de movimientos como del control de la producción excedentaria.
... Such competition is arguably visible in the rapid changes and growing investment in panoplies of weapons at precisely this time. The nature of the Po Valley boom and bust contrasts with other areas of Italy that show more incremental growth and stability throughout the Bronze Age (Blake 2014;Capuzzo et al. 2018;Iacono 2019;Ialongo 2018;Roberts et al. 2019). ...
The globalizing connections that defined the European Bronze Age in the second millennium BC either ended or abruptly changed in the decades around 1200 BC. The impact of climate change at 3.2 ka on such social changes has been debated for the eastern Mediterranean. This paper extends this enquiry of shifting human–climate relationships during the later Bronze Age into Europe for the first time. There, climate data indicate that significant shifts occurred in hydroclimate and temperatures in various parts of Europe ca. 3.2 ka. To test potential societal impacts, I review and evaluate archaeological data from Ireland and Britain, the Nordic area, the Carpathian Basin, the Po Valley, and the Aegean region in parallel with paleoclimate data. I argue that 1200 BC was a turning point for many societies in Europe and that climate played an important role in shaping this. Although long-term trajectories of sociopolitical systems were paramount in defining how and when specific societies changed, climate change acted as a force multiplier that undermined societal resilience in the wake of initial social disjunctures. In this way, it shaped, often detrimentally, the reconfiguration of societies. By impacting more directly on social venues of political recovery, realignment, and reorganization, climate forces accentuate societal crises and, in some areas, sustained them to the point of sociopolitical collapse.
... This situation is changing, and large-scale analysis of prehistoric remains and 14C datings from archaeological contexts has revealed exciting results regarding population dynamics. Analyses indicate that population size varied over time, and that the population could rise and decline rather significantly during certain periods (Capuzzo et al. 2018;Feeser et al. 2019;Kneisel et al. 2019). In Scandinavia, the Late Neolithic period, 2400-1700 BC, is characterised by expansion and intensified landscape use, which is particularly true for large parts of coastal Norway, where an agro-pastoral economy replaced a hunter-gatherer economy c. 2400 BC (Prescott 2011;Prøsch-Danielsen et al. 2018). ...
... Returning to the issue of population dynamics, Feeser et al. (2019) concluded that a rather wide-scale population decline occurred in northern Central Europe during the sixteenth century BC. Several studies using large-scale analysis of 14C dates from archaeological records and palaeobotanical data favour this conclusion (Capuzzo et al. 2018;Kneissel et al. 2018;Feeser et al. 2019). A general decrease in population numbers would probably affect the South Swedish Uplands more than the coastal areas, as people during such circumstances tend to concentrate in areas with better conditions for agriculture and livestock. ...
A distinct concentration of 150 gallery graves dating to the Late Neolithic (2400–1700 BC ) occurs in Göteryd parish in the South Swedish Uplands. This study investigates why such a concentration of gallery graves exists in this region and why these were not exchanged by new monuments in the Bronze Age. In order to discuss these issues, the distribution of the monuments and the stray finds have been analysed and correlated to the results of local pollen analysis. The results support the impression of abandonment at the transition from the Neolithic to the Bronze Age. The processes of expansion and abandonment seem to reflect general population trends, as discussed in recent works on population dynamics. Göteryd parish is a highland region and marginal from an agricultural point of view, but it borders on fertile and plain coastal areas, which are easily accessible through river valleys. In periods of population growth, Göteryd parish would absorb people from the coastal plains, a process that probably was reversed when the population shrank. The geographical position of the Göteryd area created a particular dynamic and made it vulnerable to changes in population dynamics, social networks, and climate.
... The sudden increase in settlements in such areas as the Upper Seine Valley, which had been almost deserted during the MBA, has been linked to potential migrations from eastern regions, as the source of cultural influences in funerary material shifted from west to east at the end of the MBA (Peake et al. 2017b). The whole phenomenonsluggishness and then a marked surge in population -seems to have been a Europewide occurrence (Stika and Heiss 2013;Kneisel et al. 2015a), and thereby may also have been linked to large-scale events affecting agriculture, such as climate change, although showing complex and regionally different developments (Magny et al. 2007;Kneisel et al. 2015a;Capuzzo et al. 2018). In reality, it is likely that a complex combination of many different parameters was the cause. ...
... Fokkens and Harding 2013), and what their interactions with their natural environment were like (e.g. Capuzzo et al. 2018;Feeser et al. 2019), provides a necessary background to the knowledge of when millet arrived. The proceedings are an attempt to address social relations, food and materials economy and associated technologies, and the natural environment as reasons behind, or consequences of, the beginnings of millet cultivation in Europe. ...
... Approaching millet as an 'enabler crop' foregrounds its possible contribution to maintaining or increasing population numbers in some places. The middle and late 2nd millennium BCE indeed witnessed apparently growing numbers of settlements or cemeteries in, for instance, the North Pontic region, the Po River valley, the Carpathian Basin, northeastern France, and north-central Europe (Cardarelli 2009;Capuzzo et al. 2018;Kneisel et al. 2019;Pospieszny et al. 2021;Dal Corso et al. 2022;Toulemonde et al. this volume). With this in mind, and also that millet was effectively diversifying farming and cooking niches, we can hypothesise that: 4. The 'millet effect', embedded in the overall diversification in the Bronze Age of farming and culinary niches, as well as economic and social relations, extended beyond food production and consumption, into symbolism and ritual. ...
... sub-continental) oscillations affect these regions in dissimilar ways, regional or micro-regional perspectives are necessary for the identification of possible correlations among climate, environment and plant consumption. The growing number of well-dated palaeoclimatic, palaeo-environmental and archaeological proxies create a platform for collaboration among these disciplines (Capuzzo et al. 2018;Kneisel et al. 2019;Weiberg et al. 2019;Schirrmacher et al. 2020). It is, therefore, to be expected that the recognition of any possible links between the developments in these different spheres will ensue (e.g. ...
The spread of millet is a spectacular display of the power of human interaction. The adaptability and resilience of the plant may have been the main reasons for its successful integration into pre-existing farming systems. This innovation was a cog in the wheel of the economic, political and social transformation in Bronze Age Europe.
... These studies, combined with discussions about what aggregated radiocarbon data actually mean in terms of past activity (Freeman et al., 2018), represent a considerable theoretical movement within archaeology, but a timely one given the renewed interest in past demography engendered by studies of ancient DNA. Irrespective of its methodological and theoretical approach, the current study is an expansion of work already completed for prehistoric central Italy (Palmisano et al., 2017(Palmisano et al., , 2018, south-eastern France (Berger et al., 2019) and central-southern Europe in the Bronze Age (Capuzzo et al., 2018), and has been undertaken in the wider context of a burgeoning number of detailed, time-series-based syntheses of the archaeological record from macro-regions as diverse as Korea (Oh et al., 2017), Peru (Riris, 2018), North America (Zahid et al., 2016), and the British and Irish Isles . We aim to contribute to this larger effort of systematically organizing archaeological information and uncovering new insights into large-scale patterns in world history. ...
Abstract
This paper reviews the evidence for long term trends in anthropogenic activity and population dynamics across the Holocene in the central Mediterranean and the chronology of cultural events. The evidence for this has been constituted in a database of 4608 radiocarbon dates (of which 4515 were retained for analysis following initial screening) from 1195 archaeological sites in southern France, Italy and Malta, spanning the Mesolithic to Early Iron Age periods, c. 8000 to 500 BC. We provide an overview of the settlement record for central Mediterranean prehistory and add to this an assessment of the available archaeological radiocarbon evidence in order to review the traditional narratives on the prehistory of the region. This new chronology has enabled us to identify the most significant points in time where activity levels, population dynamics and cultural change have together caused strong temporal patterning in the archaeological record. Some of these episodes were localized to one region, whereas others were part of pan-regional trends and cultural trajectories that took many centuries to play out fully, revealing prehistoric societies subject to collapse, recovery, and continuing instability over the long-term. Using the radiocarbon evidence, we model growth rates in the various regions so that the tempo of change at certain points in space and time can be identified, compared, and discussed in the context of demographic change. Using other published databases of radiocarbon data, we have drawn comparisons across the central Mediterranean to wider prehistoric Europe, and northern Africa. Finally, we include a brief response to the synchronously published but independently developed paper (Palmisano et al. in J World Prehist 34(3), 2021). While there are differences in our respective approaches, we share the general conclusions that large-scale trends can been identified through meta-analyses of the archaeological record, and these offer new perspectives on how society functioned.
Riassunto
Il presente contributo esamina la presenza di trends nei livelli di attività antropiche e nelle dinamiche popolazionistiche del Mediterraneo centrale durante l’Olocene. I dati consistono in un database di 4608 datazioni al radiocarbonio provenienti da 1195 siti archeologici dalla Francia meridionale, dall’Italia e da Malta, che coprono un arco cronologico che va dal Mesolitico all’Età del Ferro (8000–500 a.C. circa). A seguito di uno screening iniziale, 4515 datazioni al radiocarbonio sono state selezionate per l’analisi finale. Si fornisce una panoramica generale sulla preistoria del Mediterraneo centrale assieme a una valutazione delle datazioni archeologiche al radiocarbonio al fine di rivalutare le interpretazioni tradizionali sulla preistoria dell’area analizzata. Questo approccio ha consentito di identificare i momenti più significativi nei quali i livelli di attività antropica, le dinamiche popolazionistiche e i cambiamenti culturali hanno congiuntamente causato forti patterns temporali nel record archeologico. Alcuni di questi fenomeni sono circoscritti a una singola regione, mentre altri fanno parte di tendenze pan-regionali e traiettorie culturali che hanno richiesto molti secoli per essere pienamente realizzate, mostrando società preistoriche soggette a collasso, ripresa e continua instabilità nel lungo periodo. Utilizzando le datazioni al radiocarbonio, il presente contributo propone modelli sui tassi di crescita delle diverse regioni in modo da identificare nello spazio e nel tempo momenti di cambiamento, comparandoli e discutendoli alla luce della fluttuazione demografica. L’articolo propone inoltre un confronto tra il Mediterraneo centrale, l'Europa preistorica e l'Africa settentrionale attraverso l’utilizzo di altre datazioni al radiocarbonio disponibili in letteratura. Infine, si presenta una breve risposta all’articolo sviluppato contemporaneamente ma in maniera indipendente da Palmisano et al. (2021). Anche se i due contributi presentano evidenti differenze nei rispettivi approcci, questi condividono le conclusioni generali secondo cui la meta-analisi del record archeologico può identificare tendenze su larga scala e offrire nuove prospettive sulle società antiche.
... Over the past couple of decades, there has been renewed interest in the study of past demographic patterns, with a view to understanding how population growth and decline do or do not run in step with cultural change, with increase or decrease in social complexity and/or with environmental change Freeman, et al., 2018;Riede, 2009;Roberts, et al., 2019;Shennan, 2000Shennan, , 2001Turchin, et al., 2018;Wigand & McCallum, 2017). In this context, summed probability distributions (SPDs) of calibrated archaeological radiocarbon dates have become particularly popular for inferring demographic trends in prehistory (Rick, 1987;Shennan & Edinborough, 2007;Bocquet-Appel et al., 2009;Shennan et al., 2013;Porčić et al., 2016;de Pablo et al., 2019;Palmisano et al., 2019); and for assessing population response to climate shifts (Weninger et al., 2009;Williams et al., 2010;Fiorentino et al., 2013;Capuzzo et al., 2018;Roberts et al., 2018;Riris & Arroyo-Kalin, 2019). More recently, this approach has benefitted from a series of methodological advances dealing with issues such as the effects of the calibration curve (Weninger et al., 2015;Williams, 2012); taphonomic loss (Surovell et al., 2009); biases in the original archaeological dataset (Brown, 2017;McLaughlin, 2019); and testing statistically spatio-temporal trends in the fluctuations of SPDs of calibrated radiocarbon dates (Timpson et al, 2014;Crema et al., 2016;Crema et al., 2017;Bevan et al., 2017;Edinborough et al., 2017;Palmisano et al., 2017;McLaughlin, 2019;Robinson et al., 2019). ...
... However, over the past two decades, SPDs of archaeological radiocarbon dates have begun to be used to model past demographic trends in prehistory, because they have the potential to document trends at higher levels of resolution. This latter approach has had limited impact in Italy with the exception of rare examples focussing on single regions or well-defined cultural periods (Fiorentino et al., 2013;Palmisano et al., 2017;Palmisano et al., 2018;Capuzzo et al., 2018;Stoddart et al., 2019). The reluctance to use radiocarbon dates as a proxy for past human population reflects a broader preference for using archaeological survey data to estimate past settlement intensity (e.g. ...
The Italian peninsula offers an excellent case study within which to investigate long-
term regional demographic trends and their response to climate fluctuations, espe-
cially given its diverse landscapes, latitudinal range and varied elevations. In the
past two decades, summed probability distributions of calibrated radiocarbon dates
have become an important method for inferring population dynamics in prehistory.
Recent advances in this approach also allow for statistical assessment of spatio-
temporal patterning in demographic trends. In this paper we reconstruct population
change for the whole Italian peninsula from the Late Mesolithic to the Early Iron
Age (10,000–2800 cal yr BP). How did population patterns vary across time and
space? Were fluctuations in human population related to climate change? In order to
answer these questions, we have collated a large list of published radiocarbon dates
(n = 4010) and use this list firstly to infer the demographic trends for the Italian pen-
insula as a whole, before addressing each of five sub-regions in turn (northern, cen-
tral, and southern Italy, Sicily, Sardinia). We also compare population fluctuations
with local paleoclimate proxies (cave, lake, marine records). At a pan-regional scale,
the results show a general rapid and substantial increase in population in the Early
Neolithic with the introduction of farming at around 8000 cal yr BP and further dra-
matic increases during the Bronze and Iron Age (~ 3800–2800 cal yr BP). However,
different regional demographic trajectories exist across different regions of Italy,
suggesting a variety of localised human responses to climate shifts. Population and
climate appear to have been more closely correlated during the early–mid Holocene
(Mesolithic–Neolithic), while later in the Holocene (Bronze–Iron Ages) they decou-
ple. Overall, across the Holocene the population dynamics varied by region and
depended on the long-term socio-ecological dynamics prevailing in a given area.
Finally, we include a brief response to the paper ‘Radiocarbon dated trends and cen-
tral Mediterranean prehistory’ by Parkinson et al. (J Word Prehist 34(3), 2021)—
synchronously published by Journal of World Prehistory but wholly independently
developed—indicating how our conclusions accord with or differ from one another
... The challenge is further exacerbated by the growing interest in linking changes observed in SPD curves to paleoenvironmental proxies with various correlation techniques and direct comparisons, e.g., 27,32,[35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44] . While these studies offer important indications of potential associations between population and climate, there have been only limited attempts to formally model the effect of climatic or environmental changes on SPD-based population proxies, e.g., 15,21,41,45 . ...
Examining how past human populations responded to environmental and climatic changes is a central focus of the historical sciences. The use of summed probability distributions (SPD) of radiocarbon dates as a proxy for estimating relative population sizes provides a widely applicable method in this research area. Paleodemographic reconstructions and modeling with SPDs, however, are stymied by a lack of accepted methods for model fitting, tools for assessing the demographic impact of environmental or climatic variables, and a means for formal multi-model comparison. These deficiencies severely limit our ability to reliably resolve crucial questions of past human-environment interactions. We propose a solution using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to fit complex demographic models to observed SPDs. Using a case study from Rapa Nui (Easter Island), a location that has long been the focus of debate regarding the impact of environmental and climatic changes on its human population, we find that past populations were resilient to environmental and climatic challenges. Our findings support a growing body of evidence showing stable and sustainable communities on the island. The ABC framework offers a novel approach for exploring regions and time periods where questions of climate-induced demographic and cultural change remain unresolved.
