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Schematic illustration of the spatial age-structured metapopulation model. The metapopulation modeling scheme is composed of three layers. At the country scale, Belgium is modeled as a set of patches (here indicated with q and p) corresponding to municipalities coupled through mobility of individuals fpq(i) of age class i at time t. Within each municipality, population is divided into two age classes, children (c) and adults (a), whose mixing pattern is defined by the contact matrix C. Individuals resident of patch p and individuals commuting to that patch (e.g. resident of patch q) mix together following commuting. The figure reports as an example the contact matrix of a regular weekday (Eq. (3)). Mobility and mixing vary based on the calendar day (regular/holiday, weekday/weekend). Influenza disease progression at the individual level is modeled through a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered compartmental scheme, with β indicating the per-contact transmission rate, ε the rate from exposed to infectious state, μ the recovery rate
Source publication
Background:
School closure is often considered as an option to mitigate influenza epidemics because of its potential to reduce transmission in children and then in the community. The policy is still however highly debated because of controversial evidence. Moreover, the specific mechanisms leading to mitigation are not clearly identified.
Methods...
Citations
... Our findings suggest that in-person school instruction played a key role in the rebound of enveloped viruses in Seattle. Prior research has shown that increased contact rates among older children during school terms influence the timing of seasonal influenza and "common cold" virus outbreaks 31,50,51 , and younger children and adults acquire influenza and RSV infections from preschool or school-aged children living in the same household 52,53 . All King County public school districts began the 2020-2021 academic year remotely 54 , with some districts offering limited in-person instruction to special education students during Fall 2020. ...
Many studies have used mobile device location data to model SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, yet relationships between mobility behavior and endemic respiratory pathogens are less understood. We studied the effects of population mobility on the transmission of 17 endemic viruses and SARS-CoV-2 in Seattle over a 4-year period, 2018-2022. Before 2020, visits to schools and daycares, within-city mixing, and visitor inflow preceded or coincided with seasonal outbreaks of endemic viruses. Pathogen circulation dropped substantially after the initiation of COVID-19 stay-at-home orders in March 2020. During this period, mobility was a positive, leading indicator of transmission of all endemic viruses and lagging and negatively correlated with SARS-CoV-2 activity. Mobility was briefly predictive of SARS-CoV-2 transmission when restrictions relaxed but associations weakened in subsequent waves. The rebound of endemic viruses was heterogeneously timed but exhibited stronger, longer-lasting relationships with mobility than SARS-CoV-2. Overall, mobility is most predictive of respiratory virus transmission during periods of dramatic behavioral change and at the beginning of epidemic waves.
... [1] This pandemic with a severe transmission led to a global lockdown and the closure of public places such as universities and schools since social distancing and quarantine could reduce the epidemic effects and could break the transmission chain. [2][3][4] Closure of educational institutes had lots of educational consequences such as academic decline, delaying training courses, and forgetting previous educational contents; so changing the teaching method to the electronic or distance method was an essential educational strategy. [3,5] Electronic learning (E-learning) which is described as formal learning approach through electronic resources has been a helpful and necessary option during the days of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
BACKGROUND
Evaluating the experiences and the satisfaction level of the academic members is an important parameter in planning for virtual education during COVID-19 pandemic. The present study was designed to evaluate the satisfaction level of faculty members of Rafsanjan School of Medicine regarding virtual education in COVID-19 crisis in two stages between 2019 and 2022.
MATERIAL AND METHODS
This descriptive study was conducted on the faculty members of Rafsanjan Medical School. The satisfaction level with virtual education during the COVID-19 pandemic was determined using a researcher-made questionnaire with appropriate validity and reliability. For analysing of quantitative variables, the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, independent t tests and one-way analysis of variance and multiple linear regression were used.
RESULTS
Data showed that only 15.2% of the faculty members had a previous experience of virtual teaching prior to the pandemic and 30.3% had a history of passing the empowerment course on virtual education before the COVID-19 crisis. Moreover, 68.2% passed the empowerment course on virtual education at the same time as the COVID-19 epidemic spread. The overall satisfaction with virtual education in the first and second stages of the study was 49.05 and 49.22 out of 100, respectively. The satisfaction of NAVID learning management system was 66.66 percent among faculty members. The level of satisfaction in non-clinical members was significantly more than clinical members.
CONCLUSION
The overall satisfaction of faculty members with virtual education was at an average or medium level. From the point of view of the faculty members, some aspects of virtual education need to be improved. Therefore, it seems necessary to improve the infrastructure and empower the faculty members to enhance the quality of virtual education.
... In the initial stages of the pandemic's spread worldwide, data derived from UNESCO revealed that schools were completely shut down in 27 countries, and that more than 300 million students were affected by this situation (UNESCO, 2022). Throughout this process, decisions were made to close face-to-face educational institutions in many countries in order to minimize the risk of being infected in physical environments and to control the outbreak (De Luca, 2018;Kawano & Kakehashi, 2015;Wheeler, Erhart & Jehn, 2010). Suspension of formal education normally conducted in a physical environment accelerated the process of transition to distance education in many countries, and this situation severely affected parents, teachers and students, who are the three major stakeholders in the education process. ...
The research was carried out in a state university located in the Turkey. For the purposes of the research, data were collected using a semi-structured interview form consisting of 18 questions, 16 of which were input data to the OCSVM algorithm, and two which were designed for content analysis. The current findings were finalized by analyzing the data obtained from the pre-service teachers who had received Writing Education (WE) course in both formal education and through distance education with the OCSVM algorithm, and, second in accordance with the content analysis. The results of the ML-based OCSVM analysis, with an accuracy value of 98.11%, highlighted the preference that the WE course be provided only in the formal education environment.
... It may be associated with the school reopen (11,43). Luca et al. showed that school closure can reduce the spread of infectious diseases, but it would obtain a rebound effect when schools reopened after the closure (44). As the interventions against COVID-19 are relaxed and children return to school, the HFMD epidemic is likely to rise to higher levels. ...
Background
The non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 may have affected the transmission of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD). We aimed to assess the impact of the NPIs on HFMD in the high epidemic area of HFMD, Guangdong Province.
Methods
The data of HFMD cases, etiological information, and meteorological factors in Guangdong from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2021, were collected. Using a Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model integrated counterfactual framework, we assessed the effect of NPIs on HFMD by different intervention periods, populations (gender, age, occupation), and cities. We further explored the correlation between the reduction of HFMD and socioeconomic factors in 21 cities.
Results
A total of 351,217 HFMD cases were reported and 455,327 cases were averted in Guangdong Province during 2020–2021 with a reduction of 84.94% (95%CI: 81.63–87.22%) in 2020 and 29.49% (95%CI: 15.26–39.54%) in 2021. The impact of NPIs on HFMD differed by age and gender. The effects of NPIs were more remarkable for children aged 0–2 years and scattered children. We found that the relative reductions in 21 cities were related to the composition ratio of children and COVID-19 incidence.
Conclusion
The reduction of HFMD incidence was significantly associated with COVID-19 NPIs, and school closure was an effective intervention to prevent HFMD outbreaks. Our findings will contribute to the development of HFMD prevention and control measures.
... School closure or class suspension as an NPI is often considered an option for suppressing the spread of influenza and enterovirus epidemics [10][11][12]. School closure can reduce transmission first among children and then in the community [13]. A published systematic review noted that the mean reduction in the peak of the influenza epidemic was 29.65% (SD 23.63) after implementing school closure [10]. ...
Background
During the COVID-19 pandemic, a school closure policy was adopted to prevent cluster transmission in schools and subsequent household transmission. However, the effectiveness of school closure is not consistent in studies conducted in different countries.
Objective
This study aimed to explore the association between school closure and the daily standardized incidence of COVID-19–related syndromes in an outpatient syndromic surveillance system.
Methods
We calculated the incidence of COVID-19–related syndromes derived from a community-based syndromic surveillance system between the first week of January and the second or fourth weeks after school closure in 2021 and 2022 in Taipei City, Taiwan. The effect of school closure on the standardized incidence of COVID-19–related syndromes was evaluated by interrupted time series analysis using an autoregressive integrated moving average with a distributed lag function. The exogenous variables were changes in human mobility measured by Google COVID-19 community mobility reports. Furthermore, the models quantified the influence of different age groups and the hierarchy of medical facilities, such as clinics or community hospitals.
Results
School closure was only negatively and significantly associated with the overall standardized incidence of COVID-19–related syndromes in 2021 for 2 weeks after the intervention (coefficient −1.24, 95% CI −2.40 to −0.08). However, in different age groups, school closure had a significantly negative association with the standardized incidence among people aged 13-18 years and ≥65 years for 2 weeks after the intervention in clinics in 2021. In community hospitals, school closure was significantly positively associated with the standardized incidence among people aged 19-24 years in 2021. In 2022, 2 weeks after the intervention, school closure had a significantly negative association with the standardized incidence among people aged 0-6, 7-12, and 19-24 years in community hospitals and aged >45 years in clinics. Furthermore, the standardized incidence was positively associated with movement change toward grocery and pharmacy stores in all age groups in 2022. In addition, movement changes toward residences were significantly positively associated with the standardized incidence among all age groups.
Conclusions
Overall, school closure effectively suppresses COVID-19–related syndromes in students owing to the reduction of physical contact. In addition, school closure has a spillover effect on elderly people who stay at home.
... The measures taken in education during the pandemic affected all levels of the education system, from pre-school to higher education (1,2). Closing schools to prevent the spread of infectious diseases by breaking the chain of transmission in children and hence in the community is often thought of as an option to contain flu epidemics (3). Indeed, many countries decided to temporarily close schools, universities and other educational institutions during the COVID-19 pandemic (4,5). ...
... Nesse contexto, as medidas de prevenção adotadas -como o uso obrigatório de máscaras descartáveis em espaços públicos, a degermação das mãos utilizando álcool em gel, o distanciamento social e, de forma mais extrema, o fechamento de diversas instituições de ensino -visaram conter a propagação do vírus no ambiente, assim como quebrar importantes elos de sua transmissão e garantir a saúde da comunidade. 5 Diante dessa medida, se pode inferir que o ambiente universitário foi transformado em decorrência da pandemia causada pela COVID-19, afetando permanentemente a maneira como o corpo docente leciona e orienta; como alunos fazem pesquisa e como eles participam da extensão universitária 6 . ...
O objetivo do presente artigo é relatar a experiência sobre o desenvolvimento de atividades relacionadas à pesquisa, ao ensino e à extensão durante um ano de modalidade híbrida de ensino, adotadas pelo curso de Odontologia da Universidade Estadual do Piauí. Nesse contexto, se discute o desenvolvimento de projetos de pesquisa e a participação no programa de monitoria acadêmica, adotando não só ferramentas digitais como também outras práticas de ensino permitidas pela modalidade híbrida. A participação em uma extensão universitária também ocupa lugar de destaque, demonstrando a aplicabilidade dos conhecimentos adquiridos pela discussão de assuntos voltados para a promoção e prevenção de doenças bucais, bem como a confecção de materiais online a serem disponibilizados para o público infantil durante o ano letivo 2020. O presente estudo destaca a importância da pesquisa, do ensino e da extensão em uma universidade pública no momento de enfrentamento à COVID-19, demostrando que é possível o seu desenvolvimento e sua aplicabilidade em uma realidade de ensino adaptada e contínua.
... When periodic signals are observed in disease transmission, as is seen with influenza in temperate regions of the world, it is common to reinforce the notion of seasonality by using periodic events and phenomena to describe the dynamics of the disease, commonly through statistical or mathematical models. Within influenza or other respiratory viruses, this has been seen by using annual cyclic predictors such as climate patterns [7,19], school terms [20], and holidays [21] to predict disease incidence. In regions that experience cyclic patterns in weather, seasonal changes in human behavior typically follow. ...
Much of the world experiences influenza in yearly recurring seasons, particularly in temperate areas. These patterns can be considered repeatable if they occur predictably and consistently at the same time of year. In tropical areas, including southeast Asia, timing of influenza epidemics is less consistent, leading to a lack of consensus regarding whether influenza is repeatable. This study aimed to assess repeatability of influenza in Vietnam, with repeatability defined as seasonality that occurs at a consistent time of year with low variation. We developed a mathematical model incorporating parameters to represent periods of increased transmission and then fitted the model to data collected from sentinel hospitals throughout Vietnam as well as four temperate locations. We fitted the model for individual (sub)types of influenza as well as all combined influenza throughout northern, central, and southern Vietnam. Repeatability was evaluated through the variance of the timings of peak transmission. Model fits from Vietnam show high variance (sd = 64-179 days) in peak transmission timing, with peaks occurring at irregular intervals and throughout different times of year. Fits from temperate locations showed regular, annual epidemics in winter months, with low variance in peak timings (sd = 32-57 days). This suggests that influenza patterns are not repeatable or seasonal in Vietnam. Influenza prevention in Vietnam therefore cannot rely on anticipation of regularly occurring outbreaks.
... 11 It also mentions a personal communication sent by Ferguson that justifies using combined measures to pursue a strategy for suppressing the virus (later published on March 16: Ferguson et al. 2020). This model is adapted from a model previously used to assess the impact of first-level control strategies in an influenza pandemic (Ferguson et al. 2005(Ferguson et al. , 2006Luca et al. 2018). This model remains a benchmark for pandemic planning. ...
In the fight against the Covid-19 virus, France and Sweden stood at opposing ends along a continuum: one country went for lockdowns; the other relied on voluntary measures. Both strategies were shaped by the governing structures in each country: in France complex and fragmented organizational arrangements focusing on health security, in Sweden a single dominant agency maintaining a broad public health perspective. Using concepts from organization theory – loose versus tight coupling and exploitation versus exploration – we show how the divergent strategies evolved in both countries. While loosely coupled organizational arrangements were rapidly tightened in Sweden, the system in France went in the opposite direction becoming loosely coupled. While the Swedish case was mainly one of exploitation of existing knowledge and expertise, more unchartered territories were explored in France. While alignment across actors in Sweden took place with one dominant agency in the center, alignment in France was related to actions of neighboring countries. Evidently, there was more than one way to fight the pandemic.
... What does the evolution of real viruses look like? Clearly the impact of viral evolution on our lives is more complex than predicted by theoretical models described above, due to geographic effects [27][28][29][30], seasons [31], immune history [32][33][34] and social behaviour [35,36]. Tracking viral evolution based on sampled influenza, HIV and SARS-CoV-2 data has become an important endavour for both global health and policy making [37][38][39][40][41], as well as understanding coevolution [42,43]. ...
Pathogens drive changes in host immune systems that in turn exert pressure for pathogens to evolve. Quantifying and understanding this constant coevolutionary process has clear practical global health implications. Yet its relatively easier accessibility compared to macroevolution makes it a fascinating system to learn about the basic laws of evolution. Focusing on immune-viral evolution, we present an overview of theoretical and experimental approaches that have recently started coming together to build the foundations for a quantitative and predictive co-evolutionary theory.
