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... San Francisco Bay region, in northern California, is one of the most economically important and ecologically rich bays in the United States (see Figure 2). Future sea-level changes will affect human developments around the Bay and will dramatically alter ecosystem types and functions. ...
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“Física Creativa” es el proyecto de vinculación con la comunidad propuesto por el Departamento de Física del Colegio de Ciencias e Ingenierías de la Universidad San Francisco de Quito, que comprende dos actividades principales: Casa Abierta de Física y Physics-Van. El objetivo de este proyecto es generar amor e interés por la ciencia en estudiantes...
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... The sea level rise analysis presented in this report acknowledges the past work conducted on sea level rise along the California coast (Heberger et al., 2011;Griggs et al., 2017), San Francisco Bay region (Gleick and Maurer, 1990;Knowles, 2010;CA Energy Commission, 2012), preliminary estimates of flooding from sea level rise (Logan, 1990), and further subsidence (combined with some sea level rise) potentials on the Delta region (Mount and Twiss, 2005). All of these past analyses of California sea level rise impact have focused on risks to people and infrastructure, in particular the studies by Gleick and Maurer (1990), Heberger et al. (2011), Knowles (2010), and CA Energy Commission (2012. ...
... The sea level rise analysis presented in this report acknowledges the past work conducted on sea level rise along the California coast (Heberger et al., 2011;Griggs et al., 2017), San Francisco Bay region (Gleick and Maurer, 1990;Knowles, 2010;CA Energy Commission, 2012), preliminary estimates of flooding from sea level rise (Logan, 1990), and further subsidence (combined with some sea level rise) potentials on the Delta region (Mount and Twiss, 2005). All of these past analyses of California sea level rise impact have focused on risks to people and infrastructure, in particular the studies by Gleick and Maurer (1990), Heberger et al. (2011), Knowles (2010), and CA Energy Commission (2012. The studies by Logan (1990) and Mount and Twiss (2005) focused on the Delta region; however, these studies were simple conservative works before GIS analysis and accurate climate change forecasts were available or largely focused on subsidence due to oxidation of peat soils from farming activity in conjunction with sea level rise and possible liquefaction from earthquakes consequently leading to levee failure. ...
... The 2005 work did highlight the need for Delta levee upgrades, whether anticipating the consequences of gradual or abrupt environmental change in the Delta. The San Francisco Bay region analyses (Gleick and Maurer, 1990;Knowles, 2010;CA Energy Commission, 2012) while substantial in some of their detail, only conduct their analysis to the extent of Port Chicago in the Suisun Bay region which represents the extreme western edge of the Delta region. The scope of their work focused on risk to people and loss of infrastructure, i.e. housing, industry, transportation, and public services. ...
This report examines and summarizes the effects increasing global temperatures are likely to have on the regional climate and sea level rise potential as they pertain to impacts on agriculture in California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. This study focuses on two climate change ramifications: increasing sea level rise and increasing temperatures. Both of these environmental pressure effects will vary by crop and location. Increasing temperatures in summer and winter seasons are likely to have potential major impacts depending on cropping type (annual vs. perennial) and sea level rise has the potential to erode and thus break a complicated and maintenance dependent levee system in the Delta leading to flooding and crop acreage losses.
The reported analysis is based on worst case scenario projections for sea level rise (SLR of 1.41 meters by the end of the century) and four climate change model projections which represent CO2 emissions continuing to rise strongly through 2050 and plateau around 2100. Two projected years measuring minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) annual temperature for 2030 and 2099 are used in this study’s assessment.
In summary, our results and conclusions found that reclaimed islands (many below sea level) in the central Delta are under the highest threat of maximum SLR along with their levee systems which we estimated at $50 million/year maintenance cost to most of the 847 miles of levee identified.
Different crops respond in markedly different ways to temperature change; chill-sensitive perennial fruit and nut tree crops are of special concern. This study was also able to define areas of agricultural vulnerability within the Delta based on the most recent crop patterns found in 2016: summer conditions will specifically affect crops in Contra Costa and San Joaquin Counties (central Delta and lower end of southern Delta), and winter conditions will specifically affect crops in Sacramento and San Joaquin Counties (lower northern Delta and entire southern Delta). Perennial fruit and nut tree crops should attract the most attention (i.e. cherries, pears, and walnuts for this region), but heat-sensitive annual crops (asparagus, beans, corn, cruciferous crops, cucumber, herbs, lettuce, potato, rice, and wheat) are also a strong driver of vulnerability in this region. There are crops that are grown in this region that appear to (from this preliminary analysis) benefit from increasing temperatures if irrigation water (and required quality) is available: alfalfa, cantaloupe, citrus, fig, olives, many of the grains/grasses, tomatoes, and watermelon. There are other crops that lack published data on climate relationships, i.e. onions, garlic, carrots, etc. which limits our ability to assess fully. Besides suitability, crucial aspects of quality and yield for sensitive crops (i.e., wine grapes) needs to be produced to help inform future vulnerability investigations. It should be clear that more in-depth analysis to understand crop physiological constraints and agricultural economics/marketing need to be constructed to produce adaptation scenarios. A summary of key findings and potential adaptation strategies for Delta agriculture with respect to changing climate is fully addressed.
... In California, the Pacific Institute (PI) conducted an examination of impacts from a one-meter rise in sea level, including an elevated 100-year high tide elevation in the San Francisco Bay (Gleick and Maurer 1990). While the report did address the construction and maintenance costs for protective measures to safeguard existing high-value development, it did not quantify the costs of protecting or restoring marshes, wetlands, or groundwater aquifers. ...
This paper examines five representative sites on the California coast to illustrate a cost-effective methodology using tools and data that local decision makers can apply to analyse the economics of sea level rise (SLR) adaptation. We estimate the costs/benefits of selected responses (e.g. no action, nourishment, seawalls) to future flooding and erosion risks exacerbated by SLR. We estimate the economic value of changes to public/private property, recreational and habitat value, and beach related spending/tax revenues. Our findings indicate that the costs of SLR are significant but uneven across communities, and there is no single best strategy for adaptation. For example, Los Angeles's Venice Beach could lose $450 million in tourism revenue by 2100 with a 1.4 m SLR scenario while San Francisco's Ocean Beach would lose $80 million, but the impacts to structures could total nearly $560 million at Ocean Beach compared to $50 million at Venice Beach.
... 2 Within the San Francisco Estuary, which is protected from the most violent wave action, the incidence of coastal flooding is expected to increase considerably. Models indicate that a one foot rise in sea level (likely by mid-century) would shift the 100-year storm surge-induced flood event to once every 10 years (Gleick and Maurer, 1990). In effect, because so much of the interior coast within the Bay Area is so close to sea level, this area is likely to be hit far faster by sea level rise than many parts of the ocean coastline. ...
As a result of climate change, California is likely to face significant challenges to coastal management along the ocean coastline and within the San Francisco Estuary, and tough tradeoffs exist. For example, one of the primary means of protecting buildings and infrastructure from sea level rise and increased storm surges is to “harden” the coastline with coastal armoring—but this strategy is detrimental to beaches, public access, and habitat. Priorities for coastal management include inventorying coastal resources, assessing vulnerabilities, and experimenting with alternatives to armoring. This report was prepared as part of the Preparing California for a Changing Climate project.
... The Pacific Institute published one of the earliest comprehensive regional assessments of sealevel rise (Gleick and Maurer 1990), concluding that a one-meter sea-level rise would threaten existing commercial, residential, and industrial structures around San Francisco Bay valued at $48 billion (in year 1990 dollars). Building or strengthening levees and seawalls simply to protect existing high-value development was estimated to require an immediate capital investment of approximately $1 billion (in year 1990 dollars) and would require an additional $100 million per year in ongoing maintenance. ...
... The cost of flood defenses is site-specific and little reliable information is available to generalize these costs. Gleick and Maurer (1990) developed cost estimates for building new coastal protection structures and raising existing ones, as well as raising roadways, railroads, and individual structures. We update these costs for this analysis based on a literature review (Table 7). ...
The western United States faces a range of impacts from global climate
change, including increases in extreme heat, wildfires, and coastal
flooding and erosion; changes are also likely to occur in air quality,
water availability, and the spread of infectious diseases. To date, a
great deal of research has been done to forecast the physical effects of
climate change, while less attention has been given to the factors make
different populations more or less vulnerable to harm from such changes.
For example, mortality rates from Hurricane Audrey, which struck the
coast of Louisiana in 1957, were more than eight times higher among
blacks than among whites. While disaster events may not discriminate,
impacts on human populations are shaped by "intervening conditions" that
determine the human impact of the flood and the specific needs for
preparedness, response, and recovery. In this study, we analyze the
potential impacts of climate change by using recent downscaled climate
model outputs, creating a variety of statistics and visualizations to
communicate potential impacts to community groups and decision makers,
after several meetings with these groups to ask, "What types of
information are most useful to you for planning?" We relate climate
impacts to social vulnerability - defined as the intersection of the
exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of a person or group of
people - with a focus on the U.S. state of California. Understanding
vulnerability factors and the populations that exhibit these factors are
critical for crafting effective climate change policies and response
strategies. It is also important to the emerging study of climate
justice, which is the concept that no group of people should
disproportionately bear the burden of climate impacts or the costs of
mitigation and adaptation.
... Pioneering studies by Williams (1985Williams ( , 1987 and Gleick and Maurer (1990) were the first to estimate the impacts of sea level rise in San Francisco Bay. Williams found that a 100 cm sea level rise would result in an inland shift of the estuarine salinity field of 10-15 kilometers (km), potentially threatening ecosystems and freshwater supplies. ...
An increase in the rate of sea level rise is one of the primary impacts of projected global climate change. To assess potential inundation associated with a continued acceleration of sea level rise, the highest resolution elevation data available were assembled from various sources and mosaicked to cover the land surfaces of the San Francisco Bay region. Next, to quantify extreme water levels throughout the bay,
a hydrodynamic model of the San Francisco Estuary was driven by a projection of hourly water levels at the Presidio. This projection was based on a combination of climate model outputs, an empirical model, and observations, and incorporates astronomical, storm surge, El Niño, and long-term sea level rise influences.
Based on the resulting data, maps of areas vulnerable to inundation were produced, corresponding to specific amounts of sea level rise and recurrence intervals, including tidal datums. These maps portray areas where inundation will likely be an increasing
concern. In the North Bay, wetlands and some developed fill areas are at risk. In Central and South bays, a key feature is the landward periphery of developed areas that would be newly vulnerable to inundation. Nearly all municipalities adjacent to South Bay face
this risk to some degree. For the bay as a whole, as early as mid-century under this scenario, the one-year peak event nearly equals the 100-year peak event in 2000. Maps of vulnerable areas are presented and some implications discussed. Results are available for interactive viewing and download at http://cascade.wr.usgs.gov/data/Task2b-SFBay.
... The Pacific Institute published one of the earliest comprehensive regional assessments of sealevel rise (Gleick and Maurer 1990), concluding that a one-meter sea-level rise would threaten existing commercial, residential, and industrial structures around San Francisco Bay valued at $48 billion (in year 1990 dollars). Building or strengthening levees and seawalls simply to protect existing high-value development was estimated to require an immediate capital investment of approximately $1 billion (in year 1990 dollars) and would require an additional $100 million per year in ongoing maintenance. ...
... The cost of flood defenses is site-specific and little reliable information is available to generalize these costs. Gleick and Maurer (1990) developed cost estimates for building new coastal protection structures and raising existing ones, as well as raising roadways, railroads, and individual structures. We update these costs for this analysis based on a literature review (Table 7). ...
... The Pacific Institute published one of the earliest comprehensive regional assessments of sealevel rise (Gleick and Maurer 1990), concluding that a one-meter sea-level rise would threaten existing commercial, residential, and industrial structures around San Francisco Bay valued at $48 billion (in year 1990 dollars). Building or strengthening levees and seawalls simply to protect existing high-value development was estimated to require an immediate capital investment of approximately $1 billion (in year 1990 dollars) and would require an additional $100 million per year in ongoing maintenance. ...
... The cost of flood defenses is site-specific and little reliable information is available to generalize these costs. Gleick and Maurer (1990) developed cost estimates for building new coastal protection structures and raising existing ones, as well as raising roadways, railroads, and individual structures. We update these costs for this analysis based on a literature review (Table 7). ...
Climate change will have a wide range of impacts on California, but among the most severe will be the implications of sea level rise for coastal ecosystems, developments, and human populations. As part of a comprehensive set of studies done for the State of California, we present here the results of a detailed analysis of the risks of climate-induced sea-level rise for economic structures, populations, and natural ecosystems. Using a combination of high-resolution digital mapping and data sets of the value and type of property and land uses, we develop quantitative estimates of the value of property at risk of inundation over the next century under different sea-level rise scenarios. We also evaluate the number of people at risk of flooding, among other indices of vulnerability. The final phase of the project also looks at the costs of building different levels of coastal protection. The approaches developed here can be applied in any coastal region, but our assessment also points out the need for improvements in data collection and mapping.
... Finally, Yohe's approach only examines the net social cost of property values, ignoring not only transfer possibilities among property owners, but also various other economic impacts from sea--rise level: i.e., erosion impacts, damaged transportation infrastructure, wetland losses, oil spills and other pollution discharges, as well as various indirect reverberations like transport delays and lost spending and/or tax revenue (Hanemann 2008;Heberger et al. 2009). In California, the Pacific Institute (PI) conducted an examination of impacts from a one--meter rise in sea level, including an elevated 100--year high tide elevation, on a regional scale (Gleick and Maurer 1990), identifying $48 billion of existing commercial, residential, and industrial structures at risk in the San Francisco Bay. The report addressed construction and maintenance costs for protective measures to safeguard existing high--value development, however did not quantify costs of protecting or restoring marshes, wetlands, or groundwater aquifers. ...
A Paper From: California Department of Boating and Waterways, San Francisco State University
... In addition, a nearly inevitable increase of human population on San Francisco Bay's periphery is expected to require desalination plants providing a reliable future supplemental freshwater supply (Yeung, 2005). Social fabrics and vital infrastructure will be stressed and strained negatively (Gleick and Maurer, 1980;Hayhoe et al., 2004). Furthermore, future industrial accidents may cause the generation of an infrastructure-devastating tsunami that might reach inland seaports such as Sacramento and Stockton, especially at high tide or during periods of storm-surge (Greenberg, 1993). ...
Climate change in California may require construction of a barrier separating the Pacific Ocean from San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento River-San Joaquin River Delta simply because Southern California is remarkably dependent on freshwater exported from the Delta. We offer a new kind of salt barrier, a macroproject built of impermeable textile materials stretched across the Golden Gate beneath the famous bridge. We anticipate it might eventually substitute for a recently proposed San Francisco In-Stream Tidal Power Plant harnessing a 1.7 m tide at the Bay entrance if future climate conditions Statewide is conducive. First-glance physics underpin our macroproject.
... These results hinge on protection cost, of course, so Table V records the results of some robustness explorations using the highest protection cost estimate available -$4000 per linear foot estimated for a project in San Francisco Bay by Gleick and Maurer (1990). 21 The summary statistics noted there bracket current sea-level rise expectations. ...
... 13. See Weggel et al. (1989), Sorenson et al. (1984, Gleick and Maurer (1990), URS Consultants (1991), San Francisco BCDC (1988, Leatherman (1989), and Nicholls and Leatherman (1994). 14. ...
... 14. See Gleick and Maurer (1990) and Nicholls and Leatherman (1994) for descriptions of why maintenance costs can be represented as a proportion of original construction cost. 15. ...
Estimates of the true economic cost that might be attributed to greenhouse-induced sea-level rise on the developed coastline of the United States are offered for the range of trajectories that is now thought to be most likely. Along a 50-cm sea level rise trajectory (through 2100), for example, transient costs in 2065 (a year frequently anticipated for doubling of greenhouse-gas concentrations) are estimated to be roughly 70 million (undiscounted, but measured in constant 199070 million (undiscounted, but measured in constant 1990). More generally and carefully cast in the appropriate context of protection decisions for developed property, the results reported here are nearly an order of magnitude lower than estimates published prior to 1994. They are based upon a calculus that reflects rising values for coastal property as the future unfolds, but also includes the cost-reducing potential of natural, market-based adaptation in anticipation of the threat of rising seas and/or the efficiency of discrete decisions to protect or not to protect small tracts of property that will be made when necessary and on the (then current) basis of their individual economic merit.
