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Ripple effect and supplier exposure computational logic Going from right to left in Fig 1 above, we compute a total of seven steps in arriving at a comprehensive quantification of 'Ripple Effect Exposure' (REE), a function of 'Supplier Exposure' (SE) to risk. Assessment of 'Supplier exposure (SE) is based on the analysis of 'Possible Maximum Loss' (PML), resulting from upstream disruptions in the SC. SE is a compounding function that aggregates the PMLs weighted according to product importance in terms of revenue/sales shares in the product portfolio. SEs are computed at each supplier in a weighted manner by considering the supplier's importance in terms of spending. The REE extends the analysis toward a multi-echelon setting. It is a compounding function that aggregates disruption propagation (i.e., the ripple effect) downstream in the SC.
Source publication
Supply chain (SC) disruptions are considered events that temporarily change the structural design and operational policies of SCs with significant resilience implications. The SC dynamics and complexity drive such disruptions beyond local event node boundaries to affect large parts of the SC. The propagation of a disruption through a SC and its ass...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... develop a model for assessing supplier and ripple effect risk exposure. Fig. 1 shows the computational logic. 'Possible Maximum Loss' (PML) is considered as a compounding function that reflects the revenue/sales impact of supplier disruptions. Depending on the risk-aversion of the decision-maker, PML can reflect either (1) the total impact as the worst-case scenario if all the suppliers would experience a ...
Context 2
... Eqs. (1)-(4) and Fig. 1 (cf. the supplementary Excel Sheet as electronic appendix to this paper), the SE indexes for the supplier level were first computed (see Fig. 3). It can be observed in Fig. 3 that PML equals 0 for the two cases (water and yogurt), where average inventory enables compensation after the disruption during the BIT (i.e., average inventory ...
Citations
... Assessing risk within military supply chains Kinra et al. (2020) describe a methodology to assess high-impact, low-frequency events within a supply chain. A high-impact, low frequency event is an event that is so rare that the determination of its likelihood of occurrence is effectively guesswork. ...
... A high-impact, low frequency event is an event that is so rare that the determination of its likelihood of occurrence is effectively guesswork. Kinra et al. (2020) ignore the problem of estimating the chance of the event and instead focus on determining the vulnerability of the supply chain to unknown events. The methodology provides a heuristic for risk based on the worst-case scenario analysis, with the time of disruption as an input parameter. ...
Purpose
This paper is motivated by the need to assess the risk profiles associated with the substantial number of items within military supply chains. The scale of supply chain management processes creates difficulties in both the complexity of the analysis and in performing risk assessments that are based on the manual (human analyst) assessment methods. Thus, analysts require methods that can be automated and that can incorporate on-going operational data on a regular basis.
Design/methodology/approach
The approach taken to address the identification of supply chain risk within an operational setting is based on aspects of multiobjective decision analysis (MODA). The approach constructs a risk and importance index for supply chain elements based on operational data. These indices are commensurate in value, leading to interpretable measures for decision-making.
Findings
Risk and importance indices were developed for the analysis of items within an example supply chain. Using the data on items, individual MODA models were formed and demonstrated using a prototype tool.
Originality/value
To better prepare risk mitigation strategies, analysts require the ability to identify potential sources of risk, especially in times of disruption such as natural disasters.
... Statistics show that over 75% of firms experience a type of disruption yearly (Scholten et al., 2019). SC disruptions impose risk to the SCs besides other negative impacts such as reduced operational and financial performance (Lotfi & Saghiri, 2018), a higher number of customer complaints, and longer lead times (Al Naimi et al., 2021;Kinra et al., 2019). As a result of the globalisation of business and the industry's adoption of new business practises, such as lean manufacturing, rapid response programmes, and effective customer service, the market has grown more volatile, which has resulted in an increased need for SC adjustments (Rao et al., 2013;Singh et al., 2019aSingh et al., , 2019b. ...
Supply chain resilience (SCRes) as the supply chain network's (SCN) capacity is essential to recover from disruptions. The economic, environmental, and geopolitical regional characteristics of the Pacific region present many challenges and opportunities for building supply chain resilience. This study aims to measure the resilience of supply chains (SCs) considering the characteristics of the network under which they operate. In this study, we proposed a new common set of weights (CSW) model in data envelopment analysis to evaluate the resilience of SCNs. Many external variables beyond decision-makers’ direct control impact SC operations and their resilience. Therefore, the proposed CSW model formulates the non-discretionary and non-controllable inputs in measuring the resilience of SCNs and provides a complete ranking with a higher discrimination power. To improve SCRes, SC managers are recommended to enhance the clustering coefficient and node degree of their SCN by establishing more connections with other SCNs in order to pinpoint the essential capabilities that companies should prioritise in order to develop a stronger and more adaptable SC in the post-COVID-19 pandemic.
... Agent-based simulation 5 Kinra et al. (2020) Quantifying the ripple effect due to the exposure of supplier disruption based on multiple factors ...
Because of the massive globalization process, market volatility, and today's ever-changing business environment, managing grain supply chains (GSCs) is becoming increasingly challenging. In addition, the ongoing Rus-sia-Ukraine conflict is causing significant disruptions in global supply chains, adding to the challenges imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic in the last couple of years. The ongoing socioeconomic disruptions have created a ripple effect in the global supply chains worldwide, especially in emerging economies, which also happen to be the major global exporters of food grains. In this regard, the key enablers of the GSC must be identified to address the impact of the ripple effect and ensure sustainability and food security. This paper addresses these challenges and amalgamates the knowledge on ripple effects, sustainability, and food security. The study aims to identify, prioritize, and delineate the systemic interrelationships among enablers to address the ripple effect of GSC in emerging economies like Bangladesh. A multi-method approach integrating Pareto analysis, total interpretive structural modeling (TISM), and matrice d'impacts croisés multiplication appliquée à un classement (MICMAC) was employed for this purpose. The findings of this study indicate that geological sourcing diversification, governing cash flow to avoid the liquidity crisis, and supplier clustering according to disruptive risks are the most significant en-ablers. The insights from this study can potentially assist industry leaders and GSC practitioners in making strategic decisions to achieve sustainability in the grain management sector and thus improve future food security in emerging economies.
... Among the negative implications include diminishing SC's performance and efficiency (Guan et al., 2020;Ivanov, 2020a), international logistics disruption (Siche, 2020), supply shortage (Ozdemir et al., 2022), demand surges (Remko, 2020), triggering ripple effects across the SCs (Ivanov, 2020b;, and revenue decreases (Ivanov & Dolgui, 2021). Ripple effects were witnessed when a suspension of operations in China caused manufacturing and retail supply disruptions in the United States (US) and Europe (Kinra et al., 2020). Akintokunbo and Adim (2020) submit that the tourism, aviation, automotive sectors, telecom, food, oil, construction, and healthcare industries are severely affected. ...
... SCDs caused by the COVID-19 pandemic are heterogenous (Vanany et al., 2021). SCDs pose risks to SC Kinra et al., 2020) that demand attention (Naimi et al., 2022). In other words, SC risks are manifested in the form of SCDs (DuHadway et al., 2019). ...
The unprecedented global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has heightened the critical significance of supply chain resilience (SCR) within the contemporary supply chain landscape. The body of literature dedicated to SCR has significantly expanded since the early 2000s, with numerous scholars delving into the construction of SCR frameworks based on empirical studies and literature reviews. Despite the usefulness of these frameworks, there has been a notable absence of a generic framework that transcends industry and national boundaries, particularly in light of the disruptive events triggered by the COVID-19 crisis. This study employs the narrative literature review method to intricately integrate itself into the existing SCR literature, conducting a comprehensive analysis, identifying theoretical foundations and empirical discoveries, and synthesizing this knowledge into a cohesive and all-encompassing structure to formulate a conceptual framework for SCR. This generic framework is designed to accommodate the unique characteristics of various supply chains. While the empirical validation of this innovative framework remains pending, it presents a valuable opportunity for scholars to engage in scientific investigations on SCR, building upon the collective insights of their predecessors. Moreover, practitioners can leverage this framework to scrutinize and construct resilient supply chains capable of withstanding future disruptions.
... Lack of visibility remains a significant challenge for companies. Several studies have shown how lack of visibility can impact supply chain resilience when disruptions ripple through the chain and highlighted the need for improvement (Kinra et al., 2020). For example in D, a buyer would like to know the likelihood of being exposed to suppliers in a certain geolocation, so as to plan for risks such as natural disasters, social or political unrest. ...
Digital Supply Chain Surveillance (DSCS) is the proactive monitoring and analysis of digital data that allows firms to extract information related to a supply chain network, without needing the explicit consent of firms involved in the supply chain. AI has made DSCS to become easier and larger-scale, posing significant opportunities for automated detection of actors and dependencies involved in a supply chain, which in turn, can help firms to detect risky, unethical and environmentally unsustainable practices. In this paper we define DSCS, after which we review priority areas using a survey conducted in theUnited Kingdom. Our results show that visibility, sustainability, resilience, financial health detection are all significant areas thatDSCS can support, through a number of machine learning approaches such as natural language processing and predictivealgorithms. Despite anecdotal narrative on the importance of explainability of algorithmic results, practitioners often prefer accuracy over explainability, however there are significant differences between industrial sectors and application areas. We highlight a number of concerns on the unchecked use of AI in DSCS, such as bias in data or misinterpretation resulting in erroneous conclusions, which may lead to suboptimal decisions or relationship damage. Building on this observation, we develop and discuss a number of illustrative cases to highlight risks that practitioners should be aware of, highlighting key areas of further research.
... The other type of risk is disruption risk, caused by unexpected events that significantly impact the supply chain, such as natural disasters, wars, and policy changes. This type of risk is difficult to predict, has a low likelihood but a high impact, and may have irreversible negative consequences [3,4]. Both types of risk, which are essentially the result of unpredictable internal and uncontrollable external factors, have the potential to disrupt the supply chain, and the latter type is more likely to do so. ...
Supply chain resilience has garnered significant attention from both scholars and practitioners. However, the complex nature of the topic has resulted in a dearth of research on its key elements and formation mechanisms. To bridge this knowledge gap, we implemented grounded theory and conducted semi-structured interviews with 23 interviewees, which led to the identification of six key elements of supply chain resilience through open coding, axial coding, selective coding, and theoretical model saturation testing. These elements are product supply resilience, resource resilience, partner resilience, information response resilience, capital resilience, and knowledge resilience. Drawing from the key elements and the three phases of supply chain resilience (readiness, response, and recovery), we illustrated its formation mechanism and constructed a theoretical model of the influencing factors and pathways of supply chain resilience. We devised a questionnaire based on the coding results and confirmed its reasonableness and validity with a small sample of 109 questionnaires. Subsequently, a large sample of 409 questionnaires was used to test and validate the theoretical model using structural equation modeling, demonstrating that the identified key elements positively impact supply chain resilience. In sum, our paper enriches the comprehension of supply chain resilience by identifying its key elements and elaborating on its formation mechanism.
... Resilience is becoming increasingly relevant in today's manufacturing context where companies and their Supply Chains (SCs) face an array of challenges, e.g., increasing internal complexity, resource scarcity, regulatory pressures, geo-political stressors etc. Supply chains also face vulnerability challenges due to geographically dispersed suppliers; rapidly changing and differentiated requirements from customers and supply fluctuations (Chen et al., 2020). Consequences of disruptions due to these risks can have further implications on the SC which are known as 'ripple effects' (Kinra et al., 2020). ...
Digital platforms offer opportunities to enhance the resilience of manufacturing supply chains facing complexity,
data sharing challenges, external stressors (e.g., resource scarcity, geo-political factors), emerging risks and environmental sustainability. Despite the growing importance of digital platforms for industrial value creation, limited research has focused on their practical application in this context. Furthermore, a comprehensive understanding of the holistic factors crucial for successful implementation is lacking. Through a qualitative empirical research approach involving three case companies in a manufacturing value chain, this study examines the challenges, requirements, and opportunities associated with leveraging digital platforms for resilient supply chains. Additionally, the paper demonstrates the use of a structured modelling technique, IDEF0, to identify interconnected antecedents that support the use of digital platforms in building resilience within manufacturing
supply chains. The findings contribute to advancing knowledge in resilience modelling and dynamic capabilities for resilience, along with providing valuable insights for practitioners seeking to harness the potential of digital platforms for improved supply chain resilience.
... Owing to the functional dependency of each link in the supply chain, supply disruptions can spread downstream, causing a ripple effect and jeopardizing the entire supply chain [4]. Such risks typically have a low probability of occurring, but present serious consequences when they do [5,6], reducing overall efficiency and causing incalculable financial losses to enterprises [7]. For instance, in 2002, a strike at U.S. West Coast ports caused supply disruptions, and forced the closure of Toyota's assembly lines that imported parts from the West Coast. ...
Disruption risks exacerbate the complexity of low-carbon supply chain network design in an uncertain supply chain environment. Considering the low frequency and non-repeatability of these disruption events makes it impossible to collect data to obtain their probabilities. In this study, supply disruptions were regarded as uncertain events; supply chain uncertain disruption risk is defined and quantified based on the uncertainty theory, in which uncertain disruptions are characterized by the belief degree on account of expert estimation with duality, i.e., symmetry. Optimization models were constructed with the objective of minimizing expected carbon emissions and costs, which optimizes the selection of suppliers with uncertain disruptions, and the assignment of manufacturers and customers. The properties of the model were analyzed, and the models were solved separately using different methods according to different decision criteria. Finally, the validity of the proposed models and algorithm were verified using a real case study of a glass manufacturing company. The findings exhibit promising insights for designing a sustainable and resilient supply chain network in an uncertain environment.
... Therefore, the United Nations has established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs, hereinafter) as a fundamental framework for addressing the multidimensional challenges of the Anthropocene. consequences [8][9][10][11]. Therefore, the substantial impact of CC on SCM necessitates a comprehensive evaluation of risks across multiple dimensions. ...
... An increasing hazard does not necessarily mean increasing losses [47]. While natural CCs are mainly uncontrollable, humanity can mitigate their exacerbating impacts through appropriate interventions, ensuring a more sustainable future [8,9,11], SCs being no exception. ...
In the face of climate change (CC), “business as usual” is futile. The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, droughts, and heatwaves) have hurt lives, displaced communities, destroyed logistics networks, disrupted the flow of goods and services, and caused delays, capacity failures, and immense costs. This study presents a strategic approach we term “Climate-Change Resilient, Sustainable Supply Chain Risk Management” (CCR-SSCRM) to address CC risks in supply chain management (SCM) pervading today’s business world. This approach ensures supply chain sustainability by balancing the quadruple bottom line pillars of economy, environment, society, and culture. A sustainable supply chain analytics perspective was employed to support these goals, along with a systematic literature network analysis of 699 publications (2003–2022) from the SCOPUS database. The analysis revealed a growing interest in CC and supply chain risk management, emphasizing the need for CCR-SSCRM as a theoretical guiding framework. The findings and recommendations may help to guide researchers, policymakers, and businesses. We provide insights on constructing and managing sustainable SCs that account for the accelerating impacts of CC, emphasizing the importance of a proactive and comprehensive approach to supply chain risk management in the face of CC. We then offer directions for future research on CCR-SSCRM and conclude by underlining the urgency of interdisciplinary collaboration and integration of climate considerations into SCM for enhanced resilience and sustainability.
... Ripple-effect disruptions pose a significant threat to normal supply chain operations. Kinra et al. (2020) study the consequences of ripple-effect supply chain disruptions by developing a model based on the maximum possible loss, which is validated by simulating actual data. It helps in finding dormant high-risk supplier relations, and prioritizing risk mitigation measures under tough probability estimations. ...
Today’s global supply chain (SC) is grappling with unprecedented challenges, which rendered conventional SC resilience (SCR) inadequate. In the wake of the Industry 4.0 (I4.0) age, investment in digital SCR (DSCR) relying on I4.0 technologies can potentially enhance organizations abilities to detect, avoid, respond to, and recover from disruptions promptly and efficiently. Literature most focuses on traditional SCR, while DSCR remains incipient. From this, this paper conducts a comprehensive literature review on the SCR, I4.0, and investment (INV) interplays to identify potential research gaps and avenues. It is revealed the integration of SCR-I4.0-INV as a complex and multifaceted process that requires holistic approaches. Some research gaps include the need for empirical studies on DSCR impacts, the role of organizational culture in supporting digital transformation, and investment and resilience trade-offs. This research provides insights for decision-makers and policymakers seeking to develop strategies for promoting resilient SCs in the digital transformation era.
