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This paper presents a systematic ight analy- sis methodology through the underlying ETHOS model that we evolved. This model provides us a rst keystone to understand how the human pilot capture and build her/his environment through complex environment. We will discuss the iden- tied performances and potential deviations and associated situations.
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... Existující studie jsou zaměřeny buď na uplatnění statistických modelů (viz Dziegielewski et al., 2002), nebo jen na participativní přístup pro sestavení scénářů (např. van Vliet et al., 2007; Ash et al., 2010; Kok et al., 2013). Kombinace obou metod není obvyklá. ...
Metodika si klade za cíl umožnit řešiteli sestavit scénáře potřeby vody v horizontu několika desítek let. Princip metodiky sestává v kombinaci vícerozměrné statistické analýzy současných dat o užívání vody a dat popisujících společnost pro vytvoření modelu užívání vody a aplikace Story and Simulation přístupu pro kvantifikaci budoucích hodnot dat popisujících společnost.
... Jako příklad procesu vývoje scénářů budoucnosti použijeme postup využitý v projektu SCENES (van Vliet et al., 2007 ), který se skládal ze čtyř fází, v nichž byly kombinovány různé kvalitativní a semikvantitativní metody. Výsledky zmíněných fází byly dále použity při následném řešení. ...
... Existující studie jsou zaměřeny buď na uplatnění statistických modelů (viz Dziegielewski et al., 2002), nebo jen na participativní přístup pro sestavení scénářů (např. van Vliet et al., 2007; Ash et al., 2010; Kok et al., 2013). Kombinace obou metod není obvyklá. ...
The Methodology for Determining Water Demand Based on Indicators of the Driving Forces of Water Demand aims to enable investigators to build scenarios of water demand in the next few decades.
The principle of the Methodology is a combination of multivariate statistical analysis of current data on water use and society describing data for creating the model of water use, and of the application of the Story and Simulation Approach for quantification of future values of data describing the society.
... Scenario refinement can be implemented through an iterative process, whereby quantitative model output is communicated back to the larger group of experts and stakeholders involved in the initial qualitative scenario development phase. An example where this has been done and documented is the 'Story-and-Simulation' approach developed by the SCENES project, which converts qualitative storylines and quantitative scenarios iteratively [46,57,73]. Outlines of scenarios proposed by a scenario team involving stakeholders and quantitative water scenarios simulated by a modeling team have to be reported to an expert panel in order to revise the storylines and check the consistency between qualitative descriptions and quantitative outcomes. ...
This paper reviews current research on scenario development in water resource management. We provide an overview of existing techniques, highlight any limitations, and discuss future research directions to improve scenario development practices for water resource planning. In water management, scenarios are used to account for uncertainties associated with climatic, socio-economic, and management conditions that affect the performance of water resource systems. These uncertainties affect future water supply, water demand and management strategy. Several water-related scenarios with qualitative and quantitative techniques are reviewed against a general scenario development procedure. Although the reviewed literature demonstrates that scenario development is an effective tool to deal with uncertain future water systems, two limitations of applied quantitative techniques were identified: (i) the need for extending discrete scenarios to continuous scenarios to more completely cover future conditions, and (ii) the need for introducing probabilistic scenarios to explicitly quantify uncertainties. These issues can be addressed using existing techniques from information theory and statistics, pointing the way forward for scenario development practices in water resource planning and management.
... Scenario refinement can be implemented through an iterative process, whereby quantitative model output is communicated back to the larger group of experts and stakeholders involved in the initial qualitative scenario development phase. An example where this has been done and documented is the 'Story-and-Simulation' approach developed by the SCENES project, which converts qualitative storylines and quantitative scenarios iteratively [46,57,73]. Outlines of scenarios proposed by a scenario team involving stakeholders and quantitative water scenarios simulated by a modeling team have to be reported to an expert panel in order to revise the storylines and check the consistency between qualitative descriptions and quantitative outcomes. ...
Decision making in water resource management encounters difficulties due
to uncertainties about the future. Scenarios are useful to explore
uncertainties and inform decision makers to take actions. Scenarios are
originally used to describe the future states in the form of storylines.
These are then supplemented with numerical information from model
predictions and expert judgement. Probabilities are attached to
scenarios to encourage the specific explanation of the assumptions and
expectations behind the storylines, and communicate the possibility of
each scenario. Bayesian probability offers a prior probability on the
basis of available knowledge and beliefs at the presence of
uncertainties, and allows for updating to the posterior probability as
new evidence arises. Bayesian rules are also applicable for decision
making given the existing probabilistic scenarios. Decisions can be
ranked according to their performance on the utility function given each
possible scenario. A case study is provided to find an optimal solution
to alleviate the water stress problem in the Yellow River Delta for the
next 30 years. Scenarios of water availability and water demand are
developed for the planning period. In order to make decisions
rationally, cost-benefit analysis is used to evaluate the performance of
viable decisions given the probabilistic scenarios. Key word:
Scenarios, Water Management, Uncertainty, Decision making, Bayesian
approach
... The fact that all Pilot Areas worked towards the same output (storylines) enabled a comparison of the creativity of the results from the different Pilot Areas. The framework and its use within SCENES are described in more detail in [58,59]. ...
Scenario projects increasingly combine quantitative models with qualitative, participatory
products in order to make scenarios more coherent, relevant, credible and creative. A major
advantage of adding participatory, qualitative scenarios is their ability to produce creative,
innovative, non-linear products. Integrating participatory results with quantitative models,
however, can lower their credibility of both products when they are not consistent. The low
level of structure in most participatory output limits possibilities for linking them to
quantitative models. More structure could be introduced, but this might hamper the
creativity of the workshop results: outcomes (process) and outputs (storylines). This paper
tests a new method to analyse the creativity of scenario storylines in order to analyse the
effects of structuring tools on the creativity of workshop results. Both the perceptions of
participants and the resulting storylines of nine case studies across Europe are used in the
analysis. Results show that the use of structuring tools can have a negative effect on the
creativity of the workshop, but the influence seems to vary between the different tools. The
study shows the benefit of using indicators for the scenario quality criteria. More research is
needed to develop indicators for other scenario quality criteria, to improve those developed
here and to study the impact of structuring tools with a larger data set.
... The framework and its use within SCENES are described in more detail in [58,59]. ...
... The fact that all Pilot Areas worked towards the same output (storylines) enabled a comparison of the creativity of the results from the different Pilot Areas. The framework and its use within SCENES are described in more detail in [58,59]. ...
Scenario projects increasingly combine quantitative models with qualitative, participatory products in order to make scenarios more coherent, relevant, credible and creative. A major advantage of adding participatory, qualitative scenarios is their ability to produce creative, innovative, non-linear products. Integrating participatory results with quantitative models, however, can lower their credibility of both products when they are not consistent. The low level of structure in most participatory output limits possibilities for linking them to quantitative models. More structure could be introduced, but this might hamper the creativity of the workshop results: outcomes (process) and outputs (storylines). This paper tests a new method to analyse the creativity of scenario storylines in order to analyse the effects of structuring tools on the creativity of workshop results. Both the perceptions of participants and the resulting storylines of nine case studies across Europe are used in the analysis. Results show that the use of structuring tools can have a negative effect on the creativity of the workshop, but the influence seems to vary between the different tools. The study shows the benefit of using indicators for the scenario quality criteria. More research is needed to develop indicators for other scenario quality criteria, to improve those developed here and to study the impact of structuring tools with a larger data set.
... Drivers and storylines that have been written by stakeholders, who participated in pan-European workshops and in those from other pilots, have been checked and included in the scenarios for enrichment. During the second pilot area workshop in Crimea, the enrichment procedure (s. also Biggs et al. 2007, van Vliet et al. 2007) contributed to better analysis of the present situation and also to the development of FCMs of the future. The following enrichments were selected to complete the During the workshop in Crimea, the content of the Security First scenario was changed significantly because of information received from the pan-European workshop. ...
A new water resource planning technique was developed for regional and local levels of water management in Ukraine. For this purpose, methodology, methods and tools, as implemented in the Scenes project, were studied and adapted to the specific situation of the Crimea pilot area in the South Region of Ukraine. For testing of the new planning techniques, a participatory scenario development process was organised and implemented together with Crimean stakeholders. Various facilitation tools and supporting measures were incorporated into the general scenario development methodology as modelling results, Causal Loop Diagrams on the problems of irrigation performance in Crimea and enrichment (down and cross scaling) using results from other pilots. These tools 1
... Scenario refinement can be implemented through an iterative process, whereby quantitative model output is communicated back to the larger group of experts and stakeholders involved in the initial qualitative scenario development phase. An example where this has been done and documented is the 'Story-and-Simulation' approach developed by the SCENES project, which converts qualitative storylines and quantitative scenarios iteratively [46,57,73]. Outlines of scenarios proposed by a scenario team involving stakeholders and quantitative water scenarios simulated by a modeling team have to be reported to an expert panel in order to revise the storylines and check the consistency between qualitative descriptions and quantitative outcomes. ...
Scenario planning is a useful approach to deal with high levels of uncertainty when planning, developing, and managing water resources systems. Scenarios should highlight many possible alternatives in the future and each alternative future is not equally likely. Probabilistic scenarios are proposed. An example is given to demonstrate the process to generate the scenarios with probabilities, which indicates a promising new insight the technique may provide. Scenarios are able to inform the decision making process, conversely, be applied to test the robustness of strategies. Therefore, an interactive scenario-decision system can be built to support decision making process in water resource planning and management.
... Stakeholders are invited to workshops, and are encouraged to discuss key driving forces and uncertainties of socio-economic, environmental and administrative aspects, while researchers assist them by providing scientific information. Qualitative participatory methods make use of pictures, card-techniques, collages, rich pictures and timelines to help stakeholders imagine and brainstorm the driving forces and main uncertainties [55]. ...
The Yellow River Delta is one of the youngest alluvial plains in the world. Nowadays, fresh water availability is under stress due to several reasons. First, there is the rapidly increasing upstream water demand along the Yellow River. Second, climate change causes shifts in precipitation, temperature and evaporation. Third, land use/ land cover change has a large impact on the surface runoff and groundwater recharge in the district. Finally, other anthropogenic interventions such as irrigation, inter-basin water transfer, and artificial reservoirs affect fresh water availability directly. Scenario-development is needed to examine consequences of possible developments and to improve management through better anticipation. Therefore, possible changes in all four sets of stressors (water demand, climate change, land use, anthropogenic interventions) are systematically catalogued. To assess future fresh water availability, we present and compare two methods to link the stressors. The first way is the "storyline method", as used by, for instance, the IPCC. This method is concerned with consistency within a given scenario. Typically, this method results in a small set of equally likely scenarios, running from best to worst. The second method is complete Bayesian integration. In this method, all different development pathways are taken into account. In a simple example, we may have two stressors with only high or law values, say, high or low upstream water demand and high and low irrigation development. In this case we would have four possible pathways leading to four different scenarios. Weights, or priors, are given to each branch of each path. Covariances between stressors will be accounted for as well. The likelihoods of each scenario are then calculated by simple integrating the likelihood along each pathway. The results of both methods are compared. Key words: Fresh water availability; Scenario development; Storyline Method; Bayesian Integration
