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This paper investigates what information water resource managers think they need to make
decisions on climate change adaptation. This is achieved through a hypothetical case study where
participants, all actual water resource managers or in research, practitioner or administration roles
linked to Australian water resources management, were given th...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... is consistent with findings in other studies (e.g. The comments in Figure 4 and To determine the priority actions emerging from the hypothetical case study, participants were presented with a list of issues that arose throughout the exercise and were asked to vote on what they felt were the most important and second most important -voting was two votes per person (with voting for the same thing twice not permitted) submitted confidentially through iMEET! Table 3 lists the issues that were voted on sorted to indicate the most popular (i.e. ...
Context 2
... is consistent with findings in other studies (e.g. The comments in Figure 4 and To determine the priority actions emerging from the hypothetical case study, participants were presented with a list of issues that arose throughout the exercise and were asked to vote on what they felt were the most important and second most important -voting was two votes per person (with voting for the same thing twice not permitted) sub- mitted confidentially through iMEET! Table 3 lists the issues that were voted on sorted to indicate the most popular (i.e. ...
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This report is a synthesis of climate science relevant for management and planning for Colorado’s water resources. It focuses on observed climate trends, climate modeling, and projections of temperature, precipitation, snowpack, and streamflow. Climate projections are reported for the mid-21st century because this time frame is the focus of adaptat...
Citations
... Timely and accurate precipitation data are then core for supporting cattle grazing in drylands and, to a greater extent, for water management, environmental monitoring such as floods and droughts, early warning assessment, as well as inputs for rainfall-runoff models and decision support systems [28][29][30][31] Global scale reviews of precipitation data at different time scales, from daily to annual, have shown inconsistencies and variability among datasets depending on the type of sensors, data collection methods (gauged, satellite-derived, or a combination), regions, and algorithms used to estimate precipitation data. Several satellite-derived products for estimated precipitation have been evaluated in different regions and climate conditions and some of them showed a good performance and an acceptable accuracy [32]. ...
... Satellite-estimated precipitation data are crucial and valuable for decision-making and natural resources management. However, uncertainties related to estimation methods and analytical approaches must be acknowledged and quantified to have this data translated into decision-making [30]. ...
Precipitation is a critical driver of vegetation productivity and dynamics in dryland environments, especially in areas with intense livestock farming. Availability and access to accurate, reliable, and timely rainfall data are essential for natural resources management, environmental monitoring, and informing hydrological rainfall-runoff models. Gauged precipitation data in drylands are often scarce, fragmented, and with low spatial resolution; therefore, satellite-estimated precipitation becomes a valuable dataset for overcoming this constraint. Using statistical indices, we compared satellite-derived precipitation data from four products (CHIRPS, GPM, TRMM, and PERSIANN-CDR) against gauged data at different temporal scales (daily, monthly, and yearly). Spatial correlations were calculated for GPM and CHIRPS estimates against interpolated gauged precipitation. We then estimated NDVI response to Antecedent Accumulated Precipitation (AAP) for 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months of four major vegetation types typical of the region. Statistical metrics varied with temporal scales being highest and acceptable for periods of 1 month or 1 year. At monthly scale GPM presented the best Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient (r), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) and CHIRPS resulted in lower Mean Error (ME) and Bias. On an annual basis CHIRPS showed the best adjustment for all indicators except for r. NDVI responses to 3 months of AAP were significant for all vegetation types in the study area. The findings of this study show that estimated precipitation data from GPM and CHIRPS satellites are accurate and valuable as a tool for analysing the relationships between precipitation and vegetation in the drylands of Mendoza.
... Future water use and flow recommendations need to incorporate climate change adaptation (John et al., 2020). Yet, there are many known barriers to climate change adaptation, including insufficient staff and funding, lack of political leadership, backward looking legislative requirements, and uncertainty (Abunnasr et al., 2015;Kiem et al., 2016;Oberlack and Eisenack, 2018;Judd et al., 2023). Uncertainties include future greenhouse gas emissions; the direction, magnitude and intensity of change in response to emissions with large variances in predictions at particular geographic locations (Hallegatte et al., 2012;Shepherd et al., 2018). ...
... Even when attempts are made to include this information in ecological models there is limited data due to funding constraints for long term monitoring programs. Further, the translation of global climate scenarios into meaningful and useful localised hydrological and ecological information for water supply remains a barrier (Kiem et al., 2016). Consequently, probability based decision methods that optimise for one solution will no longer be appropriate (Brugnach et al., 2008;Hallegatte, 2009;Polasky et al., 2011;Maier et al., 2016;Fletcher et al., 2017). ...
Uncertainty can be an impediment to decision making and result in decision paralysis. In environmental flow management, system complexity and natural variability increase uncertainty. Climate change provides further uncertainty and can hinder decision making altogether. Environmental flow managers express reluctance to include climate change adaptation in planning due to large knowledge gaps in hydro-ecological relationships. We applied a hybrid method of hypothetical scenarios and closed ended questions within a survey to investigate ecological trade off decision making behaviours and cognitive processes of environmental flow managers. The scenarios provided were both similar to participants’ past experiences, and others were entirely unprecedented and hence unfamiliar. We found managers were more confident making decisions in situations they are familiar with, and most managers show low levels of confidence in making trade off decisions under uncertain circumstances. When given a choice, the most common response to uncertainty was to gather additional information, however information is often unavailable or inaccessible–either it does not exist, or uncertainties are so great that decisions are deferred. Given future rainfall is likely to be different from the past, environmental flow managers must work to adopt robust decision making frameworks that will increase confidence in decision making by acknowledging uncertainties. This can be done through tools developed to address decision making under deep uncertainty. Adapting these tools and methods to environmental flow management will ensure managers can begin to consider likely, necessary future trade-offs in a more informed, transparent and robust manner and increase confidence in decision making under uncertainty.
... • Governmental and academic stakeholders review climate scenarios to determine if a solution is viable for the longterm and create contingency plans [116]. ...
Purpose of Review
This review (1) describes the intersecting literature on climate change adaptation (CCA) and uncertainty (N= 562), and (2) synthesizes the findings of empirical studies about decision-maker uncertainty (n = 97).
Recent Findings
Uncertainty can be a barrier to adaptation, yet it is most often studied in relation to the scientific process, while uncertainties in people’s decision-making and their impact on CCA are less studied.
Summary
Despite the predominance of scientific uncertainties (52%), we see an upward-trend in studies of decision-making uncertainty (24%), and in combining natural and social sciences approaches (24%). Multiple sources of uncertainty influence CCA decisions besides climate trends, and their saliency and people’s responses vary depending on the role/function of the decision-maker and the timeframe of the decision. Concerns involve situational uncertainties, response options, and their consequences. Decision-makers are more likely to incorporate uncertainties in their adaptation decisions than suppress them or delay action, although the response is sensitive to the type of information sought and timeframes.
... for users in general. Alternatively, Kiem et al (2016) did not focus explicitly on a specific producer when studying the information that water resource managers think they need for adaptation decisions. The services in this mapping were most often produced and/or delivered by a research performing organization (n = 43), brokering organization (n = 11) or a combination of actors or organizations (n = 41). ...
The success of climate services for adaptation to climate change is increasingly studied, but there exists a varying understanding of what climate services are and what makes them successful. This study systematically mapped the breadth and depth of peer-reviewed literature on the subject and synthesized evidence on what we know, don’t know and need to know about successful climate services. The study focusses on services that are based on long-term climate information or aim to inform decision-making on longer time scales and includes papers that inform on success, including evaluation studies, empirical investigations in the factors and practices that influence success, and conceptual discussions on what constitutes success.
Results show that insights on climate service success are scattered and most often originate from western and developed countries. Conceptualizations of success in the literature are diverse and focus on processes for production and use, product characteristics and process elements of the service itself, and/or on contextual factors. Studies that assess the results of climate services tend to focus on evaluating (perceived) usability, though uptake, impacts and outcomes of services are rarely assessed systematically. Frequently reported success factors include brokering functions, user-producer interactions and iterative and flexible development processes. To be successful, services themselves should be contextualized and tailored to the user and its decision-making context. We conclude that whilst context emerges as a critical determinant of success, the configuration of factors and processes leading to success demand further investigation.
... There have been high level discussions on the need to consider climate change in environmental flow objectives, yet the lack of guidance on how to implement this is hindering inclusion (Kiem et al., 2016;Poff 2017). Most existing methods for determining objectives do not sufficiently address the challenges of an uncertain, non stationary future in terms of altered hydrology and ecology. ...
... There are many uncertainties around how species, communities and ecosystems will respond to hydrological change and their vulnerability to climate change which may be restricting the ability of water managers to develop climate ready objectives (Kiem et al.,. 2016;Tonkin et al., 2018). Poff (2017) suggests future environmental flow management needs to include ecological vulnerability assessments (EVAs). EVAs examine the pressures climate change will have on a particular species or taxonomic group and assesses their sensitivity (the degree that a system is affected (adversely or beneficially) by cl ...
Implementing environmental flows has emerged as a major river management tool for addressing the impacts of hydrologic alteration in large river systems. The “natural flow paradigm” has been a central guiding principle for determining important ecohydrological relationships. Yet, climate change and associated changes in rainfall run off relationships, seasonality of flows, disruptions to food webs and species life cycle cues mean these existing relationships will, in many circumstances, become obsolete. Revised thinking around setting ecological objectives is required to ensure environmental management targets are achievable, particularly in regions where water scarcity is predicted to increase. Through this lens “climate ready” targets are those that are robust to changing water availability or incorporate future adaptation options. Future objective setting should be based around the inclusion of changing climate and water availability, and the associated species and ecosystem vulnerabilities, and expected outcomes under different policy and adaptation options. This paper uses south eastern Australia as a case study region to review the extent to which current water management plans include climate considerations and adaptation in objective setting. Results show untested climate adaptation inclusions, and a general lack of acknowledgement of changing hydrological and ecological conditions in existing management plans. In response this paper presents a process for setting objectives so they can be considered “climate ready.”
... Water availability is under threat from climate change impacts influencing changing rainfall patterns and increasing drought intensities [6,7,13]. There are global trends in declining rainfall and increasing drought frequencies and intensities throughout the 21 st Century potentially influencing a decrease in water availability [29]. ...
Effective water resources management and water availability are under threat from multiple sources, including population growth, continuing urbanisation, and climate change. In this context, current water resources management requires a conceptual rethink, which is lacking in the urban water resources management literature. This paper addresses this gap by rethinking urban water resources management from a water-centric perspective. The paper discusses a conceptual rethinking of water resources management towards a water-centric water resources management system underpinned through combining nature-based solutions (NBS), green infrastructure, and water soft path approaches. It is concluded that through adopting a blend of NBS, green infrastructure, and water soft paths, a water-centric water resources management approach focused on achieving sustainable water availability can be developed. It is further concluded that in transitioning to a water-centric focused water resources management approach, water needs to be acknowledged as a key stakeholder in relation to guiding a transition to an effective holistic catchment-wide water-centric water resources management system focused on achieving sustainable water availability.
... Communicating and dealing with uncertainty in the model results, especially for decisionmaking, is daunting (Kiem et al. 2016). In the workshop, this was partly dealt with by presenting the medium of the modelled hydrological outcomes and assigning quantile percentages (according to model agreement) to the range of changes simulated. ...
The Ruhezamyenda catchment in Uganda includes a unique lake, Lake Bunyonyi, and is threatened by increasing social and environmental pressures. The COSERO hydrological model was used to assess the impact of climate change on future surface runoff and evapotranspiration in the Lake Bunyonyi catchment (381 km ² ). The model was forced with an ensemble of CMIP5 global climate model (GCM) simulations for the mid-term future (2041–2070) and for the far future (2071–2100), each with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. In the Ruhezamyenda catchment, compared to 1971–2000, the median of all GCMs (for both RCPs) showed the mean monthly air temperature to increase by approximately 1.5 to 3.0 °C in the mid-term future and by roughly 2.0 to 4.5 °C in the far future. The mean annual precipitation is generally projected to increase, with future changes between − 25 and + 75% (RCP8.5). AET in the Lake Bunyonyi catchment was simulated to increase for the future by approximately + 8 mm/month in the median of all GCMs for RCP8.5 for the far future. The runoff for future periods showed much uncertainty, but with an overall increasing trend. A combination of no-regrets adaptation options in the five categories of: governance; communication and capacity development; water, soil, land management and livelihoods improvement; data management; and research, was identified and validated with stakeholders, who also identified additional adaptation actions based on the model results. This study contributes to improving scientific knowledge on the impacts of climate change on water resources in Uganda with the purpose to support adaptation.
... 2007; Bedsworth and Hanak 2010;Mastrandrea et al. 2010;Archie et al. 2014;Kiem et al. 2015). Top-down approaches attempting to define managers' needs have tried to fill the Binformation-deficit^with more science as prioritized by scientists (Moser and Dilling 2007). ...
Understanding resource managers’ perceptions of climate change, analytic capacity, and current adaptation activities can provide insight into what can help support adaptation processes at the local level. In California, where a major drought currently demonstrates some of the hardships that could be regularly encountered under a changing climate, we present results from a survey of drinking water utilities about the perceived threat, analytic capacity, and adaptation actions related to maintaining water quality in the face of climate change. Among surveyed utilities (n = 259), awareness is high in regard to climate change occurring and its potential impacts on water quality globally, but perceived risk is lower with regard to climate impacts on local drinking water quality. Just over half of surveyed utilities report at least some adaptation activity to date. The top three variables that most strongly correlated with reported adaptation action were (1) perceived risk on global and local water quality, (2) surface water reliance, and (3) provision of other services beyond drinking water. Other tested variables significantly correlated with reported adaptation action were (4) degree of impact from the current drought and (5) communication with climate change experts. Findings highlight that smaller groundwater-reliant utilities may need the most assistance to initiate climate adaptation processes. Trusted information sources most frequently used across respondents were state government agencies, followed by colleagues in the same utilities. The finding that frequently used sources of information are similar across utilities presents a promising opportunity for training and disseminating climate information to assist those systems needing the most support.
Electronic supplementary material
The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1870-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
Climate change has led to increase in the extreme precipitation and temperature fluctuations in Himalayas. In this study the Indus River system of the Himalayas has been selected to understand the changes in few meteorological parameters such as precipitation, temperature and their impact on the changes in sediment budget. The two moisture sources affecting the study
area are SW monsoon and Westerlies with erratic dominance. The increasing trend of the extreme precipitation and temperature in the study area due to changing climate leads to rise in the extreme events like landslide, cloudburst, snow avalanche etc., which ultimately account for the differential erosional activities. The flipping geological and meteorological events have led to
significant transformation in the sediment budget of the Himalayan River systems. Post Industrial scenario, there has been drastic decrease in sediment yield of the Indus River system.
The orography of the Himalayas controls the extreme precipitation to its lower elevation zones. The areas of corresponding elevations are found to be more effected by the extreme events like landslides, debris flow, rock fall, etc. which result into significant sediment washing in different river catchments. The tectonic activity and lithology of the study area also plays a very important role in the erosional activities and the changing river morphology. However, the high elevated Himalayan zones are mainly affected by the glacial erosion and release of trapped sediments which account for drastic rise in sediment budget of the river systems. In addition to aforementioned factors, anthropogenic intervention has led to momentous and enduring
footprints over these natural Himalayan River systems.
Pakistan’s agricultural economy is reliant on the Indus River’s irrigation system, which is fed by the water coming from the great Himalayas-Karakoram Glacier Mountains. Because of hilly terrain areas, the climatic variations have an intense effect on the river flow, especially during the winter and monsoon months. Consequently, significant variations, which are observed annually, result in flooding situations in the monsoon months and reduced flows in the winter season. Thousands of people have lost their lives and massive property destruction has taken place due to disastrous floods that occurred during 2010 and 2016. Past studies have focused on proper water resources and the management of extreme events such as floods and droughts; however, modelling and forecasting based on the various climatic factors and stochastic variations are rare. This paper attempts to forecast Indus River flows using multiple linear regression (MLR), the stochastic time series, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), and its reduced heteroscedasticity model, i.e., SARIMA-GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) methods at the Kalabagh station. The results show that MLR is best over the short-term; SARIMA is better over the long-term, and SARIMA-GARCH may be superior for a very long-term forecast.
