Figure 2 - uploaded by Mawuli Dzakpasu
Content may be subject to copyright.
1. Relationship between the physical climate system, hazard, exposure and vulnerability producing risk. Developed from IPCC (2014).
Source publication
Climate change brings new threats and uncertainties but also opportunities. It challenges us to both mitigate the threats and gain from the opportunities. This project looked specifically at the threats from natural hazards. A large number of these, such as floods, droughts, landslides, and wildfires will be more intense and more frequent in many a...
Similar publications
The Canadian Province of Manitoba has experienced many severe floods and other natural disasters, and in response municipal, provincial, and federal governments have developed various disaster and emergency management (DEM) policies and programs over the years to protect and preserve lives and resources. In this context, the present study examined...
Citations
... Climate change in these eras has led tremendously to an increase in the frequency and severity of climate-related disasters and hazards, posing massive risks to human populations and the environment [1][2][3]. Climate change simply symbolizes longterm changes in the average weather patterns and it incorporates various disruptive impacts, including extreme weather events, sea level rise, droughts and water scarcity, wildfires, melting glaciers, heatwaves, changes in ecosystems, ocean acidification, DOI: http://dx.doi.org /10.5772/intechopen.1004395 ...
... /10.5772/intechopen.1004395 • Heatwaves: Climate change has contributed to the frequency and intensity of heatwaves that have significant impacts on human health and well-being [1]. ...
... • Changes in ecosystems: Many studies showed that climate change has led to huge deviations in ecosystems, including shifts in species distributions, changes in ecosystem services, and increased vulnerability to the hazards [1]. ...
Quantifying hazards and assessing the risks in the era of climate change using Space and Ground-based Earth Observations (SAGEOs) is playing a key role in facilitating the implementation of frameworks and are essential for observing and assessing how risks have changed in recent years, as well as tracking the reduction in the level of exposure of communities to the hazards. SGEOs provide the context, scale, and perspective needed to understand various hazards, such as floods, seismic activities, wildfire, and coastal erosion, and are crucial for informing risk reduction and disaster management efforts. Correspondingly, SAGEOs contribute to the development of early warning systems for climate-related hazards, supporting timely and effective disaster preparedness and response. The integration of SAGEOs supports risk-informed decision-making by providing essential information for vulnerability and exposure mapping, thus informing adaptation planning and the development of climate-resilient strategies. In conclusion, quantifying hazards and assessing the risks of climate change using SAGEOs is vital for understanding, monitoring, and mitigating the impacts of climate-related hazards. These observations provide valuable data for characterizing hazards, developing early warning systems, and informing risk reduction and disaster management efforts, thus playing a critical role in building climate resilience and reducing disaster risks.
... The ECB shows a high correspondence with the actual scale (Tables 2 and 3) and can therefore constitute a solid basis for forecasting impacts of natural events in a multi-hazard territory such as the Canary Islands. However, as risk is also composed of hazard and vulnerability factors (e. g., Bruen and Dzakpasu, 2018;Chen et al., 2004;Fuchs et al., 2012;IPCC, 2014;Lirer et al., 2010;Schneiderbauer and Ehrlich, 2004), further progress needs to be made to complete a comprehensive risk base that allows accurate damage forecasts. The non-inclusion of a vulnerability variable is the main factor of uncertainty in the BCE-based impacts analysis. ...
Oceanic islands are multi-risk territories but statistical aggregation of socioeconomic exposure data is often a constraint for high-resolution risk modelling and hazard prevention. This work presents a downscaling procedure to obtain a complete high-resolution cartographic base on the distribution of main socioeconomic variables in the Canary Islands (Spain). For this purpose, a new dasymetric procedure has been developed based on the combination of cadastral censuses, detailed planimetries and LiDAR altimetry data. The methodology allowed for the construction of an exposure cartographic base (ECB) that comprises population, capital stock, productivity and heritage (cultural and natural) layers, covering the entire archipelago at 2.5 m resolution. The ECB results was tested for accuracy and found to be 90% accurate within a positional range of 50 m. The ECB was then compared with real damages in three recent natural disasters: a volcanic eruption on La Palma in 2021, a wildfire in Gran Canaria in 2019 and a coastal flooding in Tenerife in 2018. The comparison between modelled exposure and actual damage revealed the consistency of the cartographic base for full-damage events and the need to incorporate the vulnerability factor to obtain a more accurate estimate for partial damage events.
... Con ligeras variaciones conceptuales, se acepta que el riesgo se compone de, al menos, tres términos: (1) la peligrosidad o amenaza (hazard), (2) la exposición (exposition) y (3) la vulnerabilidad, susceptibilidad o sensibilidad (vulnerability) (e.g. Bruen et al., 2012;IPCC, 2014;Medina et al., 2014;Vera-Rodríguez y Albarracín-Calderón, 2017;Viner et al., 2020). Y como parte de la vulnerabilidad, o fuera de ella, se viene considerando, cada vez más, un último factor referido a la capacidad adaptativa o de recuperación de los sistemas impactados, lo que se ha denominado 'resiliencia'. ...
... In the last decade, public and governmental concern has resulted in them demanding improved flood warnings (Penning-Rowsell et al., 2000;Handmer, 2001) and that the monetary benefits are recognised (Pappenberger et al., 2015). A recent review of climate change-related natural hazard and disaster vulnerabilities (Bruen and Dzakpasu, 2018) cites predictions of increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events. These will lead to more severe flooding, which become more hazardous as urbanisation forces increasing populations into floodplains. ...
... However, there is a need for a more efficient flood forecasting and warning system for the whole of Ireland (JBA Consulting, 2011). Such a system is in the planning stage and will help to cope with future events predicted to be more severe as a result of climate change (Bruen and Dzakpasu, 2018) and various other factors, including population growth and rapid urbanisation. ...
This report is a response to the growing public and official pressure for Ireland to develop a world class flood forecasting capability to enhance the security of its citizens. It addresses some of the technical and modelling issues that must be resolved to respond to the pressure for an effective flood forecasting service. River flooding is a serious and contentious issue in Ireland, with most of its residential, industrial and transport infrastructure situated near watercourses with low gradients that frequently flood. Although some major structural flood protection schemes have been constructed by the Office of Public Works (OPW) and more are planned, cost–benefit requirements and public/stakeholder considerations are increasing the public pressure for bespoke non-structural solutions and these require operational flood forecasting and warning systems.
A strong case for a national flood forecasting centre has already been made and the Irish Government has set up a flood warning facility, operated by Met Éireann, in collaboration with the OPW. This project has reviewed international practice to inform appropriate technological decisions in the development of such a flood forecasting centre. In the context of the implementation of the EU Floods Directive, which has sparked the development of flood management schemes for the major flood risk areas of Ireland, information on the balance between physical protection and flood warning measures is necessary for cost effective solutions.
In response to the increasing public pressure for non-structural solutions to flood protection, demountable barriers and other temporary arrangements that are mobilised when a flood is forecast have been increasingly incorporated into flood protection schemes in Ireland. These allow normal access to rivers and flood-prone areas when no flood is forecast, but can be mobilised when a flood is expected. For these to be effective, an appropriate and timely warning of a flood event is required to enable flood managers to make decisions with regard to the activation of the demountable defences, blocking of roads and access to high-risk areas, etc. Such warnings must have a sufficient lead time to allow the defences to be erected and must also be reliable so that flood managers can have confidence in the decisions that ensue. This project has examined both the forecast lead time and the reliability of the best available technologies being used [hydrological, hydraulic models, telemetry from gauges, radar and numerical weather forecasting (for areas with rapid hydrological response times)]. This project was carried out in two stages. First, the issues were explored in a stakeholder workshop, which determined the immediate needs and future requirements of a wide range of stakeholders. This was followed by an examination of the capabilities of existing technologies used internationally in Irish conditions to enable them to be considered for implementation in operational warning systems. The project demonstrated selected examples of these technologies in a workshop, which showed the range of possibilities, from the simple to the sophisticated. Thus, the project provides practical, implementation-oriented information on existing and required technical capabilities, tailored, with examples, to the scales and situations typical of Irish rivers. The project implemented a hydrological forecast model for three test catchments of different sizes and with different degrees of data availability. In each, it compared the ability of the model to simulate flows with different sources of precipitation data. This project confirmed that effective flood warning solutions for large rivers are best based on good telemetry of real-time measurements of precipitation, together with the appropriate hydrological and hydraulic models. Although the use of upstream water levels was not assessed in this project, these are also expected to contribute to better forecasts in larger catchments. However, for many of the smaller Irish rivers with shorter lead times, the project shows that a good warning solution must not wait until the precipitation has occurred; it must predict the precipitation in advance and the performance of the warning system depends critically on the ability to make these predictions. Although the project has demonstrated the importance of the terrestrial rain-gauge network, it has also explored the performance and the added value of radar and numerical atmospheric model information for flood warning.
