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• Reclassified ENMs for the present time for Callithrix aurita (A), Callithrix flaviceps (C), and Callithrix kuhlii (E), and for 2050 for Callithrix aurita (B), Callithrix flaviceps (D), and Callithrix kuhlii (F). Maps display areas classified as least suitable in blue, and both moderately suitable and highly suitable ranging from green to yellow.
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Citations
... For the few species native to a specific part of the Atlantic Forest but that were introduced or naturally colonized areas beyond their natural range (e.g., Callithrix jacchus and Callithrix penicillata; Rylands et al. 2009), we incorporated all records within their current distribution. This is because these species have already established populations in their current distribution for several decades (Cerqueira et al. 1998) and as generalist species could be more tolerant to climate change and influence the pattern of future species richness (Braz et al. 2019;Amaral et al. 2023). For the species of the genus Sylvilagus, although a recent revision separated Sylvilagus brasiliensis into three distinct species distributed throughout the BAF (Bonvicino et al. 2015;Ruedas et al. 2017 S. brasiliensis as a unique species because most databases used, such as SpeciesLink and GBIF, are not updated to this taxonomic revision. ...
Biodiversity hotspots, such as the Brazilian Atlantic Forest (BAF), are expected to be more affected by climate change. Three distinct areas of past climatic refugia occur in the BAF, Pernambuco, Bahia, and São Paulo, that will likely be impacted differently by climate change. To estimate the distribution of mammal assemblages in response to climate change, we built individual species distribution models for all medium and large size mammals of the BAF under past (21 kya), current and future projected climatic conditions. We evaluated changes in predicted species distribution, richness and endemism. To understand the evolutionary history of these regions, we also calculated current phylogenetic diversity. We observed high mammal richness in refugia Bahia and São Paulo, and centers of endemism congruent with refugia areas. Phylogenetic diversity revealed different evolutionary histories within each refugium, and that ecological diversity may be preserved even in areas of lower species richness (Pernambuco refugium). Most species contracted its original distribution, and endemicity varied under all future scenarios, being most impacted by a higher increase in mean annual temperature. It was projected that up to 32% of species will lose 95% of their climatic spaces and up to 73% of species will lose half of it by 2100. Our major results highlight the widespread and negative impacts of climate change on mammal distribution. Biodiversity loss due to climate change can be buffered by both reducing deforestation and prompting restoration projects. Yet, we reinforce that the action window to achieve this goal is closing rapidly.
