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This paper analyses the evolution of police recorded crime rates for nine offences (intentional homicide, assault, rape, robbery, theft, vehicle theft, burglary, domestic burglary, and drug offences) over the period 1990–2000 in 16 Western European Countries. The analysis shows that there was an increase in drug and violent offences, while property...
Citations
... This lack of evolution suddenly makes the assumption that criminal behavior may be stable over time relatively rational. The work of Aebi and his colleagues (Aebi, 2004(Aebi, , 2009Aebi et al., 2002Aebi et al., , 2014Aebi & Linde, 2012) examining the evolution of European crime trends over time shows that interpersonal crimes and especially sexual crimes are quite stable over time in contrast to property and drug crimes. Such findings reinforce the idea that the opportunities to commit sexual assault have not changed over time either. ...
Criminological theories and widespread assumptions about crime suggest that the modus operandi involved in sexual crimes should have changed over time given various contextual changes, such as better criminological knowledge (e.g., forensic awareness) as well as improved investigative techniques (e.g., forensic evidence analysis). The aim of this study was to test whether the modus operandi patterns of individuals having committed a sexual assault against female strangers have changed over time during the period of 2003-2017. More specifically, the study has identified changes in the trends of monthly counts and (relative) participations for sexual assaults during the study period in France. The measure of participations-a concept borrowed from the field of criminal career-was used to overcome the inherent limitations associated with this type of data. Results show that despite some significant changes in the modus operandi involved in sexual crimes, overall the modus operandi patterns appear to be fairly stable over time. The findings are discussed in light of their theoretical and practical implications.
... Continuando con el análisis de la salud pública, el consumo de drogas ilegales y el aumento de los crímenes violentos tienen una relación directa. Por ejemplo, Aebi (2004) encuentra que el aumento en el consumo de drogas en Europa esta correlacionado con el incremento de delitos violentos. El incremento puede ser explicado por guerras entre bandas por el control de mercados ilegales. ...
Analyzes the status of intellectual production on labor welfare in latin america to date
... Tonry (2007) je izpostavil, da so vse kulture kaznovanja lokalne, kar posledično izpostavi koncept kaznovanja kot produkt lokalnega okolja (običajno na ravni nacionalnih držav), vključujoč specifičnost političnega, socialnega, kulturnega in zgodovinskega razvoja. 4 Kaznovanje kot koncept je vpeto 1 Prispevek je nastal v okviru projekta Penal policy in Yugoslavia and Slovenia in an integrated Europe perspective (št. IZ-SEZ0_193653/1), ki ga je financirala Nacionalna švicarska organizacija za znanstveno raziskovanje. ...
... Širše družbene spremembe in odsotnost sposobnih varuhov so vplivale na nagel porast vseh oblik kriminalitete (pojav organizirane in gospodarske kriminalitete, korupcija, epidemija drog, propad zdravstvenega sistema, ki je povzročil, da so žrtve fizičnih poškodb pogosteje umrle itd.) v 90. letih v večini držav (Aebi, 2004;Shelley, 2002). Odziv formalnega nadzora je bil nemalokrat počasen oziroma neučinkovit, saj so bile policija in druge institucije kazenskega pravosodja v procesu reform (depolitizacije in profesionalizacije), kar je vplivalo tudi na pripravljenost posameznikov za prijavljanje kaznivih dejanj (mednarodne viktimizacijske študije kažejo manjšo pripravljenost prijave kriminalitete v vzhodnoevropskih državah) (Gruszczyńska, 2004 Krajewski (2014) je opozoril, da so podatki o umorih ustreznejši za primerjavo razširjenosti kriminalitete med državami kot stopnje kriminalitete, saj: 1) je klasifikacija umora podobna v vseh kazenskih zakonodajah, 2) na registracijo umorov ne vpliva pripravljenost posameznikov za prijavo (večina ljudi je pripravljena prijaviti tovrstna kazniva dejanja) in 3) je temno polje pri tovrstni obliki kriminalitete majhno in uradne statistike odražajo realno stanje v družbi. ...
... Začetne poraste stopenj umorov v vzhodnoevropskih državah lahko poleg širših družbenoekonomskih sprememb, ki so omogočile oblikovanje kriminalnih združb in izvajanje umorov v kontekstu organizirane kriminalitete, pripišemo tudi pojavu odvisnikov od prepovedanih drog, ki so se pojavili v vzhodnoevropskih državah v večjem obsegu, in ne nazadnje objavljanju realnih statistik o kriminaliteti. Gledano celostno, so relativno stabilni oziroma upadajoči trendi stopenj umorov v evropskih državah delna posledica: 1) relativno majhnega deleža prebivalstva, ki poseduje strelno orožje (Killias, van Kesteren in Rindlisbacher, 2001) in 2) kakovosti zdravstvenih storitev (Aebi, 2004). Slednje se odraža v večjem deležu poskusov umorov v primerjavi z dokončanimi umori, vendar ne vpliva na stopnjo umorov (uporabljeno v tem prispevku), ki temelji na številu dokončanih umorov in poskusov umorov na 100.000 prebivalcev v izbranem letu. ...
V prispevku se osredotočamo na trende kriminalitete in kaznovanja v evropskih državah. Za potrebe študije smo analizirali podatke o kriminaliteti, obsojenih osebah in zaporskih populacijah v izbranih evropskih državah. Podatke smo pridobili iz Eurostatove podatkovne baze o kriminaliteti, Evropskih zbornikov o kriminalitetnih in pravosodnih statistikah (orig. European sourcebook on crime and criminal justice statistics) in letnih poročil Sveta Evrope o zaporskih populacijah – SPACE I (orig. Statistiques Pénales Annuelles du Conseil de l’Europe). Analiza trendov kriminalitete je pokazala, da se je kriminaliteta povečala v skoraj vseh evropskih državah, medtem ko je stopnja umorov upadla v večini evropskih držav, v drugih državah pa je stagnirala. Trendi kaznovanja kažejo, da se je stopnja obsojenih oseb povečala v številnih evropskih državah, medtem ko sta se stopnja zaprtih oseb in povprečna dolžina kazni povečali v večini evropskih držav. Število na novo sprejetih zaprtih oseb v zapore je upadlo v večini evropskih držav. Ugotovitve potrjujejo predhodne ugotovitve raziskav, da sta trenda kriminalitete in kaznovanja relativno neodvisna drug od drugega. V prispevku smo razpravljali tudi o primernosti kazalnikov, ki najbolje odražajo obseg kriminalitete in kaznovalno naravnanost v evropskih državah. Ugotovili smo, da so stopnja kriminalitete, stopnja zaprtih oseb in dolžina kazni najbolj primerni kazalniki, s katerimi je možno robustneje oceniti obseg kriminalitete in kaznovalno naravnanost kazenskega pravosodja v evropskih državah.
Ključne besede: kriminaliteta, kaznovanje, kazalniki kriminalitete in kaznovanja, stopnje zaprtih oseb, Evropa
... Doğu Bloku'nun çökmesi ile çok sayıda göçmenin ve yoksulluğun ortaya çıktığı Avrupa'da 1990-2000 döneminde uyuşturucu kullanımına dayalı suç oranları sürekli artmıştır. Aynı dönemde mülke saldırı olayları ise önce artış sonra azalış göstermiştir (Aebi, 2004). Dolayısıyla bazı olumsuz sosyal trendler uzun süreli ve yapısal nitelikte, bazıları ise daha geçici, akut nitelikler taşıyabilmektedir. ...
... ABD'nin akabinde, az sayıda da olsa, başka ülkelerde yaşanan düşüşlerin sebeplerinin tespit edilebilmesi için, kriminoloji bilimiyle ilgilenen bazı araştırmacılar birtakım çalışmalar yürütmüştür. Yapılan çalışmalar, Kanada (Zimring, 2006) ve birçok Batı Avrupa ülkesindeki (Aebi, 2004) suç işleme oranlarının, 1990'lı yıllar süresince Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nde gözlemlendiği biçimde bir düşüş gösterdiğini ortaya koymuştur Weiss vd.,2016: 322). Suç ve mağduriyetle ilgili yayınlanan veri kaynakları da suç oranlarında meydana gelen bu düşüşleri ortaya koymaktadır. ...
... A pesar de ello, no hay consenso sobre la concepción universal de la evolución descendente del crimen para los mismos años y países (Killias & Lanfranconi, 2012). En este sentido, los estudios sugieren que en Europa no existe un descenso global de la criminalidad, ya que se han descrito tendencias diferentes en función del tipo de delito (Aebi & Linde, 2010a;, destacando que son los delitos contra la propiedad y los homicidios los que grosso modo han experimentado, desde la mitad de la década de 1990, un declive en este continente (Aebi, 2004;Aebi & Linde, 2010a). ...
Este artículo estudia de manera longitudinal y transnacional la victimización de los robos en domicilio y las agresiones en Europa, a partir de datos de la Encuesta Social Europea desde 2002 hasta 2016. Se investiga cómo evoluciona la victimización de estos delitos de manera global y se compara la evolución y el nivel de victimización entre países europeos, más en concreto, entre Europa Occidental y Europa del Este y Central. En el análisis se ha empleado la estadística descriptiva y análisis geográficos mediante mapas de coropletas. Los resultados reflejan que, aunque la tendencia de victimización es descendente con variaciones, no puede afirmarse que exista un descenso generalizado de los robos en domicilio y las agresiones en todos los países de Europa. En este sentido, los países de Europa del Este y Central muestran un descenso de la victimización continuo y más intenso que los países de Europa Occidental, así como un nivel de victimización menor. Finalmente, dadas las limitaciones de este artículo junto con las críticas metodológicas en el estudio de las tendencias de la delincuencia, se propone que estudios futuros comparen de manera detallada la victimización mediante la recogida de datos de encuestas de victimización a nivel europeo.
... A pesar de ello, no hay consenso sobre la concepción universal de la evolución descendente del crimen para los mismos años y países (Killias & Lanfranconi, 2012). En este sentido, los estudios sugieren que en Europa no existe un descenso global de la criminalidad, ya que se han descrito tendencias diferentes en función del tipo de delito (Aebi & Linde, 2010a;, destacando que son los delitos contra la propiedad y los homicidios los que grosso modo han experimentado, desde la mitad de la década de 1990, un declive en este continente (Aebi, 2004;Aebi & Linde, 2010a). ...
Este artículo estudia de manera longitudinal y transnacional la victimización de los robos en domicilio y las agresiones en Europa, a partir de datos de la Encuesta Social Europea desde 2002 hasta 2016. Se investiga cómo evoluciona la victimización de estos delitos de manera global y se compara la evolución y el nivel de victimización entre países europeos, más en concreto, entre Europa Occidental y Europa del Este y Central. En el análisis se ha empleado la estadística descriptiva y análisis geográficos mediante mapas de coropletas. Los resultados reflejan que, aunque la tendencia de victimización es descendente con variaciones, no puede afirmarse que exista un descenso generalizado de los robos en domicilio y las agresiones en todos los países de Europa. En este sentido, los países de Europa del Este y Central muestran un descenso de la victimización continuo y más intenso que los países de Europa Occidental, así como un nivel de victimización menor. Finalmente, dadas las limitaciones de este artículo junto con las críticas metodológicas en el estudio de las tendencias de la delincuencia, se propone que estudios futuros comparen de manera detallada la victimización mediante la recogida de datos de encuestas de victimización a nivel europeo.
... However, it is worth noting that the official crime data in Hong Kong are regarded as more reliable than those in many other Asian societies due to the Hong Kong adoption of the entire recording system of Britain (Broadhurst et al., 2016). Bearing the limitations of the official data, scholars have to admit that in most societies, the official crime data are the only available crime statistics during a longer time period (Aebi, 2004;Pudney et al., 2000). We face the same challenge since the crime numbers continuously collected by Hong Kong Police are the only crime data of Hong Kong in the past four decades. ...
Although the recent crime drop in Western societies has rejuvenated crime trend studies, little is known about the crime trends and the corresponding explanations in the East. This study aims to fill the gaps by examining different types of offenses in Hong Kong between 1976 and 2017. Specifically, this study tests and evaluates major macro-level theoretical approaches explaining crime trends, including institutional anomie theory, routine activities theory, and deterrence theory. Using
Error Correction Models, our analyses reveal that the strengths of different social institutions are negatively associated with crime rates, showing strong support to institutional anomie theory. The results also partially support routine activities theory by demonstrating that levels of economic development are negatively associated with both violent and property crime rates, and the number of mobile cellular subscriptions is negatively related to homicide rates. Deterrence explanations are mainly supported for property crime. These findings provide theoretical insights on the etiology of crime and also yield important policy suggestions on how to sustain the observed decline in crime rates in modern societies.
... Outside Italy, similar peaks in the homicide rate were observed in Russia after the collapse of the USSR, when gang wars for territorial control (involving bombings, assassinations, drive-by shootings, etc.) became widespread [47,48]. Moreover, in European countries, a homicide peak in the first half of the 1990s has been ascribed to conflict over the control of illegal markets, the consolidation of problematic neighborhoods, and an increase in the recording of violent offences by the police [49]. ...
Aims:
We aimed at analyzing homicide trends and patterns in Italy over the period 1980-2014.
Methods:
We collected data from the Italian Mortality Database (Italian National Institute of Statistics), for the study period. Temporal trends were analyzed using joinpoint regression analysis, with estimated annual percentage change computed for each detected trend. The possible effect of the mafia subculture was examined using an indicator of mafia social penetration. Differences between age classes, genders, geographical regions, and homicide methods were also analyzed.
Results:
The analyses showed an overall reduction in homicides during the study period, including a reduction in homicides by firearm. Further, we found significant differences between homicides involving male and female victims. A peak in male homicides, observed in the early 1990s, was significantly associated with mafia penetration.
Conclusions:
The overall reduction in homicides can be interpreted as an expression of a "civilizing process."
... The several events that take place worldwide concerning the economy, political and social life, activated a motion against the security order and particularly the European security order (Carr 1996, Sperling and Kirchner 1997, Hebenton and Spencer 1999. As analysed by Aebi (2004), crime opportunities are strongly affected by numerous social and economic factors. ...
... As identified in the literature review, the reliability of official crime statistics and the factors influencing criminal acts may be questioned (Buonanno et al. 2014), while the willingness of victims to report crime, the administrative procedures, the changes in the recording practises and definitions may also account for the unstable tendencies of crime rates (Cook and Khmilevska 2005). However, a cautious approach through descriptive and inferential examination has been accepted by many researchers in this field (Aebi 2004, Dills et al. 2008, Goldberger and Rosenfeld 2009. ...
... In an effort to get insights in the crime levels in Cyprus, the analysis of this study is based on the official Cyprus Police statistics, while reviewing publications in key areas of criminology. The necessity of police statistics for analysing and comparing crime trends over time, as long as recording methodologies and legal definitions remain constant, is recognised (Aebi 2004). Police data used in this project refer to the years from 2003 onwards, since previously there was a significant change in the crime recording practices within Cyprus Police. ...
