Table 4 - uploaded by Stephanie L Boone
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... results could be a symptom of estimating the interval effect with few observations. Table 4 presents the median, 85th percentile and maximum revision, expressed in per- cent, between spans in estimates of levels over all of the possible months for each series. Table 5 presents median, 85th percentile and maximum difference in percentage over-the-month changes estimated for each of the different spans. ...
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Citations
Many statistics’ offices publish the data which they produce by getting rid of both seasonal and calendar effects. In this data, calendar effects are significantly observed in the national accounts. However, considering the literature in Turkey, it is remarkable that these particular impacts have not been analysed in detail. In this study, we discuss the types of calender effects, how their associated variables are generated, and construction as well as the estimation of the variable-added-model. Then we highlight the reliability of the final estimated model, significance tests of relavant coefficients of variables, and the elimination of calendar effects in case that they are statistically significant in the estimated modelling. As application the series of national accounts (GSYH and sub-components) are selected and from the evaluation of results it is found that these effects cause a considerable difference on the growth rate, rather than levels, of the series.
La plupart des indicateurs économiques sont liés, directement ou indirectement, à une activité journalière observée et cumulée chaque mois ou chaque trimestre. Dans ce cas, le nombre et le type de jours, qui varient d'un mois à l'autre d'une façon quasi déterministe, peuvent expliquer des mouvements de court-terme dans les séries. Ainsi, un samedi de plus dans le mois peut augmenter de façon importante le chiffre d'affaire des commerces de détail. A part la composition en jours des mois, d'autres effets comme les jours fériés civils ou les fêtes religieuses peuvent affecter les séries économiques. Le présent travail présente de façon détaillée les méthodes et modèles habituellement utilisés pour corriger des différents effets de calendrier. Ces modèles sont ensuite appliqués aux séries économiques tunisiennes ce qui permet de vérifier et de mesurer l'impact de certaines fêtes religieuses et civiles.
