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Probability of ice (p) and its standard deviation (SD) in southern Baltic coastal lagoons (1950/51-2019/20).
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The relationship between air temperature (mainly winter, December-March) in Świnoujście, Gdynia, and Elbląg and ice parameters (dates of the first ice and disappearance of the last ice, the length of the ice season, number of days with ice, maximum ice height) of southern Baltic coastal lagoons (Szczecin, Puck, and Vistula) was investigated. Trends...
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Context 1
... occurrence probability (p) increases toward the east. For Szczecin Lagoon, p equals 0.900, for Puck Lagoon p = 0.943, and for Vistula Lagoon p = 0.986 (Table 3). The standard deviation of ice occurrence probability (SD) is higher in the western part of the study area (Szczecin Lagoon, 0.036) than in the east (Vistula Lagoon, 0.014). ...Citations
... This increase occurred at a rate of approximately 2 cm per decade (Jakusik et al., 2010;Richter et al., 2012;Wolski, 2017). The ice cover plays an important role in the formation and intensity of waves (Herman et al., 2011;Herman, 2021;Girjatowicz and Ś wiątek, 2021;Cieślikiewicz and Herman, 2003), but the southern Baltic Sea is an ice-free area, it appeared ephemerally and only covered semi-closed water areas, such as the Puck Lagoon (Vihma and Haapala, 2009;Zalewska (ed.), 2024). Increasing contemporary climate change is observed not only in the increase in temperature but also in the increase in global average sea level, the number of natural disasters such as storm surges and floods, the number of which has doubled in the last twenty years, i.e. 2001, compared to the preceding twenty years, i.e. 1980-2000(Ali and Thakkar, 2023 Research covering geomorphological changes in the coastal zone is crucial for assessing the threat to the coastal zone related to storm conditions. ...
... It occupies an area of 687 km 2 , with a volume of 2.5 km 3 , and its shoreline is 243 km long (Majewski 1980). due to its very shallow depth combined with a relatively large area, the Szczecin Lagoon is characterised by a high lake exposure index value, defined as a ratio of the basin area to its average depth, equal to 191 km 2 m −1 (Girjatowicz, Świątek 2021). This results in a rapid rate of water cooling (in reaction to air temperature change) and the formation of ice phenomena. ...
... The ongoing climate change, manifested for instance by increased wind velocity and frequent alternations of positive and negative air temperatures, influences the high variability and dynamics of ice phenomena (cf. Jevrejeva et al. 2004, Livingstone et al. 2009, Sztobryn et al. 2012, Haapala et al. 2015, Girjatowicz, Świątek 2021. A given winter may witness several periods of ice phenomena occurrence on the lagoons, for instance, six on the Vistula Lagoon (Łazarenko, Majewski 1975) and up to eight uninterrupted series of days with ice on the Szczecin Lagoon (Girjatowicz, Świątek 2020). ...
girjatowicz j.P., Świątek M., łabuz T.A., 2024. The range of ice thrusts and ice piles as reflected by ice scars on trees growing on the shores of coastal lagoons: The case of the Szczecin Lagoon. Quaestiones Geographicae 43(1), Bogucki Wydawnictwo Naukowe, Poznań, pp. 93-110. 11 figs, 2 tables. abstract: We studied the phenomena associated with the thrusting of ice onto the shore of the Szczecin Lagoon based on the occurrence of tree ice scars. The measurements concerned mostly the maximum height, length and width of ice scars on trees, and the distance of these trees from the shore in the period 2017-2022. It was observed that sheets of ice advanced up to 64 m inland, and piled to form hummocks reaching up to 4.3 m above the water level. These maximum values occurred mostly on eastern shores, which is where the highest numbers of damaged and broken trees were observed. This should be associated with the strongest and most frequently occurring wind blowing from the western direction in the winter-spring period. To the contrary, the lowest number of damaged trees were observed on the western shore. This is due not only to the lower frequency of wind blowing from the east, and the associated cooling (Ta < 0°C) and ice cover stabilization, but also due to the presence of extensive reed belts. Our results enable an indirect insight into the ice phenomena dynamics, especially in areas lacking systematic ice observations. Similar conclusions may be extended for all the sheltered basins as lakes or lagoons.
... This increase occurred at a rate of approximately 2 cm per decade (Jakusik et al., 2010;Richter et al., 2012;Wolski, 2017). The ice cover plays an important role in the formation and intensity of waves (Herman et al., 2011;Herman, 2021;Girjatowicz and Ś wiątek, 2021;Cieślikiewicz and Herman, 2003), but the southern Baltic Sea is an ice-free area, it appeared ephemerally and only covered semi-closed water areas, such as the Puck Lagoon (Vihma and Haapala, 2009;Zalewska (ed.), 2024). Increasing contemporary climate change is observed not only in the increase in temperature but also in the increase in global average sea level, the number of natural disasters such as storm surges and floods, the number of which has doubled in the last twenty years, i.e. 2001, compared to the preceding twenty years, i.e. 1980-2000(Ali and Thakkar, 2023 Research covering geomorphological changes in the coastal zone is crucial for assessing the threat to the coastal zone related to storm conditions. ...
The main purpose of the research was to develop appropriate tools for forecasting the effects of storms. The use of the high-resolution SWAN wave model powered by AROME wind fields to couple it with the SWANOneSed sediment transport model and a model using the Ruggiero formula, predicting the extent of the flooded shore, allowed the development of reliable tools for forecasting the effects of storms. Validation using qualitative analysis showed that the results obtained from the coupled SWANOneSed model are characterized by high consistency in intensification and direction of changes. The model using the Ruggiero formula obtained a high value of the correlation coefficient, i.e. 0.970 and 0.992 for the Satbałtyk-Xbeach model data, based on the Hunt&Mase formula, and the high-resolution Pleiades Neo satellite data, respectively. By combining models from the SWAN family, i.e. the SWAN and SWANOneSed wave model and a model using the Ruggiero formula, it was possible to obtain reliable and compatible tools enabling an uninterrupted and synchronized operational process of generating forecasts of storm effects.
... The number of days with subzero temperatures in a year increases toward the east (Schönwiese and Rapp, 1997). In the period 1950/51 -2019/20 a clear increase in ice parameter values from the west to the east was also observed in coastal lagoons of the southern Baltic Sea (Girjatowicz and Świątek, 2021). In Szczecin and Vistula lagoons, the average number of days with ice was respectively 51 and 80; the ice season duration was 64 and 94 days, and the annual maximum ice thickness was 17 and 28 cm. ...
... There are also papers that characterize ice parameters, links between these parameters, and the frequency of ice phenomena occurrences (Girjatowicz, 2003a). Relationships between T and ice conditions from a forecasting perspective were presented in papers by Pasławski (1982) and Marszelewski and Skowron (2006), and for coastal lagoons -by Girjatowicz and Świątek (2021). As in the case of coastal lakes, a distinct acceleration in the mildening of ice conditions on the coastal lagoons was observed in the last two decades . ...
Shallow, lagoonal coastal lakes of the Southern Baltic are exceptionally susceptible to atmospheric factors. This work examines the influence of winter air temperatures in Ustka on ice parameters (dates of first ice occurrence and last ice disappearance, ice season duration, number of days with ice, and maximum ice thickness) on Southern Baltic coastal lakes (Jamno, Bukowo, Gardno, Łebsko), and trends displayed by changes in these parameters over the period spanning 1960/61-2019/20. The research data was retrieved from the archives of Institute of Meteorology and Water Management – National Research Institute. As a first step of the analysis, we investigated the statistical relationships in spatial and temporal variations in winter air temperature and coastal lake ice parameters. Correlation and regression method was employed to determine the influence of air temperature on coastal lake ice conditions. Correlation and determination coefficients were calculated, and linear regression equations were determined. The statistical significance of the observed relationships was assessed using Fisher-Snedecor test. Additionally, linear trend models were constructed. Our analysis indicates that from 1960/61 to 2019/20, the average rate of increase in winter temperature (December-March) in Ustka equalled 0.04°C ⋅year-1. The correlation coefficients for air temperature versus ice parameters were highly statistically significant (p<0.001). The strongest relationships (with correlation coefficients below -0.90) occurred between air temperature and number of days with ice. Ice season duration and number of days with ice are both closely linked with last ice disappearance date and ice thickness. Our analysis shows that a 1°C increase in average seasonal air temperature will result in the number of days with ice on the studied coastal lakes becoming reduced by 16-17 days. All trends in ice parameters indicate a mildening of ice conditions. Most of the assessed trends are statistically significant. The strongest trends were observed for ice season duration, and indicate its shortening toward the east, from 0.66 day ⋅year-1 (Lake Jamno) to 1.16 day ⋅year-1 (Lake Łebsko). All correlation coefficients for ice trends were found to increase eastward, which could be explained by an increasing influence of the warming climate over the Southern Baltic in this direction. The strong relationships between air temperature and Southern Baltic coastal lake ice parameters, and the determined rate of changes may have a significance for forecasting, as the shifting dates of ice formation and disappearance on lakes are highly important for the lake hydrodynamics, and the functioning of aquatic ecosystems.
... In the vicinity of the Szczecin Lagoon, the ice occurrence period lasts on average from late December to early March. Ice phenomena occurs almost every year, on average for 51 days [61]. The ice cover formed in winter is broken by waves, water level changes, and shipping. ...
... Despite the considerable height of the storm surge, the alarm water level remained exceeded for only 8 h. [61]. The ice cover formed in winter is broken by waves, water level changes, and shipping. ...
The Odra River mouth area is a region of the Southern Baltic coastal zone especially prone to the influence of storm surges. In the present study, the height and extent of the Baltic storm surges, and temporal offsets of the respective maximum water level occurrences in the Odra River mouth area were explored using cross-correlation, cluster analysis and principal component analysis. The analyses were based on hourly water level readings retrieved from water gauging stations located along the lower Odra reaches and at the coasts of the Szczecin Lagoon and the Pomeranian Bay during storm surge years 2008/2009–2019/2020. The analysis of mutual relationships between water levels during storm surges indicated that the extent of marine influence on the lower Odra River and within the Szczecin Lagoon was variable during the studied surge events, and dependent on meteorological conditions (the strongest during the sustained occurrence of wind blowing from the northern sector), discharge from the Odra River catchment (the strongest at low discharge), ice conditions on the lower Odra (suppressing the storm surge propagation upstream), and general sea level in the Pomeranian Bay (stronger at high sea levels). The strongest correlation between sea levels at Świnoujście and water levels in the Szczecin Lagoon and the lower Odra was found at a 6–7 h offset. The extent of storm surges usually reached 100 km up the lower Odra channels, less frequently reaching 130 km away from the sea.
We analyse the cumulative impacts of climate change in a complex basin–lagoon–sea system continuum, which covers the Nemunas river basin, Curonian Lagoon, and the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea. A unique, state-of-the-art coupled modelling system was developed using hydrological and hydrodynamic models. The results of four regional downscaled models from the Rossby Centre high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model have been bias-corrected using in situ measurements and were used as forcing to assess the changes that the continuum will undergo until the end of this century. Results show that the Curonian Lagoon will be subjected to higher river discharges that in turn increase the outgoing fluxes into the Baltic Sea. Through these higher fluxes, both the water residence time and saltwater intrusion into the lagoon event frequency will decrease. Most of these changes will be more pronounced in the northern part of the lagoon, which is more likely to be influenced by the variations in the Nemunas river discharge. Its delta area may be susceptible to flooding as a result of the elevated discharge during winter. The southern part of the lagoon will experience lesser changes. While water temperatures in the entire lagoon and the southeastern Baltic Sea will steadily increase and salinity will decrease, the foreseen changes in the physical characteristics will not cause significant shifts in the ecosystem functioning but may affect the nutrient retention capacity. However, some ecosystem services such as ice fishing are expected to vanish completely due to the loss of ice cover.
We analyse the cumulative impacts of climate change in a complex basin-lagoon-sea system continuum, which covers the Nemunas River basin, Curonian Lagoon, and the southeastern part of the Baltic Sea. A unique state-of-the-art coupled modelling system, consisting of hydrological and hydrodynamic models, has been developed and used for this purpose. Results of four regional downscaled models from the Rossby Centre high-resolution regional atmospheric climate model have been bias-corrected using in situ measurements, and were used as forcing to assess the changes that the continuum 15 will undergo until the end of this century. Results show that the Curonian Lagoon will be subjected to higher river discharges that in turn increase the outgoing fluxes into the Baltic Sea. Through these higher fluxes, both the water residence time and saltwater intrusion event frequency will decrease. Most of these changes will be more pronounced in the northern part of the lagoon, which is more likely to be influenced by the variations in the Nemunas River discharge. The southern part of the lagoon will experience lesser changes. 20 Water temperatures in the entire lagoon and the southeastern Baltic Sea will steadily increase, and salinity values will decrease. However, the foreseen changes in physical characteristics are not of the scale suggesting significant shifts in the ecosystem functioning, but are expected to manifest in some quantitative alterations in the nutrient retention capacity. However, some ecosystem services such as ice fishing are expected to vanish completely due to the loss of ice cover.
