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Priority areas for the conservation of the red-billed Curassow Crax blumenbachii in our 'best-' and 'worst-case' PVA scenarios. Numbers correspond to the forest patch ID column shown in Table 3. Forest patches with extant native populations: 1 ¼ one of the forest patches within Conduru State Park; 2 ¼ Michelin Ecological Reserve; 3 ¼ Capit~ ao Private Reserve/Conduru State Park; 4 ¼ Una Biological Reserve; 5 ¼ Vale Natural Reserve; 6 ¼ Pau Brasil National Park; 7 ¼ Sooretama Biological Reserve; 8 ¼ Descobrimento National Park. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the Web version of this article.)
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Applicability of modeling tools to tackle conservation problems is key for conservation planning. However, modeling papers regarding real-world conservation issues are scarce. Here, we combined two modeling tools to identify priority areas in the Brazilian Atlantic
Forest, focusing on the last large-bodied frugivorous bird in the region, the red-bi...
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... radius (see Appendix section A2.5 for further details on site selection criteria). Thus, 17 forest patches were prioritized, eight of which were selected as priority areas for intensified law enforcement and nine as priority areas for reintroductions (Fig. 3, Table 3). The top priority forest patches holding extant populations are all located in Bahia, as well as the largest forest patches for reintroduction (Fig. 3, Table 3). The best candidate landscape for reintroducing curassow populations is in the state of Rio de Janeiro (ID 14 - Fig. 3, Table 3), which provided the largest amount of ...
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... criteria). Thus, 17 forest patches were prioritized, eight of which were selected as priority areas for intensified law enforcement and nine as priority areas for reintroductions (Fig. 3, Table 3). The top priority forest patches holding extant populations are all located in Bahia, as well as the largest forest patches for reintroduction (Fig. 3, Table 3). The best candidate landscape for reintroducing curassow populations is in the state of Rio de Janeiro (ID 14 - Fig. 3, Table 3), which provided the largest amount of forest cover within a 12-km buffer radius (57 020 ha), considering both the target and surrounding forest patches (Fig. 3, Table 3 and Appendix section A2.5 for ...
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... and nine as priority areas for reintroductions (Fig. 3, Table 3). The top priority forest patches holding extant populations are all located in Bahia, as well as the largest forest patches for reintroduction (Fig. 3, Table 3). The best candidate landscape for reintroducing curassow populations is in the state of Rio de Janeiro (ID 14 - Fig. 3, Table 3), which provided the largest amount of forest cover within a 12-km buffer radius (57 020 ha), considering both the target and surrounding forest patches (Fig. 3, Table 3 and Appendix section A2.5 for further ...
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... as the largest forest patches for reintroduction (Fig. 3, Table 3). The best candidate landscape for reintroducing curassow populations is in the state of Rio de Janeiro (ID 14 - Fig. 3, Table 3), which provided the largest amount of forest cover within a 12-km buffer radius (57 020 ha), considering both the target and surrounding forest patches (Fig. 3, Table 3 and Appendix section A2.5 for further ...
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... the eight priority areas that currently hold remaining populations of red-billed curassows, seven are strictly protected and one is part of a multiple-use protected area (APA, an acronym for Environmental Protected Area), a private landholding within the Michelin Ecological Reserve (ID 02, Fig. 3 and Table 3). Although APAs often overlap private landholdings and fail to enforce environmental legislation (de Marques et al., 2016), this 3711-ha reserve is one of the few exceptions, safeguarding a curassow population, which is regularly monitored by researchers, reserve staff and park rangers (Flesher and Laufer, 2013;Lima et al., ...
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... and Laufer, 2013;Lima et al., 2008). However, as our PVA analysis shows, this population would likely have been extirpated had it been exposed to hunters because of its modest reserve size (Table 3). Forest patches with similar size to Michelin (e.g. ID 01) continue to be vulnerable to human disturbance, so we ranked them as top priorities (Fig. 3, Table 3). ...
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... This game bird is already locally extinct in several sites that have experienced high levels of hunting pressure, such as Monte Pascoal National Park, in Bahia ( Alvarez and Develey, 2010). According to our criteria, this is the second largest area prioritized for reintroduction followed by intensified law enforcement to suppress hunting (ID 10, Fig. 3, Table 3), but conflicts therein between indigenous peoples and biodiversity conservation continue to date (Redford, ...
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... best landscape for reintroductions of captive-bred red-billed curassows is in the State of Rio de Janeiro (site ID 14 - Fig. 3, Table 3). This region provides excellent landscape connectivity ( Ribeiro et al., 2009) and already holds a reintroduced captive-bred population ( Bernardo and Locke, 2014). Areas surrounding the potential range of reintroduced curassows need to be identified and surveyed by researchers before any reintroduction attempt, particularly ...
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... could play an essential role in the conservation of curassows, particularly in the northern portion of the species distribution (ICMBio, 2017b). These areas increase levels of connectivity in landscape structure and severely restrict public access, resulting in lower hunting pressure. Two priority areas for reintroduction (ID 13 and ID 15, Fig. 3 and Table 3) are privately owned, without any federal or state protection. The identification of both priority areas is related to the action number 2.4 contained in the species Action Plan, which states that landowners should be stimulated to conserve forest patches within their properties through RPPNs (IBAMA, ...
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The blue-billed curassow Crax alberti is an endemic Colombian species categorized as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List because of the effects of hunting and habitat loss. Conservation and management actions are required to ensure its persistence in the forest remnants across its range. We conducted a population viability analysis for a pop...
Applicability of modeling tools to tackle conservation problems is key for conservation planning. However, modeling papers regarding real-world conservation issues are scarce. Here, we combined two modeling tools to identify priority areas in the Brazilian Atlantic
Forest, focusing on the last large-bodied frugivorous bird in the region, the red-bi...
Citations
... Nowadays, this species is listed as an endangered species in the world, but your size and global relevance is critical as fruit disperser in the Atlantic Forest (BirdLife International, 2016). Considering that it is necessary to have at least 138 animals and forest fragments with 9500 ha of size to support a viable population of this species (Bonfim et al., 2019), and even the RPPN Fazenda Macedônia is a small forest fragment to guarantee this, all the landscape surrounding, including the RPPN, are definitely relevant to the maintenance of the Cracidae species in this region. Also, our results reinforce the importance of private protected areas for the survival and reproduction of these endangered birds (IBAMA, 2008). ...
The Atlantic Forest is a threatened biodiversity hotspot. Anthropogenic and environmental factors affect this biodiversity, including floristics and, consequently, the seed dispersal syndrome. The objective was to evaluate the influence of environmental factors on floristic composition, seed dispersal syndrome and potential for wild fauna refuge, especially birds of the Cracidae family, in a Private Reserve of Natural Heritage (RPPN) in the Atlantic Forest. The study was carried out in a forest fragment of 631 ha in the RPPN Fazenda Macedônia in Ipaba, Minas Gerais, Brazil. Twenty-three plots (10 m x 50 m) were inventoried at three sampling levels with the plots being selectively distributed, considering the different geoenvironments. Environmental factors were divided into edaphic (soil chemical and physical) and landscape (altitude, slope, terrain exposure and edge distance) variables. Species composition and plot groupings by smallest dissimilarity were calculated. The dispersal syndrome and the type of zoochoric dispersal were determined for tree species. The species dispersed by birds had records of occurrence in the verified cracid diet. Two hundred and forty-nine species from 138 genera and 46 tree families were recorded. The dissimilarity between plots ranged from 0.4 to 1.0 forming four groups. Floristic composition was influenced by soil variables (soil pH, available potassium and magnesium, exchangeable aluminum, effective and potential CEC, remaining phosphorus, organic matter and silt) and landscape (altitude). The zoochoric dispersal syndrome was the most frequent, with ornithochory (68.09%) being the most important within this group. In the RRPN, 35 species of tree were recorded in the cracids diet. Tree species composition of varied with edaphic variables and with altitude. The wide distribution of species recorded in cracid diets reaffirms the fragment's potential for the establishment and conservation of these birds, highlighting the importance of creating and protecting private conservation areas, such as the RPPN Fazenda Macedônia and corridors among all forest private areas belonging to the CENIBRA company in that landscape.
... Also, in a fragmented landscape both large and small fragments can be important for maintaining regional assemblage diversity (Anjos et al. 2011;Bhakti et al. 2018). These observations illustrated the importance of understanding how to maintain diversity in fragmented landscapes at levels comparable to that in continuous forests (Paese et al. 2010;Banks-Leite et al. 2014;Bonfim et al. 2019). Perhaps surprisingly, controlling for the size of habitats, ecological responses to habitat fragmentation may often be positive (Fahrig 2017). ...
While bird diversity in the Atlantic Forest can be considered well-known, how the communities have been affected by deforestation and habitat fragmentation is not. We studied birds in 10 forest fragments of distinct sizes (all originally within the Atlantic Forest) in southern Bahia. In 5,391 bird encounters, we found 251 species, with 46 endemics and eight considered globally vulnerable or endangered. We also compiled a list of the 380 species that should comprise the expected regional assemblage, and found that only 66% of these species were present in all the fragments combined. Only 9% of all observed species were found in all fragments. The largest fragment (700 ha) had the greatest number of endemic species (40), and seven threatened species. All fragments had some conservation-important species (some were found in one or a few fragments), but no fragment included them all. Fragments shared 10% of endemic species, but overall, the contingent of endemics was unique in each fragment. Finally, most functional traits of bird assemblages decreased with increasing fragment size. Neither species richness nor similarity correlated with fragment size or distance between fragments, and unknown, non-random factors probably influence the likelihood of species survival in each fragment. Thus, to ensure the persistence of threatened species, as well as maintain the most common species, conservation management decisions should include all fragments together because no single fragment is most representative of the local community.
... Beyond the concern about habitat loss and climate change as the main drivers of bird extinction, hunting is a strong pressure currently threatening C. fasciolata (BirdLife International, 2016)also observed in other cracids (Bonfim et al., 2018;Brooks, 2006;Rios et al., 2021). In addition, land-use changes at local scale (not evaluated in this study), such as patch isolation and edge effects, strongly threaten many species, as well as C. fasciolata (BirdLife International, 2016), reducing habitat connectivity and resource acquisition, and changing microhabitat conditions (Andrén, 1994;Ewers & Banks-Leite, 2013;Lees & Peres, 2009). ...
Climate and land‐use changes are expected to negatively affect many species and ecological processes, leading to biodiversity loss. However, some species can adapt to these changes. Wide‐ranging species are expected to be less impacted by such changes, but they can occur in different domains with contrasting environmental conditions, resulting in different conservation statuses along their range. To understand whether a species will overall benefit or lose with global change, we evaluated the responses of a wide‐ranging but a vulnerable bird ( Crax fasciolata ) to separate and combined effects of climate and land‐use changes under different environmental policies in Brazil. Using ecological niche modeling and a land‐use model within the Brazilian political context, we quantified climatic, habitat, and environmental suitability for Crax fasciolata under historical (2000) and future (2050) scenarios. Our findings showed that environmental suitability can increase for Crax fasciolata in Brazil in future, but these effects vary according to the domain and the specific future scenario considered. Climatically suitable areas will increase in all scenarios, and those environmental scenarios that include better habitat conditions will provide more environmentally suitable areas for Crax fasciolata . However, this increase comes from newly suitable areas in the Atlantic Forest and the Amazon, while the Pantanal, the Caatinga, and the Cerrado will lose environmental suitability due to native vegetation loss. Despite the availability of these new areas, reduced landscape permeability may hinder Crax fasciolata from reaching them. This reinforces the urgent call for public policies for native vegetation protection, reforestation, and effective deforestation control.
Abstract in Portuguese is available with online material
... Selecting areas for biodiversity conservation is an important step for decision-makers to redirect efforts and resources to the best possible strategy. There are several previously established methods to determine priority areas (Fernandes et al. 2014;Loyola et al. 2014;Golunski et al. 2015) for conservation, sustainable use, and distribution of the benefits of the Brazilian biodiversity, which mainly use population viability analyses and species distribution modeling (Bonfim et al. 2019). ...
... Han et al. (2019) used this method to select sites for the conservation of 40 endangered flora species in the region of the Sanjiangyuan National Nature Reserve in China. Bonfim et al. (2019) established priority areas for conservation based on the probable occurrence of a bird species in a coastal region of the Atlantic Forest in Brazil. Both studies considered aspects related to human intervention but disregarded the specific characteristics of urbanized environments. ...
Key message
We found that SASCI reconciles the natural and anthropic contexts with the definition of the best places for conservation, and can be applied at different scales.
Abstract
The creation, management, and enrichment of protected areas are important strategies for the conservation of endangered species, especially in places more susceptible to biodiversity loss. However, there are few methodologies to establish priority areas for biodiversity conservation in urban areas. The objective of this study was to create the Selection of Areas for Species Conservation Index (SASCI) to verify which protected green areas in cities have more favorable environmental conditions for endangered species conservation. Based on the Forest Conservation Priority Index (FCPI), the SASCI can be applied to any species in any city. Whereas the FCPI does not consider the potential distribution of the species of interest and provides a generic overview of the best green areas for conservation without the necessary specificities for the conservation of a given species, the SASCI considers important landscape metrics in urban environments, in addition to potential distribution modeling. To elaborate the SASCI equation, weights were attributed to the landscape metrics and areas of medium and high potential distribution. The endangered species Ocotea odorifera was used as an example of the application of SASCI. Our index was instrumental in determining the best areas for the conservation of the species in Curitiba, Brazil. Thirty-one green areas were classified on a scale of three priority levels, depending on the results calculated with the SASCI.
... It is necessary to reconcile continuous enforcement of hunting and burning regulations. Results of studies carried out with cracids show that control of hunting is a determining factor for the conservation of species in PAs (Barrio 2011; Bonfim et al., 2019). Hunting and illegal trade expose psittacids to the risk of extinction (Thiollay, 2005), which was the case for C. spixii (Barros et al., 2012). ...
... Its dispersion is carried out exclusively by zoochory, mainly by wild ungulates (e.g., Mazama gouazoubira and Pecari tajacu), which are also under pressure due to historical hunting in the Caatinga (Mertens et al., 2017). Although we focused on the reintroduction of only one species, it is essential to take into account the emblematic potential of C. spixii for consolidating measures to mitigate environmental impacts with application and oversight of environmental laws, in addition to support for the implementation and maintenance of connected integral protection areas in the Caatinga (Bonfim et al., 2019). ...
The reintroduction of a species that is extinct in the wild demands caution because reintroduction locations may be associated with threats, such as hunting, poor‐quality habitat, and climate change. This is the case for Cyanopsitta spixii (Spix's Macaw), which has been extinct in the wild since 2000. The few living individuals were created in captivity and will be used in a reintroduction project within the species’ original distribution area, the Caatinga domain (Brazil). Because the occurrence records for this bird are old and inaccurate, we investigated the current and future environmental suitability of the 14 plant species used by C. spixii as resource. These plants are key elements for the long‐term reestablishment of the species in the wild, so the use of models helps in the assessment of the effects of climate change on the availability of these resources for the species and informs selection of the best places for reintroduction. We based our models of environmental suitability on 19 bioclimatic variables and nine physical soil and topography variables. Climate projections were created for the present and for the year 2070 with an optimistic (SSP2‐4.5) and a pessimistic (SSP5‐8.5) climate scenario. Both future climate scenarios lead to a reduction in area of environmental suitability that overlapped for all the plant species: 33% reduction for SSP2‐4.5 and 63% reduction for SSP5‐8.5. If our projections materialize, climate change could thus affect the distribution of key resources, and the maintenance of C. spixii would depend on restoration of degraded areas, especially riparian forests, and the preservation of already existing natural areas. The Caatinga domain is very threatened by habitat loss and, for the success of this reintroduction project, the parties involved must act to protect the species and the resources it uses.
... It is necessary to reconcile continuous enforcement of hunting and burning regulations. Results of studies carried out with cracids show that control of hunting is a determining factor for the conservation of species in PAs (Barrio 2011; Bonfim et al., 2019). Hunting and illegal trade expose psittacids to the risk of extinction (Thiollay, 2005), which was the case for C. spixii (Barros et al., 2012). ...
... Its dispersion is carried out exclusively by zoochory, mainly by wild ungulates (e.g., Mazama gouazoubira and Pecari tajacu), which are also under pressure due to historical hunting in the Caatinga (Mertens et al., 2017). Although we focused on the reintroduction of only one species, it is essential to take into account the emblematic potential of C. spixii for consolidating measures to mitigate environmental impacts with application and oversight of environmental laws, in addition to support for the implementation and maintenance of connected integral protection areas in the Caatinga (Bonfim et al., 2019). ...
Article impact statement Threats due to climate change may affect the suitabil-ity of areas for reintroduced species. Abstract The reintroduction of a species that is extinct in the wild demands caution because reintro-duction locations may be associated with threats, such as hunting, poor-quality habitat, and climate change. This is the case for Cyanopsitta spixii (Spix's Macaw), which has been extinct in the wild since 2000. The few living individuals were created in captivity and will be used in a reintroduction project within the species' original distribution area, the Caatinga domain (Brazil). Because the occurrence records for this bird are old and inaccurate, we investigated the current and future environmental suitability of the 14 plant species used by C. spixii as resource. These plants are key elements for the long-term reestablishment of the species in the wild, so the use of models helps in the assessment of the effects of climate change on the availability of these resources for the species and informs selection of the best places for reintroduction. We based our models of environmental suitability on 19 bioclimatic variables and nine physical soil and topography variables. Climate projections were created for the present and for the year 2070 with an optimistic (SSP2-4.5) and a pessimistic (SSP5-8.5) climate scenario. Both future climate scenarios lead to a reduction in area of environmental suitability that overlapped for all the plant species: 33% reduction for SSP2-4.5 and 63% reduction for SSP5-8.5. If our projections materialize, climate change could thus affect the distribution of key resources, and the maintenance of C. spixii would depend on restoration of degraded areas, especially riparian forests, and the preservation of already existing natural areas. The Caatinga domain is very threatened by habitat loss and, for the success of this reintroduction project, the parties involved must act to protect the species and the resources it uses. Evaluación de los Sitios de Reintroducción de Especies con base en la Futura Idoneidad Climática para los Recursos Alimenticios Resumen: La reintroducción de una especie que se encuentra extinta en vida libre exige precaución pues las localidades de reintroducción pueden estar asociadas con amenazas como la cacería, hábitats de mala calidad y el cambio climático. Éste es el caso para Cyanop-sitta spixii (Guacamaya de Spix), que ha estado extinta en vida libre desde el 2000. Los pocos individuos vivos nacieron en cautiverio y se usarán para un proyecto de reintroduc-ción dentro del área original de distribución de la especie: el dominio Caatinga (Brasil). Ya que los registros de la presencia de esta ave son viejos e imprecisos, investigamos la idonei-dad ambiental actual y a futuro de 14 especies de plantas que C. spixii usa como recurso. Estas plantas son elementos importantes para el restablecimiento a largo plazo de las especies en vida silvestre, así que el uso de modelos asiste en la evaluación de los efectos del Conservation Biology. 2021;1-12. © 2021 Society for Conservation Biology 1 wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/cobi 2 GOMIDES ET AL. cambio climático sobre la disponibilidad de recursos para la especie e informa la selección de los mejores lugares para la reintroducción. Basamos nuestros modelos de la idoneidad ambiental en 19 variables bioclimáticas y 9 variables físicas del suelo y la topografía. Las proyecciones climáticas fueron creadas para el presente y para el año 2070 con un esce-nario climático optimista (SSP2-4.5) y uno pesimista (SSP5-8.5) Ambos escenarios climáti-cos futuros llevan a una reducción en el área de idoneidad ambiental sobrepuesta para todas las especies de plantas: 33% de reducción para SSP2-4.5 y 63% de reducción para SSP5-8.5. Si nuestras proyecciones se materializan, el cambio climático podría entonces afectar la distribución de los recursos importantes, por lo que la conservación de C. spixii dependería de la restauración de las áreas degradadas, especialmente los bosques riparios y la preservación de las áreas naturales existentes. El dominio Caatinga se encuentra muy amenazado por la pérdida del hábitat y, para el éxito de este proyecto de reintroducción, las partes involucradas deben actuar para proteger a la especie y los recursos que utiliza. PALABRAS CLAVE ave neotropical, Caatinga, calentamiento global, cambio climático, especie endémica, pérdida de hábitat, Psittaci-dae, riesgo de extinción
... Our approach is designed to meet practical conservation challenges in developing countries with limited funding, knowledge, and time for action (Bonfim et al., 2019;Cayuela et al., 2009;Guisan et al., 2013). Having said that, we caution that having species-specific distribution models of a handful of threatened and charismatic species does not replace having comprehensive data to guide allocation of conservation efforts for biodiversity nor does it ensure species persistence within protected areas (Roberge & Angelstam, 2004). ...
Prioritizing candidate areas to achieve species richness representation is relatively straightforward when distributions are known for many taxa; however, it may be challenging in data-poor regions. One approach is to focus on the distribution of a few charismatic species in areas that overlap with areas with little human influence, and another is to expand protection in the vicinity of existing protected areas. We assessed the effectiveness of these two approaches for protecting the potential distribution of 21 bird species affiliated with the piedmont dry forest in Argentina. We assessed the degree to which current protected areas met the representation target for each bird species. We found that 8% of the piedmont dry forest and 11% of the extent of occurrence of the bird species within piedmont dry forest were protected, indicating a shortfall. Areas with little human influence that overlap with the distribution of charismatic species had a higher number of bird species than areas with high human influence. Areas within the vicinity of protected areas performed similarly to priority areas, but included high human influence areas. We suggest that a prioritization scheme based on areas of charismatic species distribution that overlap with areas of low human influence can function as an effective surrogate for bird species affiliated with the piedmont dry forest in Argentina. Our results have operational implications for conservation planning in those regions of the world where biodiversity data are poor, but where decisions and actions to sustain biodiversity are urgently needed.
... In addition to the areas identified by Bonfim et al. (2019), an assessment of the Research Institute at the Rio de Janeiro Botanical Garden was suggested, as a potential area for reintroduction (see Appendix E). During the workshop the role was identified as assisted colonization, but after the workshop it was ascertained that the area is within the species' historical distribution. ...
... Environmental niche models (hereafter ENMs) are predictions of species distributions in geographic space (hereafter G-space) that use computer algorithms and mathematical representations of the species' known distribution in environmental space (hereafter E-space; Leathwick 2009, Peterson 2011). The use of ENMs has become instrumental in recent years (Lobo et al. 2010) and is applied in a wide range of fields, such as those pertaining to geographic distributions (Ramoni-Perazzi et al. 2012, 2017, past and potential future distributions in response to climate change (Dyderski et al. 2018, Simpson et al. 2018, Warren et al. 2018, species invasions (Lins et al. 2018, Oliveira et al. 2018, diseases and agricultural pest organisms (Carmona-Castro et al. 2018, Carvajal et al. 2019, Marchioro and Krechemer 2018, biodiversity conservation priorities (Bonfim et al. 2018), and even archaeology (Banks 2017, d'Errico et al. 2017. ENMs have been combined with multivariate analyses of the E-space (Broennimann et al. 2012), reviving the interest in ecological niches (Kozak et al. 2006, Warren et al. 2008, McCormack et al. 2010, Peterson 2011. ...
The interaction between ecology and evolution, particularly with regard to speciation processes, remains a main topic of scientific research. Andean hummingbirds have undergone remarkable radiation, with many species exhibiting patchy distributions and, in some cases, taxonomic controversy. An example is the Sapphire‐vented Puffleg (Eriocnemis luciani; ssp. baptistae, luciani, and meridae), which some authors merge with the Coppery‐naped Puffleg (E. sapphiropygia; ssp. catharina and sapphiropygia). Each group is distributed either north or south from the Huancabamba Depression, the major biogeographical barrier within the tropical Andes. We investigated whether these subspecies share some niche characteristics despite their geographical separation and determined their meaning in the context of the speciation process of trochilids in the tropical Andes. For each subspecies, we performed geographical predictions and paired tests of niche conservatism in environmental space. Geographical predictions included separate regions for subspecies catharina and sapphiropygia, while the predicted regions for subspecies luciani and baptistae greatly overlapped. The E. l. luciani model predicted a single pixel near to the potential area of E. l. meridae, known only from a unique, old record. Subspecies luciani and baptistae exhibited the greatest niche overlap among the pairs of taxa for most variables. However, our results clearly indicated niche divergence for the four members of the E. luciani‐sapphiropygia complex, independent of the similarities or slight dissimilarities in their respective backgrounds, indicating that other forces in addition to variation in environmental parameters, such as natural selection or genetic drift, are driving the radiation of these hummingbirds. This finding coincides with the unusually high speciation rates reported for Andean hummingbirds. Thus, the currently accepted taxonomy within the E. lucianisapphiropygia complex maybe even more convoluted than indicated by previous studies. Hence, the results of our study are a wakeup call to include the exploration of lineage diversification in biodiversity‐related efforts. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
... Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) has been consolidated as a widely used tool to promote conservation actions worldwide due to numerous applications (e.g., Vaz, Cunha, & Nabout, 2015), such as: (a) predicting the distribution of rare, endemic and threatened species (e.g., Walters et al., 2017); (b) investigating species not spatially protected and evaluating priority areas for conservation (e.g. Blair et al., 2012;Bonfim, Cordeiro, Peres, Canale, & Bernardo, 2019); (c) predicting suitable areas for invasive species (e.g., Kulhanek, Leung, & Ricciardi, 2011;Oliveira, de Souza Barreto, da Silva dos Santos, Queiroz de Matos, & Seara Santos, 2018); (d) evaluating climate change effects (e.g., Ortega-Andrade, Prieto-Torres, Gómez-Lora, & Lizcano, 2015); and (e) determining suitable areas for the (re)introduction of fauna (e.g., Martínez-Meyer et al., 2006). Thus, using ENM and the most seized bird species in Brazil as surrogates for conservation, we evaluated herein the effects of climate change on the main sourcemunicipalities for animal trafficking in Brazil, offering general insight for improvements in area-selection methods for the release of seized animals. ...
Regardless of the economic, social and environmental impacts caused by wild animal trafficking worldwide, the suitable destination of seized specimens is one of the main challenges faced by environmental managers and authorities. In Brazil, returning seized animals to the wild has been the most frequent path in population restoration programs, and has been carried out, as a priority, in areas where the animals were captured. However, in addition to the difficulty in identifying the locations of illegal captures, little scientific knowledge is available on the future viability of the source‐areas to global climate change. Thus, the current work aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the main source‐municipalities for animal trafficking in Brazil, referred to herein as source‐areas. For this, using ecological niche modeling, the environmental suitability of the source‐areas for illegal animal captures was evaluated in two scenarios at two differ time horizons: optimistic (RCP 26) and a pessimistic (RCP 85) emission scenarios in both 2050 and 2070 projections. Moreover, the source‐areas were compared with the Brazilian Federal protected areas, used here as the control group. According to the results, Brazilian source‐municipalities are not always the best option for maintaining the most seized species in the future simulations, and, therefore, seem not be the best option for projects that aim for the return of these animals to the wild. In this sense, despite the genetic and ecological issues inherent in translocation projects, our results suggest that population restoration programs for seized species need to be rethought, and furthermore other suitable areas could be considered for truly ensuring the survival and maintenance of overexploited populations in the long‐term. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
