Figure 10 - available via license: Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Content may be subject to copyright.
Source publication
Accurate short-term load forecasting can ensure the safe operation of the grid. Decomposing load data into smooth components by decomposition algorithms is a common approach to address data volatility. However, each component of the decomposition must be modeled separately for prediction, which leads to overly complex models. To solve this problem,...
Similar publications
To extract strong correlations between different energy loads and improve the interpretability and accuracy for load forecasting of a regional integrated energy system (RIES), an explainable framework for load forecasting of an RIES is proposed. This includes the load forecasting model of RIES and its interpretation. A coupled feature extracting st...
Citations
... The experiment results showed that using sample entropy for reconstruction reduced the complexity of the model and ensured the accuracy and reliability of the forecasting intervals. Although EEMD solves the modal mixing phenomenon in EMD, the white noise it adds to the original signal contaminates the fluctuation trend of the original signal [29]. In contrast, variational modal decomposition (VMD) solves this problem well. ...
The fluctuation and uncertainty of the electricity load bring challenges to load forecasting. Traditional point forecasting struggles to avoid errors, and pure interval forecasting may cause the problem of too wide an interval. In this paper, we combine point forecasting and interval forecasting and propose a point-interval forecasting model for electricity load based on regular fluctuation component extraction. Firstly, the variational modal decomposition is combined with the sample entropy to decompose the original load series into a strong regular fluctuation component and a weak regular fluctuation component. Then, the gate recurrent unit neural network is used for point forecasting of the strong regular fluctuation component, and the support vector quantile regression model is used for interval forecasting of the weak regular fluctuation component, and the results are accumulated to obtain the final forecasting intervals. Finally, experiments were conducted using electricity load data from two regional electricity grids in Shaanxi Province, China. The results show that combining the idea of point interval, point forecasting, and interval forecasting for components with different fluctuation regularity can effectively reduce the forecasting interval width while having high accuracy. The proposed model has higher forecasting accuracy and smaller mean interval width at various confidence levels compared to the commonly used models.
