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Population exposed to wildfires in the intermixed Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) in Portugal (see Figure 20), ranging between a minimum (right-hand) and maximum (left-hand) as a function of the uncertainty of the percentage of wildland estimated from the CORINE Land Cover map of 2012 [7, 8]. Population counting was based on the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) [52].
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This research focuses on European wildfire danger and vulnerability under a changing climate, to support the integration of some main climate-related components of wildfire risk. A detailed assessment is proposed on the varying frequency of fire danger classes (from the relatively safer to the extreme danger conditions) under changing climate. On a...
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The devastating effects of wildfires on the wildlife and their impact on human lives and properties are undeniable. This shows the importance of the study of the spread of wildfires and presenting more reliable models for the propagation. Here, some model for the propagation of the wildfire in an $n$-dimensional smooth manifold $M$ under the presen...
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... The main dynamics influencing forest fire potential are climate and weather. These factors together with vegetation composition and conditions, and chiefly human activities, play an essential role in fire regimes [1]. Fire events influence many relevant ecosystem processes and patterns, including the carbon cycle, vegetation structure, and climate at regional and global scales [2]. ...
... At the beginning of this century, severe forest fires consistently affected European Mediterranean countries such as Italy, Greece, Portugal, France and Spain. These regions on average collectively account for approximately 85% of the total burnt area in Europe per year, according to Costa [1]. Significant increases in wildfire outbreaks have occurred in Calabria, a Southern Italian region, during the investigation period, i.e., since 2017 to 2021. ...
In Southern Mediterranean regions, the issue of summer fires related to agriculture practices is a periodic recurrence. It implies a significant increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and other combustion-related gaseous and particles compounds emitted into the atmosphere with potential impacts on air quality and global climate. In this work, we performed an analysis of summer fire events that occurred on August 2021. Measurements were carried out at the permanent World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) station of Lamezia Terme (Code: LMT) in Calabria, Southern Italy. The observatory is equipped with greenhouse gases and black carbon analyzers, an atmospheric particulate impactor system, and a meteo-station for atmospheric parameters to characterize atmospheric mechanisms and transport for land and sea breezes occurrences. High mole fractions of carbon monoxide (CO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) coming from quadrants of inland areas were correlated with fire counts detected via the MODIS satellite (GFED-Global Fire Emissions Database) at 1 km of spatial resolution. In comparison with the typical summer values, higher CO and CO2 were observed in August 2021. Furthermore, the growth in CO concentration values in the tropospheric column was also highlighted by the analyses of the L2 products of the Copernicus SP5 satellite. Wind fields were reconstructed via a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) output, the latter suggesting a possible contribution from open fire events observed at the inland region near the observatory. So far, there have been no documented estimates of the effect of prescribed burning on carbon emissions in this region. This study suggested that data collected at the LMT station can be useful in recognizing and consequently quantifying emission sources related to open fires.
... Source: EC, JRC, Costa et al. 2020 While climatic conditions play an important role in defining the fire hazard, human action is key for the risk to materialise. In Europe, approximately 96% of wildfires are caused by people. ...
... The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (47) notes that fire weather is expected to increase in many parts of the world and, a 2-degree global warming scenario is projected to increase burned area globally by 35%. These estimates are corroborated by regional studies, which point to an increase in the number of human-induced wildfires, burned area, and wildfire risk (21,(48)(49)(50)(51)(52)(53)(54)(55)(56). ...
... Furthermore, the frequency of long fire-weather seasons increased across more than half of the global vegetated area between 1996 and 2013, compared with 1979-1996. Regional studies corroborate these global findings by showing an increase in the number of fires and the burned area during fire seasons, as well as in the size, extent, and frequency of large fires (49,(56)(57)(58)(59)(60)(61). Consensus is emerging that the conventional suppressioncentered wildfire and forest management strategies applied so far no longer efficiently address megafires, variously defined, but usually as fires that burn over 40,000 hectares. ...
The August 8, 2023R Lahaina fire refocused attention on wildfires, public alerts, and emergency management. Wildfire risk is on the rise, precipitated through a combination of climate change, increased development in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), decades of unmitigated biomass accumulation in forests, and a long history of emphasis on fire suppression over hazard mitigation. Stemming the tide of wildfire death and destruction will involve bringing together diverse scientific disciplines into policy. Renewed emphasis is needed on emergency alerts and community evacuations. Land management strategies need to account for the impact of climate change and hazard mitigation on forest ecosystems. Here, we propose a long-term strategy consisting of integrating wildfire risk management in wider-scope forest land management policies and strategies, and we discuss new technologies and possible scientific breakthroughs.
... Forest policies are fundamental since almost all national mitigation strategies (CAT 2022;UNEP 2023;UNFCCC 2021) and Paris Compliant Pathways (IIASA 2022;van Vuuren et al. 2018) involve carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration compensating for emissions in other (hard-to-abate) sectors (APA 2019; EU 2020). Although forest sinks currently offset about 9% of total European Union (EU) CO 2 emissions, the future mitigation potential of forests is highly uncertain, considering human practices and climate change (Costa et al. 2020;Vizzarri et al. 2022). Improved firemanagement strategies since the 1990s are countered by the effects of climate change, with forest fires accounting for 24% of forest damage in Europe (Schelhaas et al. 2020). ...
... Wildfire risks are projected to increase globally (Arce 2019;Costa et al. 2020;UNEP 2022) and in Portugal (Rego et al. 2021;Vizzarri et al. 2022), jeopardizing national carbon removal targets. Due to afforestation programs, mainland Portugal's forest areas increased from 7 to 36% of total land areas between the late nineteenth century and 2020, with eucalyptus now being the dominant species (Reboredo and Pais 2014;WB 2023a). ...
... This situation increases the difficulty of forest management. It may help to explain why Portugal has a higher percentage of burnt area compared with countries with similar forest cover and climatic challenges (Cloke and Da Costa 2021;Costa et al. 2020;OECD 2023). c. ...
The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming hinges on forest carbon sequestration as a key in several national strategies. However, Portugal’s rising forest fire occurrences threaten its ability to meet ambitious 2030 and 2050 carbon sequestration targets. Considering fire and forest trends, this study aims to quantify whether Portugal can reach its carbon sequestration ambitions as stated in its 2030 and 2050 targets. We tested three national forest scenario extensions of the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and Shared Policy Assumptions (SPAs) based on a dynamic model, simulating forest area and carbon sequestration related to future fire risk and policies of fire management, forest management, restoration of burnt areas, and climate change adaptation. The model projects a rapidly decreasing forest area under existing Portuguese policies (PT-SSP3), a slow decline under moderate policy improvements (PT-SSP2), and an almost stable forest area under long-term sustainable policy developments (PT-SSP1). In PT-SSP3, carbon sequestration will be reduced to 60% by 2050 compared to 2015, while it declines to about 85% and 90% under PT-SSP2 and PT-SSP1, respectively. It is still plausible to reach Portugal’s 2030 sequestration obligations under the EU’s Paris Agreement target under all three scenarios, while the Portuguese GHG neutrality target is not reached in the presented scenarios. Our four introduced policy areas (increasing focus on fire and forest management, forest restoration, and climate change adaptation of forest stands) must be supplemented by other policy strategies, such as reforestation.
... However, in recent years, they have emerged as a significant natural disaster posing a grave threat to the environment, economy, and human life (Dupuy et al., 2020). Within Europe, forest fires have repeatedly struck, with Mediterranean countries bearing the brunt of the extensive burnt areas (Costa et al., 2020). The European Mediterranean region's susceptibility to forest fires stems from its distinctive climate, diverse vegetation, and human interventions and activities (Moreira et al., 2020). ...
... However, in recent years, they have emerged as a significant natural disaster posing a grave threat to the environment, economy, and human life (Dupuy et al., 2020). Within Europe, forest fires have repeatedly struck, with Mediterranean countries bearing the brunt of the extensive burnt areas (Costa et al., 2020). The European Mediterranean region's susceptibility to forest fires stems from its distinctive climate, diverse vegetation, and human interventions and activities (Moreira et al., 2020). ...
... The occurrence of forest fire events is becoming more frequent on our planet, affecting more people and generating devastating social, environmental and economic impacts. These wildland fires are a global disaster phenomenon occurring worldwide, and have been increasing in number, area, and intensity, as a result of climate change, territorial disorder, and lack of forest management, while also impacting communities and ecosystems that are exposed to risk areas [1]. Thus, wildfires (non-natural and non-prescribe) represent a major challenge being faced when sustainably managing forest territories in Europe, as pointed out by the EU's new Forest Strategy for 2030 [2]. ...
BRIDGE (bridging science and local communities for wildfire risk reduction) is an action–research project developing a community-based disaster risk reduction (CBDRR) process which is being fostered through a collaborative innovation laboratory (InnoLab). BRIDGE integrates different forms of knowledge and action, linking science and local communities to reduce their vulnerability and to enhance strategies for forest fire risk reduction. Applied in Monchique, a forest-fire-prone municipality in Portugal, the InnoLab creates a space for dialogue and knowledge sharing between multiple actors that, directly or indirectly, manage forest territories. BRIDGE attempts to facilitate social learning about forest fire risks, strengthen collaborative networks and enhance adaptive capacities (socially and institutionally) for forest fire prevention. This paper shares results of the InnoLab activities, which include (i) school community activities on wildfire risk perception; (ii) participatory mapping of Monchique’s vulnerabilities and risks; (iii) participatory sessions to create the community visioning for Monchique’s territory, to define priorities and capacities to be improved, and to identify functions and responsibilities to act upon; and (iv) workshop on CBDRR strategies for action. Lessons are shared on how InnoLab can represent an innovative participatory approach to promote CBDRR processes in forest-fire-prone territories by both contributing to the recognition of local knowledge systems and encouraging the active role of forest communities through strengthened local networks for a more lasting commitment to forest fire risk reduction policy.
... To determine this, data on 15 parameters (e. g. fuel, historical fires, land use, climatic conditions) are combined.The available maps from the European Forest Fire Information System-EFFIS that depict the WFR are downloaded(Costa et al., 2020;Oorn et al., 2022;San-Miguel-Ayanz et al., 2018): https://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/apps/fire.risk.viewer/ Grid: 12.5 km x 12.5 km. ...
The protection of cultural resources from natural and human–induced hazards has been an area of intense scientific interest over time. The literature highlights that, despite the intensive research efforts to date, there is a lack of a commonly accepted hazard assessment framework that supports decision–making to limit their negative effects and contribute to the protection of cultural heritage. In this paper, a general method for assessing the intensity of multiple hazards on cultural resources is developed and applied. The proposed method utilizes a) the capabilities of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), b) open geospatial hazard data and c) an original 7–step integrated method developed in this research. Key features of the proposed method are its ability to consider and synthesize intensities of quantitative hazards such as earthquakes, floods and hazards expressed on a qualitative scale, such as wildfire and landslide. The proposed method is applied to assess the exposure of 918 cultural resources of the Region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, Greece, to earthquake, flood, landslide, sea level rise, wildfire, soil erosion and industrial–technological accident and develop an aggregate multi–hazard intensity index (mhii) for each of the cultural resources in this region. The proposed method can be applied to hazard intensity assessment for resources other than cultural, such as a region's human capital, infrastructure, environment, and economic facilities. This provides researchers, scientists, and managers of cultural sites with a tool to set priorities for designing appropriate mitigation strategies to reduce the negative impacts of hazards.
... Em Portugal, como em muitos países da Europa, as áreas rurais estão em declínio populacional há longas décadas, o que conduz a efeitos catastróficos no impacto que os incêndios podem ter. O abandono de atividades tradicionais como a agricultura, pastorícia e silvicultura fez acumular nos territórios rurais cargas de combustível consideráveis (Ferreira-Leite, et al., 2012;Moreira, et al., 2011;Pausas e Fernandez-Muñoz, 2012, Nunes, et al., 2016Devy-Vareta, 2003;Pereira, et al., 2006;Araújo, 2018) e que hoje temos necessidade imperativa de gerir de forma sustentável, problema mais visível na região Norte e Centro do país, uma vez que possuí impactos diretos no risco de incêndio (Fidalgo, 2012;European Commission, et al., 2020;Oliveira, et al., 2018). ...
The 2017 fires in Portugal strongly marked civil society, proving to be one of the deadliest in the country`s history,
resulting in the loss of 117 lives and very significant damage to homes, businesses and ecosystems. These events
underlined the urgent need to promote a culture of risk prevention in communities, especially rural communities. Thus,
with this purpose, the programs Safe Village, Safe People were created.
This work aims to explain the experience in implementing the Safe Village, Safe People programs, focusing on the
expertise developed by the Municipality of Ansião in the Village of Vale Florido. And, in particular, identify the obstacles encountered, strengths, weaknesses, difficulties and future perspectives for these programs. Finally, some
recommendations will be presented to effectively improve the implementation of the Safe Village, Safe People
programs. Methodologically, the collection of testimonies from the Municipal Civil Protection services of Ansião began,
in order to identify the main challenges that arise in the implementation of the ASPS programs in the first person.
This work's results, based on the municipalities experience in implementing ASPS, demonstrate the importance of a
community-centered approach. By involving local residents, municipalities can effectively develop a culture of proximity
between communities and civil protection. The involvement of Presidents of the Parish Council, due to its proximity to
the populations, proved to have a primary role in the adherence of the population to the program. The results also
highlight the need for continuous evaluation and adaptation of these programmes to ensure their long-term effectiveness
and to make them flexible in the face of new societal challenges. Ultimately, the success of these initiatives depends to
a large extent on the commitment and collaboration of all: rural communities and civil protection agents.
... Climate change models predict that the effect of climate change will bring forward the start of the fire season and that it will end later, leading to a significant increase in the number of days with meteorological conditions favourable to the occurrence of high-intensity wildland fires (Aparício et al., 2022). In addition, and depending on the global warming scenario (1.5, 2 or 3 • C), Costa et al. (2020) estimated an increase in the number of days with high to extreme fire danger from around 10 to more than 40 days per year for Portugal and Spain. Moreover, one of the most used measure to manage the extent of the wildfire is the use of prescribed fire, and its feasibility, according to Davim et al. (2022), is being affected by climate change which elevates the apparent need to scale-up fuel management efforts. ...
