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Population change in Taiwan, 1970–2010 Source: data acquired from the Statistical Yearbook of the Republic of China (1970, 1990, 2010), published by the Department of Household Registration, Ministry of the Interior, Taiwan
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This study uses multi-state cohort component projections and detailed vital statistics data to project the future Taiwanese population by age, sex, and education up to 2050. These are the first education-specific population projections for Taiwan, and they reveal how young highly educated cohorts during the next decades will replace older cohorts w...
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Citations
... Although modernization increases women's economic prospects and social acceptance, it reduces fertility (Heckman 1978). This is because women progressively remain in the workforce, engage in a job throughout their working age, and reduce childbearing (Cheng and Loichinger 2016). Therefore, economic growth and the female labour force are closely linked, despite their effects being controversial. ...
... Indeed, prior studies found a range of factors influencing female labour force participation including education, healthcare, division of labour, and social norms, such as family obligations (Cebula and Coombs 2008;İlkkaracan 2012;Asian Development Bank 2016;Desai and Joshi 2019). Specifically, Cheng and Loichinger (2016) found that expanding economic activity across educational attainment, especially for women, can alleviate the expected adverse economic consequences of population ageing by having a more educated and productive labour force. This highlights the importance of women's education levels, as well as their spouses', in determining women's participation in labour market activities (Mammen and Paxson 2000). ...
... This burden is also attributed to the spurt in expenditure on welfare systems such as healthcare and pension policies that cater to the long-term needs of the growing population of aged people (Bloom et al. 2015). The implications of this negative relationship are an ageing population that burdens the economy in the long run through a labour supply shortage (Cheng and Loichinger 2016) and influences healthcare costs among the elderly. Koris et al. (2019) noted that the authorities should financially support elderly people who cannot bear healthcare costs to protect them from being trapped. ...
... They modelled labour force participation rates from regression parameters based on individual characteristics, which also allows to take into account cohort-specific behaviours. Microsimulation models using a similar approach have been built for Canada and the United States Van Hook et al., 2020), while different variants of overlaying participation rates by age and sex (and sometime education) on outputs of multistate or cohort-component models have been made in other developed regions (Cheng & Loichinger, 2017;Peacock & Finlayson, 2009;Toossi, 2006). ...
While India is entering the period of demographic dividend, female labour participation rates remain very low. This paper aims to provide the very first labour force projections for India and its regions up to the year 2060. Projections are achieved using a discrete-time microsimulation model in which changes in population size and composition come from the interaction between demographic characteristics, educational attainment, and secular tendencies. Labour force participation rates are estimated at the individual level using personal characteristics as predictors. Results show that under constant labour force participation rates, the labour force dependency ratio (non-workers/workers) is very unlikely to attain favourable levels, which compromises the potential demographic dividend that the country could gain from its favourable age-structure. At the subnational level, the forecast yields the most favourable dependency ratio in 2060 in the regions that combine both a low-age dependency ratio and a higher participation of women. Results moreover suggest that female labour force participation is a better driver of the labour force dependency ratio than the age composition.
... Next, we evaluate the implications of forthcoming demographic change for late singlehood in each of these populations from 2010 to 2050. We draw on most recent population projections by sex, age, and educational attainment for China, South Korea, Japan (Lutz, Butz, and KC 2014), and Taiwan (Cheng and Loichinger 2017). We generate several sets of counterfactual projections of marriage for each population by applying contemporary matching norms to future population projections disaggregated first by age and sex and second by age, sex, and educational attainment. ...
... For China, Japan, and South Korea, we use the projections published by the Wittgenstein Centre (Lutz, Butz, and KC 2014), in which information on educational attainment is incorporated within the medium growth scenarios of United Nations population projections until 2050 (United Nations 2011). We use the projections published by Cheng and Loichinger (2017) for Taiwan. Key demographic trends in these four populations are going to impact on the composition of marriage markets in coming decades. ...
... Percentage of postsecondary completed (25-34) and female educational advantage, 1970-2050Source: Own elaboration based on data fromLutz, Butz, and K.C. (2014) for China, South Korea, and Japan, andCheng and Loichinger (2017) for Taiwan. ...
Background: Marriage is a central institution for social reproduction in East Asia. Until the 1970s and 1980s, marriage across much of East Asia was early and universal. In recent decades, though, this pattern has begun shifting to one of later and less marriage.
Objective: We explore the long-term implications for universal marriage patterns of future demographic change in marriage markets in the context of prevailing marriage norms by projecting trends in late singlehood (ages 45 to 49) in four East Asian societies (China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan).
Methods: We estimate forces of attraction to characterize marriage matching norms by age and education across these different societies by drawing on large-scale population data. Next, we develop counterfactual scenarios in which we apply contemporary norms to future population structures in these societies, as well as scenarios based on more gender-symmetrical matching norms to examine how populations who have never been married by ages 45 to 49 would evolve.
Results: Our projections indicate that in the coming decades there will be a substantial increase in late singlehood across all these societies relative to their 2010 levels. These increases in singlehood are driven by forthcoming demographic changes in the marriage market that intensify the effects of prevailing matching norms. These increases are notable in Taiwan and South Korea, where recent data indicate generalized weak propensities to marry in current norms. While a shift toward greater gender symmetry in matching norms would reverse gender gaps between men and women in nonmarriage, it would have little impact on the overall projected proportions of singles by ages 45 to 49.
Conclusions: If prevailing norms in each of these contexts continue, the universality of marriage will be substantially eroded in the coming decades, even if norms become more gender symmetrical. The extent to which nonmarital cohabitation and childbearing emerge in the future will determine how marriage will influence fertility trends, population growth, aging, and social reproduction.
Contribution: For the first time, we project the implications for universal marriage of recent shifts in marriage norms and demographic change in East Asian countries.
... For example, seeCheng and Loichinger (2017).13 For a detailed description of the LSD-C model, its content, its methods, and its hypotheses, seeBélanger et al. (2018). ...
In Canada, the immigration selection process gives great importance to education level. However, studies find that given an equivalent level of education, immigrants have significantly lower literacy skills than their Canadian-born counterparts. This research shows the importance of accounting for literacy skills in the analysis of labor supplies. Made possible by survey data from the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) and a microsimulation model (LSD-C), the Canadian workforce (labor supply) is projected by many socio-economic variables, including literacy skill proficiency. The projected workforce is then distinguished according to the five major occupational types as defined by the National Occupational Classification (NOC) of Canada. The parameters used for this distribution derive from multinomial logistic regressions stratified by education level and immigration status. These regressions first account for a slough of socio-demographic variables including level of literacy (N = 15,180). The procedure is then repeated omitting literacy. A comparison of the two breakdowns shows that by factoring literacy skills into the analysis, the projected supply of labor (and skills) is more conservative. In analyzing this refined reflection of labor force supply, we show how it is more balanced and how it better matches the labor demand. This paper highlights how traditional projections and analyses of labor supply and demand, which only account for education level, overestimate the number of workers who have a proper skillset for holding professional or managerial positions. Policy implications in terms of immigrants’ selection and economic integration are discussed.
... Next, we evaluate the implications of forthcoming demographic change for late singlehood in each of these populations from 2010 to 2050. We draw on most recent population projections by sex, age, and educational attainment for China, South Korea, Japan (Lutz, Butz, and KC 2014), and Taiwan (Cheng and Loichinger 2017). We generate several sets of counterfactual projections of marriage for each population by applying contemporary matching norms to future population projections disaggregated first by age and sex and second by age, sex, and educational attainment. ...
... For China, Japan, and South Korea, we use the projections published by the Wittgenstein Centre (Lutz, Butz, and KC 2014), in which information on educational attainment is incorporated within the medium growth scenarios of United Nations population projections until 2050 (United Nations 2011). We use the projections published by Cheng and Loichinger (2017) for Taiwan. Key demographic trends in these four populations are going to impact on the composition of marriage markets in coming decades. ...
... Percentage of postsecondary completed (25-34) and female educational advantage, 1970-2050Source: Own elaboration based on data fromLutz, Butz, and K.C. (2014) for China, South Korea, and Japan, andCheng and Loichinger (2017) for Taiwan. ...
Background: Marriage is a central institution for social reproduction in East Asia. Until the 1970s and 1980s, marriage across much of East Asia was early and universal. In recent decades, though, this pattern has begun shifting to one of later and less marriage.
Objective: We explore the long-term implications for universal marriage patterns of future demographic change in marriage markets in the context of prevailing marriage norms by projecting trends in late singlehood (ages 45 to 49) in four East Asian societies (China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan).
Methods: We estimate forces of attraction to characterize marriage matching norms by age and education across these different societies by drawing on large-scale population data. Next, we develop counterfactual scenarios in which we apply contemporary norms to future population structures in these societies, as well as scenarios based on more gender-symmetrical matching norms to examine how populations who have never been married by ages 45 to 49 would evolve.
Results: Our projections indicate that in the coming decades there will be a substantial increase in late singlehood across all these societies relative to their 2010 levels. These increases in singlehood are driven by forthcoming demographic changes in the marriage market that intensify the effects of prevailing matching norms. These increases are notable in Taiwan and South Korea, where recent data indicate generalized weak propensities to marry in current norms. While a shift toward greater gender symmetry in matching norms would reverse gender gaps between men and women in nonmarriage, it would have little impact on the overall projected proportions of singles by ages 45 to 49.
Conclusions: If prevailing norms in each of these contexts continue, the universality of marriage will be substantially eroded in the coming decades, even if norms become more gender symmetrical. The extent to which nonmarital cohabitation and childbearing emerge in the future will determine how marriage will influence fertility trends, population growth, aging, and social reproduction.
Contribution: For the first time, we project the implications for universal marriage of recent shifts in marriage norms and demographic change in East Asian countries.
... However, changes in female Retirement, Females, Brazil, 1993-2033 labor force participation play an important role in reducing the impacts of population aging in public pension program in what is called gender demographic dividend. The estimated increase in female participation might help to equilibrate the relation between pension beneficiaries and taxpayers (Verick, 2018;Cheng and Loichinger, 2017;Miller, Saad and Martinez, 2016). ...
In this paper, we investigate the length of retirement in a less developed economy with large public pension program, Brazil. We analyze the evolution of labor force participation and retirement since 1979 and estimate the expected length of retirement from 1979 to 2098 for both males and females. We use a stochastic model (Lee-Carter) to forecast labor force participation rates. Combining these estimates to UN mortality forecasts. We estimate the expected length of retirement. We find a steady decline in the labor force participation of young adults and elderly over time, mostly due to access to education and public pension programs, whereas for females we observed a constant increase for the prime-age women. Our findings also indicate that the expected length of retirement might increase from 10% to over 20% of Brazilian working lives, as people leave the labor force at early ages and live longer lives.
... As recent research has indicated, achieving Swedish participation patterns by age, sex and education that were observed in 2010 would substantially increase the participation levels of Taiwanese men and women (Cheng and Loichinger 2017). Sweden is a role model example when it comes to gender equality and economic activity levels of women and older workers. ...
... If female labour force participation saw increases in line with the assumptions of our benchmark scenario, the share of post-secondary educated women could exceed 30% of the entire workforce across these four societies by 2050. This resonates with a recent study that shows the potential contribution of increasing women's labour force participation rates in rapidly ageing Taiwan (Cheng and Loichinger 2017). The gap between promoting more conservative versus more progressive labour policies in Taiwan is about two million workers by 2050, and this extra workforce consists mainly of well-educated women. ...
The populations of Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, and Singapore are ageing rapidly, triggering fears of labour shortages. In spite of the widely acknowledged importance of worker’s skill levels, traditional labour supply projections do not account for ongoing changes in populations’ education composition and educational differentials in economic activity. By focusing on the role of educational expansion in general and female labour potential in particular, this study analyses past trends and projects future labour supply in four advanced Asian economies. We first offer an in-depth overview of developments of labour force participation, emphasising each country-specific context. We then provide selected scenarios of labour force projections up to 2050 which consider changing population compositions by education and differentials in labour participation patterns. We find that due to continued improvements in education, post-secondary educated workers will make up at least two-thirds of the future labour force in each economy. If female labour force participation saw increases in line with the assumptions of our benchmark scenario, the share of post-secondary educated women could exceed 30% of the entire workforce by 2050. Hence, the pressing problem of labour shrinkage could partly be offset by particularly incorporating better-educated women. Our findings underscore the effects of different participation scenarios (especially of women) on the total size of the labour force and the importance of including the education dimension in considerations about future labour supply. While we are not the first to make the latter argument, we are the first to quantify this potential for the analysed four advanced Asian economies.
... This allows taking into account that (1) labour participation rates vary not only by age and between men and women, but also show heterogeneity by education, and (2) populations are not only changing in their age structure, but also in their educational composition. The inclusion of education in labour supply projections captures therefore not only an important heterogeneity in economic behaviour, but also allows statements about likely changes in future human capital (Cheng and Loichinger, 2017;Loichinger, 2015). The anticipated negative macroeconomic consequences of reductions in absolute and relative labour force size in a lot of countries might be less severe due to significant productivity differentials by education (Crespo Cuaresma et al., 2016;Gunderson and Oreopoulos, 2010;Heckman and Jacobs, 2010). ...
This study uses detailed population statistics and analyzes labor participation rates in China from the perspectives of education and retirement. It presents different hypothetical scenarios and predicts future labor participation rates using queue factors. The results indicate that under the baseline scenario, the overall labor participation rate (51.43%) is projected to significantly decrease by 2060 compared to 2020 (73.76%). The lock-in effect of education leads to a declining participation rate for the 15–24 age group, which persists until approximately the age of 50. Generally, women have higher labor participation rates than men prior to retirement. In the education-centered hypothetical scenario, the quantity impact of educational expansion is evident. Although the relative impact of additional education diminishes toward the end of working life (60–74) compared to the entire working life (15–74). The improvement in the labor market due to educational reform is sustainable across all scenarios. In the retirement-centered hypothetical scenario, reducing retirement rates across age groups increases labor force participation, but this improvement mainly focuses on those under the age of 70 and is not sustained. Thus, delaying retirement policies is only effective in the short term.
This study aims to determine the effect of Civics learning based on Project Citizen on student achievement. A quantitative approach with a quasi-experimental method was carried out in one of the public high schools in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The sample that was determined purposively was two equal classes of class XI students. Data was collected using tests and observations. To test the hypothesis, we utilized the independent sample t-test. We found a positive and significant effect of the Project Citizen-based studying design on student achievement. Based on the outcomes, we concluded that Project Citizen-based learning can improve student achievement, especially in class XI Citizenship learning. The conclusion of this study can be taken into consideration for Citizenship Education teachers to choose the appropriate studying design. This can also be a reference for further similar research to improve the effectiveness of Civic Education learning.
