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... estimated provincial-level under-5 (ages 0-4 years), infant (younger than 1 year), and neonatal (younger than 1 month) mortality from 2000 to 2010 in Mozambique using publicly available data from the 2003 and 2011 DHS 19 and the 2008 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS). Figure 1 shows the provincial structure of Mozambique. 20 We merged these three datasets and used them to calculate the provincial-level probability of a child dying before their fi fth birthday (under-5 mortality rate), before their fi rst birthday (infant mortality rate), and in their fi rst month of life (neonatal mortality rate; all expressed as deaths per 1000 livebirths) for each year of the 11-year period using direct life-table estimation methods 21 that are reliant on full birth history data. ...
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... Because of COVID-19, the majority of students decided to cut down on their outgoing and gathering activities during the pandemic. This resulted in an increase anxiety and depression among college students (George Shakarishvili, 2019). Most of the students play video games, and it is known that video games are common form of entertainment (Rüth & Kaspar, 2021). ...
Student's lifestyle has been changed drastically due to covid pandemic. Whether because colleges switched to online education or the social distancing restrictions that doesn't let students to be outside as much as they usually do. This study aims to investigate and assess the potential impact of video games on college students in Dubai during the pandemic, as well as to gain a better understanding of how college students feel about video games in general. A self-administered online questionnaire was used as an instrument for data collection among 100 respondents in Dubai through stratified random sampling technique. SPSS program was used to evaluate the results from collected data. Based on findings, researcher concludes that student's lifestyle has been changed during the covid 19 pandemic as well as there is a relation between students mind and video games, but there is no risk of video game addiction which can cause negative effect on students' academic performance in Dubai.
... Given our informed assumptions about these parameters, our model shows that TTI only can compensate for a basic reproduction number R 0 of 3.3 -if in addition contagious contacts are reduced by about 40 % (95% CI: [24,53] %). This is comparable to the results of other studies [30,31,33,37,38]. ...
As SARS-CoV-2 is becoming endemic, a sustainable strategy to manage the pandemic is needed, especially when facing a steep wave. We identified a metastable regime at low case numbers, where test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) together with moderate contact reduction is sufficient to control the spread. However, this control is lost once case numbers overwhelm the limited TTI capacity. Beyond that tipping point, increasingly more infectious individuals remain undetected, generating a self-accelerating spread. To reestablish control, a lockdown (circuit breaker) has to strike a delicate balance between duration, stringency, and timeliness; otherwise, lockdowns are ineffective, or their effect is soon lost. However, once reestablishing control at low case numbers, no additional lockdowns are necessary. In the long-term, immunity and large-scale testing will further facilitate the control of COVID-19.
... The spatial weight decay, ρ, reflects the strength of inter-country connectivity, and overdispersion parameter, ψ. . Due to the high spatiotemporal heterogeneity of reported cases across Africa and to better capture country specific transmission dynamics and incidence levels not explained by observed covariates, we allowed the intercept (mean levels of λ and φ) in the local (4) and neighbor-driven (5) sources of infections to vary for each country. The relative risks for each explanatory variable included in this final model and the associated 95% confidence intervals are reported in Table 1. ...
The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is heterogeneous throughout Africa and threatening millions of lives. Surveillance and short-term modeling forecasts are critical to provide timely information for decisions on control strategies. We use a model that explains the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic over time in the entire African continent, parameterized by socioeconomic and geoeconomic variations and the lagged effects of social policy and meteorological history. We observed the effect of the human development index, containment policies, testing capacity, specific humidity, temperature and landlocked status of countries on the local within-country and external between-country transmission. One week forecasts of case numbers from the model were driven by the quality of the reported data. Seeking equitable behavioral and social interventions, balanced with coordinated country-specific strategies in infection suppression, should be a continental priority to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Africa.
... This CT procedure has proven effective in the past in various contexts [13][14][15][16] but it comes, in its standard manual implementation, with important limitations [17]. It requires the set up of a physical infrastructure, needed to find infected individuals, interview them and reconstruct their contacts in a temporal window, call these contacts, convince them to get tested and eventually isolated. ...
... A traced contact is tested and, if found in state A (infected asymptomatic), isolated (a = b = 0): the average time between the isolation of the symptomatic individual and the isolation of her asymptomatic infected contacts is τ C . Such delay can be quite large, due to the time required for the collection of the diary, the execution of the diagnostic test and the subsequent isolation [2,17]. Moreover, the manual protocol depends on ε(a), which takes into account the limited resources allocated for tracing and the limited memory/knowledge of symptomatic individuals in reconstructing their contacts. ...
Isolation of symptomatic individuals, together with tracing and testing of their nonsymptomatic contacts, is a fundamental strategy for mitigating the current COVID-19 pandemic before pharmaceutical interventions become available. The breaking of contagion chains relies on two main alternative strategies: manual reconstruction of contacts based on interviews or a digital (app-based) privacy-preserving contact tracing protocol. We compare in the same framework the effectiveness of the two strategies within the activity-driven model, a general empirically validated framework for network dynamics. Using model parameters tailored to describe SARS-CoV-2 diffusion, we show that even when the probability for a contact to be traced is the same, manual contact tracing robustly performs better than the digital protocol in increasing the epidemic threshold, limiting the height of the epidemic peaks and reducing the number of isolated individuals. This remains true even taking into account the intrinsic delay and limited scalability of the manual procedure. This result is explained in terms of the stochastic sampling occurring during the case-by-case manual reconstruction of contacts of infected individuals, contrasted with the intrinsically prearranged nature of digital tracing, determined by the decision to adopt the app or not of each individual. The better performance of manual tracing is enhanced by the heterogeneous features of agent behavior: a superspreader not adopting the app is completely invisible to digital contact tracing, while she can be traced manually, due to her multiple contacts. Our results indicate a careful integration of the two intrinsically different protocols as key to optimal mitigation strategies.
... Recently, the revised data released by Chinese health authorities definitely delivered that the case fatality rate (CFI) of COVID-19 is seriously underestimated because the phenomenon of missed reports and false positive in the early stage of the epidemic. Given the current statue of the limited pharmaceutical treatments and the unavailable targeted vaccines (11), the public health interventions are demonstrated as the most functional precautions in many countries (12)(13)(14), especially contributing to block the pandemic in Wuhan (15)(16)(17)(18). ...
The outbreak of COVID-19 since Dec. 2019 has caused severe life and economic damage worldwide, many countries are trapped by medical resource constraints or absence of targeted therapeutics, and therefore the implement of systemic policies to block this pandemic should be prioritized. Based on the transmission mechanisms and physicochemical properties of betacoronaviruses, we construct a fine-grained transmission dynamics model (ICRD) to forecast the crucial information of public concern, therein using dynamical coefficients to quantify the impact of the implement time and intensity of containment policies on the spread of epidemic. We find that the comprehensive investigation policy for susceptible population and the quarantine for suspected cases eminently contribute to reduce casualties during the phase of the dramatic increase of diagnosed cases. Statistic evidences strongly suggest that society should take such forceful public health interventions to cut the infection channels in the initial stage until the pandemic is interrupted.
... Nevertheless, with an estimated 60% undetected cases (10,11,12) the novel coronavirus is currently circulating uncontrolled worldwide. Recent results suggest that a large fraction of infectious individuals are asymptomatic (13), dramatically shrinking the window of opportunity to contain local sporadic outbreaks by stopping chains of infection (14). Therefore, several European countries are now enacting non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at slowing and mitigating the epidemic to "flatten the curve" and avoid the collapse of their entire healthcare system due to severe cases requiring hospitalization and extended stay in intensive care units (15,14,16,17). ...
... Recent results suggest that a large fraction of infectious individuals are asymptomatic (13), dramatically shrinking the window of opportunity to contain local sporadic outbreaks by stopping chains of infection (14). Therefore, several European countries are now enacting non-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at slowing and mitigating the epidemic to "flatten the curve" and avoid the collapse of their entire healthcare system due to severe cases requiring hospitalization and extended stay in intensive care units (15,14,16,17). ...
Italy is currently experiencing the largest COVID-19 outbreak in Europe so far, with more than 45,000 confirmed cases.
Following the identification of the first infections, on February 21, 2020, national authorities have put in place an increasing number of restrictions aimed at containing the outbreak and delaying the epidemic peak.
Since March 9, the whole country is under lockdown.
Here we provide the first quantitative assessment of the impact of such measures on the mobility and the social mixing of Italians, through the analysis of a large-scale dataset on de-identified, geo-located smartphone users.
With respect to pre-outbreak averages, we estimate a reduction of 50% of the total trips between Italian provinces, following the lockdown.
In the same week, the average users' radius of gyration has declined by about 50% and the average degree of the users' proximity network has dropped by 17% at national level.
... Concurrently, the number of measles cases has increased in all but one of the WHO regions [5], over 80,000 cases (with a hospitalisation rate >60%) occurred in the European Union [6], and the United States of America experienced 17 measles outbreaks [2,7]. The majority of these cases occurred in unvaccinated individuals [8][9][10]. From collapsing public health infrastructure [11] and lack of access to vaccines [4] to non-medical exemptions, e.g., religious beliefs [12,13], and the spread of fraudulent science [14][15][16], the precise reason individuals go unvaccinated are myriad; however, underlying all these mechanisms is the coupled transmission of two contagions, one biological and one-or more-social. ...
From fake news to innovative technologies, many contagions spread via a process of social reinforcement, where multiple exposures are distinct from prolonged exposure to a single source. Contrarily, biological agents such as Ebola or measles are typically thought to spread as simple contagions. Here, we demonstrate that interacting simple contagions are indistinguishable from complex contagions. In the social context, our results highlight the challenge of identifying and quantifying mechanisms, such as social reinforcement, in a world where an innumerable amount of ideas, memes and behaviors interact. In the biological context, this parallel allows the use of complex contagions to effectively quantify the non-trivial interactions of infectious diseases.
