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Based on an in-depth analysis of results from the MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model of climate policies for Brazil and Mexico, we demonstrate that commitments by Mexico and Brazil for 2020—made during the UN climate meetings in Copenhagen and Cancun—are reachable, but they come at different costs for each country. We find tha...
Citations
... GTAP is the primary database for EPPA, however, with its geographical resolution aggregated into 10 countries and 8 regions (e.g., Africa). While the industrial sectors are merely aggregated in EPPA, the power production sector is quite detailed, providing a robust foundation for representing the application of advanced technologies in this sector [187]. This is one of the reasons why EPPA has been extensively used in assessing technological advancements besides evaluating energy and climate policies. ...
This research presents a thorough evaluation of macroeconomic modelling tools in the context of analysing industrial transformation. It emphasizes the need to link macroeconomic models with energy system models to accurately depict industrial transformation. The study begins with a broad survey of macroeconomic modelling tools. A detailed database of 61 tools is then compiled, providing a critical analysis of the tools' structures and features. From this broad spectrum, the focus is narrowed to Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. The study develops a multi-criteria analysis framework, applied specifically to four CGE modelling tools, which encompasses 19 criteria categorized under four main pillars: Industrial/Sectoral representation, Technological change, Employment, and Environment. This framework critically evaluates these tools' suitability in analysing industrial transformation, highlighting the diversity of their capabilities and limitations. Although the GEM-E3 model demonstrates a high level of alignment with the framework's criteria, none of the four tools achieves a full score in any category, indicating potential areas for improvement. The broader analysis of the database's tools reveals issues such as limited accessibility, inadequate representation of social aspects, and insufficient geographical coverage. Additionally, the study notes a general lack of transparent information concerning the full features of macroeconomic modelling tools in public literature. Concluding with recommendations for further research, the study underscores the complexities in macroeconomic modelling and the need for comprehensive tools that effectively address the multifaceted aspects of industrial transformation. Such advancements will assist in making informed decisions towards a transformation that is both environmentally and economically sustainable.
... This result is in line with Wattanakuljarus (2019) who also used the Dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) Model in Thailand, the use of a carbon tax of 20% was able to reduce emissions by 2030. Not only with the Dynamic CGE model, research using Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) E (Ayu, 2018;Bi et al., 2019;Cao et al., 2016;Coxhead et al., 2013;Kat et al., 2018;Nong, 2018;Nurdianto & Resosudarmo, 2016;Ojha et al., 2020;Ward & Batista, 2016;Yusuf & Resosudarmo, 2015), the SAM model (Frey, 2017;Grottera et al., 2017), the MIT EPPA model (Octaviano et al., 2014) reveals that a carbon tax will be able to reduce carbon emissions. ...
... Puttanapong et al. (2015) also found that increasing the carbon tax was able to reduce carbon emissions. Not only with the dynamic CGE model, research using GTAP E (Nong, 2018 andAyu, 2018), the SAM model (Frey, 2017;Grottera et al., 2017), the MIT EPPA model (Octaviano et al., 2014) revealed that a carbon tax would be able to reduce carbon emissions. ...
Green House Gases emitted into the atmosphere over decades cause global warming now. The aim of this research is the impact of implementing the carbon tax on welfare in Indonesia. The research method used is the CGE method using GTAP-E to evaluate energy policy in the economy. GTAP-E consists of 140 countries and 57 sectors combined into forty-two regions and eight sectors. Using carbon tax scenario (simulation 1 is 1.93 USD/ton CO 2, simulation 2 is 3.72 USD/ton CO 2, and simulation 3 is 4.83 USD/ton CO 2). The results of the Indonesian equivalent variation show a negative value. The higher the carbon tax is applied, the greater the decline in welfare. This is also felt by all research countries except the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Oceania, OtherSEAsia, East Asia, Argentina, Japan, Poland, Portugal, and Ukraine. The variable of the regional demand, it can be seen that the carbon tax causes Indonesia's regional income to increase, and Singapore's income to decrease, while other countries experience no change in income. The primary factor return ratio also shows that the increase in the carbon tax caused a decline in the Land, Unsklab, Sklab, Capital, and Natural Resources sectors. Indonesia's GDP also shows a decrease if a higher carbon tax is implemented, but other countries have no impact on GDP. The Carbon emissions show that it decreases to Indonesia. So, the implementation of the carbon tax causes a decrease in welfare as seen from the equivalent variation, Primary Return Ratio, and GDP in Indonesia. The government must have an alternative policy if a carbon tax is implemented in Indonesia.
... Regarding the input variables of the DEA method, many studies have included variables relating to economic activities. These variables, namely labor, energy consumption, and capital are the most used and related inputs to the production functions of economic models (Kounetas, 2015;Matsumoto et al., 2020;Menegaki, 2013;Octaviano, Paltsev, & Gurgel, 2016). We use two categories for our output variables: desirable and undesirable outputs. ...
... Except for domestic output that we use the Leontief production function to describe, all are CES (Constant Elasticity of Substitution) production functions. We do not assume that different sources of electricity are fully substituted for each other like some models (Octaviano et al., 2016). Because we consider that the factors are not completely mobile, and consumers are not entirely free to choose the source of electricity. ...
... Las acciones políticas desarrolladas en el país han tenido la fi nalidad de implementar una política climática nacional acorde con los parámetros defi nidos en el ámbito internacional. Así, el gobierno mexicano ha presentado seis Comunicaciones Nacionales ante la CMNUCC, que dan cuenta de las responsabilidades adquiridas y comprometidas: en la COP3 en 1997, en la COP7 en 2001; previa a la COP 12 en 2006, en la COP15 en 2009, en 2012 y 2018 (Octaviano et al., 2014;INECC, 2018). Esta actuación a escala internacional se concentró entre 2001 y 2012 con un total de cuatro comunicaciones. ...
Since 2005, Mexico has developed a national climate policy aligned with internationally defined parameters. In this article, we analyze the vertical and horizontal coherences in the process of institutionalization of climate policy during the period 1992–2018 in the Usumacinta River Basin, based on the review of laws and actions implemented at national scale, as well as by the federal states and municipalities. The analysis shows vertical coherence at the national-international scale, as well as at the legal level in the state of Chiapas. In terms of horizontal coherence, it points to a series of incoherencies in the state's legal framework and in concrete actions at the river basin scale linked to the vertical incoherencies between the national scale and states located in the river basin.
Resumen
Desde 2005, México ha desarrollado una política climática nacional acorde con los parámetros definidos en el ámbito internacional. En este artículo analizamos las coherencias verticales y horizontales en el proceso de institucionalización de la política climática durante el periodo 1992–2018 en la cuenca del río Usumacinta a partir de la revisión de leyes y acciones implementadas a escala nacional, así como de los estados federados y municipios. El análisis evidencia coherencias verticales a escala nacional-internacional y en el ámbito legal en el estado de Chiapas. En materia de coherencia horizontal, apunta una serie de incoherencias a escala de la cuenca en el marco legal estatal y en las acciones concretas, vinculadas con las propias incoherencias verticales entre la escala nacional y los estados de la cuenca.
Résumé
Depuis 2005, le Mexique a mis en œuvre une politique nationale en matière climatique conformément aux paramètres définis à l’échelle internationale. Dans cet article, nous analysons les cohérences verticale et horizontale du processus d'institutionnalisation de la politique climatique durant la période 1992-2018 dans le bassin versant du fleuve Usumacinta sur la base d'un examen des lois et des actions mises en œuvre à l’échelle nationale, des états fédérés et municipale. L'analyse met en évidence des cohérences verticales à l’échelle nationale-internationales et dans le domaine juridique au Chiapas. En termes de cohérence horizontales, elle dévoile un certain nombre d'incohérences juridiques dans les états fédérés et dans les actions concrètes liées aux incohérences verticales entre l’échelle nationale et les états du bassin versant.
... A recent study by Hu et al. (2022) has analyzed the role of environmental governance, i.e., the climatic mitigation and adaptation policies, in shaping the future of energy transition in the OECD countries. Outcomes of this study resonates with the findings of the study by Octaviano et al. (2016) on Mexican context. Similarly, the role of low-carbon policies in shaping the energy transition in Chinese electricity sector has been analyzed in the study by . ...
The recent Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 2022 progress report shows the presence of a possible policy lacuna at the global level in achieving the objectives of SDG 7. The recent COP26 discourse and the academic literature identify the Energy Transition as the possible mean to achieve this objective. Now, realizing the Energy Transition requires a conducive policy climate within the economies, and this conduciveness comes from the financial, technological, and the broad policy dimensions. The existing policy discourse and academic literature show that the Green Financing, Green Technologies, and the Environmental Policies might be the possible drivers to achieve this Energy Transition. Nevertheless, the exposure of a nation to the Geopolitical Risks arising out of the global connectedness of nations might be a detriment to the energy transition process. Increase in the risk profiles and decline in the attractiveness of the energy transition projects might create a roadblock for the policy drivers of energy transition to exert their potential impacts. The present study aims at developing a policy framework by analyzing the dynamic association between the energy transition and its drivers, while allowing Geopolitical Risk to moderate the association. The study is conducted for January 1, 2016 to October 31, 2022, and has used a battery of advanced econometric methods (Quantile Vector Autoregression, Cross-Quantilogram, Wavelet Quantile Correlation, and Non-Parametric Granger-Causality tests). The results show that Green Financing, Green Technologies, and the Environmental Policies have positive impacts on Energy Transition, while Geopolitical Risk is found to have negative impact. The policy framework is designed in a phase-wise manner, so that the impacts of the Geopolitical Risk can be isolated, and the positive impacts of Energy Transition drivers can be maximized. The policy framework is made by keeping the attainment of SDG 7 in its core.
... Los países exportadores de productos agrícolas (Brasil, Argentina y Colombia) tienen las emisiones de GEI de este sector más altas. En Brasil, por ejemplo, la proporción del sector mencionado constituye el 55% del total de emisiones de GEI (en Nicaragua, el 79%) [13]. ...
... • Octaviano et al. (2016) estiman que es factible una reducción de 50% de las emisiones con respecto a 2050, pero con un costo de entre 4% y 11% del pib debido al uso de un impuesto al carbono. ...
... Estos escenarios muestran que el escenario bau es inconsistente con una economía carbono neutral a 2050, mientras que los escenarios ordenado, desordenado y aspiracional permiten alcanzar emisiones per cápita inferiores a 1 o 2 tco 2 te t per cápita, respectivamente, pero con esfuerzos de mitigación significativos (Gráfica 4). Los escenarios simulados para México sugieren que es factible una reducción de 50% de las emisiones a 2050 (Veysey et al., 2016;Landa et al., 2016;Octaviano et al., 2016), lo que es insuficiente para alcanzar una economía carbono neutral. Los escenarios elaborados para las emisiones totales por el ipat muestran que en todos los casos disminuirá la razón de emisiones totales a pib, pero con una importante heterogeneidad (Gráfica 5). ...
El principal objetivo de este artículo es analizar algunos hechos estilizados de la trayectoria de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, y con base en ello construir algunos escenarios prospectivos para México que ilustran la urgencia, la magnitud, los riesgos, las posibilidades y las limitaciones del esfuerzo de mitigación requerido para alcanzar la meta de una economía carbono neutral entre 2050-2070. La construcción de estos escenarios se basa en los modelos IPAT y STIRPAT. Los principales resultados indican que las emisiones de energía (CO2eet) están estrechamente asociadas a la evolución del producto interno bruto (PIBt), del PIBT per cápita, de la población y del consumo de energía, y que el actual proceso de desacoplamiento en la trayectoria de las emisiones de CO2eet provenientes de sus principales variables determinantes es insuficiente para cumplir la meta de una economía carbono neutral para 2050-2070. A fin de alcanzar la meta de una economía carbono neutral entre 2050-2070 es necesario realizar transformaciones estructurales con urgencia y de una gran magnitud, que se reflejen en intensos procesos de reducción de las razones de consumo de energía a PIBt y de emisiones de CO2et a consumo de energía. La actual trayectoria de la economía mexicana donde se posponen los procesos de mitigación conduce a una trayectoria de encadenamiento que reduce la credibilidad del cumplimiento de las metas de descarbonización profunda y está aumentando los riesgos de una transición climática justa.
... In the field of energy and environmental economics, different improved CGE models are widely deployed (Choi et al., 2017;García-León et al., 2021;Rao et al., 2017). Famous examples are GTAP (Moore et al., 2017), AIM/CGE, etc. (Aguiar et al., 2016;Böhringer et al., 2016;Böhringer et al., 2014;Dixon et al., 2020;Fujimori et al., 2017;Octaviano et al., 2016;Peters et al., 2011;Xu and Masui, 2009). However, due to the lack of transparency of models' code and data, many conclusions based on the CGE model are difficult to duplicate. ...
The computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a good instrument for counterfactual analysis. This kind of model is widely used in energy and environmental economics. However, the CGE models used in different studies vary greatly. As the construction of the model is a massive project, and some model settings may be wrong, it is easy to get unreasonable equilibrium solutions. Another, the code and data of most CGE models are not transparent. This paper aims to break the barrier of the CGE model criticized as "black box" and provide researchers with a CGE model with available code and data: China Energy-Environment-Economic Analysis 2.0 (CEEEA2.0) model. Taking carbon tax and energy tax as examples, this paper analyzes the impact of carbon neutrality constraints on China from 2018 to 2060. Compared with the traditional CGE model, this paper describes energy and carbon emissions more closely, couples the environmental cost into the model more scientifically and the embodied carbon emissions in trade, and provides novel counterfactual analysis strategies. In addition, this paper introduces how to extend and adjust the model to facilitate the majority of modelers to build a CGE model according to different needs.
... For several reasons, Brazil plays an important role in global bioenergy production. First, the country is currently a major agricultural producer and features as a major international supplier for agricultural products in the coming decades, including bioenergy feedstocks, both in government and industry projections (FIESP 2015;MAPA 2013;OECD-FAO 2015;USDA 2020) and future scenario studies (Matzenberger et al. 2015;Octaviano et al. 2014). Second, the country is home to one of the most successful cases of bioenergy implementation in the world, with bioenergy having supplied over 20% of the country's annual primary energy consumption for decades (EPE 2019). ...
The usefulness of global integrated assessment model (IAM) results for policy recommendation in specific regions has not been fully assessed to date. This study presents the variation in results across models for a given region, and what might be behind this variation and how model assumptions and structures drive results. Understanding what drives the differences across model results is important for national policy relevance of global scenarios. We focus on the use of bioenergy in Brazil, a country expected to play an important role in future bioenergy production. We use results of the Stanford University Energy Modeling Forum’s 33rd Study (EMF-33) model comparison exercise to compare and assess projections of Brazil’s bioenergy pathways under climate mitigation scenarios to explore how 10 global IAMs compare to recent trends in the country. We find that, in their current form, global IAMs have limited potential to supply robust insights into regional mitigation strategies. Our results suggest fertile ground for a new research agenda to improve regional representation in global IAMs with improved spatial and technological resolutions.
