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Our analysis included areas in the northern Great Plains states of Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming (gray) with grasslands as potential natural vegetation (yellow) as identified by Kuchler (1964) and digitized by Augustine et al. (2021)
Source publication
Context
Grasslands of the North American Great Plains are among the world’s most imperiled ecosystems. Determining landscapes at risk of grassland loss will benefit grassland conservation programs by enabling prioritization of parcels for acquisition.
Objectives
We hypothesized that gradients in the amount of grass in local landscapes resulting fr...
Citations
... Subsequently, it has been listed as threatened under the Species at Risk Act in Canada and the Endangered Species Act in the United States. Estimated grassland loss from historic levels varies with grassland type and location but ranges from 70% to 99% in mixed-and tallgrass prairie ecosystems (Samson and Knopf, 1994;Lark et al., 2015;Niemuth et al., 2022). Grassland conversion is expected to continue as technology, agricultural subsidies, new crop varieties, and altered climate enable conversion of additional previously uncultivated lands (GAO (Government Accountability Office), 2007; Stephens et al., 2008;Rashford et al., 2011;Lark et al., 2015;Otto et al., 2018). ...
... Because of its designation as a federally listed species, the spatial model for Dakota skipper can be included in parcel assessment for acquisition of perpetual grassland easements in the US Prairie Pothole Region (USFWS (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service), 2016). Importantly, the model can be combined with other data layers showing risk of conversion (e.g., Niemuth et al., 2022) or biological value for other species to increase the value of conservation acquisitions. Management can also be optimized by considering factors that influence presence and persistence of pollinator populations such as patch size, inter-patch distances, and site-level management (Britten and Glasford, 2002;McIntire et al., 2007;Dover and Settele, 2009;Niemuth et al., 2021); these considerations are integral to recovery planning efforts, which emphasize habitat size and connectivity when determining population health and the overall status of the species (USFWS (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service), 2021). ...
Species distribution models are useful conservation planning tools for at-risk species, especially if they are linked to planning efforts, conservation delivery, and a changing environment. The Dakota skipper (Hesperia dacotae) is an endemic butterfly of mixed and tallgrass prairie of the northern Great Plains that is listed as federally threatened in the United States and Canada. We modeled broad-scale habitat suitability for the Dakota skipper by relating occurrence observations collected via non-probabilistic population surveys and a stratified sample of pseudo-absences to environmental predictors using a machine learning approach (i.e. Random Forest classification model). Predictors were summarized at two local scales and one landscape scale to reflect a potential spatial hierarchy of settlement responses. We used recursive feature elimination to select the top 25 covariates from a suite of predictor variables related to climate, topography, vegetation cover, biomass, surface reflectance, disturbance history, and soil characteristics. The top model included six bioclimatic, one soil, and 18 local- and landscape-scale vegetation variables and indicated an association with undisturbed grasslands with higher perennial grass and forb cover and biomass. The model performed well, with kappa and AUC estimates of 0.92 and 0.99, respectively, for 20% of data withheld for validation. To understand how climate change might affect Dakota skipper distribution, we applied the model using future 30-year bioclimatic predictions. Predicted suitable habitat declined and the climate envelope associated with Dakota skipper occurrence shifted north into Canada. While it is unknown to what degree the bioclimatic relationships in the model are biologically meaningful or are simply correlative with our non-probabilistic sample of occurrences, our results present an urgency to improve data collection for Dakota skipper populations and better understand climatic relationships, as climate change could have profound effects on populations and conservation planning. Regardless of climate or model uncertainty, our results demonstrate the importance of maintaining sufficient quantities and quality of grass on the landscape to support populations of Dakota skipper.
... Grasslands are among the most impacted natural ecosystems globally due to agricultural conversion, energy development, other human development, invasive plant species, and encroachment of woody vegetation (Bernath-Plaisted and Koper, 2016;Carbutt et al., 2017;Scholtz and Twidwell, 2022). In midcontinent North America more than 80% of the historical grassland extent has been converted to other uses since Euro-American settlement (Samson and Knopf, 1994;Niemuth et al., 2022). As a result, avian populations that rely on grassland ecosystems have experienced the greatest declines relative to other avian groups (Rosenberg et al., 2019;Sauer et al., 2020;NABCI, 2022). ...
Grasslands are among the most impacted ecosystems globally. In the midcontinent of North America, a > 80% loss of grasslands has made their conservation a major priority for resource managers. Grassland ecosystems evolved under periodic disturbances; consequently, grassland management often involves regular actions such as grazing, haying, or burning to maintain ecosystem integrity. The timing of such practices has direct implications on grassland ecology, agricultural economics, and survival and fecundity of grassland nesting birds (hereafter grassland birds). We conducted a meta-analysis on the nesting phenology of grassland birds throughout North America, focusing on nest-survival literature. We constructed a well-fitting model to predict median date of expected nest departure (hereafter fledge date) for grassland birds across the midcontinent. Predictions from our model demonstrate considerable spatial variation in median nesting phenology that is predictable using a spatially explicit spring phenology index. Median fledge dates were 8 or 13 days earlier in years of extreme weather conditions (dry or wet, respectively) than in years of average conditions. Species that generally nest in taller vegetation tended to have later median nest phenologies than those using shorter vegetation. Our results incorporate the most rigorous information available in the literature on nesting phenology of 36 grassland bird species and improve information available to managers about nesting phenology of grassland birds in the midcontinent of North America. Our predictions approximate the day when one-half of the nesting efforts would be complete for a given area within the midcontinent grasslands and can inform management and conservation decisions about the timing of management actions in grassland ecosystems.
The future of wetland bird habitat and populations is intrinsically connected with the conservation of rangelands in North America. Many rangeland watersheds are source drainage for some of the highest functioning extant wetlands. The Central and Pacific Flyways have significant overlap with available rangelands in western North America. Within these flyways, the importance of rangeland management has become increasingly recognized by those involved in wetland bird conservation. Within the array of wetland bird species, seasonal habitat needs are highly variable. During the breeding period, nest survival is one of the most important drivers of population growth for many wetland bird species and rangelands often provide quality nesting cover. Throughout spring and fall, rangeland wetlands provide key forage resources that support energetic demands needed for migration. In some areas, stock ponds developed for livestock water provide migration stopover and wintering habitat, especially in times of water scarcity. In the Intermountain West, drought combined with water demands from agriculture and human population growth are likely headed to an ecological tipping point for wetland birds and their habitat in the region. In the Prairie Pothole Region, conversion of rangeland and draining of wetlands for increased crop production remains a significant conservation issue for wetland birds and other wildlife. In landscapes dominated by agricultural production, rangelands provide some of the highest value ecosystem services, including water quality and wetland function. Recent research has shown livestock grazing, if managed properly, is compatible and at times beneficial to wetland bird habitat needs. Either directly, or indirectly, wetland bird populations and their habitat needs are supported by healthy rangelands. In the future, rangeland and wetland bird managers will benefit from increased collaboration to aid in meeting ultimate conservation objectives.
