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Orbital elements characterizing changes of the Earth's orbit and directions of its axis in the space. The elongation degree of the elliptic Earth orbit is expressed by eccentricity e = √ a 2 − b 2 a where a and b are the lengths of the greater and smaller half-axes of the elliptic Earth orbit. With a circular orbit (a = b, the Sun (S) is in the center of the circle), e = 0. Elongation of the ellipse is achieved through reduction of the smaller half-axis b, the length of the greater half-axis remaining unchanged. In reality, the position of the Sun virtually does not change, the Sun remaining in the focus of the orbit, which shifts relative to the Sun. Over the last million years, the angle ε changed from 22 • to 24.5 •. Arrow indicates precessional changes of the direction of the Earth's axis in the space.
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... early as the 19th century, three orbital elements that cause insolation changes were known to exist. These are (i) the eccentricity e of the Earth's elliptical orbit, serving as the measure of its elongation, (ii) the angle e between the Earth's axis and the normal to the ecliptic plane, and (iii) the precession of the Earth's axis ( Figure 1). A circular orbit has e = 0, with the ellipse degenerating to the straight line e = 1. ...
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... this case, seasonal climate contrasts are stronger in the Southern than in the Northern Hemisphere. In another 11.5 ka (a half period of climatic precession), as the Earth is at aphelion, it will be its Southern Hemisprere to face the Sun (Figure 1). Hence, the strongest climatic contrasts-i.e., long cold winters and short warm summers-will be observed in the Northern Hemisphere. ...
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... at the OI curve denote oxygen isotope stages and sub-stages. Black rectangles on the left mark position of the maximal glaciation stages, after Milankovitch [1939]: Würm (W 1, 2, 3), Riss (R 1, 2), Mindel (M 1, 2), and Günz (G 1, 2). The ordinate ic time (thousand yr B.P.). ...
Context 4
... at the OI curve denote oxygen isotope stages and sub-stages. Black rectangles on the left mark position of the maximal glaciation stages, after Milankovitch [1939]: Würm (W 1, 2, 3), Riss (R 1, 2), Mindel (M 1, 2), and Günz (G 1, 2). The ordinate ic time (thousand yr B.P.). ...
Context 5
... at the OI curve denote oxygen isotope stages and sub-stages. Black rectangles on the left mark position of the maximal glaciation stages, after Milankovitch [1939]: Würm (W 1, 2, 3), Riss (R 1, 2), Mindel (M 1, 2), and Günz (G 1, 2). The ordinate ic time (thousand yr B.P.). ...
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... is thus reasonable to assume a delay in the climatic response to its corresponding orbital signal, caused by the huge inertia of the Earth climate system. It makes sense to determine this delay from the best dated global cli- mate events, such as the Holocene optimum (5-6 ka ago) and the last glaciation maximum (21-22 ka ago). Compar- ing these dates with the corresponding OC diagram max- imum and minimum shows that the climatic response was delayed some 5-6 ka [Bol'shakov, 2000a[Bol'shakov, , 2001b. ...
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Citations
... Perspectives critical of the Milankovitch theory, including inconsistencies in applying its principles (e.g. Bol'Shakov, 2003, 2008Puetz et al., 2016;Connolly et al., 2021) and reputed failures to acknowledge Croll sufficiently (Bol'shakov and Kuzmin, 2015;and see below), are also to be found. ...
The year 2021 marked the bicentenary of the birth of James Croll (1821–1890), the self‐educated son of a crofter‐stonemason, whose life was characterised by a dizzying range of occupations and homes, poor health and financial concerns, and yet he became a pioneer of orbital dynamics and ice age climate change with an impressive record of publication. Drawing upon archival information and recently published observations, this paper explores selected aspects of Croll's biography, his scientific connections and controversies, and that area of his life relevant to Quaternary science. He was a 19th century polymath whose multifaceted contributions have been a catalyst for subsequent systems‐based climate science on the grand scale, including the foundations for the seminal work of Milutin Milankovitch on the rhythms of Quaternary environmental change.
... Vice versa, during an increase in obliquity, insolation will rise, and this will cause melting of polar ice. Using the albedo feedback, it is easy to determine the mechanism for the influence of obliquity variations on global climate (Croll, 1875;Bol'shakov, 2003;Bol'shakov and Kuzmin, 2014). ...
... The geochemical theory also makes the more common orbital theory of palaeoclimate unnecessary. In light of this situation, we reference a new concept of orbital palaeoclimatic theory (Bol'shakov 2003(Bol'shakov , 2008 which is free of the contradictions and drawbacks of Milankovitch's theory. In this concept, mechanisms of climatic influence of particular orbital elements are presented with the provision that insolation variations for the full annual period and all latitudes must be considered. ...
... Because of this, it seems logical not to begin the development of a new theory when the possibilities within the previous one (i.e., orbital theory of palaeoclimate) still exist. What causes confusion is that Paillard (2015) does not address papers where a solution to the 100,000 yr periodicity problem without control by CO 2 is addressed (e.g., Bol'shakov, 2003;Ganopolski and Calov, 2011). Paillard (2015:19) also presents other reasons to modify significantly orbital theory of palaeoclimate: "… the astronomical theory certainly needs a geochemical component to account for observed paleoclimatic changes. ...
... It is also worth noting that the effect of precession on monthly or daily insolation values is much higher than influence from obliquity. This constitutes one of the most significant controversies in paleoclimate theory among the Milankovitch followers, because the largest by amplitude precession harmonics in the orbital insolation signal is subdued in paleoclimatic records [Bol'shakov, 2003a[Bol'shakov, , 2008Cleaveland and Herbert, 2007;Hays et al., 1976;Imbrie et al., 1993;Karner et al., 2002]. Discrete insolation curves, nevertheless, are widely employed for interpretation of paleoclimatic data and for modeling. ...
... For paleoclimatic interpretation of empirical data, modeling, and the creation of a diagram that qualitatively accounts for global paleoclimatic changes, it is essential to consider annual (i.e. for all seasons or months) and global (i.e. for all latitudes) insolation changes. It is also necessary to develop for each orbital element individual feedback mechanisms which transform insolation signals to climatic changes; it is shown, for example, by Bol'shakov [2003aBol'shakov [ , 2003bBol'shakov [ , 2008. A comprehensive solution accounting for these essential ingredients has not yet been done completely due to following circumstances: 1) an incomplete knowledge of feedback mechanisms, where the most complicated issues are the influence of clouds and aerosols; and 2) an enormous amount of computing time necessary for calculations of paleoclimatic models in which all of the above mentioned factors are taken into account. ...
... The possibility of appreciable and direct global climatic influence from variations in eccentricity, along with the impact of obliquity and precessional changes, has been explained by structural differences of consequent insolation signals [Bol'shakov, 2003a[Bol'shakov, , 2003b]. As noted above, the global annual changes of the insolation caused by variations in obliquity and precession are equal to zero. ...
... One may agree with the above statement, although it is not clear from whom the author defends Milan kovi . (The publications [5,12,13,22] in which Milankovi 's theory was consistently criticized and which, in particular, used the same arguments, includ ing phrases used by Roe, are not mentioned in his arti cle.) Indeed, a correct formulation of Milankovi 's theory is, reasonably, a perplexing question. ...
The background of the orbital theory of paleoclimate, the creation of which is not yet completed, is reviewed in the article below. Can this theory lay the foundation for the development of correct paleoclimatic models that would provide for an adequate idea about the operation of our planet’s climatic machine? The authors attempt to answer this question and outline the trend of its further improvement.
... However, the same data showed significant contradictions between Milankovitch theory and empirical data [Bassinot et al., 1994;Berger, 1999;Elkibbi and Rial, 2001;Hays et al., 1976;Imbrie et al., 1993;Paillard, 2001, and others]. Major contradictions of Milankovitch theory are the following [Berger, 1999;Bol'shakov, 2001Bol'shakov, , 2003aBol'shakov, , 2003cElkibbi and Rial, 2001;Hays et al., 1976;Imbrie et al., 1993;Paillard, 2001]. [17] (1) Climatic cyclicity of the Brunhes chron is primarily determined by the 100-kyr periodicity, assigned to eccentricity variations, whose direct influence has not been discussed in Milankovitch theory. ...
... [28] However, I believe that the more correct line of attack on the Milankovitch theory problems is the critical analysis of its main statements and the revealing of its main advantages and drawbacks in the course the further investigation. Such analysis was made in the following publications [Bol'shakov, 2001[Bol'shakov, , 2003a[Bol'shakov, , 2003c. As a result, apart from its certain value due to mathematically accurate calculations of insolation variations, the following major drawbacks of Milankovitch theory have been defined. ...
... It is the full annual insolation cycle for which the specific mechanism of precession climatic forcing should be found. One can not exclude that it is quite possible that Köppen's notion (long cool summer and short mild winter favouring the glaciation) might hold true to the northern hemisphere and the opposite one by Croll will be valid for southern hemisphere [Berger, 1980;Bol'shakov, 2003aBol'shakov, , 2003c. ...
... The age of the MBB defined by orbital tuning, and supported by numerical dating at about 780 ky (Tauxe et al., 1996). This position and age of the MBB were also supported by good correlation of the OI scale with orbital climatic diagram, constructed on the basis of the new concept of the orbital theory of paleoclimate (Bol'shakov and Bol'shakov, 1999;Bol'shakov, 2001bBol'shakov, , 2003a. (The new concept of the orbital (astronomical) theory is free from the drawbacks of the Milankovitch theory, and from its discrepancies with empirical data.) ...
The application of magnetic susceptibility and paleomagnetic methods to the study of loess deposits is analyzed. The new view on the use of magnetic susceptibility measurements for paleoclimatic reconstructions and identification of the exact position of the Matuyama–Brunhes geomagnetic polarity boundary in loess–soil sequences is proposed. It is shown that the magnetic susceptibility is of limited value for paleoclimatic interpretations and geological correlation of loess–soil outcrops, and its interpretation should be specially substantiated in each concrete case.
Based upon research results over the past five decades, there has been a general acceptance that the ice ages were initiated by astronomical phenomenon. Specifically, marine, ice and terrestrial paleoclimate data have supported elements of the Milankovitch astronomical theory of the ice ages. However, there remain unresolved problems between the empirical findings and theory. The 100 thousand year problem has been the subject of extensive research since a 100 thousand year cycle that matches the Earth orbit eccentricity period dominates the frequencies found in paleoclimate records. Yet, eccentricity produces an insignificant variation in annual solar energy. Other problems include the Stage 11 problem, the missing interglacials problem, how glaciation is sustained over multiple tens of thousands of years and synchronous hemispheric glaciation. I shall show these problems are resolved by modification of the prevailing Milankovitch theory. In particular, two elements of the theory need modification. One is the limitation of eccentricity's role and the other assuming that glaciation results only from cool summer conditions. By applying the Solar Energy Invariance law to define e-seasons, how eccentricity provides conditions for glaciation is demonstrated. The results show eccentricity variations provide significant solar energy variations at the top of the earth's atmosphere to produce glaciation that is global. Global glaciation results in colder winter glaciation occurring in one hemisphere simultaneous with cool summer glaciation in the other hemisphere. Analysis with these modifications resolves each of the problems.
This paper describes a new approach to orbital tuning for the adjustment of proxy-based paleocli-mate chronologies; the approach involves the synchronization of reconstructed paleotemperatures with quasi-temperature series derived from data on changes in insolation at the top of the atmosphere. The time lag between insolation and induced temperature reaction is estimated using a physical model describing the relationship between changes in the ground surface heat flux and ground surface temperature. The resulting time-lag estimates are in good agreement with the results of empirical analysis of independent age markers.
Chapter 2 treats simple models of climate dynamics. It begins by describing radiative transfer in the atmosphere, with particular attention to the simple case of a grey, one-dimensional atmosphere. Following this, the convective temperature structure of the troposphere is discussed. The latter part of the chapter deals with energy balance models, in particular with a view to understanding ice age causes. This introduces successively the ice-albedo feedback mechanism, the carbon cycle in atmosphere and ocean, and the rôle of bicarbonate buffering in the ocean.
James Croll (1821–1890) was a Scottish scientist who made major, although still largely unrecognised, contributions to the theory of the effects of variations in the Earth's orbit on the global climate. He was the first to identify the importance of positive feedbacks in the climate system, especially the ice-albedo feedback, and he placed the astrochronological method on a sound footing. Croll's theory was the first to predict multiple ice ages. However, it was unable to place the end of the most recent glaciation more recently than 80,000 years ago, and as evidence accumulated throughout the 19th century for a much more recent date than this Croll's theory fell into neglect. We argue that this was particularly unfortunate since several of his key ideas were forgotten, and that this has delayed the development of the orbital theory of paleoclimate.
