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A multicriteria scenario based methodology is used to select among strategies for communicating risk to the public about liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals. The strategies provide the public with information on the risks of the deployment and operation of LNG terminals. A selection of the strategies will improve public understanding of the risk-...
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Context 1
... and Mexico have a number of terminal projects in some phase of the process. The LNG projects approved by the regulatory agencies in USA, Canada and Mexico are listed in Table 1 and Table 2. State, county and municipal agencies also play active role to ensure safe and environmentally sound construction and operation of LNG industry facilities. ...
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Liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations and facilities are growing in scale and number in many countries driven by the key role of natural gas for increasing regional and local energy security, particularly for electric power generation. While the industry has achieved remarkably high levels of safety, the reduction of residual risks associated with...
Citations
... Other areas of application for the methodology include dealing with climate change (3,4,33,49) on a national or regional scale or implementing energy security plans for nations (50) or organizations such as the US Army (51) . In both of these applications, there is a need to account for emergent conditions, including potential catastrophic events (52) , and multiple relevant stakeholders in decision making. ...
The Afghanistan National Development Strategy identified billions of dollars of needs for transportation, water, energy, telecommunications, and other necessary infrastructure development for the rebuilding of Afghanistan. With economic sustainability as a primary aim, the coordination and prioritization of investments has been a challenge in part because of Afghanistan's volatile security situation along with the intricacies of the negotiating and coordinating efforts of numerous stakeholders. An understanding of the contributions of infrastructure systems and associated projects to the national development strategy is needed. This paper formulates a scenario-informed multicriteria approach to prioritize major project investments for infrastructure development subject to deep, nonprobabilistic uncertainties. The methods are inclusive of stakeholder values and accounts for deep uncertainties in governance, security, economy, environment, workforce, and other topics. The methods are applied in Afghanistan's Nangarhar province to assist in the selection among twenty-seven candidate infrastructure projects that are vulnerable to potential refugee immigration among other emergent conditions. The paper describes the relationships of selected projects to strategic goals while facilitating collaboration among government and nongovernment investors, donors, technologists, and other stakeholders.
... Scenario analysis has been recently integrated with MCDA (Karvetski et al., 2009(Karvetski et al., , 2011Martinez et al., 2010;Schroeder and Lambert, 2011;Ram et al., 2010;Montibeller et al., 2006;Goodwin and Wright, 2001;Parnell et al., 1999). Including scenarios into MCDA is important for recognising the high levels of future uncertainty and including the perspectives and analyses of the civil and systems engineers, environmentalists, biologists, and other individuals from private and government organisations that are relevant stakeholders for strategic planning related to climate change (Karvetski et al., 2011;Briggs, 2009;Jamieson and Briggs, 2009;Tompkins et al., 2008;Linkov et al., 2006b). ...
Climate change has the potential to impose severe stress on coastal environments. Alaskan coastlines are especially vulnerable to erosion and other changes that have led to significant damage and threats to infrastructure, human health and safety, and economic prosperity. This paper describes an integration of scenario analysis with multi-criteria decision analysis to prioritise the vulnerability of communities for the development of infrastructure protection and other actions. The approach allows stakeholders to account for uncertainty in the prioritisation and also includes value judgements of the multiple relevant stakeholders. We present a case study that evaluates several climate change scenarios and formulates metrics for finding scenarios that most impact priorities. Scenarios including sea-level rise, increased frequency of forest fires, permafrost melting, and others are used. We find the increased frequency of forest fires to be the most upsetting scenario along with four communities that are identified as highly vulnerable and not sensitive to the scenarios.
... A methodology has been developed to identify critical scenarios and to study the robustness of portfolios of coastal protections to a variety of assumptions of scenarios of sea-level rise including the following: economy, society, environment, meteorology, ecology, and others. The approach is generally applicable to decision making concerning engineering sys- tems that are subject to scenario uncertainties [33], [34]. The methodology has used multiple performance criteria to quantify the influences of scenarios to the performance assessment of alternative portfolios. ...
This paper develops a methodology for eliciting shifts in preference across future scenarios in the performance assessment of infrastructure policies and investments. The methodology quantifies the robustness of alternative portfolios across a variety of scenarios and identifies the scenarios that greatly affect the assessments. An innovation of the methodology is to elicit, for each scenario, only a few relative increases or decreases in importance of selected terms of the value function, which is more efficient than a full elicitation of the value function for each scenario. The identification of critical scenarios via our methodology can be used to focus resource-intensive and potentially costly modeling activities. The methodology integrates preference orders, centroid weights, and the Borda method. In a demonstration, the methodology assesses the relative sea level and other climate-change scenarios that could affect the performance of coastal protections.
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Research and development for energy systems (e.g.,smart and secure microgrids for industrial and military installations and solar cogeneration technologies) must account for deep uncertainties and emergent conditions including economic, regulatory, technological, mission, demographic, and environmental or ecological, among others. Deep uncertainties involve structural and qualitative perspectives or trends that change the game. Recent literature has identified emergent conditions and deep uncertainties that are most influential to decision criteria priorities among existing energy assets and systems. This paper introduces a practical method to help prioritize strategic energy research and development investments and minimize opportunity loss or program risk for investments with a long time horizon. There are a number of interesting observations that can be perceived from this method including robustness, scenario influence, risk, and opportunity. The method is recommended to help achieve consensus of program managers, installation commanders, energy managers, technology vendors, urban planners, and customers and tenants. A quantitative demonstration is provided that addresses five scenarios of deep uncertainty, ten performance criteria, and six investment portfolios. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) operations and facilities are growing in scale and number in many countries driven by the key role of natural gas for increasing regional and local energy security, particularly for electric power generation. While the industry has achieved remarkably high levels of safety, the reduction of residual risks associated with the unloading, storage and distribution in LNG terminals continues to be a top priority. This paper develops a risk benefit cost framework to support facilities planners in the selection and prioritisation of independent protection layers (IPLs), which are identified by an existing commonly adopted methodology known as layer of protection analysis (LOPA). Six incident scenarios are used to analyse and compare feasible process and equipment configurations that correspond to several IPLs. A benefit and cost comparison of the IPLs is made based on estimates of the potential reductions of the facility unavailability and the annualised costs of implementation. A tutorial example suggests how LNG facility managers would use the developed framework beyond the typical LOPA analysis to select and prioritise IPLs and other risk reduction activities.
Energy security is the assured access to reliable supplies of energy and the ability to protect and deliver sufficient energy to meet operational needs. Energy managers for a military or industrial installation are tasked to select a preferred strategy or investment of energy sources and technologies to provide adequate energy quality and quantity for critical missions over the coming decades. The energy managers must also consider objectives related to integrating multiple fuel sources, reducing energy consumption, reducing foreign energy inputs, and using renewable resources. The ability to pair energy sources and technologies allows for innovation in energy planning and investment. However, emergent and future conditions such as regulations, energy availabilities, technology advances, geopolitical events, catastrophic weather and destructive events, and others describe the uncertainty and sources of risk inherent in the planning setting and these conditions must be considered in prioritizing investment. For large installations, stakeholders that are representatives from the utility companies, building tenants, high-level governing officials, and other relevant participants need to be included in the planning process and are integral for identifying the relevant emergent and future conditions that should be considered. Some emergent conditions may be evidence-based projections derived from geographic, regulatory, geopolitical, and other driving forces. Other emergent conditions could reflect the advocacy positions of the various stakeholders. This effort describes recent efforts for including stakeholder scenarios of emergent and future conditions into a formal multicriteria decision model to understand how different assumptions of the future alter a prioritization of investment alternatives. The approach identifies what scenarios most affect the prioritization of investment alternatives, and what investment alternatives are most opportunistic or vulnerable across- - the scenarios. Influential scenarios then become a focus for appropriate research and modeling, leading to innovation in selecting a preferred investment alternative that is robust across the stakeholder scenarios. Elements of a case study demonstration prioritizing energy security investment alternatives for three buildings on a military installation are presented. The case study describes the relevant planning criteria and a set of scenarios that is used to identify opportunities for innovation. The results of the demonstration are a select subset of high performing investment alternatives and a small set of scenarios in need of additional modeling and negotiation. The approach and case study elements are of interest to government, military, and industry representatives engaged in the planning and preliminary engineering of energy security systems for the purposes of technology innovation, negotiation, and investment.
Negotiation for permitting and regulatory compliance of energy facilities typically involves complex decision making over multiple planning horizons involving several organizations with possibly competing goals. Delays in compliance negotiation have the potential to undermine or deter the ability for countries and agencies to increase energy capacities and improve overall energy security. There is need for a multi-scale modeling framework with recognition of multiple time horizons, geographies, and organizational entities influencing the system. This paper presents a multi-scale analysis of the review and permitting process for repeated stages of interaction between a private energy operator and an energy regulatory agency. The interaction is modeled as a finitely repeated incomplete information game with identification of steady-state equilibrium conditions. The result is a strategy-guiding tool that can be used to identify potential incentives for cooperation among a variety of decision makers including energy policy decision makers, regulatory agencies, and project developers. The tools are described via a simplified demonstration applied to the permitting of liquefied natural gas terminals in various stages of their lifecycle. There is wide applicability for regulation, approval, deployment, and monitoring of infrastructure and environment in the energy industry.
Coordination and layering of models to identify risks in complex systems such as large-scale infrastructure of energy, water, and transportation is of current interest across application domains. Such infrastructures are increasingly vulnerable to adjacent commercial and residential land development. Land development can compromise the performance of essential infrastructure systems and increase the costs of maintaining or increasing performance. A risk-informed approach to this topic would be useful to avoid surprise, regret, and the need for costly remedies. This article develops a layering and coordination of models for risk management of land development affecting infrastructure systems. The layers are: system identification, expert elicitation, predictive modeling, comparison of investment alternatives, and implications of current decisions for future options. The modeling layers share a focus on observable factors that most contribute to volatility of land development and land use. The relevant data and expert evidence include current and forecasted growth in population and employment, conservation and preservation rules, land topography and geometries, real estate assessments, market and economic conditions, and other factors. The approach integrates to a decision framework of strategic considerations based on assessing risk, cost, and opportunity in order to prioritize needs and potential remedies that mitigate impacts of land development to the infrastructure systems. The approach is demonstrated for a 5,700-mile multimodal transportation system adjacent to 60,000 tracts of potential land development.
