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Climate changes projected for 2100 and beyond could result in a worldwide race for adaptation resources on a scale never seen before. This paper describes a model for estimating the cost and materials of elevating coastal seaport infrastructure in the United States to prevent damage from sea level rise associated with climate change. This study pil...
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Climate adaptation requires leadership from a diverse group of stakeholders to shift investment priorities and generate political will for long-term planning. This is especially true for seaport stakeholders. Ports serve as access points to goods and services from around the world, promoting a higher and more robust quality of life. However, with t...
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... How seaports and maritime supply chains will adapt to future climate change is an open question 5-7,12,37-39 with material implications 40,41 . A recent conceptual experiment considered the volume of material needed to raise 100 US seaports by two metres, and found that such retrofitting would require 704 million m 3 of filla quantity equivalent to the total estimated volume of sand delivered by all beach nourishment projects in the US since 1972 42 . ...
... Not all fill material used in land reclamation is sand, but sand (with particular granular characteristics) is the essential ingredient in concrete, and surging demand for construction-grade sand has triggered a deepening environmental crisis related to sand mining [43][44][45] . Because the geography of suitable fill material is heterogeneous, the projected scale of construction required for seaport adaptation and expansion globally could result in an unprecedented "worldwide race for adaptation resources" 40,41 . Coastal reclamation itself is an ancient engineering technology, yet the current scale, rate, and global extent of coastal reclamation is a novel phenomenon 14 . ...
As global maritime traffic increases, seaports grow to accommodate and compete for higher volumes of trade throughput. However, growth trajectories of seaport footprints around the world have gone unmeasured, likely because of a lack of readily available spatio-temporal data. Here, we use geospatial analysis of global satellite imagery from 1990–2020 to show that 65 seaports among the world’s top 100 container ports, as ranked by reported throughput, have been expanding rapidly seaward. Collectively, these seaports have added approximately 978 km² in gross port area in three decades through coastal land reclamation. We also find that the relationship between footprint expansion and throughput volume is highly variable among seaports. Understanding patterns of seaport expansion in space and time informs global assessments of critical infrastructure and supply chain vulnerability to climate-driven hazard. Seaport expansion also sets up complex trade-offs in the context of environmental impacts and climate adaptation.
... Long-term adaptation in port environments, such as upgrading infrastructure as SLR, is essential to prevent damage from SLR caused by climate change. SLR projections for 2100 and beyond, focusing on 100 significant ports in the United States with 704 million m 3 of landfill is required to raise land and infrastructure by 2 m, and about $57-78 billion are needed according to 2012 values (Becker et al., 2017). In addition to the economic and infrastructure damage, this situation negatively affects livelihoods and increases health risks (Kahana et al., 2016;Vineis et al., 2011). ...
Bosphorus is a narrow water passage connecting the Marmara Sea and the Black Sea through a sea level balance current flow. In this study, change points in mean and in variance and trend analysis are performed to reveal whether sea level is changing or not. Moreover, the simple linear regression is calculated to explain the relationships among sea level data in the three stations located in the Black Sea, the Marmara Sea and Bosphorus. The Turkish National Sea Level Monitoring System (TUDES) measures sea water level at each 15-minute periods in three stations in order to minimize the effect of turbulence. The sea level in the coastal area of Istanbul city is most populous region with its highly economic importance. The most important reason for this is the serious decrease in the amount of water discharged into the Black Sea due to dams and excessive water usage. The three sea level stations have no change points on the average of the whole data. The change points in variance are depicted especially in gap data years and especially around year 2018. While the difference in the sea level of the Istanbul and Sile stations contain seasonality, the difference between the other stations has a sinusoidal component. While this study lights on understanding the sea level characteristics of the Bosphorus, it also emphasizes the importance of accuracy, completeness and long-term measurement data requirement.
... It is possible to raise houses on pilings, but larger buildings and infrastructure would need to be dismantled and rebuilt after placing fill to raise elevations. 18 Injecting solid particles into the subsurface can create hydraulic fractures that are propped open by the injected particles, and this will permanently raise the elevation of the overlying ground surface. We proposed 13 that injecting solid particles could be used to raise elevations and reduce flood risk as an alternative to raising buildings on pilings or using surface fill. ...
Geologic carbon storage currently implies that CO2 is injected into reservoirs more than 1 km deep, but this concept of geologic storage can be expanded to include the injection of solid, carbon-bearing particles into geologic formations that are one to two orders of magnitude shallower than conventional storage reservoirs. Wood is half carbon, available in large quantities at a modest cost, and can be milled into particles and injected as a slurry. We demonstrate the feasibility of shallow geologic storage of carbon by a field experiment, and the injection process also raises the ground surface. The resulting CO2 storage and ground uplift rates upscale to a technique that could contribute to the mitigation of climate change by storing carbon as well as helping to adapt to flooding risks by elevating the ground surface above flood levels. A life-cycle assessment indicates that CO2 emissions caused by shallow geologic storage of carbon are a small fraction of the injected carbon.
... For lower frequency events (e.g. coastal floods), interventions such as elevating port boundaries or access roads have been considered (Becker et al. 2017;Hanson and Nicholls 2020). Taking critical infrastructure dependencies into account also widens the scope of interventions. ...
Ports are embedded in different networks, including the local critical infrastructure network, the regional hinterland transport network and the global maritime transport network. These networks are exposed to a variety of natural hazards, which cause disruptions that can propagate to other network components, resulting in wider supply chain losses. However, the risks of such indirect network disruptions, or systemic risks, are often not considered in risk analyses of ports. We propose a systemic risk framework for different networks interconnected through ports, and describe the state-of-the-art risk modelling approaches to quantify systemic risks. In addition, we present a port risk layering framework that can help identify how resilience against systemic risks can be improved. As climate change will likely increase the occurrence of natural hazards to ports and transport networks, efforts to enhance system-wide resilience should be considered, alongside port adaptation, to prevent exacerbation of supply chain losses in the future.
... Although not yet quantified for the SIDS, a study showed that adapting the 100 largest ports in the United States to 2 m of SLR would require 700 million m 3 of fill material (Becker et al 2017). ...
Small Island Developing States (SIDS) face enormous sustainability challenges such as heavy reliance on imports to meet basic needs, tenuous resource availability, coastal squeeze, and reduced waste absorption capacity. At the same time, the adverse effects of global environmental change such as global warming, extreme events, and outbreaks of pandemics significantly hinder SIDS’s progress towards sustainable development. This paper makes a conceptual contribution by framing the vulnerability of small islands from the perspective of socio-metabolic risk (SMR). SMR is defined as systemic risk associated with the availability of critical resources, the integrity of material circulation, and the (in)equitable distribution of derived products and societal services in a socio-ecological system. We argue that specific configurations and combinations of material stocks and flows on islands and their ‘resistance to change’ contribute to the system’s proliferation of SMR. For better or for worse, these influence the system’s ability to consistently and effectively deliver societal services necessary for survival. By positioning SMR as a subset of systemic risk, the paper illustrates SMRs and tipping points on small islands using insights from three sectors: water, waste, and infrastructure. We also identify effective leverage points and adaptation strategies for building system resilience on small islands. In conclusion, our synthesis suggests that governing SMR on SIDS would mean governing socio-metabolic flows to avoid potential disruptions in the circulation of critical resources and the maintenance of vital infrastructures and services while inducing interventions towards positive social tipping dynamics. Such interventions will need strategies to reconfigure resource-use patterns and associated services that are sustainable and socially equitable.
... Thus, G/K is a more reasonable representation of how well a port is protected rather than only G, because compared with a smaller port, a larger port would need proportionally more protection to reach the same protection level (e.g., height of seawall). Consistent with the insights of Port of Singapore, Becker et al. (2017), using a generic model, show that to elevate a port to protect against sea level rise, protection cost is proportional to port capacity, and thus protection level (i.e., elevation height) is proportional to G/K. Thus, G/K, as a proxy for port protection level, is a key factor that determines the port's vulnerability. ...
Seaports are crucial linkages in supply chains and account for over 80% of global trade by volume and 70% by value. They are also vulnerable to extreme weather events and sea level rise driven by climate change. Choosing the timing and scale of adaptation measures is challenging due to uncertainty about the rate of climate change, the frequency of disasters, and the irreversibility of investment in physical infrastructure. In addition to adaptation to climate change, ports must invest in throughput capacity to accommodate rising traffic volumes, reduce congestion, and maintain their long-term competitiveness. Ports also face uncertainty about shipping demand, which fluctuates with the business cycle, trade relations between countries, and other events. With this as background, we investigate the optimal timing and amount of port protection and capacity investments, as well as port charges, given uncertainty about climate-change-related threats and demand. The port gains better information over time, and thus has an option value to waiting. We show that the port charge is a decreasing function of capacity and an increasing function of protection. Capacity and protection are supermodular: a higher capacity warrants more protection, and better protection justifies higher capacity. If the disaster frequency rises, the port reduces its capacity and traffic volume but may increase or decrease protection investment. It prefers to postpone capacity investment if the disaster frequency can fall, but prefers to invest in advance if the climate is likely to get worse. It prefers to postpone protection investment if the disaster frequency changes a lot, or if the disaster frequency is currently low. The port also holds back on capacity and protection if future demand is highly uncertain. The results are largely the same for a landlord port, a service port, and a fully privatized port.
... Nevertheless there is a contrast between "the traditional approaches" and "social approaches" in the CRM concept, the latter of which is based on the use of online platforms to obtain information and shape customer relationships with suppliers. More and more suppliers decide to create their own website in order to support users and their needs, propose personalized solutions tailored merely to specific target groups and collect customer data centrally [2,3]. On-line portals together with the assumptions of the CRM system constitute a conceptual base for process portals. ...
The current focusing of market on customer comfort wdemands that service providers orienconstantly modernize their structures and methods of operation. Due to the progressive digitization of various areas of business activity it is necessary to know and regularly implement up-to-date technological aids available to maintain competitiveness and build long-term relationships with the client. Delivering products to the point of consumption is an extremely important element in the supply chain and transport companies play the role of both intermediaries and service providers. This article is a framework proposal of a methodological solution for entities dealing with transport services in terms of building long-term relationships with the client with the help of modern technologies and methodologies. The findings show strategies and systems with which transport companies can strive to build a competitive offer in the logistics chain. A process portal was proposed as the target solution as an internet base of the transport offer using big data as a means to optimize the service. The study was devoted to analysing multi-criteria decision-making methods with a view to using solutions in the process of developing methodologies for building customer relations in the field of transport services.
... It is this presumption that is at issue when the reality of climate change is considered. For example, estimates of adapting one hundred major commercial coastal seaports for experienced and anticipated sea level rise is between $56-112 billion USD (Becker, Hippe and Mclean 2017). ...
The United States is a coastal nation. More than two-thirds of its population live within coastal states. Many of these developed coastal areas are low-lying, subject to flooding and similar hazards related to sea level rise. Historical policies have incentivized coastal development and redevelopment. And today, as a direct result of sea level rise, ecologically important coastal attributes are being eroded. This paper examines historical and current policies associated with coastal development in the United States. Using a policy evolution analytical framework, specific policies are identified that have incentivized coastal development while simultaneously discounting existing and emerging coastal hazard risks. It then explores the kinds of policy evolutions required to better internalize emerging climate change risks to coastal areas while also supporting the ecological integrity of coastlines. Findings indicate key existing policies supporting coastal development aid in discounting the increasing risks to coastal areas, while also incentivizing the flow of capital for development purposes. The recommendations from this analysis can be generally applied to coastal areas under the dual considerations of development and coastal ecosystem integrity in an era of climate change.
... Storm surges as well as flooding from incremental tidal flooding stemming from sea level rise have the potential to impact port operations. Marine port terminals vary in their physical exposure and susceptibility to flooding impacts (Izaguirre et al. 2020;Becker, Hippe, and McLean 2017;Esteban et al. 2020). With large ports having multiple marine terminals with specialized cargo handling capability, different connectivity to rail and road transportation, and complex network connections it could be valuable to conduct comparative risk assessments of such infrastructure. ...
... One benefit of this approach could be finer detail for estimating retrofit costs. Becker, Hippe, and McLean (2017), for instance, estimated the volume and cost of fill that needed to elevate ports and associated infrastructure 2 meters to accommodate sea level rise by 2100. Applying site-level hypsometry to port terminals and roadways as demonstrated here and may reduce the cost and optimizing the timing and phasing of such adaptations. ...
Continuity of marine port operations and recovery in the event of disaster and flooding are dependent upon planning for acute or chronic disruptions. Ports are developing the capacity to integrate climate change adaptation with strategic planning and making capital investments in infrastructure. Geospatial risk assessments have demonstrated utility for planning marine port terminal facilities. Such assessments have tended to be coarse and comprehensive (whole port cities) or narrow, site-specific and single-hazard approaches (single terminal or site scale). This study develops a methodology for major container port terminals on the Eastern Seaboard of the United States to advance a screening approach to sea level rise, identify exposure to terminals and associated surface transportation, and enable comparative assessment. The study leverages geospatial data, elevation, imagery, transportation databases, tide gauges, and sea level rise projections. The approach extends prior methods to quantify exposure across multiple ports and terminals. Hypsographs and modelled future tidal flooding are derived for each port. Results highlight the need for port planning to develop GIS, monitor sea level rise trends, engage in integrative assessments, and optimize mitigation and adaptation actions. Results show similarities across yet also differentially increasing threats of relative sea level rise and tidal flooding at individual terminals.
... For many ports, adapting to climate change is mainly restricted to the consideration of climate extremes and sea-level rise in the maintenance of operational functionality (e.g. Becker et al., 2017) rather than wider climate issues. However, all four plausible trade scenarios considered here lead to a significant increase in demand for ports and port area by 2050 and the required investment for port expansion dwarfs that required for adaptation of existing ports to sea-level rise. ...
Abstract Port infrastructure is critical to the world's economy and has seen major expansion over the last few decades. In the future there are likely to be further demands for port capacity which will require additional port area while existing ports will need upgrading in response to sea‐level rise to maintain current levels of operability. This analysis considers potential changes to 2050 under four climate‐based scenarios which aim to explore changes in international maritime trade consistent with global temperature increases of 2 °C and 4 °C and the implications of associated sea‐level rise. All scenarios anticipate a significant increase in trade, and a change in distribution across commodities. The demand for port handling areas in 2050 is roughly double to quadruple that of the baseline (2010) across scenarios. The maximum demand occurs under an unmitigated climate and high intensity in commodity movement with a maximum area in 2050 of 5,054km2. The minimum demand (2,510km2) occurs under a scenario of regionalized green energy production and lower material intensity. The total global investment costs for port adaptation to sea‐level rise and provision of new areas are between 223 and 768 billion USD to 2050. These are dominated by the need for new area construction with the adaptation of base year areas to relative sea‐level rise representing a maximum of 6% of total costs globally. Therefore, in addition to adapting existing port areas to sea‐level rise, it is equally or more important to consider provision of new ports.
