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The re-unification of the two Koreas is seen as a potential solution to the aging problem and low fertility, along with the increase in the old population structure of the Republic of Korea. Population structure is an indicator of national competitiveness or growth, but little is known officially about the populations of Democratic People`s Republi...
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Context 1
... shows that the two Koreas are totally different countries in regards to mortality patterns and indicating that medical care and welfare system in North Korea are far worse than South Korea because the south and east types of model life tables (which show the best fits to the mortality of North Korea) are typical mortality patterns for developing countries with a high mortality of infant, children and elderly. The 1993 and 2008 population pyramids clearly address a sharp difference of population structures between the two Koreass ( Figure 2). One more surprising result is that the south type with the best fit for 1993 shows the worst fit to the 2008 mortality data; however, the east type with the second worst fit for 1993 shows the best fit to the 2008 mortality. ...
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... Socio-economic and cultural differences also led to different levels of fertility and mortality, because those factors reflect the quality of life, child nutrition, health care, medical services, and social welfare. Gjonca, Brockmann, and Maier (2000) pointed out that fertility and mortality rates change according to changes in society, and Jeon, Kim, and Park (2015) have shown that the mortality patterns and population structures of the two Koreas are totally different. Therefore, understanding the current and future population structure of North Korea is fundamental to accurately estimate the effect and cost of reunification. ...
... On the North Korean population, there are three main research concerns. One is assessing the reliability of population data in North Korea (Eberstadt and Banister 1992a;Kim et al. 2011;Park 2012;Jeon et al. 2015). The second concern is identifying the population loss due to North Korea's famine (Eberstadt 2001;Goodkind and West 2001;Lee 2004;Park 2012). ...
... Therefore, we consider scenarios for fertility and mortality as described below, assuming no migration in North Korea-except for a negligible number of North Korean refugees. Jeon et al. (2015) assessed the reliability of the two national censuses in 1993 and 2008 of North Korea, and reconstructed the intercensal sex-age-specific populations between the censuses. Population losses related to North Korea's famine were estimated differently among researchers. ...
The Republic of Korea is undergoing both unprecedented, rapid population aging and lowest-low fertility problems. These population trends eventually cause a population decline, manpower decrease, and other related socio-economic problems. Recently, reunification of the two Koreas has been discussed as a possible breakthrough to overcome population problems. This paper first conducts a population projection of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, and then predicts the future population of a reunified Korea under possible scenarios of fertility and mortality. We further examine the population structure of reunified Korea using age-specific populations, aging indices and dependency ratios to investigate population aging and the socio-economic sustainability of the reunified Korea. Based on the projection results, reunification cannot drastically change the aging trend of the Republic of Korea, but can delay the decrease of the working-age population.
... Of course, given limited data sources, we should all acknowledge uncertainty about demographic conditions in North Korea. Indeed, although Goodkind et al. (2011) and Jeon et al. (2015) agree about general levels and trends in North Korean mortality, there are some modest differences in their assumptions. For instance, the former group assumed that life expectancy as reported in the 1993 census was about 3 years too high due to underreporting of deaths -the true life expectancy in 1993 was assumed to be identical to that estimated in 2008. ...
... Despite these modest differences, what is remarkable about these two studies is their agreement about the overall trends of mortality and demographic impact of the famine. Both Goodkind et al. (2011) andJeon et al. (2015) conclude that famine deaths most likely ranged between about 500 and 600 thousand. It is possible that future evidence may lead investigators to question that range of estimates. ...
... Yet, it is only reasonable to question why most studies have failed to explain the causality between the Great Famine and accumulated changes in the population of North Korea. In this regard, a recent study conducted by Korean demographers (Jeon et al., 2015) have several implications on the importance of accurate and reliable data when the study involves such rare and scarce information. This paper explores the changing trends of the population structure in North Korea providing a review of recent studies on demographic issues associated with North Korea and offers suggestions on understanding the post-famine effect on the overall changes in the population of North Korea. ...
... Reliable information and data sources on North Korea are scarce, a series of studies conducted by Korean Demographers (like Jeon et al., 2015) are extremely relevant because they attempt to find answers body of the results from the censuses conducted twice in North Korea are reliable enough to understand the nation's population and for further estimation or analysis. It seems that the ultimate purpose of these studies conducted by South Koreans is to accurately reconstruct the population figure structure of North Korea by examining the proposed models that use available census data from North Korea. ...
... Therefore, it is inevitable for these scholars to develop and secure accurate and reliable information about the population of North Korea. In this respect, the study by Jeon et al. (2015) is meaningful as it made a significant contribution to narrowing the gap between currently available data and required information to prepare for the development of evidence based policy (EBP) for post-reunited Korea. As Jeon et al. (2015), propose in the study, the reunification of two Koreas may resolve certain aspects of social problems associated with demography such as aging or low fertility. ...
The Great Famine may have had a continued impact on the population structure of North Korea even after the crisis subsided ten years ago. However, there is a significant gap between what has been said about the country and what data indicates. This gap seems inevitable mainly because reliable data are seriously lacking and access is restricted for most scholars outside the country. Yet, it is only reasonable to question why most studies have failed to explain the causality between the Great Famine and accumulated changes in the population of North Korea. In this regard, a recent study conducted by Korean demographers (Jeon et al., 2015) have several implications on the importance of accurate and reliable data when the study involves such rare and scarce information. This paper explores the changing trends of the population structure in North Korea providing a review of recent studies on demographic issues associated with North Korea and offers suggestions on understanding the post-famine effect on the overall changes in the population of North Korea.
