Table 3 - uploaded by Qisheng Pan
Content may be subject to copyright.
Source publication
This paper is one of a series of studies by our group on the economic impact of a variety of terrorist attacks in the United States. These studies use either or both of two economic impact models, SCPM (the Southern California Planning Model) and NIEMO (the National Interstate Economic Model). This research uses only the latter model and traces the...
Contexts in source publication
Context 1
... diversion impacts by State and sector are shown in Appendix Table 14, the classification of sectors is shown in Appendix Table 15, and the total list of national parks and facilities from which the sample is drawn is given in Appendix Table 16. The results of this scenario are reported in Table 3. ...
Context 2
... consequences, as shown in Table 3, are a marked geographical redistribution of tourist expenditures and their impacts because theme parks are typically located in densely populated urban settings while national parks are usually located in lower-density rural settings. Other substitution scenarios, such as a shift to beach holidays, would also have marked, but very different, geographical impacts, perhaps less consequential because of the relatively high concentration of both theme parks and beaches in Florida and California. ...
Similar publications
The paper models the optimal development strategy of a tourism destination by identifying and analyzing two key economic features: i) the long-term choice of whether to invest in the enhancing of natural and/or cultural resources (which act as common goods in the destination) or to increase the degree of sophistication of the tourism product (here...
Citations
... Some factors influence attendance primarily in a negative way on different levels -from a long-term perspective, they are poor accessibility, high admission fee, and lack of time (Nowacki, 2015); from a short-term perspective, they are, e.g., terrorist attacks (Richardson et al., 2005), devastating weather conditions (Zeng et al., 2005) or epidemics (Su & Lin, 2019;Schmude et al., 2021). In the Taipei Zoo, the outbreak of SARS led to a sudden drop in attendance (Su & Lin, 2019). ...
Attendance is one of the indicators of tourist attractions' success. Zoological gardens are among the most visited tourist attractions. However, there is practically no research on this topic, less so in the post-socialist countries. It is the aim of this article, therefore, to identify, using the example of the Visegrad Four countries (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia), how zoo attendance generally develops and to discuss why it is so. For this purpose, a database of EAZA member zoos in these countries was created. Attendance data was obtained from multiple sources, e.g. from annual reports, the International Zoo Yearbook (IZY) and email communication. It was found that the total attendance has been on the rise since it plummeted at the beginning of the 1990s; Czech zoos went up first and now they are the absolutely most visited, even per capita. The current attendance (2019) to Czech zoos more than doubled compared to the mid-1960s; in Slovakia and Poland it does not reach even 150%. There was an increase of almost 43 % in 2010–2019; the highest one was in Poland. The most visited zoo since 2015 has been the Wrocław Zoo (PL), where an iconic Afrykarium was opened.
... Cró & Martins, 2017;Fourie, Rosselló-Nadal, & Santana-Gellego, 2020;Song et al., 2019). Both natural disasters, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, wildfires, and volcanic eruptions, and human-induced disasters, such as wars, riots, and terrorism, have led to precipitous drops in tourism demand (Richter & Waugh, 1986;Ryan, 1993) with the latter, especially, affecting tourist arrivals and expenditures (Sönmez, Backman, & Allen, 1993), and a decline in visitor numbers (Richardson et al., 2005), followed by a very slow recovery period (Frey, Leuchinger, & Stutzer, 2007). The effects of such perceived threats affect the decision-making of tourists (Sönmez & Graefe, 1998;Walters et al., 2019), who tend to be risk-averse, especially given that tourism is generally intended to be a pleasurable activity with safe and pleasant destinations sought and personal risk minimized (Song et al., 2019). ...
Previous studies have shown wine tourism destinations to remain resilient in the face of both natural and anthropogenic security threats. This has been attributed, especially in the case of the latter, to their low population density rural locations being perceived as safer than more densely populated urban areas. The outbreak of COVID19 in late 2019, which had become a global pandemic by early 2020, decimated the tourism industry and showed that previous perceptions of safety may no longer hold true. This research analyzes the influence of this health-related security threat, i.e., COVID-19, on wine tourism from a winery perspective. A sample of 228 wineries in wine-producing countries, surveyed during October 2020, were analyzed. Results show that wine tourism has been negatively affected by the pandemic, despite the relative ease of outdoor gathering and social distancing. Likewise, results exhibit geographically asymmetric effects, indicating that New World wineries, which generally have a more developed tourism infrastructure, were more likely to perceive COVID19's impact on wine tourism as more severe than Old World wineries. Managerial implications for wineries are also discussed.
... The negative effect of terrorism on tourism demand is well documented: sharp reduction in tourist arrivals and expenditures in the incident regions (Sönmez, Backman, and Allen, 1993), significant decline in the numbers of visitors (Richardson et al., 2005), followed by a very slow process of recovery (Frey, Luechinger, and Stutzer, 2007). Some destinations can also benefit from certain terror events (Araña and León, 2008) because tourists tend to replace risky destinations with safer ones when there is a threat of terrorism (Sönmez, 1998). ...
In this article, we use attendance data from La Cité du Vin , a wine museum in the city of Bordeaux, to assess the impact of the recent wave of terror that affected France on wine tourism. We use recent count regression estimation techniques suited for time series data to build a prediction model of the demand for attendance at this museum. We conclude that the institution lost about 5,000 visitors over 426 days, during which 14 successive terrorist attacks took place. This corresponds to almost 1% of the total number of visitors in the sample period. (JEL Classifications: L83, Z30)
... A linear trend model based on the Holt-Winters time-series approach is used to estimate coefficients that change gradually over the periods (Winters 1960;Roberts 1982;Chatfield 1978). The estimated coefficients depend on industrial data for previous periods and exponentially declining weights as applied in Park et al. (2008Park et al. ( , 2006, Richardson et al. (2007Richardson et al. ( , 2014, Gordon et al. (2007), and elsewhere. Data were analyzed using SAS/STAT® software. ...
This study suggests a new framework that empirically quantifies the temporally disaggregate economic impacts. Utilizing only secondary data, including post-event information on concurrent demand and value-added changes in the wake of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the framework is used to identify the technological changes in production that actually occurred after a major disruption. Two methodologies are developed for the framework and data analysis: a quasi-experimental model and an economic model. The Holt–Winters time-series approach is used to estimate normal economic trends under the assumption that the two hurricanes had not occurred, and the results are compared to actual trends. The gaps between the estimated and actual trends represent the direct impacts. We utilized the flexible national interstate economic model to construct a month-to-month supply-side version of the national interstate economic model and measure the total economic impacts of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita by month, state and industry, including adaptations. The new framework, which provides estimates of economic impact adaptation process and resilient results, refines the often substantially overstated impacts provided by the application of conventional economic models. The suggested approach can be used to address questions about the effects of time, distance, and industry linkages, and hence the dynamics of conflict activities.
... Thereby, the input-output framework can be used to study one single area in isolation, or it can be applied to study economic connections in one or more precincts (Miller and Blair, 2009). Richardson et al. (2005) for example, used a national interstate economic model to analyse the economic impact of terrorist attacks on America's more prominent theme parks, recognising that even a major terrorist attack on amusement parks will not ruin American vacation habits. ...
The desire to understand business cycle fluctuations, trade interdependencies and co-movement has a long tradition in economic thinking. From input-output economics to business cycle theory, researchers aimed to find appropriate answers from an empirical as well as a theoretical perspective. This thesis empirically analyses how the production structure of the global economy and several states developed over time, what their distributional properties are and if there are network specific metrics that allow identifying structurally important nodes, on a global, national and sectoral scale. For this, the World Input-Output Database was used, and different statistical methods were applied. Empirical evidence is provided that the importance of the Eastern hemisphere in the global production network has increased significantly between 2000 and 2014. Moreover, it was possible to show that the sectoral eigenvector centrality indices on a global level are power law distributed, providing evidence that specific national sectors exist which are more critical to the world economy than others while serving as a hub within the global production network. However, further findings suggest, that global production cannot be characterised as a scale-free network.
... We designate the resulting 47-sector system ''the USC Sectors.'' NIEMO has been applied in a variety of economic impact studies (Richardson et al. 2007; Park et al. 2007). The following paragraphs and equations summarize the model. ...
This book develops a national economic impact model to estimate the effects of simulated terrorist attacks and natural disasters on individual US States and economic sectors. The model, called NIEMO (The National Interstate Economic Model) looks at interindustry relationships and interregional trade. It is highly disaggregated making the model very accurate. The authors examine potential attack targets including theme parks, sporting events, bridges and tunnels in the national highway system as well as attempts to shoot down airplanes or spread foot-and-mouth disease. Covered natural disasters are almost all real world: Hurricane Katrina, the Joplin Tornado, the Gulf Oil Spill and Hurricane Sandy. The effects on State economies caused by the closing international borders in response to a global pandemic is also examined.
... REAP, 2009) and terrorism (e.g. Gordon et al., 2009). ...
This paper introduces the development of scenario planning for sustainable tourism, from the 1970s to the present day. It outlines the links between scenario planning and forecasting, its role as a business-planning tool generally, and its use in tourism for destination planning and advocacy. The prominent role of models is shown and the evolution from the first generation of forecast-focused models of the 1980s to the new generation of complex, integrative, hierarchical, dynamic and even adaptive models of today is discussed. The paper introduces a series of new scenario planning papers that cover a range of subjects including theorising scenario analysis, counterfactual scenario planning, green economy support systems, climate change scenarios (for ski and coastal tourism), destination environmental footprint scenario tools and transition management as a tool for scenario building.
... We designate the resulting 47-sector system ''the USC Sectors.'' NIEMO has been applied in a variety of economic impact studies (Richardson et al. 2007; Park et al. 2007). ...
The agricultural sector is highly vulnerable to bioterrorism attacks with the potential for severe economic consequences. This article presents estimates of state-by-state total economic impacts of a hypothetical agroterrorism attack that uses foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) pathogens, which is one of the most contagious animal diseases and can be easily weaponized. The authors estimate the economic impacts across the U.S. states by applying the National Interstate Economic Model (NIEMO), a multiregional input output (MRIO) model. Total economic impacts range from $23 billion to $34 billion. The overwhelming sources of the losses are due to domestic and international demand cuts. The results of this research highlight the point that the economic impacts are nationwide, regardless of the location of the attack because of large-scale export losses.
... We then used the Flexible National Interstate Economic Model (FlexNIEMO) to construct month-to-month supply-side versions of NIEMO. The Holt-Winters approach to estimating the normal economic status using times-series methodology is described in several recent articles (Park et al., 2006a; Park et al. 2006b; Richardson et al., 2007; Gordon et al., 2007). The approach allows the estimated coefficients to change gradually over time, based on data for previous periods and exponentially declining weights. ...
... An article by Park et al. (2007) reports the estimates of the state-by-state impacts of hypothetical terrorist attacks on three major U.S. ports, applying the demand-side version of NIEMO. Also, using NIEMO, Richardson et al. (2007) examined the national and interstate economic impacts of terrorist attacks on major U.S. theme parks. Park, Park, and Nam (2006) reported the economic impacts from foreign export closures resulting from Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy in the State of Washington. ...
... Although there have been debates about the plausibility of supply-side IO models, Dietzenbacher (1997) and Park (2007, forthcoming) show that a supply-driven IO model can reasonably be used in the case of constraints on economic activity. We use the supply-driven NIEMO in the case of imports disturbances (Park 2008;Park et al. 2008) and apply the demand-driven NIEMO to treat export disturbances Park, Park, and Nam 2006;Richardson et al. 2007). Park and Gordon (2005) tested for NIEMO's accuracy and showed that the NIEMO's estimates are plausible while available at low computational cost. ...
In previous research, the economic impacts of temporary shutdowns of the Los Angeles-Long Beach harbors were simulated after a hypothetical terrorist attack, applying the National Interstate Economic Model to estimate state-by-state as well as interindustry impacts. However, the "unpredictable" characteristic of terrorist attacks might not be applicable to the case of a ports shutdown such as the one caused by the lockout of September-October 2002. Market participants can be expected to have contingency plans based on anticipations of a strike or shutdown. Can we identify any of these in terms of the use of alternate ports, in terms of alternate modes or even alternate time periods? The purpose of this study is to examine these questions. The approach is elaborated by testing for the possible effects of trade diversion to other West Coast ports, transportation modes, and intertemporal substitutions. We use data from WISERTrade describing commodity-specific trade for the major West Coast ports before, during, and after the 11-day shutdown of the fall of 2002. Shippers' ability to divert trade is a key ingredient in the economy's ability to withstand attacks and disruptions. The work estimates the impacts on 47 industrial sectors across 50 states (and the District of Columbia). Copyright (c) 2008 Copyright the Authors. Journal compilation (c) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc..
