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National Weather Service regions and locations of FCC monitors within Florida. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0143471.g001
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Background:
Using current climate models, regional-scale changes for Florida over the next 100 years are predicted to include warming over terrestrial areas and very likely increases in the number of high temperature extremes. No uniform definition of a heat wave exists. Most past research on heat waves has focused on evaluating the aftermath of k...
Context in source publication
Context 1
... meteorological thresholds for weather could be local or region-specific [3,4,8], the use of a local or monitor-specific definition of heat wave would exclude many rural and agricultural areas, important target populations for Florida's public health services. Regional heat waves were considered using the seven National Weather Service (NWS) regions in Flor- ida (Fig 1). In this analysis, the Keys region (KEY) was combined with the Miami region (MFL), resulting in six regions. ...
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Abstract Persistent extreme heat events are of growing concern in a climate change context. An increase in the intensity, frequency and duration of heat waves is observed in several regions. Temperature extremes are also influenced by global-scale modes of climate variability. Temperature-Duration-Frequency (TDF) curves, which relate the intensity...
Citations
... Across Florida, pronounced changes in heatwave frequency have occurred throughout the state, most notably in southern Florida and along the I-4 corridor that expands from Tampa to the east of Orlando (Keellings & Waylen, 2014;Leary et al., 2015). Some studies note that areas close to water bodies have an increased probability of extremely high temperatures given that water bodies can regulate daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperature ranges (Behrens et al., 2019;Raghavendra et al., 2019;Schär et al., 2004). ...
This study examines the simulation of the heatwave events over Florida from the integration of two regional climate models (RCMs) at comparatively high resolution (at 10 km grid spacing) for two decades of the current climate (1986–2005) followed by their projection in the mid‐21st century (2041–2060). The two RCMs are coupled ocean–atmosphere (CRSM) and atmosphere only (URSM), which are forced at the lateral boundaries by the corresponding simulation of the Community Climate System Model v4 (CCSM4) for both the atmosphere and the ocean. The analysis reveals a reasonable simulation of the frequency, intensity and characteristic kinematic and thermodynamic features of the heatwave events over Florida from both the RCMs with the differences between URSM and CRSM being insignificant. The future projections (2041–2060) are presented only for URSM since the projected differences from CRSM were insignificant. We found the projected change of higher frequency ranging between 20 to over 50% increase relative to the late 20th‐century frequency of heatwave events. Similarly, the projections suggest a broadening of the season of their occurrence by over 2 months. These projected changes are associated with a projected increase in the mean surface temperature, a slight increase of surface humidity but with a mean reduction of surface relative humidity, and a westward dislocation of the North Atlantic Subtropical High.
... Furthermore, it must also be borne in mind that globally minimum temperatures (nighttime) have increased more than daytime temperatures [42,61] and a reasonably symmetric warming of minimum and maximum extremes has been detected at a European level [62]. For these reasons, a comprehensive approach to the HW calculation should also take the cooling effect at night into consideration, and not just the maximum temperature or apparent temperature as reported in recent studies [63,64]. The HWHI approach developed in this study is in line with the latest guidelines on HWs and health developed thanks to the joint action of the WMO and the WHO [14]. ...
Heatwaves (HWs) are one of the "natural" hazards with the greatest impact worldwide in terms of mortality and economic losses, and their effects may be exacerbated in large urban areas. For these reasons, more detailed analyses of urban HW trends represent a priority that cannot be neglected. In this study, HW trends were investigated during the warmest period of the year (May-September) by using a slightly improved version of the EuroHEAT HW definition applied on long meteorological time-series (36-year period, 1980-2015) collected by weather stations located in the capitals of the 28 European Union member countries. Comparisons between two 18-year sub-periods (1980-1997 vs. 1998-2015) were carried out and a city-specific HW hazard index (HWHI), accounting for the main HW characteristics, was proposed. Most of the capitals revealed significant positive trends of the majority of HW hazard characteristics and substantial HWHI increases were observed during the sub-period 1998-2015, especially in the central-eastern and southeastern cities. Conversely, minor HWHI increases were observed in most of the northern capitals and opposite situations were even observed in several northern and especially southwestern cities. The results of this study represent a support for planning urban HW-related mitigation and adaptation strategies with the priority given to the southeastern cities.
... For Florida, 40 years of maximum daily heat index data from 43 Florida weather monitors were used to establish climate norms. Using these norms, regional heat waves occurring during 2005-2012 have been established [8,9]. These heat waves were defined using Florida's National Weather Service (NWS) regions (Figure 1), combining the small Keys region (KEY) and the Miami region (MFL) to avoid estimation issues due to small counts. ...
... Leary et al. [9] were the first to consider and compare multiple methods of imputing missing exposure data for heat waves and was only the second to consider any missing data for heat wave research [9,13]. They [9] showed that the identification of heat waves changed, when considering different imputation methods for missing heat index values. ...
... Leary et al. [9] were the first to consider and compare multiple methods of imputing missing exposure data for heat waves and was only the second to consider any missing data for heat wave research [9,13]. They [9] showed that the identification of heat waves changed, when considering different imputation methods for missing heat index values. ...
(1) Background: To demonstrate the potential effects of missing exposure data and model choice on public health conclusions concerning the impact of heat waves on heat-related morbidity. (2) Methods: Using four different methods to impute missing exposure data, four statistical models (case-crossover, time-series, zero-inflated, and truncated models) are compared. The methods are used to relate heat waves, based on heat index, and heat-related morbidities for Florida from 2005-2012. (3) Results: Truncated models using maximum daily heat index, imputed using spatio-temporal methods, provided the best model fit of regional and statewide heat-related morbidity, outperforming the commonly used case-crossover and time-series analysis methods. (4) Conclusions: The extent of missing exposure data, the method used to impute missing exposure data and the statistical model chosen can influence statistical inference. Further, using a statewide truncated negative binomial model, statistically significant associations between heat-related morbidity and regional heat index effects were identified.
