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The series of mutations that cause brain cells to spontaneously and randomly die leading to Alzheimer's disease (AD) is modelled. The prevalence of AD as a function of age in males and females is calculated from two very different mutation models of brain cell death. Once the prevalence functions are determined, the number of people with AD in any...
Citations
... The model used here is a more sophisticated version of the one developed for describing cancers in reference [1] and is completely described in the appendix here for the convenience of the readers. This mutation model constructed here was also used to describe the transition from HIV infection to AIDS [2] and the development of Alzheimers disease [3]. ...
Natural immunity to breast and prostate cancers is predicted by a novel, saturated ordered mutation model fitted to USA (SEER) incidence data, a prediction consistent with the latest ideas in immunosurveillance. For example, the prevalence of natural immunity to breast cancer in the white female risk population is predicted to be 76.5%; this immunity may be genetic and, therefore, inherited. The modeling also predicts that 6.9% of white females are born with a mutation necessary to cause breast cancer (the hereditary form) and, therefore, are at the highest risk of developing it. By contrast, 16.6% of white females are born without any such mutation but are nonetheless susceptible to developing breast cancer (the sporadic form). The modeling determines the required number of ordered mutations for a cell to become cancerous as well as the mean time between consecutive mutations for both the sporadic and hereditary forms of the disease. The mean time between consecutive breast cancer mutations was found to vary between 2.59 - 2.97 years, suggesting that such mutations are rare events and establishing an upper bound on the lifetime of a breast cell. The prevalence of immunity to breast cancer is predicted to be 79.7% in Blacks, 86.5% in Asians, and 85.8% in Indians. Similarly, the prevalence of immunity to prostate cancer is predicted to be 67.4% for Whites, 50.5% for Blacks, 77.7% for Asians, and 78.6% for Indians. It is of paramount importance to delineate the mechanism underlying immunity to these cancers.
