Table 2 - uploaded by Daniel Finke
Content may be subject to copyright.
Model fit statistics and comparison
Source publication
This article analyses the extent to which governmental positions on European integration originate from domestic politics. In contrast to previous studies, I apply a longitudinal research design that allows for an empirical analysis of the domestic dynamics that govern position formation. I use advanced statistical measurement techniques to compare...
Context in source publication
Context 1
... parameters of each treaty are constrained to be identical across IGCs. Table 2 summarizes the model's predictive power in comparison with the null model (chance) and a two-dimensional model. The one-dimensional model predicts roughly 64% of the cases correctly, and according to the log-likelihood and Aikaike's Information Criterion (AIC) it significantly beats the null model. ...
Similar publications
Wearing masks reduces the spread of COVID-19, but compliance with mask mandates varies across individuals, time, and space. Accurate and continuous measures of mask wearing, as well as other health-related behaviors, are important for public health policies. This article presents a novel approach to estimate mask wearing using geotagged Twitter ima...
Citations
... National parliaments, for example, constrain governments' room to maneuver in EU-level negotiations (Winzen, 2012). And while it makes sense to treat these different sources of domestic preferences separately for analytical reasons, more often than not they will interact with each other to jointly influence national negotiating positions (Finke, 2009). ...
Analyzing international negotiations among the member states of the European Union raises a number of analytical issues, especially in unusual circumstances such as the Eurozone crisis. Our article discusses these issues in the light of existing theory and informed by the empirical analyses assembled in this special issue. ‘National preferences’ or ideal points of the governments involved are driven by their domestic socio-economic and political conditions and institutions, the dimensionality of the negotiations, and strategic considerations. We then discuss how national preferences, states’ bargaining power, the strategic and institutional bargaining context, and the bargaining dynamics jointly influence the bargaining outcome. Examples from European negotiations in the context of the Eurozone crisis illustrate both the complexity of the process and the value of serious, theoretically informed, empirical analysis.
... In broad terms, empirical research has found that public opinion has an impact on government policies (Schmitt and Thomassen 2000;Carruba 2001;Hooghe 2003;Hooghe and Marks 2009) 4 and that the presence of referendums and PR electoral systems have been found to be empirically correlated with closer congruence (Finke 2009;Hug and König 2002). Beyond these two potential causes, three more candidates are selected based on their relative prominence in the literature. ...
... Does the use of referendums produce congruence between voters and governments? Several scholars contend that governments that are forced to consider the ultimate judgment of the treaty by the median voter are more in line with public opinion on EU integration (Hug and König 2002;Finke 2009;Christin and Hug 2002;Steenbergen, Edwards, and de Vries 2007). If party elites align their views with voter preferences, we should expect that these demands are transmitted further through the political system, resulting in national positions that more closely reflect voter views when policies have to be ratified in a referendum. ...
... One of the key insights of principal-agent theory as it relates to the study of parliamentary systems is that we should expect that agent (executive) shirking should decrease when the principal (parliament) possesses powerful control mechanisms (Strøm 2000;Müller and Strøm 2000;Saalfeld 2000;Finke 2009). In parliamentary systems, once a government cabinet is appointed, it can be difficult for parliament to control the government and therefore strong committee oversight can potentially be an effective means to control the government (Strøm 2000;Müller and Strøm 2000;Saalfeld 2000;Finke 2009). ...
This article explores the practical challenges one faces when combining qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) and process tracing (PT) in a manner that is consistent with their underlying assumptions about the nature of causal relationships. While PT builds on a mechanism-based understanding of causation, QCA as a comparative method makes claims about counterfactual causal relationships. Given the need to ensure alignment between the ontological understandings of causation that underlie a method and methodological practice, the different ontological foundations result in methodological guidelines that contradict each other, forcing the analyst to choose whether to be more in alignment with one or the other method. This article explores the implications of contrasting guidelines in a practical case study, where a QCA for sufficiency is followed by two PT case studies of positive cases.
... Immerhin wird die Ausübung souveräner Außenpolitik als die Kernkompetenz nationaler Regierungen und überdies als eine der letzten "core state power" (Genschel und Jachtenfuchs 2013), die den EU-Staaten im Zuge der Europäischen Integration verblieben ist, definiert. Der Frage nach der Bedeutung von Parteipolitik für die Gestaltung nationaler Außenpolitik im Allgemeinen und der Europapolitik im Speziellen wurde in den letzten Jahren jedoch immer mehr Aufmerksamkeit gewidmet (Broz 2005;Finke 2009; Kaarbo und Beasley 2008;Kaarbo und Lantis 2003;Leuffen 2007;Milner 1997;Milner und Tingley 2010;Risse-Kappen 1991). In Deutschland wurde hierbei insbesondere die rot-grüne Außen-und Europapolitik der Regierung Schröder (1998Schröder ( -2005 stark diskutiert (siehe z. ...
Der Beitrag untersucht die Außen- und Europapolitik der grün-roten Landesregierung Baden-Württembergs unter Winfried Kretschmann. Dazu werden theoretisch zwei Strategien, wie Länder ihre außenpolitischen Ziele realisieren können, differenziert: Indirekt über den Bundesrat, und direkt durch die Präsenz auf EU-Ebene sowie über bi-/multinationale Partnerschaften. Empirisch werden die außenpolitischen Wahlziele der Parteien, der grün-rote Koalitionsvertrag und das tatsächliche Regierungshandeln analysiert und mit der Politik der CDU-geführten Vorgängerregierungen verglichen. Dabei zeigt sich, dass trotz neuer Akzente, z. B. der stärkeren Betonung von Nachhaltigkeit und Zivilgesellschaft, unter Grün-Rot kein fundamentaler Wandel in der Außen- und Europapolitik Baden-Württembergs stattgefunden hat.
... those institutional rules which governdecision-making in the EU. 33 The item discrimination parameters listed in Table 4.1 indicate that the expansion of jurisdictions is the main dimension, comprising most reform issues (see also, Hix and Crombez 2005;Finke 2009Finke , 2010. In addition to the expansion of jurisdictions in numerous policy areas, this dimension also includes the extended application of the co-decision procedure, the increased power of the ECJ, the definition of subsidiarity, and the right of legislative initiative for the EP. ...
For decades the European Union tried changing its institutions, but achieved only unsatisfying political compromises and modest, incremental treaty revisions. In late 2009, however, the EU was successfully reformed through the Treaty of Lisbon.Reforming the European Unionexamines how political leaders ratified this treaty against all odds and shows how this victory involved all stages of treaty reform negotiations--from the initial proposal to referendums in several European countries. The authors emphasize the strategic role of political leadership and domestic politics, and they use state-of-the-art methodology, applying a comprehensive data set for actors' reform preferences. They look at how political leaders reacted to apparent failures of the process by recreating or changing the rules of the game. While domestic actors played a significant role in the process, their influence over the outcome was limited as leaders ignored negative referendums and plowed ahead with intended reforms. The book's empirical analyses shed light on critical episodes: strategic agenda setting during the European Convention, the choice of ratification instrument, intergovernmental bargaining dynamics, and the reaction of the German Council presidency to the negative referendums in France, the Netherlands, and Ireland.
... (t g ): To calculate the governmental expected gains from the constitutional treaty, we use data of the DOSEI project 5 that gathered the national positions on the 65 reform issues which were negotiated at the IGC 2003/4 (König and Finke 2007). Instead of calculating the total distance of all reform issues, we use item response analysis to reduce the set of issues to a latent two-dimensional conflict space (Finke 2009). To calculate governments' expected gains in this two-dimensional space, we determine the distances between positions of the member states, the location of the status quo and the constitutional proposal. ...
Many empirical studies are ambiguous about whether good formal institutions are conducive to subjective well-being or not. Possibly, this ambiguity is caused by cross-section models that do not account for unobserved cultural and institutional effects. Using the World Value Survey 1980-2005, this paper supports a positive relation in a country panel framework that accounts for unobserved, time-invariant country heterogeneity. This study also shows that using supra-national region dummies (by geography or language) in a country-random effects model appears to be a sufficient substitution for omitted country fixed effects.
... In broad terms, empirical research has found that public opinion has an impact on government policies (Schmitt and Thomassen 2000;Carruba 2001;Hooghe 2003;Hooghe and Marks 2009) 4 and that the presence of referendums and PR electoral systems have been found to be empirically correlated with closer congruence (Finke 2009;Hug and König 2002). Beyond these two potential causes, three more candidates are selected based on their relative prominence in the literature. ...
... Does the use of referendums produce congruence between voters and governments? Several scholars contend that governments that are forced to consider the ultimate judgment of the treaty by the median voter are more in line with public opinion on EU integration (Hug and König 2002;Finke 2009;Christin and Hug 2002;Steenbergen, Edwards, and de Vries 2007). If party elites align their views with voter preferences, we should expect that these demands are transmitted further through the political system, resulting in national positions that more closely reflect voter views when policies have to be ratified in a referendum. ...
... One of the key insights of principal-agent theory as it relates to the study of parliamentary systems is that we should expect that agent (executive) shirking should decrease when the principal (parliament) possesses powerful control mechanisms (Strøm 2000;Müller and Strøm 2000;Saalfeld 2000;Finke 2009). In parliamentary systems, once a government cabinet is appointed, it can be difficult for parliament to control the government and therefore strong committee oversight can potentially be an effective means to control the government (Strøm 2000;Müller and Strøm 2000;Saalfeld 2000;Finke 2009). ...
This article explores practical issues relating to the use of Process Tracing (PT) after a fuzzy-set QCA of sufficiency, using a case study of congruence between voter views and governmental positions within the EU. The paper points to three particular methodological lessons learned in a practical application of the analytical two-step combination of QCA and PT. First, the value-added of the combination of QCA and PT is greater than the sum of parts. We find the well-known advantage of nesting a PT case study post cross-case analysis, where it enables us to detect a lack of a causal relationship in correlations found with cross-case techniques. Second, at the theoretical level the conjunctions of conditions found in a QCA analysis of sufficiency do not always translate into a theory of a causal mechanism that can plausibly produce the outcome. When re-conceptualizing a given conjunction of conditions into a causal mechanism, one or more conditions tend to fall out of the active part of the mechanism, acting more as background conditions. This is particularly the case as regards the negation of conditions. The consequence of this is that the PT of causal mechanisms post-QCA tends to focus on the causal impact of a smaller number of conditions that the full conjunction, meaning that we in effect are not analyzing exactly the same causes in the cross-case (QCA) and within-case (PT) analyses. Third, individual PT case studies only enable within-case inferences to be made. By adopting a typical case strategy, inferences can be made to the rest of the set of members of causal conjunctions and outcomes, but given the problem of causal heterogeneity at the level of mechanisms, we need to very cautious doing so. I argue that multiple PT tests should be employed in order to update our confidence in whether a given mechanism is present across all typical cases. However, even if this can be done, we are only sheding light on a small number of the cases in the full population of the outcome. For example, we cannot really say anything about the majority of cases that are members of the outcome but not the conjunctions, nor about all of the non-member cases. There are often a very small number of cases that are members of all of the conditions for a given conjunction, understood as typical cases. However, if we want to analyze whether there is empirical evidence that updates our confidence that a given conjunction actually produced the outcome, we choose these typical cases for PT. Yet this only enables us to update our confidence about causal relationships for the handful of other typical cases, leaving the mechanisms that produce the outcome or its negation in the rest of the population unstudied. Given the very onerous data requirements when engaging in ‘good’ PT, in most research we can undertake two or three PT case studies at most, especially when presented in article form. This means that if we exclusively rely on PT post-cross case analysis, we are prevented from saying much about the rest of the population of a given phenomenon. The article proceeds in four steps. First, the literature on congruence is discussed, showing that while existing scholarship has shed light on individual factors that co-vary with levels of congruence, we are in the dark regarding whether factors act in isolation with each other or only as part of conjunctions. To explore possible conjunctions, the paper then develops a fuzzy-set QCA analysis aimed at detecting conjunctions of causal conditions that produce the theoretical phenomenon – by itself a major contribution to the existing substantive literature. The analysis finds that in comparison to existing research, there are two distinct causal conjunctions that can produce congruence between voter views and governmental positions: a ‘referendum’ conjunction and a ‘domestic debate’ conjunction composed of several conditions each. The conjunctions form the basis of theory testing PT, where causal mechanisms based on each of the two causal conjunctions are conceptualized, operationalized, and tested empirically. The article then proceeds to test a typical case of each conjunction by first re-conceptualizing them as causal mechanisms, exploring the issues relating to challenges of translating conjunctions of conditions into mechanisms. The PT case studies find evidence that suggests that a referendum mechanism is actually present in the Irish case (1996-97 IGC), whereas there is little evidence suggesting that the domestic debate mechanism as conceptualized is operating in the second case (Austria in the 1996-97 IGC), suggesting the need for theoretical revision of the domestic debate mechanism.
In 2020, the German government supported the COVID-19 recovery fund ‘Next Generation EU’, which according to many observers is breaking with the taboo of joint EU debt liability. In this article, we analyse whether this decision marks a programmatic shift towards fiscal integration, taken in isolation by the Chancellor, or whether it can be reconciled with higher-level principles that guided the Chancellor’s previous European policies? Our analysis builds on a synthetic framework combining a multi-level principal-agent account with ideational components. The empirical analysis of Bundestag debates and original public opinion data reveal that the support for ‘Next Generation EU’ neither breaks with the Chancellor’s established ‘conservational-pragmatic’ approach to EU policy-making, nor separates the Chancellor from the preferences of the Bundestag and the public. Content analyses show how the government and its supporting camp in the Bundestag justified the apparent policy shift, underlining a strong agreement towards strengthening the EU in times of an unseen crisis, while at the same time revealing some noteworthy partisan differences.
The idea that EU treaties have become too difficult to amend is a recurring one. This article explores changing national constitutional rules and norms in the consent stage of EU treaty making in twenty-eight Member States between 1950 and 2016 asking how parliaments, people and courts came to be much more significant for consent, what the consequences of this shift are, and offering some tentative proposals as to how the challenges this raises could be addressed. EU treaty making has become more complex, but we argue that treaties should be more rather than less difficult to amend where concerns over two-level legitimacy rather than two-level games predominate.
Die Exekutivlastigkeit des europäischen Mehrebenensystems gibt immer wieder Anlass zu der Vermutung, nationale Regierungen hätten die europäische Integration zur Schaffung neuer, dem Einfluss nicht-gouvernementaler Akteure und dem demokratischen Rechtfertigungsdruck weitgehend entzogener Entscheidungsarenen genutzt (Wolf 2000, S. 117; Mair 2005, S. 4, 2013, S. 99). Auf diesem Weg hätten sie die „sie bindenden gesellschaftlichen Zügel zu lockern“ (Moravcsik 1997, S. 212) und ihre „Handlungsfähigkeit gegenüber binnengesellschaftlichen Strukturen und Kräften zu bewahren“ versucht (Rieger 1995, S. 361). Aus der Perspektive dieser in der staatszentrierten Europaforschung kursierenden These scheint das seit den 1990er Jahren diskutierte EU-Demokratiedefizit (Follesdal und Hix 2006) letztlich nicht als „Betriebsunfall“ der europäischen Einigung, sondern als wesentlicher Bestandteil des institutionellen Designs der EU (Moravcsik 1997, S. 213) und intendierte Folge einer „abgekarteten Strategie“ nationaler Regierungen. Während die skizzierte These in der Literatur unterschiedliche konturiert ist, konvergieren ihre Ausprägungen in der Annahme, die europäische Integration sei nicht allein, aber auch Produkt einer Strategie nationaler Regierungen zur Immunisierung gegen Mitwirkungsansprüche innerstaatlicher Akteure. Dieser Literaturbericht stellt konzeptionelle Überlegungen zur Immunisierungsstrategie dar, nennt methodische Herausforderungen ihrer empirischen Analyse und diskutiert einschlägige Studien. Insgesamt zeigt er, dass es nicht an Referenzen auf die Immunisierungsstrategie, wohl aber an Analysen mangelt, die die Plausibilität dieser Annahme systematisch prüfen. Zugleich wird deutlich, dass die These exekutiver Immunisierungsbestrebungen eine fruchtvolle Heuristik ist, die den Blick für in der Integrations- und Europäisierungsforschung bislang nicht hinreichend ausgeleuchtete Phänomene schärft.
